Christoffer H. Dausgaard
@chdausgaard.bsky.social
Political Scientist. Postdoc @ uni of Copenhagen. Causal inference with and without DAGs.
Pinned
In a new working paper, @fghjorth.bsky.social and I show that party elites have significant power to shape group linkages through their rhetoric, suggesting that such linkages are more dynamic and elite-driven than suggested by predominant structural accounts. 🧵
Excited to be presenting my and Frederik's paper on elite rhetoric and group-party linkages in a few hours at the TaDa Spring Speaker Series! Tune in at the link below.
Next week, the TaDa Speaker Series is thrilled to host
@chdausgaard.bsky.social
from the University of Copenhagen presenting new work with @fghjorth.bsky.social on Elite Rhetoric and the Running Tally of Party-Group Linkages.
📅 April 16, 2025 | 🕔 17:00 Berlin Time
🔗 Subscribe: tada.cool
@chdausgaard.bsky.social
from the University of Copenhagen presenting new work with @fghjorth.bsky.social on Elite Rhetoric and the Running Tally of Party-Group Linkages.
📅 April 16, 2025 | 🕔 17:00 Berlin Time
🔗 Subscribe: tada.cool
April 16, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Excited to be presenting my and Frederik's paper on elite rhetoric and group-party linkages in a few hours at the TaDa Spring Speaker Series! Tune in at the link below.
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
Next week, the TaDa Speaker Series is thrilled to host
@chdausgaard.bsky.social
from the University of Copenhagen presenting new work with @fghjorth.bsky.social on Elite Rhetoric and the Running Tally of Party-Group Linkages.
📅 April 16, 2025 | 🕔 17:00 Berlin Time
🔗 Subscribe: tada.cool
@chdausgaard.bsky.social
from the University of Copenhagen presenting new work with @fghjorth.bsky.social on Elite Rhetoric and the Running Tally of Party-Group Linkages.
📅 April 16, 2025 | 🕔 17:00 Berlin Time
🔗 Subscribe: tada.cool
April 9, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Next week, the TaDa Speaker Series is thrilled to host
@chdausgaard.bsky.social
from the University of Copenhagen presenting new work with @fghjorth.bsky.social on Elite Rhetoric and the Running Tally of Party-Group Linkages.
📅 April 16, 2025 | 🕔 17:00 Berlin Time
🔗 Subscribe: tada.cool
@chdausgaard.bsky.social
from the University of Copenhagen presenting new work with @fghjorth.bsky.social on Elite Rhetoric and the Running Tally of Party-Group Linkages.
📅 April 16, 2025 | 🕔 17:00 Berlin Time
🔗 Subscribe: tada.cool
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
🚨 New piece in TIME: AI progress hasn't stalled — it's just become invisible to most people. 🚨
I used to think that AI slowed down a lot in 2024, but I now think I was wrong. Instead, there's a widening gap between AI's public face and its true capabilities. 🧵
I used to think that AI slowed down a lot in 2024, but I now think I was wrong. Instead, there's a widening gap between AI's public face and its true capabilities. 🧵
January 8, 2025 at 8:16 PM
🚨 New piece in TIME: AI progress hasn't stalled — it's just become invisible to most people. 🚨
I used to think that AI slowed down a lot in 2024, but I now think I was wrong. Instead, there's a widening gap between AI's public face and its true capabilities. 🧵
I used to think that AI slowed down a lot in 2024, but I now think I was wrong. Instead, there's a widening gap between AI's public face and its true capabilities. 🧵
In a new working paper, @fghjorth.bsky.social and I show that party elites have significant power to shape group linkages through their rhetoric, suggesting that such linkages are more dynamic and elite-driven than suggested by predominant structural accounts. 🧵
January 8, 2025 at 2:37 PM
In a new working paper, @fghjorth.bsky.social and I show that party elites have significant power to shape group linkages through their rhetoric, suggesting that such linkages are more dynamic and elite-driven than suggested by predominant structural accounts. 🧵
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
It is super tough to cut down about 40% of 482 submissions for the EPSA behavior section. But I've finished the first evaluations.
