Lawrence Freedman
@ldfreedman.bsky.social
Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London. Latest Book Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine. Substack Comment is Freed https://samf.substack.com/
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
New post just out:
"The Reality Trap"
On Reform's struggles running councils.
What it tells us about how they'd fare if they won a general elections. And about how broken our system of local government is.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
"The Reality Trap"
On Reform's struggles running councils.
What it tells us about how they'd fare if they won a general elections. And about how broken our system of local government is.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
The Reality Trap
Reform's struggles in local government
open.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 9:06 AM
New post just out:
"The Reality Trap"
On Reform's struggles running councils.
What it tells us about how they'd fare if they won a general elections. And about how broken our system of local government is.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
"The Reality Trap"
On Reform's struggles running councils.
What it tells us about how they'd fare if they won a general elections. And about how broken our system of local government is.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
Continuing his exploration into what Reform might be do as a national government, Sam looks into the difficulties already faced in local government. He also points out the challenge any party faces when options are so constrained. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/the-realit...
The Reality Trap
Reform's struggles in local government
samf.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Continuing his exploration into what Reform might be do as a national government, Sam looks into the difficulties already faced in local government. He also points out the challenge any party faces when options are so constrained. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/the-realit...
Prospects for ending war in Ukraine, future of Russia, role of China, use of small-yield nuclear weapons, future of defence industry - answering questions put by subscribers (£/free trial). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?
Will Russians continue to support the war? Will 2026 be a crunch year? Possibility of Ukrainian counter-attack?
More answers to your questions.
open.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Prospects for ending war in Ukraine, future of Russia, role of China, use of small-yield nuclear weapons, future of defence industry - answering questions put by subscribers (£/free trial). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
New post just out:
Will the Greens' surge continue?
Should Starmer sack Morgan McSweeney? Will Trump run for a third term?
Answering lots of your questions.
Here's what I cover
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
Will the Greens' surge continue?
Should Starmer sack Morgan McSweeney? Will Trump run for a third term?
Answering lots of your questions.
Here's what I cover
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
November 11, 2025 at 8:39 AM
New post just out:
Will the Greens' surge continue?
Should Starmer sack Morgan McSweeney? Will Trump run for a third term?
Answering lots of your questions.
Here's what I cover
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
Will the Greens' surge continue?
Should Starmer sack Morgan McSweeney? Will Trump run for a third term?
Answering lots of your questions.
Here's what I cover
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Great summary from Sam of just how dire a state the criminal justice system is in — and the massive political and human risks that creates. We go through all the facts and figures in our Public Services Performance Tracker:
November 8, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Great summary from Sam of just how dire a state the criminal justice system is in — and the massive political and human risks that creates. We go through all the facts and figures in our Public Services Performance Tracker:
Sam illuminates the dire state of the criminal justice system and why it has to be a priority for reform. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/flashing-red?
Flashing Red
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list"
samf.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Sam illuminates the dire state of the criminal justice system and why it has to be a priority for reform. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/flashing-red?
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
New post just out:
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list".
No part of the public sector is more broken or brings with it greater political risk. As we saw these past two weeks.
It desperately needs a new approach.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list".
No part of the public sector is more broken or brings with it greater political risk. As we saw these past two weeks.
It desperately needs a new approach.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...
Flashing Red
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list"
open.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 8:56 AM
New post just out:
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list".
No part of the public sector is more broken or brings with it greater political risk. As we saw these past two weeks.
It desperately needs a new approach.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...
Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list".
No part of the public sector is more broken or brings with it greater political risk. As we saw these past two weeks.
It desperately needs a new approach.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
November 7, 2025 at 9:14 PM
As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Viral video of crying Ukrainian soldier sent to front lines is fake
Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.
Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.
Viral video of crying Ukrainian soldier sent to front lines is fake
Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.
www.xn--mustafaeker-xgc.com.tr
November 7, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Viral video of crying Ukrainian soldier sent to front lines is fake
Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.
Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Just sent out our regular "ask us anything" post so subscribers can submit questions.
Also some of the highlights from the substack over the last few months.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...
Also some of the highlights from the substack over the last few months.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...
Ask us anything
Every few months we offer paying subscribers the chance to ask us questions on any topic you like.
open.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Just sent out our regular "ask us anything" post so subscribers can submit questions.
Also some of the highlights from the substack over the last few months.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...
Also some of the highlights from the substack over the last few months.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
New post just out:
"How to make government work"
We have a guest post from one of the people who built the AI Security Institute on a rare UK success story. With important lessons for the rest of government.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...
"How to make government work"
We have a guest post from one of the people who built the AI Security Institute on a rare UK success story. With important lessons for the rest of government.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...
How to make government work
Lessons from a rare British success story
open.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 8:30 AM
New post just out:
"How to make government work"
We have a guest post from one of the people who built the AI Security Institute on a rare UK success story. With important lessons for the rest of government.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...
