Jesse Rothstein
@jrothst.bsky.social
Economist, public policy wonk, professor at UC Berkeley, faculty director of California Policy Lab & Center for Studies in Higher Education
Great thread.
You may have heard that "social security is going to go bankrupt." Many younger people assume social security will not be there for them when they retire. In my latest paper I correct the record. SS is not going bankrupt but we'll need to revisit it soon 🧵
rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...
rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...
“Will Social Security Run Out?” Is the Wrong Question: How Lawmakers Can Protect Beneficiaries and Strengthen OASI
Is Social Security really in crisis? This report examines the OASI Trust Fund, lessons from 1983, and policy options to secure benefits for the future.
rooseveltinstitute.org
January 15, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Great thread.
Reposted by Jesse Rothstein
🚨📢 Call for papers - IV Workshop on Economics of Education, Valle Nevado 🇨🇱⛷️
📅 August 18-21
📍Valle Nevado, Chile
Keynotes by Josh Goodman (
@buwheelock.bsky.social ) and Chris Neilson (Yale)
Submit by March 6 👇
bit.ly/49QSsd3
@joshua-goodman.com @christopherneilson.bsky.social
📅 August 18-21
📍Valle Nevado, Chile
Keynotes by Josh Goodman (
@buwheelock.bsky.social ) and Chris Neilson (Yale)
Submit by March 6 👇
bit.ly/49QSsd3
@joshua-goodman.com @christopherneilson.bsky.social
January 14, 2026 at 6:42 PM
🚨📢 Call for papers - IV Workshop on Economics of Education, Valle Nevado 🇨🇱⛷️
📅 August 18-21
📍Valle Nevado, Chile
Keynotes by Josh Goodman (
@buwheelock.bsky.social ) and Chris Neilson (Yale)
Submit by March 6 👇
bit.ly/49QSsd3
@joshua-goodman.com @christopherneilson.bsky.social
📅 August 18-21
📍Valle Nevado, Chile
Keynotes by Josh Goodman (
@buwheelock.bsky.social ) and Chris Neilson (Yale)
Submit by March 6 👇
bit.ly/49QSsd3
@joshua-goodman.com @christopherneilson.bsky.social
Reposted by Jesse Rothstein
Funding Opportunity!
We are now taking applications for our Early Career Research Awards. These awards provide support to recent PhD earners researching policy and employment issues. Those working in economics, sociology, public policy, political science, and related fields may apply.
#Econsky
We are now taking applications for our Early Career Research Awards. These awards provide support to recent PhD earners researching policy and employment issues. Those working in economics, sociology, public policy, political science, and related fields may apply.
#Econsky
December 19, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Funding Opportunity!
We are now taking applications for our Early Career Research Awards. These awards provide support to recent PhD earners researching policy and employment issues. Those working in economics, sociology, public policy, political science, and related fields may apply.
#Econsky
We are now taking applications for our Early Career Research Awards. These awards provide support to recent PhD earners researching policy and employment issues. Those working in economics, sociology, public policy, political science, and related fields may apply.
#Econsky
Please consider supporting the @capolicylab.bsky.social!
Looking for the perfect gift? A donation to the California Policy Lab for #GivingTuesday will help fuel research that leads to practical solutions — so that programs work better, dollars go further, and more Californians have access to stability and opportunity: capolicylab.org/donate/
December 11, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Please consider supporting the @capolicylab.bsky.social!
Reposted by Jesse Rothstein
Help us welcome Dr. Monique E. Davis (@moniqueedavis-phd.bsky.social) as our newest economist! Dr. Davis holds a Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis–St. Paul. Her work centers on examining structural inequalities between marginalized and privileged groups.
#Econsky
#Econsky
December 10, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Help us welcome Dr. Monique E. Davis (@moniqueedavis-phd.bsky.social) as our newest economist! Dr. Davis holds a Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis–St. Paul. Her work centers on examining structural inequalities between marginalized and privileged groups.
#Econsky
#Econsky
Reposted by Jesse Rothstein
@assameeting.bsky.social attendees, join the Institute, LERA, & @neaecon.bsky.social in celebrating the many contributions of Bill Spriggs to econ profession & policy at a luncheon on Jan 4 and two paper sessions. Search “Spriggs" at https://bit.ly/4ohwkg4 for details
American Economic Association
AREUEA Poster Session Poster Session Hosted By: American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Chair: Lu Han, University of Wisconsin-Madison AEA Poster Session Poster Session Hosted By: American Economic Association AFA PhD Student Poster Session...
aeaweb.org
November 25, 2025 at 4:52 PM
@assameeting.bsky.social attendees, join the Institute, LERA, & @neaecon.bsky.social in celebrating the many contributions of Bill Spriggs to econ profession & policy at a luncheon on Jan 4 and two paper sessions. Search “Spriggs" at https://bit.ly/4ohwkg4 for details
This article is well worth reading.
