Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
Señor Research Scientist, NPC at the Hertie School in Berlin 🇩🇪 via Princeton, Mannheim, Edinburgh and a bunch of other ivory towers that will probably be billiard balls and decorative boxes by the end of the decade.
Rome Statute appreciator. ..
more
Señor Research Scientist, NPC at the Hertie School in Berlin 🇩🇪 via Princeton, Mannheim, Edinburgh and a bunch of other ivory towers that will probably be billiard balls and decorative boxes by the end of the decade.
Rome Statute appreciator.
Computer science
32%
Political science
28%
Pinned
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· Apr 15
For Monty Hall problem aficionados: a #causal DAG, with explanation in the alt text.
Who knew that the M in M-bias stood for Monty?
Who knew that the M in M-bias stood for Monty?
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 12h
I am genuinely in awe of – and slightly terrified by – some academic's urge to let no research, research-adjacent or research-if-you-were-to-look-at-it-in-a-dark-light activity go to waste 🏃💨
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 12h
I do get the instinct to think about decomposing 'good' papers into features and operationalizing those into citation metrics and whatever this ends up doing. But I also suspect we should not directly maximize 'good papers' even if we could. The medium (papers) just isn't the message (science).
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 13h
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 13h
Anyway, I hope that was slightly informative about your mysterious email requests. All additional welcome very welcome.
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 13h
Personally, I'd love to know what Elsevier's role is, in particular because Elsevier, like Thompson-Reuters et al. are explicit that they are increasingly more 'analytics company' than publisher. Which makes since when print is less in demand but everyone pays to give you free data, because reasons.
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 13h
The other folk seem to be, on the government side UKRI's Ben Steyn, on the Elsevier side David Plume, and Susan Guthrie at Rand. You can get a decent idea of what they're up to on the link above.
I thought I'd learn something about evaluation there, but my searches so far draw a complete blank.
I thought I'd learn something about evaluation there, but my searches so far draw a complete blank.
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 13h
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And speaking of details, who are the people in all this? Based on a presentation at a pre-conference workshop of Metascience 2025 cassyni.com/events/AqjXf... the sender of the emails is Sarah Otner of the University of Sussex: "it's from me". I'm not sure why that wasn't in the email.
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 13h
Ok so we all rate lots of papers. How are the indicator developers to be evaluated with our scores?
There is some discussion in the entrant hanbook (sic) noveltyindicators.challenges.org/support-to-e... tl;dr it's going to be "accuracy" and they'll figure out the details later & let everyone know 🤔
There is some discussion in the entrant hanbook (sic) noveltyindicators.challenges.org/support-to-e... tl;dr it's going to be "accuracy" and they'll figure out the details later & let everyone know 🤔
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 13h
A pessimistic view is that Elsevier is going to build the winning entry into its workflow & has, amazingly, gotten the government to indirectly fund measure development and a charity to pay off the developers afterwards.
Since this involves scientific publishing it's, eh, probably worse that that 😟
Since this involves scientific publishing it's, eh, probably worse that that 😟
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 13h
I can see why someone might think it would be... unpersuasive to ask academics to do (more) work for Elsevier, so left them out. Bit skeezy though, no?
An optimistic view is that Elsevier is there because Scopus chose the articles we are matched to. Access to their data is also part of the prize.
An optimistic view is that Elsevier is there because Scopus chose the articles we are matched to. Access to their data is also part of the prize.
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 13h
![For further information on this project please visit our website.
[logos for]
UK Research and Innovation (a government entity apparently)
University of Sussex Business School's Science Policy Research Unit
Rand Europe](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tz2mbeciygifilnnojl5j7im/bafkreibcdnjjxvowav2qc52xe3gght4lmi7wyvw7sdqdjfqx2e4n6x3she@jpeg)
![WHO IS INVOLVED?
The Metascience Novelty Indicators Challenge is a collaborative effort launched by the UK Metascience Unit (UKRI) with the support of Elsevier. Its design and implementation were supported by SPRU and RAND Europe, and it is being delivered by Challenge Works, a Nesta enterprise. Coefficient Giving will be providing the £300,000 prize to the selected winner through Challenge Works.
[logos]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tz2mbeciygifilnnojl5j7im/bafkreibe65457i7rv7ayx7yaep2hgkh2ktgpqeq2zzqno4ydnsptbtg3ka@jpeg)
So who's running this thing? That's a bit harder to say. If your email is like mine, it mentions these folk below (left).
