Doing non-causal inference (and being explicit about it), yet using a causal word as second word in the title.
If you pay Nature € 10.690, they will publish this in Nature Ageing.
I can tell you what I think of that for free.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
If you pay Nature € 10.690, they will publish this in Nature Ageing.
I can tell you what I think of that for free.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
November 11, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Doing non-causal inference (and being explicit about it), yet using a causal word as second word in the title.
If you pay Nature € 10.690, they will publish this in Nature Ageing.
I can tell you what I think of that for free.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
If you pay Nature € 10.690, they will publish this in Nature Ageing.
I can tell you what I think of that for free.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
i am convinced that causal masking does this to prose style
was browsing new drivethrurpg products and was mildly surprised at just how easy it was to spot the ones with AI-generated content (in text, rather than art). The key, more than even dashes or the suchlike, is that AI is *florid*.
November 7, 2025 at 3:09 AM
i am convinced that causal masking does this to prose style
Darren, by using appropriate statistics/study design/causal inference methods you make nice findings go away. Surely nobody wants that.
November 7, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Darren, by using appropriate statistics/study design/causal inference methods you make nice findings go away. Surely nobody wants that.
Great example of an overly
sensationalist media headline based one one preprint with spurious methods
(Tl;dr No causal link has yet been found between melatonin and heart failure)
sensationalist media headline based one one preprint with spurious methods
(Tl;dr No causal link has yet been found between melatonin and heart failure)
November 10, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Great example of an overly
sensationalist media headline based one one preprint with spurious methods
(Tl;dr No causal link has yet been found between melatonin and heart failure)
sensationalist media headline based one one preprint with spurious methods
(Tl;dr No causal link has yet been found between melatonin and heart failure)
Great example of Schrödinger's Causal Inference!
Title states that multilingualism "protects" against accelerated aging. Discussion states that the study design "does not establish causality" and "proper causal inference would require experimental, quasi-experimental or intervention-based designs"
Title states that multilingualism "protects" against accelerated aging. Discussion states that the study design "does not establish causality" and "proper causal inference would require experimental, quasi-experimental or intervention-based designs"
November 11, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Great example of Schrödinger's Causal Inference!
Title states that multilingualism "protects" against accelerated aging. Discussion states that the study design "does not establish causality" and "proper causal inference would require experimental, quasi-experimental or intervention-based designs"
Title states that multilingualism "protects" against accelerated aging. Discussion states that the study design "does not establish causality" and "proper causal inference would require experimental, quasi-experimental or intervention-based designs"
This slide unfortunately generalizes well 🥲
November 11, 2025 at 9:25 AM
This slide unfortunately generalizes well 🥲
"We got Trump because of social media toxicity!" "We got Trump because of woke!" "We got Trump because of economic anxiety!" It's a cacophony of nonsense, and a never-ending one because there is always some new skeleton key, some pundit or researcher with a single mono-causal explanation
November 7, 2025 at 12:21 PM
"We got Trump because of social media toxicity!" "We got Trump because of woke!" "We got Trump because of economic anxiety!" It's a cacophony of nonsense, and a never-ending one because there is always some new skeleton key, some pundit or researcher with a single mono-causal explanation
"A voluminous record of public statements demonstrates President Trump’s desire to punish Mr. Comey for his protected speech and establishes a causal link between that desire and this prosecution."
November 10, 2025 at 8:00 PM
"A voluminous record of public statements demonstrates President Trump’s desire to punish Mr. Comey for his protected speech and establishes a causal link between that desire and this prosecution."
Misinformation research has a causality problem: lab experiments are limited; observational studies confounded.
We used causal inference on 9.9M tweets, quantifying effects in the wild while blocking backdoor paths.
Does misinfo get higher engagement? Are following discussions more emotional? 🧵
We used causal inference on 9.9M tweets, quantifying effects in the wild while blocking backdoor paths.
Does misinfo get higher engagement? Are following discussions more emotional? 🧵
OSF
osf.io
November 11, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Misinformation research has a causality problem: lab experiments are limited; observational studies confounded.
We used causal inference on 9.9M tweets, quantifying effects in the wild while blocking backdoor paths.
Does misinfo get higher engagement? Are following discussions more emotional? 🧵
We used causal inference on 9.9M tweets, quantifying effects in the wild while blocking backdoor paths.
Does misinfo get higher engagement? Are following discussions more emotional? 🧵
The advances we've made in statistics, experimental study design, and causal inference over the past century are remarkably useful for understanding our world. But there is never been a push to make people use them like we are seeing with generative AI. Perhaps take a moment to consider why.
November 7, 2025 at 9:07 AM
The advances we've made in statistics, experimental study design, and causal inference over the past century are remarkably useful for understanding our world. But there is never been a push to make people use them like we are seeing with generative AI. Perhaps take a moment to consider why.