Since Stephen Miller is in the midst of another of his Aryans-only trantrums, we should note that his family are 20th century immigrants from the shtetl of Antopol (Антопаль) then in the Hrodna gubernia of Russia. Applying his immigration rules, they would all have perished in the Holocaust.
Stephen Miller Is an Immigration Hypocrite. I Know Because I’m His Uncle.
If my nephew’s ideas on immigration had been in force a century ago, our family would have been wiped out.
www.politico.com
November 28, 2025 at 7:58 PM
This article is well worth reading.
I love this languages map! Would love to see one for LA also.
November 25, 2025 at 8:32 PM
I love this languages map! Would love to see one for LA also.
Reposted by Jesse Rothstein
Is the SAT serving the mission of public universities?
CSHE Senior Associate Saul Geiser tackles this question in an op-ed for Inside Higher Ed. Drawing on his ROPS paper, Geiser argues that "treating the test as a neutral measure of merit is an illusion."
www.insidehighered.com/opinion/view...
CSHE Senior Associate Saul Geiser tackles this question in an op-ed for Inside Higher Ed. Drawing on his ROPS paper, Geiser argues that "treating the test as a neutral measure of merit is an illusion."
www.insidehighered.com/opinion/view...
https://www.insidehighered.com/opinion/views/2025/11/24/why-sat-poor-fit-public-universities-opinion]
November 24, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Is the SAT serving the mission of public universities?
CSHE Senior Associate Saul Geiser tackles this question in an op-ed for Inside Higher Ed. Drawing on his ROPS paper, Geiser argues that "treating the test as a neutral measure of merit is an illusion."
www.insidehighered.com/opinion/view...
CSHE Senior Associate Saul Geiser tackles this question in an op-ed for Inside Higher Ed. Drawing on his ROPS paper, Geiser argues that "treating the test as a neutral measure of merit is an illusion."
www.insidehighered.com/opinion/view...
Reposted by Jesse Rothstein
The California Policy Lab provides independent, practical research that helps our government make better decisions and improve more lives. In this interview, Prof. Till von Wachter explains CPL's research showing the LA wildfires impacted people both inside and outside the directly impacted areas.
November 21, 2025 at 3:16 PM
The California Policy Lab provides independent, practical research that helps our government make better decisions and improve more lives. In this interview, Prof. Till von Wachter explains CPL's research showing the LA wildfires impacted people both inside and outside the directly impacted areas.
Reposted by Jesse Rothstein
Tune in to @kqedforum.bsky.social at 9a tmrw to hear me talk rising student loan delinquencies
Tomorrow on @kqedforum.bsky.social: CPL's @evanbwhite.bsky.social will join with @millennialdebt.bsky.social and @jmargetta.bsky.social to discuss the latest on student loans - including a sharp increase in delinquencies: www.kqed.org/forum/201010...
Is The Student Loan Safety Net Unraveling? | KQED
We talk about why California’s student loan delinquency rate is soaring, and how a broken repayment system is pushing borrowers deeper into financial distress.
www.kqed.org
November 4, 2025 at 2:51 AM
Tune in to @kqedforum.bsky.social at 9a tmrw to hear me talk rising student loan delinquencies
Reposted by Jesse Rothstein
@jrothst.bsky.social makes excellent points & language is important. I'm estimating "full employment" ~given~ cruel immigration policy. To measure slack, Fed compares actual labor mkt to estimate of current "full emp" (also dicey language as that estimate generally means UR is high for some groups).
October 30, 2025 at 3:16 PM
@jrothst.bsky.social makes excellent points & language is important. I'm estimating "full employment" ~given~ cruel immigration policy. To measure slack, Fed compares actual labor mkt to estimate of current "full emp" (also dicey language as that estimate generally means UR is high for some groups).
Final note: Of course, this all presumes we know what employment growth has been. We don’t. The Republican failure to pass a budget means that the data aren’t being collected or reported. That makes it much harder to ensure that policy matches to conditions. The Fed can only go on vibes. 7/7
October 30, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Final note: Of course, this all presumes we know what employment growth has been. We don’t. The Republican failure to pass a budget means that the data aren’t being collected or reported. That makes it much harder to ensure that policy matches to conditions. The Fed can only go on vibes. 7/7
So yes, the Fed should take account of this, and not interpret job growth in the low 5 digits as a sign of a catastrophic collapse in demand. But it is nevertheless bad, not good, news and a sign of policy that is not only illegal and inhumane but also bad economics.
October 30, 2025 at 2:56 PM
So yes, the Fed should take account of this, and not interpret job growth in the low 5 digits as a sign of a catastrophic collapse in demand. But it is nevertheless bad, not good, news and a sign of policy that is not only illegal and inhumane but also bad economics.