Some thoughts, if you are interested:
Some thoughts, if you are interested:
January 11, 2024 at 5:51 PM
It is super tough to cut down about 40% of 482 submissions for the EPSA behavior section. But I've finished the first evaluations.
Some thoughts, if you are interested:
Some thoughts, if you are interested:
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
I also haven't heard of Zizek. Or Hegel.
The Best Time I Pretended I Hadn’t Heard of Slavoj Žižek
One weird trick to frustrate the hell out of a Marxist bro
medium.com
December 24, 2023 at 11:29 AM
I also haven't heard of Zizek. Or Hegel.
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
Remember best practice in a power analysis is to plan not for the effect you expect, but for the smallest effect size of interest. The type 2 error is a conditional inference: If there is an effect I care about, I would have X probability to detect it. lakens.github.io/statistical_...
December 12, 2023 at 5:10 PM
Remember best practice in a power analysis is to plan not for the effect you expect, but for the smallest effect size of interest. The type 2 error is a conditional inference: If there is an effect I care about, I would have X probability to detect it. lakens.github.io/statistical_...
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
In causal inference there are row people:
"I care about effects, defined in terms of cases, and consider their potential outcomes" (population 🎯, mechanism 🤷🏻)
and column people:
"I care about mechanisms, which relate variables, and how they behave under interventions" (mechanism 🎯, population 🤷🏻)
"I care about effects, defined in terms of cases, and consider their potential outcomes" (population 🎯, mechanism 🤷🏻)
and column people:
"I care about mechanisms, which relate variables, and how they behave under interventions" (mechanism 🎯, population 🤷🏻)
I'm giving a new talk on Wednesday. Prep is going well so far
December 12, 2023 at 9:53 AM
In causal inference there are row people:
"I care about effects, defined in terms of cases, and consider their potential outcomes" (population 🎯, mechanism 🤷🏻)
and column people:
"I care about mechanisms, which relate variables, and how they behave under interventions" (mechanism 🎯, population 🤷🏻)
"I care about effects, defined in terms of cases, and consider their potential outcomes" (population 🎯, mechanism 🤷🏻)
and column people:
"I care about mechanisms, which relate variables, and how they behave under interventions" (mechanism 🎯, population 🤷🏻)
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
Great to see this out!
December 8, 2023 at 3:43 AM
Great to see this out!
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
We've made a major update to the causal diagrams chapter of Causal Inference in R! Check it out to learn about DAGs! I think there's a lot in this chapter that is undercovered in other sources. #rstats #causalinference @lucystats.bsky.social @travisgerke.bsky.social www.r-causal.org/chapters/05-...
November 29, 2023 at 9:30 PM
We've made a major update to the causal diagrams chapter of Causal Inference in R! Check it out to learn about DAGs! I think there's a lot in this chapter that is undercovered in other sources. #rstats #causalinference @lucystats.bsky.social @travisgerke.bsky.social www.r-causal.org/chapters/05-...
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
Over the course of my ERC project we collected panel surveys in BE, DE, ES, GR, IRE and PT in 2019-2021 on pol behaviour including voting in national and EP elections. Recently, those data have been deposited and are available here. dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/MA...
MAPLE ERC Project Datasets
dataverse.harvard.edu
November 25, 2023 at 9:40 AM
Over the course of my ERC project we collected panel surveys in BE, DE, ES, GR, IRE and PT in 2019-2021 on pol behaviour including voting in national and EP elections. Recently, those data have been deposited and are available here. dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/MA...