"How to make government work"
We have a guest post from one of the people who built the AI Security Institute on a rare UK success story. With important lessons for the rest of government.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
New post just out:
"Who might replace Starmer?"
With pressure growing on the PM, there are a lot of conversations going on in Westminster about who could take over.
Who are the contenders? Who's best placed to win? Would it make any difference?
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
"Who might replace Starmer?"
With pressure growing on the PM, there are a lot of conversations going on in Westminster about who could take over.
Who are the contenders? Who's best placed to win? Would it make any difference?
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
Who might replace Starmer?
As predicted at the start of the summer, the idea that the Prime Minister might not make it through another year is gaining traction.
open.substack.com
November 2, 2025 at 9:09 AM
New post just out:
"Who might replace Starmer?"
With pressure growing on the PM, there are a lot of conversations going on in Westminster about who could take over.
Who are the contenders? Who's best placed to win? Would it make any difference?
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
"Who might replace Starmer?"
With pressure growing on the PM, there are a lot of conversations going on in Westminster about who could take over.
Who are the contenders? Who's best placed to win? Would it make any difference?
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
In which I explain how Trump’s announcement on nuclear testing was based on a misunderstanding of what Russia is up to, and why the US would be unable to start testing immediately even if it made any sense to do so. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
Trump and the Test Ban
A nuclear test in the Nevada desert, 1955.
open.substack.com
November 1, 2025 at 8:50 AM
In which I explain how Trump’s announcement on nuclear testing was based on a misunderstanding of what Russia is up to, and why the US would be unable to start testing immediately even if it made any sense to do so. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
This was very cathartic to write, and I'm grateful to @samfr.bsky.social for giving me the space to try and set out just why the two-child limit must go, and go in its entirety
[mini 🧵]
[mini 🧵]
New post out:
"The worst social policy ever"
Today we have a guest post from @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social on the abomination that is the two-child limit and why Labour need to scrap it ASAP.
Lots of data but also powerful testimony.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
"The worst social policy ever"
Today we have a guest post from @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social on the abomination that is the two-child limit and why Labour need to scrap it ASAP.
Lots of data but also powerful testimony.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
"The worst social policy ever"
We have a couple of bonus guest posts over the next week.
open.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 2:14 PM
This was very cathartic to write, and I'm grateful to @samfr.bsky.social for giving me the space to try and set out just why the two-child limit must go, and go in its entirety
[mini 🧵]
[mini 🧵]
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Cutting child poverty is obviously important as per this polling yesterday from @steveakehurst.bsky.social
Child poverty increasing leads to the biggest loss of govt approval by an election in hyopthetical polling.
Child poverty increasing leads to the biggest loss of govt approval by an election in hyopthetical polling.
October 30, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Cutting child poverty is obviously important as per this polling yesterday from @steveakehurst.bsky.social
Child poverty increasing leads to the biggest loss of govt approval by an election in hyopthetical polling.
Child poverty increasing leads to the biggest loss of govt approval by an election in hyopthetical polling.
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Happy Publication Day and congratulations to Dr. @kschake.bsky.social !
A brilliant scholar of civ-mil relations, her prose is joyful and well crafted, and her narrative, compelling.
This is a foundational, urgently needed text. I cannot recommend more strongly.
www.amazon.com/State-Soldie...
A brilliant scholar of civ-mil relations, her prose is joyful and well crafted, and her narrative, compelling.
This is a foundational, urgently needed text. I cannot recommend more strongly.
www.amazon.com/State-Soldie...
The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States
Amazon.com: The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States eBook : Schake, Kori: Kindle Store
www.amazon.com
October 28, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Happy Publication Day and congratulations to Dr. @kschake.bsky.social !
A brilliant scholar of civ-mil relations, her prose is joyful and well crafted, and her narrative, compelling.
This is a foundational, urgently needed text. I cannot recommend more strongly.
www.amazon.com/State-Soldie...
A brilliant scholar of civ-mil relations, her prose is joyful and well crafted, and her narrative, compelling.
This is a foundational, urgently needed text. I cannot recommend more strongly.
www.amazon.com/State-Soldie...
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Is the Russian economy sufficiently in trouble to lead Putin to reappraise his war strategy? I look at the evidence in my latest post (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/u...?
Ukraine's Theory of Victory
A stalling Russian offensive and a stalling Russian economy
open.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Is the Russian economy sufficiently in trouble to lead Putin to reappraise his war strategy? I look at the evidence in my latest post (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/u...?
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
At lunchtime today, we'll be exploring the policy implications of supporting Ukraine until the end, inspired by @ldfreedman.bsky.social's "Hennessy Lecture".
