Jesse Rothstein
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jrothst.bsky.social
Jesse Rothstein
@jrothst.bsky.social
20K followers 1.1K following 240 posts
Economist, public policy wonk, professor at UC Berkeley, faculty director of California Policy Lab & Center for Studies in Higher Education
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jrothst.bsky.social
The third graph as an image:
The unemployment rate over time for college graduates, age 20-24 and 25-34, from the FRED site.
October 21, 2025 at 4:46 PM
jrothst.bsky.social
The second graph as an image:
The unemployment rate over time for 16-24 year olds and for age 20+, from the FRED site.
October 21, 2025 at 4:45 PM
jrothst.bsky.social
The graph as an image:
Graph of unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds over time, from the FRED site.
October 21, 2025 at 4:44 PM
jrothst.bsky.social
Here is Baker et al.'s economic policy uncertainty index, showing a sharp, historically large increase since November, with acceleration since February.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPU....
Time series graph of Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the last year, showing a visible increase in November and another one in January/February. From https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXD#. Time series graph of Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the full available history, back to mid-1980s, showing that this year's increase is historically large, comparable to early 2020 or 2007/8. From https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXD#.
March 12, 2025 at 4:26 PM
jrothst.bsky.social
Here's what they say in the pre-analysis plan about the consent process. I read this as indicating that people don't know that they are in the control group, though it is possible that they were told later.
www.socialscienceregistry.org/versions/229...
Quote from pre-analysis plan: "Everyone was informed that they will receive ”$50 or more” each month for three years and that the specific amount will be randomly assigned, but the fact that some partici- pants will receive $1000 each month was not disclosed. This reduces the likelihood that the control group will know they are in the control group, as that knowledge may change their behavior in ways that would bias the results (including differential take up or attrition and a negative reaction to learning one is receiving less than others). Additionally, we did not want the prospect of a large cash transfer to coerce anyone into participating in the study."
December 3, 2024 at 1:16 AM
jrothst.bsky.social
Post a picture you took (no description) to bring some zen to the timeline
Sign on fence in Berkeley, California, with complaints that another sign (not pictured) posted by the Berkeley Historical Plaque Project is inaccurate.
November 17, 2024 at 5:40 PM
jrothst.bsky.social
Sunset over the water in Hawaii
September 2, 2024 at 2:20 AM
jrothst.bsky.social
This sounds *just like* something Obama would say.
Fundraising text message, purportedly from Barack Obama, promising if I just donate $7 it will enable us to "HUMILIATE Trump"
May 17, 2024 at 6:45 PM
jrothst.bsky.social
My letter to the NYT editor. I sent it yesterday; we will see if they run it. I'll put links in this thread.
Letter to the New York Times editor regarding David Leonhardt's "The Misguided War on the SAT." First paragraph: "David Leonhardt's, "The Misguided War on the SAT," argues that eliminating standardized tests from college admissions "harm[s] vulnerable people," denying some "the opportunity to change their lives - and change society - for the better." He offers no evidence for this claim.
January 9, 2024 at 5:11 PM
jrothst.bsky.social
Every time I read about spies who are caught, it makes me think that we must be really, really bad at catching spies.
quote from legal filing: "SCHMIDT created a Word document entitled, 'Important information to share with Chinese government.' Survivorship bias
October 6, 2023 at 8:39 PM
jrothst.bsky.social
How does poverty transfer from one generation to another? How can we reduce it? Learn more about #Intergenerationalpoverty in a new report from @theNASEM@twitter.
nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/2705...
National Academies report on Reducing Intergenerational Poverty
September 21, 2023 at 3:04 PM
jrothst.bsky.social
Excited to have this paper in print! "The Lost Generation? Labor Market Outcomes for Post-Great Recession Entrants"

It is now old enough that it is already time to update the results...
Title and abstract of "The Lost Generation? Labor Market Outcomes for Post-Great Recession Entrants", published in the Journal of Human Resources
September 20, 2023 at 8:03 PM