Lawrence Freedman

@ldfreedman.bsky.social

52K followers 110 following 500 posts

Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London. Latest Book Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine. Substack Comment is Freed https://samf.substack.com/

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Sir Lawrence David Freedman, is a British academic, historian and author specialising in foreign policy, international relations and strategy. He has been described as the "dean of British strategic studies" and was a member of the Iraq Inquiry. He is an Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London. .. more

Political science 82%

Sociology 6%

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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 7h

I’d be very surprised if this leads to anything at all. Latest effort by Witkoff to bounce administration to bounce Ukraine into a deal they won’t accept.

Valerie Morkevičius @vmorkevicius.bsky.social · 8h

Seems to be what TASS is saying too...

As if the Kremlin has been taken by surprise by Witkoff's "deal."

Very odd. /1

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Valerie Morkevičius @vmorkevicius.bsky.social · 8h

Seems to be what TASS is saying too...

As if the Kremlin has been taken by surprise by Witkoff's "deal."

Very odd. /1

Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 18h

Latest post returns to the battle for Pokrovsk and the pressure on Kyiv to order a withdrawal. I look at the factors influencing a decision, including the temptation to deny Putin a victory he has already claimed (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/r...?

Retreat, Defeat and the Sunk Cost Fallacy

Ukraine’s choices on Pokrovsk

open.substack.com

Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 3d

Continuing his exploration into what Reform might be do as a national government, Sam looks into the difficulties already faced in local government. He also points out the challenge any party faces when options are so constrained. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/the-realit...

The Reality Trap

Reform's struggles in local government

samf.substack.com

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman, Steve Peers, Tim Bale

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 3d

New post just out:

"The Reality Trap"

On Reform's struggles running councils.

What it tells us about how they'd fare if they won a general elections. And about how broken our system of local government is.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

The Reality Trap

Reform's struggles in local government

open.substack.com

Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 5d

Don’t think the conditions make it possible to mass forces and give them sufficient mobility for a real breakthrough - there is always the risk of an army that has been ground down just collapsing- more likely than a set-piece battle.

Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 6d

Prospects for ending war in Ukraine, future of Russia, role of China, use of small-yield nuclear weapons, future of defence industry - answering questions put by subscribers (£/free trial). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

Will Russians continue to support the war? Will 2026 be a crunch year? Possibility of Ukrainian counter-attack?

More answers to your questions. Following Sam’s answers to his questions here are the answers to mine. Unsurprisingly most of mine are linked in some way to the Russo-Ukraine War and I have tried to answer accordingly accordingly.

Reposts 8 6d

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 8d

New post just out:

Will the Greens' surge continue?
Should Starmer sack Morgan McSweeney? Will Trump run for a third term?

Answering lots of your questions.

Here's what I cover

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Cassia Rowland @cassiarowland.bsky.social · 11d

Great summary from Sam of just how dire a state the criminal justice system is in — and the massive political and human risks that creates. We go through all the facts and figures in our Public Services Performance Tracker:

Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 11d

Sam illuminates the dire state of the criminal justice system and why it has to be a priority for reform. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/flashing-red?

Flashing Red

Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list"

samf.substack.com

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman, Steve Peers, Tim Bale , and 2 more Lawrence Freedman, Steve Peers, Tim Bale, Stephen Jones, Richard Moorhead

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 11d

New post just out:

Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list".

No part of the public sector is more broken or brings with it greater political risk. As we saw these past two weeks.

It desperately needs a new approach.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...

Flashing Red

Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list"

open.substack.com

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 12d

As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

msgundemblog.bsky.social @msgundemblog.bsky.social · 12d

Viral video of crying Ukrainian soldier sent to front lines is fake

Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.

Viral video of crying Ukrainian soldier sent to front lines is fake

Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.

www.xn--mustafaeker-xgc.com.tr

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 13d

Just sent out our regular "ask us anything" post so subscribers can submit questions.

Also some of the highlights from the substack over the last few months.

(Free to read)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...

Ask us anything

Every few months we offer paying subscribers the chance to ask us questions on any topic you like.

open.substack.com

Substack

Ask us anything

Every few months we offer paying subscribers the chance to ask us questions on any topic you like. Just stick your questions in the comments section of this post.

Reposts 2 13d

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman, Anna Vignoles

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 14d

New post just out:

"How to make government work"

We have a guest post from one of the people who built the AI Security Institute on a rare UK success story. With important lessons for the rest of government.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...

How to make government work

Lessons from a rare British success story

open.substack.com

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman, Patrick Dunleavy, Steve Peers , and 3 more Lawrence Freedman, Patrick Dunleavy, Steve Peers, Anand Menon, Steven Fielding, François Heisbourg

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 17d

New post just out:

"Who might replace Starmer?"

With pressure growing on the PM, there are a lot of conversations going on in Westminster about who could take over.

Who are the contenders? Who's best placed to win? Would it make any difference?

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

Who might replace Starmer?

As predicted at the start of the summer, the idea that the Prime Minister might not make it through another year is gaining traction.

open.substack.com

Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 18d

Haven’t watch it yet. Will do soon

Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 18d

In which I explain how Trump’s announcement on nuclear testing was based on a misunderstanding of what Russia is up to, and why the US would be unable to start testing immediately even if it made any sense to do so. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?