That is, the slowdown in job growth consistent with full employment is direct evidence that immigrants take jobs that otherwise wouldn’t exist in this country, not jobs that natives would otherwise get. And that our (lawless, inhumane) immigration policy is making us all poorer.
October 30, 2025 at 2:56 PM
That is, the slowdown in job growth consistent with full employment is direct evidence that immigrants take jobs that otherwise wouldn’t exist in this country, not jobs that natives would otherwise get. And that our (lawless, inhumane) immigration policy is making us all poorer.
To the extent there is an economic justification for the immigration crackdown, it has to be that immigrants take jobs that would otherwise be held by native workers. The evidence has long made clear that isn’t true. But if it were, a reduction in immigration wouldn’t reduce employment growth.
October 30, 2025 at 2:56 PM
To the extent there is an economic justification for the immigration crackdown, it has to be that immigrants take jobs that would otherwise be held by native workers. The evidence has long made clear that isn’t true. But if it were, a reduction in immigration wouldn’t reduce employment growth.
But the low employment growth is not good - it is bad. It means that our economy isn’t growing as fast as it otherwise would, and we aren’t getting wealthier the way we otherwise would. It is a sign that the administration’s (lawless, inhumane) immigration policies are making us all poorer.
October 30, 2025 at 2:56 PM
But the low employment growth is not good - it is bad. It means that our economy isn’t growing as fast as it otherwise would, and we aren’t getting wealthier the way we otherwise would. It is a sign that the administration’s (lawless, inhumane) immigration policies are making us all poorer.
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social is (of course) right that we need to recalibrate expectations of what employment growth we can expect in an economy where demand matches supply. If the Fed tried to maintain previous employment growth via monetary policy, it would just create inflation.
October 30, 2025 at 2:56 PM
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social is (of course) right that we need to recalibrate expectations of what employment growth we can expect in an economy where demand matches supply. If the Fed tried to maintain previous employment growth via monetary policy, it would just create inflation.
This is a good thread. But I want to take exception to the naming of low unemployment and low employment growth as “good.” A thread of my own: 1/7
There's a lot of uncertainty about whether the labor market is healthy. Everyone agrees the unemployment rate is low—that's good. But there's disagreement on what good employment growth looks like right now, stemming from wild swings in population due to immigration policy. 🧵of 5
October 30, 2025 at 2:56 PM
This is a good thread. But I want to take exception to the naming of low unemployment and low employment growth as “good.” A thread of my own: 1/7
Reposted by Jesse Rothstein
The California Policy Lab is hiring a Researcher/Senior Researcher, focused on health & safety net in California: capolicylab.org/careers/rese...
October 23, 2025 at 3:42 PM
The California Policy Lab is hiring a Researcher/Senior Researcher, focused on health & safety net in California: capolicylab.org/careers/rese...
Reposted by Jesse Rothstein
More than 330,000 low-income college students in California use #CalFresh to help pay for their groceries. But they may not receive their benefits in November because of the government shutdown. capolicylab.org/news/analysi... #CaLeg
October 24, 2025 at 2:23 PM
More than 330,000 low-income college students in California use #CalFresh to help pay for their groceries. But they may not receive their benefits in November because of the government shutdown. capolicylab.org/news/analysi... #CaLeg
I'd caution against over-relying on that skepticism. That (people find jobs elsewhere) is usually what happens in response to technical change, so I think we should require evidence before concluding that it isn't happening this time.
October 21, 2025 at 6:21 PM
I'd caution against over-relying on that skepticism. That (people find jobs elsewhere) is usually what happens in response to technical change, so I think we should require evidence before concluding that it isn't happening this time.
Interesting - thanks. That does seem like it is cutting things pretty finely. And on top of that, if COVID had any impact on time-to-degree, that would also show up in EPOPs at those ages.
October 21, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Interesting - thanks. That does seem like it is cutting things pretty finely. And on top of that, if COVID had any impact on time-to-degree, that would also show up in EPOPs at those ages.
They do have one graph, their Figure 4, showing total headcounts. But it isn't normalized for population (baby booms and busts do funny things to headcounts by narrow age group), and is based only on a subset of ADP data. I'd like to see more evidence in support. Is there any?
October 21, 2025 at 4:58 PM
They do have one graph, their Figure 4, showing total headcounts. But it isn't normalized for population (baby booms and busts do funny things to headcounts by narrow age group), and is based only on a subset of ADP data. I'd like to see more evidence in support. Is there any?
This is what I am referring to in my second paragraph: They show evidence for specific occupations. That I can believe. But people seem to be jumping from that to "it is a bad time to be a young worker looking for work," and that I'm not seeing.
October 21, 2025 at 4:57 PM
This is what I am referring to in my second paragraph: They show evidence for specific occupations. That I can believe. But people seem to be jumping from that to "it is a bad time to be a young worker looking for work," and that I'm not seeing.