But if you follow that link too, three more orgs appear: Coefficient Giving (they're the money), Challenge Works (no idea who that is), and Elsevier, who need no introduction.
But if you follow that link too, three more orgs appear: Coefficient Giving (they're the money), Challenge Works (no idea who that is), and Elsevier, who need no introduction.
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 13h
It seems that we survey takers are in fact evaluators, albeit not very careful ones since the survey designers estimate 6 minutes to evaluate an article's novelty with a screen full of sliders. We're being asked to construct the test set for a competition whose winner gets £300,000 (~350k Euro).
Reposted by Alexander Wuttke
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 13h
Perhaps you received a mysterious noreply email asking you to evaluate some publications 'for novelty'. Looked kinda dubious? Yup, that's the one.
So what's up with this 'metascience novelty indicators challenge'? 🧵
So what's up with this 'metascience novelty indicators challenge'? 🧵
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 16h
Association-cancelling collider bias is my favourite collider bias.
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· 17h
Bad news: www.nytimes.com/2025/03/01/us/…
Anscheinend hat nicht jeder Zweig der Familie seinen Namen geändert, nachdem sie Gallien verlassen hatten.
resigning from governing the prime minister, perhaps?
isn't it? While it goes against the grain (one can immediately see all the ways these individuals are not like-motivated) I do think it's often helpful to start with an extension and see if it's possible to induce an intension. CWL, per the article, is much more coherent than the sum of those guys.
One of the hazards of institutionalization and identification with particular countries, I suppose. Apropos, the US's "capacity for benevolent global leadership" was and remains the point where I step off the train. That's not a phrase that belongs near any form of liberalism.
What WAS "Cold War liberalism," you ask? If you read German -- or have Google translate -- you can read my thoughts here:
www.kas.de/de/web/gesch...
(with references to @jwmueller-pu.bsky.social and @lkatfield.bsky.social, among others)
www.kas.de/de/web/gesch...
(with references to @jwmueller-pu.bsky.social and @lkatfield.bsky.social, among others)
Was war der Cold War Liberalism?
Zur historischen Eigenart, inneren Spannung und aktuellen Relevanz eines skeptischen Liberalismus
www.kas.de
Huh. I just discovered I'm a 'Cold War liberal'.
But fine. Despite the uncomfortable proximity to Popper, Berlin, and Niebuhr... I'll take it.
But fine. Despite the uncomfortable proximity to Popper, Berlin, and Niebuhr... I'll take it.
Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Will Lowe
Was war der Cold War Liberalism?
Zur historischen Eigenart, inneren Spannung und aktuellen Relevanz eines skeptischen Liberalismus
www.kas.de
What WAS "Cold War liberalism," you ask? If you read German -- or have Google translate -- you can read my thoughts here:
www.kas.de/de/web/gesch...
(with references to @jwmueller-pu.bsky.social and @lkatfield.bsky.social, among others)
www.kas.de/de/web/gesch...
(with references to @jwmueller-pu.bsky.social and @lkatfield.bsky.social, among others)
"epsteintelligence"
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION IN THIS MATTER
It's a bit unclear to me whether we need a non-bullshit indicator of novelty either. I suppose the business schools find this sort of thing useful for something.
It's a pretty standard thing to call a US high school, albeit usually a private one for rich people's kids. Whether that's what a UK academy is, I wouldn't know, but no American will blink at the term, even if they get the wrong idea.
Or if that feels wrong (because, eh, it probably is) then unabashedly offer your actual self as a completely representative Brit - because that's going to be a widespread assumption anyway. Inevitably, for a lot of people you're going to be like one third of their non-fiction sample.
I suggest keeping the accent but adding a wild but not _quite_ implausible backstory you can drop into conversation. As an English visitor you are a canvas for expectations, hopes, and insecurities, so just... lean into it. Get everyone started with a little detail and let them fill in the rest.
What's Your Starbucks Name?
A not-so-foolproof way to avoid confusion when ordering coffee: assume an alter ego
www.theatlantic.com
Welcome to Americaning 101. Today's class is about navigating breakfast. We'll start with coffee, briefly think about the nationality of muffins, the what to expect from a pancake, then finish with a deep dive into eggs and how to order them.
lol, this explains the highly implausible paper choices.
(from the outline)
(from the outline)