It's very hard to read this, knowing the little bit about suicide that I do, and conclude that chatgpt was not a major causal factor
ChatGPT encouraged college graduate to commit suicide, family claims in lawsuit against OpenAI | CNN
A 23-year-old man killed himself in Texas after ChatGPT ‘goaded’ him to commit suicide, his family says in a lawsuit.
www.cnn.com
November 7, 2025 at 2:58 AM
It's very hard to read this, knowing the little bit about suicide that I do, and conclude that chatgpt was not a major causal factor
We're excited to share the final version of our paper, where we demonstrate how confounding remains a thorny problem for claims about causal genetic influences on human behavioral and socioeconomic outcomes. (w/ @jedidiahcarlson.com @oliviarxiv.bsky.social Ruth Shaw @arbelharpak.bsky.social) 🧵👇
November 7, 2025 at 7:06 PM
We're excited to share the final version of our paper, where we demonstrate how confounding remains a thorny problem for claims about causal genetic influences on human behavioral and socioeconomic outcomes. (w/ @jedidiahcarlson.com @oliviarxiv.bsky.social Ruth Shaw @arbelharpak.bsky.social) 🧵👇
This is only one factor, and perhaps it's more correlative than causal - it could easily be that cohesiveness is a sign of a good public health system - but it does bode poorly for the next pandemic if a country is enormously divided on even simple questions like vaccines.
November 10, 2025 at 4:40 AM
This is only one factor, and perhaps it's more correlative than causal - it could easily be that cohesiveness is a sign of a good public health system - but it does bode poorly for the next pandemic if a country is enormously divided on even simple questions like vaccines.
Trying to figure out causal logic is fraught because the problem of low trust is overdetermined. That difficulty doesn’t mean that everything is a subjective partisan duality between “some people say—“ and “but critics argue—”.
November 11, 2025 at 3:16 AM
Trying to figure out causal logic is fraught because the problem of low trust is overdetermined. That difficulty doesn’t mean that everything is a subjective partisan duality between “some people say—“ and “but critics argue—”.
Kobold trying to act causal and hang out with someone while trying not to let on that their significant other did not go to work today and in fact is somewhere in his lower intestine instead
November 6, 2025 at 6:21 AM
Kobold trying to act causal and hang out with someone while trying not to let on that their significant other did not go to work today and in fact is somewhere in his lower intestine instead
Recent advances seem to allow a weirdly flexible approach: not causal “what feature produced this response” but almost psychoanalytic “what is the model thinking about when I ask that question?”
Validating that will be a wicked problem, I know. But everything is a wicked problem these days.
Validating that will be a wicked problem, I know. But everything is a wicked problem these days.
November 10, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Recent advances seem to allow a weirdly flexible approach: not causal “what feature produced this response” but almost psychoanalytic “what is the model thinking about when I ask that question?”
Validating that will be a wicked problem, I know. But everything is a wicked problem these days.
Validating that will be a wicked problem, I know. But everything is a wicked problem these days.
He added a control variable and thinks that he now has a causal estimate
November 6, 2025 at 4:15 AM
He added a control variable and thinks that he now has a causal estimate
🚨New paper🚨: Are you interested in key debates about civil war and counterinsurgency? Like questions about causal inference but wish you had a better method for dealing with spillover and carryover effects? Then check out our new paper:
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
Spatiotemporal causal inference with arbitrary spillover and carryover effects: Airstrikes and insurgent violence in the Iraq War
Social scientists now routinely draw on high-frequency, high-granularity ''microlevel'' data to estimate the causal effects of subnational interventions. To date, most researchers aggregate these data...
arxiv.org
November 7, 2025 at 1:10 PM
🚨New paper🚨: Are you interested in key debates about civil war and counterinsurgency? Like questions about causal inference but wish you had a better method for dealing with spillover and carryover effects? Then check out our new paper:
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
This has to be cross-checked against the more likely causal trait: ability to schmooze teachers, coworkers, and bosses.
November 10, 2025 at 12:41 PM
This has to be cross-checked against the more likely causal trait: ability to schmooze teachers, coworkers, and bosses.
We are thrilled to announce that we have been selected in #Marató2024, for research in respiratory diseases with our project “Translating candidate causal genes in human respiratory disease using #Drosophila melanogaster” together with the Georgiou and Sayers labs at the University of Nottingham!
November 8, 2025 at 4:41 PM
We are thrilled to announce that we have been selected in #Marató2024, for research in respiratory diseases with our project “Translating candidate causal genes in human respiratory disease using #Drosophila melanogaster” together with the Georgiou and Sayers labs at the University of Nottingham!
I don’t think I track the causal relationships here: an elected official *not* commenting on foreign affairs thousands of miles away that they have no power over is equal to…a business exec having an extramarital affair…?
……huh?
……huh?
November 10, 2025 at 6:24 AM
I don’t think I track the causal relationships here: an elected official *not* commenting on foreign affairs thousands of miles away that they have no power over is equal to…a business exec having an extramarital affair…?
……huh?
……huh?
Bethany Hummingbird in her causal clothes because I prefer this one little better. 🌲💛✨
#oc #originalcharacter #digitalart #characterdesign #nativeamerican
#oc #originalcharacter #digitalart #characterdesign #nativeamerican
November 3, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Bethany Hummingbird in her causal clothes because I prefer this one little better. 🌲💛✨
#oc #originalcharacter #digitalart #characterdesign #nativeamerican
#oc #originalcharacter #digitalart #characterdesign #nativeamerican
Live pictures coming through of a mediation analysis illuminating a causal structure.
a man in a black coat is standing next to a child with the number 666 on the bottom
Alt: Uncle Fester putting a light bulb in his mouth and the bulb lights up
media.tenor.com
November 9, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Live pictures coming through of a mediation analysis illuminating a causal structure.