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
Special election results tonight were ambiguous, with Republicans overperforming partisan lean in 3 and Democrats overperforming in 4. Overall for the cycle, though, Dems are still overperforming bigly. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 8, 2023 at 6:29 AM
Special election results tonight were ambiguous, with Republicans overperforming partisan lean in 3 and Democrats overperforming in 4. Overall for the cycle, though, Dems are still overperforming bigly. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
🤔
Model = parsimonious representation of a DGP intended to be refined by learning from data
Theory = parsimonious representation of a DGP without such empirical refinement intention, perhaps for normative analysis or to spell out plausible counterfactuals
Model = parsimonious representation of a DGP intended to be refined by learning from data
Theory = parsimonious representation of a DGP without such empirical refinement intention, perhaps for normative analysis or to spell out plausible counterfactuals
November 3, 2023 at 1:54 PM
🤔
Model = parsimonious representation of a DGP intended to be refined by learning from data
Theory = parsimonious representation of a DGP without such empirical refinement intention, perhaps for normative analysis or to spell out plausible counterfactuals
Model = parsimonious representation of a DGP intended to be refined by learning from data
Theory = parsimonious representation of a DGP without such empirical refinement intention, perhaps for normative analysis or to spell out plausible counterfactuals
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
New: Rs question the integrity of House races when their candidates lose at much higher rates than Ds, but candidate race and margin of loss have no measurable effect (w/@johncarey.bsky.social, B. Fogarty, @jasonreifler.bsky.social, and great Dartmouth students)
sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/files/...
sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/files/...
November 3, 2023 at 12:49 PM
New: Rs question the integrity of House races when their candidates lose at much higher rates than Ds, but candidate race and margin of loss have no measurable effect (w/@johncarey.bsky.social, B. Fogarty, @jasonreifler.bsky.social, and great Dartmouth students)
sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/files/...
sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/files/...
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
Everyone knows about retrospective (economic) voting.
We asked who wins the votes that the incumbent loses. New parties? Established oppositions?
Get one out of 50 copies of our @wepsocial.bsky.social article for free.
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/GRD7C...
We asked who wins the votes that the incumbent loses. New parties? Established oppositions?
Get one out of 50 copies of our @wepsocial.bsky.social article for free.
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/GRD7C...
November 1, 2023 at 3:32 PM
Everyone knows about retrospective (economic) voting.
We asked who wins the votes that the incumbent loses. New parties? Established oppositions?
Get one out of 50 copies of our @wepsocial.bsky.social article for free.
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/GRD7C...
We asked who wins the votes that the incumbent loses. New parties? Established oppositions?
Get one out of 50 copies of our @wepsocial.bsky.social article for free.
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/GRD7C...
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
A 🧵 on Israeli strategy or lack thereof.
Israel didn’t have a strategy for this war because Israel had no idea this war was coming. Netanyahu had a strategy: avoid war, weaken moderate Palestinians and contain Hamas. But it collapsed, leaving Israel confused and at war. 1/
Israel didn’t have a strategy for this war because Israel had no idea this war was coming. Netanyahu had a strategy: avoid war, weaken moderate Palestinians and contain Hamas. But it collapsed, leaving Israel confused and at war. 1/
Between 38,200 and 44,500 buildings throughout the Gaza Strip (about 14% of all buildings in Gaza, and 25% of northern Gaza) have been damaged or destroyed since the war's beginning, new study finds. One of the most intense bombing campaigns of the 21st century by sorties/time & civilian casualties
Maps: Tracking the Attacks in Israel and Gaza
At least a quarter of all buildings in northern Gaza are damaged or destroyed, a satellite analysis suggests.
www.nytimes.com
November 1, 2023 at 12:23 PM
A 🧵 on Israeli strategy or lack thereof.
Israel didn’t have a strategy for this war because Israel had no idea this war was coming. Netanyahu had a strategy: avoid war, weaken moderate Palestinians and contain Hamas. But it collapsed, leaving Israel confused and at war. 1/
Israel didn’t have a strategy for this war because Israel had no idea this war was coming. Netanyahu had a strategy: avoid war, weaken moderate Palestinians and contain Hamas. But it collapsed, leaving Israel confused and at war. 1/
Important stuff. Most conjoints force subjects to choose. This can distort results in unpredictable ways.
New draft of paper w/ @davidryanmiller.com !
Quick summary:
- Conjoints mimic political choices that people face
- Possible problem: If people don’t approve of choices, they may abstain
- Findings: This matters!!!