You can book your place to hear @evieaspinall.bsky.social, @patporter76.bsky.social, @elkeschwarz.bsky.social and @drjamesstrong.bsky.social🔽
You can book your place to hear @evieaspinall.bsky.social, @patporter76.bsky.social, @elkeschwarz.bsky.social and @drjamesstrong.bsky.social🔽
Tomorrow, 28th October at 12:00, tune in to the Mile End Institute's webinar to hear BFPG Director, Evie Aspinall, and fellow panellists discussing Britain's role in Ukraine, and the implications for UK foreign and domestic policy.
Sign up here: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Sign up here: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
October 28, 2025 at 9:14 AM
At lunchtime today, we'll be exploring the policy implications of supporting Ukraine until the end, inspired by @ldfreedman.bsky.social's "Hennessy Lecture".
You can book your place to hear @evieaspinall.bsky.social, @patporter76.bsky.social, @elkeschwarz.bsky.social and @drjamesstrong.bsky.social🔽
You can book your place to hear @evieaspinall.bsky.social, @patporter76.bsky.social, @elkeschwarz.bsky.social and @drjamesstrong.bsky.social🔽
Is the Russian economy sufficiently in trouble to lead Putin to reappraise his war strategy? I look at the evidence in my latest post (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/u...?
Ukraine's Theory of Victory
A stalling Russian offensive and a stalling Russian economy
open.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Is the Russian economy sufficiently in trouble to lead Putin to reappraise his war strategy? I look at the evidence in my latest post (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/u...?
The role played by strong historical memories in shaping a nation’s sense of identity and values, and how these are now challenged by the right, is explored by @samfr.bsky.social. WW2 and its aftermath no longer seem so relevant to younger generations. samf.substack.com/p/never-again
Never again?
Memory entrepreneurship and the radical right’s assault on the postwar order
samf.substack.com
October 26, 2025 at 9:46 AM
The role played by strong historical memories in shaping a nation’s sense of identity and values, and how these are now challenged by the right, is explored by @samfr.bsky.social. WW2 and its aftermath no longer seem so relevant to younger generations. samf.substack.com/p/never-again
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
New post just out:
"Never again?"
On how the radical right are trying to change our collective memory about World War Two as part of their assault on the postwar order.
And why that memory remains a critical defence against nationalism.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/n...
"Never again?"
On how the radical right are trying to change our collective memory about World War Two as part of their assault on the postwar order.
And why that memory remains a critical defence against nationalism.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/n...
Never again?
Memory entrepreneurship and the radical right’s assault on the postwar order
open.substack.com
October 26, 2025 at 8:49 AM
New post just out:
"Never again?"
On how the radical right are trying to change our collective memory about World War Two as part of their assault on the postwar order.
And why that memory remains a critical defence against nationalism.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/n...
"Never again?"
On how the radical right are trying to change our collective memory about World War Two as part of their assault on the postwar order.
And why that memory remains a critical defence against nationalism.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/n...
As the party system fragments in the UK is it time for proportional representation? Sam looks at the options and the implications. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/is-pr-comi...
Is PR coming to the UK?
And what happens if it does?
samf.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 8:47 AM
As the party system fragments in the UK is it time for proportional representation? Sam looks at the options and the implications. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/is-pr-comi...
For the reasons why this is not at all surprising see my post ( £/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/deja-vu-al...
October 21, 2025 at 5:24 PM
For the reasons why this is not at all surprising see my post ( £/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/deja-vu-al...
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
“to give readers new ways of thinking about war in this enthralling and entertaining book”.
Lovely review in Foreign Affairs (and yes, being reviewed in Foreign Affairs feels very grown up indeed) from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/bloo...
Lovely review in Foreign Affairs (and yes, being reviewed in Foreign Affairs feels very grown up indeed) from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/bloo...
Blood and Treasure: The Economics of Conflict From the Vikings to Ukraine
Duncan Weldon gives readers new way of thinking about war in this enthralling and entertaining book.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 21, 2025 at 4:27 PM
“to give readers new ways of thinking about war in this enthralling and entertaining book”.
Lovely review in Foreign Affairs (and yes, being reviewed in Foreign Affairs feels very grown up indeed) from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/bloo...
Lovely review in Foreign Affairs (and yes, being reviewed in Foreign Affairs feels very grown up indeed) from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/bloo...
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
There is no evidence to support claims of a big shift in the US position after the Trump-Putin call. In this post I explain why I don’t think much has changed and my scepticism about the proposed Budapest summit (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/d...?
Déjà Vu All over Again
Donald Trump’s two-and-a-half-hour telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin on 16 October, followed by a claim that he is on course once again to find an end to the Russo-Ukraine War, triggered a pr...
open.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 8:05 AM
There is no evidence to support claims of a big shift in the US position after the Trump-Putin call. In this post I explain why I don’t think much has changed and my scepticism about the proposed Budapest summit (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/d...?