- Big update: New ex w/ tied & different attribute prioritisation
Link: osf.io/4ws7m
Quick summary:
- Conjoints mimic political choices that people face
- Possible problem: If people don’t approve of choices, they may abstain
- Findings: This matters!!!
- Big update: New ex w/ tied & different attribute prioritisation
Link: osf.io/4ws7m
osf.io
November 1, 2023 at 3:44 PM
Important stuff. Most conjoints force subjects to choose. This can distort results in unpredictable ways.
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
POV: you posted a chart of median real [insert data here] on the internet in 2023
October 29, 2023 at 7:24 PM
POV: you posted a chart of median real [insert data here] on the internet in 2023
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
This poll of Muslims in Britain, which is now being widely reported, is complete garbage. It is a self-selection social media poll, no better than the Daily Express "reader polls" showing "98% support for Brexit" or similar: x.com/MuslimCensus...
x.com
October 26, 2023 at 10:21 AM
This poll of Muslims in Britain, which is now being widely reported, is complete garbage. It is a self-selection social media poll, no better than the Daily Express "reader polls" showing "98% support for Brexit" or similar: x.com/MuslimCensus...
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
BREAKING: The GOP has decided to nominate rainfall as the new House Speaker.
October 25, 2023 at 3:18 AM
BREAKING: The GOP has decided to nominate rainfall as the new House Speaker.
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
📣 New WP alert 📣
osf.io/jq28n
“Policy makers believe money motivates more than it does”
With Flo Keppeler, John Ternvoski, Dominik Vogel & Erez Yoeli
/Thread 🧵
osf.io/jq28n
“Policy makers believe money motivates more than it does”
With Flo Keppeler, John Ternvoski, Dominik Vogel & Erez Yoeli
/Thread 🧵
September 25, 2023 at 5:27 PM
📣 New WP alert 📣
osf.io/jq28n
“Policy makers believe money motivates more than it does”
With Flo Keppeler, John Ternvoski, Dominik Vogel & Erez Yoeli
/Thread 🧵
osf.io/jq28n
“Policy makers believe money motivates more than it does”
With Flo Keppeler, John Ternvoski, Dominik Vogel & Erez Yoeli
/Thread 🧵
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
I don't know who needs to hear this, but if you are writing a paper where there are two theories
Theory 1: X-->Y
Theory 2: Z-->Y
Then the regression model Y~ X + Z is probably not what you are looking for.
Theory 1: X-->Y
Theory 2: Z-->Y
Then the regression model Y~ X + Z is probably not what you are looking for.
October 14, 2023 at 7:38 PM
I don't know who needs to hear this, but if you are writing a paper where there are two theories
Theory 1: X-->Y
Theory 2: Z-->Y
Then the regression model Y~ X + Z is probably not what you are looking for.
Theory 1: X-->Y
Theory 2: Z-->Y
Then the regression model Y~ X + Z is probably not what you are looking for.
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
I didn’t post much on the last place. I’m not entirely sure I’ll do better here. But hello.
Here is something I wrote this week: uninsurability is the first stage of uninhabitability.
Here is something I wrote this week: uninsurability is the first stage of uninhabitability.
The insurance world is flirting with its climate doom loop
Persistent extreme weather patterns demand appropriate pricing of risks and more emphasis on prevention
on.ft.com
October 14, 2023 at 8:24 PM
I didn’t post much on the last place. I’m not entirely sure I’ll do better here. But hello.
Here is something I wrote this week: uninsurability is the first stage of uninhabitability.
Here is something I wrote this week: uninsurability is the first stage of uninhabitability.
Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard
There is increasing evidence that the world has warmed faster over the past 15 years than it has since the 1970s. Surface records, ocean heat content, and the Earth's energy imbalance all support an acceleration of warming, as I argue in today's @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/o...
October 13, 2023 at 4:25 PM
There is increasing evidence that the world has warmed faster over the past 15 years than it has since the 1970s. Surface records, ocean heat content, and the Earth's energy imbalance all support an acceleration of warming, as I argue in today's @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/o...