Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
Señor Research Scientist, NPC at the Hertie School in Berlin 🇩🇪 via Princeton, Mannheim, Edinburgh and a bunch of other ivory towers that will probably be billiard balls and decorative boxes by the end of the decade.
Rome Statute appreciator.
Rome Statute appreciator.
Pinned
Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
· Apr 15
For Monty Hall problem aficionados: a #causal DAG, with explanation in the alt text.
Who knew that the M in M-bias stood for Monty?
Who knew that the M in M-bias stood for Monty?
The Appointment with AI in Samarra
November 11, 2025 at 10:48 AM
The Appointment with AI in Samarra
The slow but happy convergence of experiments & design inference and modeling & simulation strategy continues.
Apropos, I'm beginning to see why @stephensenn.bsky.social is so enthusiastic about John Nelder (general balance & design inference) and also John Nelder (GLMs & hierarchical models).
Apropos, I'm beginning to see why @stephensenn.bsky.social is so enthusiastic about John Nelder (general balance & design inference) and also John Nelder (GLMs & hierarchical models).
Very interesting perspective! I often have the opposite thought: "Experimenting like a modeller"
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
"Validate With Simulated Truth: A first habit is to test whether an analytical pipeline can recover known conditions."
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
November 11, 2025 at 8:26 AM
The slow but happy convergence of experiments & design inference and modeling & simulation strategy continues.
Apropos, I'm beginning to see why @stephensenn.bsky.social is so enthusiastic about John Nelder (general balance & design inference) and also John Nelder (GLMs & hierarchical models).
Apropos, I'm beginning to see why @stephensenn.bsky.social is so enthusiastic about John Nelder (general balance & design inference) and also John Nelder (GLMs & hierarchical models).
You can wear a suit, you can be in a complicated relationship with a suit, or the suit can wear you.
November 10, 2025 at 12:11 PM
You can wear a suit, you can be in a complicated relationship with a suit, or the suit can wear you.
See, this is what happens if you feed them
November 10, 2025 at 10:30 AM
See, this is what happens if you feed them
1 Minute zum Kaufen
6 Tage bis zur Lieferung
9 Monate bis zur Genehmigung durch die Eigentümergemeinschaft
Wir können alles. Außer Hochgeschwindigkeit
6 Tage bis zur Lieferung
9 Monate bis zur Genehmigung durch die Eigentümergemeinschaft
Wir können alles. Außer Hochgeschwindigkeit
Solar’s price drop is astonishing: panels are now 98% cheaper than when I first analyzed them in 2004.
Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.
Today, building a fence with solar can be cheaper than using wood.
November 10, 2025 at 8:40 AM
1 Minute zum Kaufen
6 Tage bis zur Lieferung
9 Monate bis zur Genehmigung durch die Eigentümergemeinschaft
Wir können alles. Außer Hochgeschwindigkeit
6 Tage bis zur Lieferung
9 Monate bis zur Genehmigung durch die Eigentümergemeinschaft
Wir können alles. Außer Hochgeschwindigkeit
Es gibt eine Schlange, und wir stehen drin.
Be clear, the American far right are coming for British democracy.
November 9, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Es gibt eine Schlange, und wir stehen drin.
There's another indirectly malign effect here.
If you know what happened when the 'ban the box' campaign was successful and 'the box' was banned (Agan and Star, 2018), then you know what to expect when visitors think about who exactly those American soldiers were, who helped liberate Europe in WW2.
If you know what happened when the 'ban the box' campaign was successful and 'the box' was banned (Agan and Star, 2018), then you know what to expect when visitors think about who exactly those American soldiers were, who helped liberate Europe in WW2.
1/ The US Government has quietly removed a memorial to Black soldiers who died in World War II from the Netherlands American Cemetery in Margraten, South Limburg. The move follows a complaint from the right-wing Heritage Foundation to the American Battle Monuments Commission. ⬇️
November 9, 2025 at 1:49 PM
There's another indirectly malign effect here.
If you know what happened when the 'ban the box' campaign was successful and 'the box' was banned (Agan and Star, 2018), then you know what to expect when visitors think about who exactly those American soldiers were, who helped liberate Europe in WW2.
If you know what happened when the 'ban the box' campaign was successful and 'the box' was banned (Agan and Star, 2018), then you know what to expect when visitors think about who exactly those American soldiers were, who helped liberate Europe in WW2.
This is a useful interview for European students of English politics. Not only does it hit most of the tropes you'll run into in conversation, but it'll give a good idea of what is common knowledge there, what is surprising news, and the arguments that connect them. It's a mental landscape painting.
"A lot of Brexit is very funny. One of the things the British are world class at is taking the piss."
fivebooks.com/best-books/b...
fivebooks.com/best-books/b...
Brexit
The best Brexit books, as recommended by Boris Starling, journalist and Bluffer's Guide to Brexit author. Find your Brexit book.
fivebooks.com
November 9, 2025 at 1:28 PM
This is a useful interview for European students of English politics. Not only does it hit most of the tropes you'll run into in conversation, but it'll give a good idea of what is common knowledge there, what is surprising news, and the arguments that connect them. It's a mental landscape painting.
Just checking in on the Brits, and... oh good Lord
Lady in green says that manifestos should be legally binding and if political parties break them, there should be consequences, be charged with something #BBCQT
November 9, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Just checking in on the Brits, and... oh good Lord
Ok, the anniversary was back in October and it's for a bank, but c'mon I'm looking at this in the former East and... it's pretty funny.
November 8, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Ok, the anniversary was back in October and it's for a bank, but c'mon I'm looking at this in the former East and... it's pretty funny.
One thing I took away from Hacking's Representing & Intervening is that many theories of How Science Works don't survive contact with the historical record. Apropos here's an account of Franklin's role in discovering the structure of DNA. A lot going on that's hard to compress into a talking point.
What Rosalind Franklin truly contributed to the discovery of DNA’s structure
Franklin was no victim in how the DNA double helix was solved. An overlooked letter and an unpublished news article, both written in 1953, reveal that she was an equal player.
www.nature.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:35 AM
One thing I took away from Hacking's Representing & Intervening is that many theories of How Science Works don't survive contact with the historical record. Apropos here's an account of Franklin's role in discovering the structure of DNA. A lot going on that's hard to compress into a talking point.
They finally created it: the quintuple-barrel question.
This survey question ("rather much"?) from my neurologist drives me crazy, especially as a survey researcher.
November 7, 2025 at 4:18 PM
They finally created it: the quintuple-barrel question.
Reposted by Will Lowe
"Home Office data suggests that recent immigrants are more likely to be working than British nationals and make higher wages than them."
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Lower migration is bad news for the UK economy - UK in a changing Europe
Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, and that the recent collapse in immigration will harm the UK's economic p...
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 6, 2025 at 4:52 PM
"Home Office data suggests that recent immigrants are more likely to be working than British nationals and make higher wages than them."
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out,
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Forecast intervals from my time series model be like
November 6, 2025 at 11:02 PM
Forecast intervals from my time series model be like
According to Bagehot, governments have efficient parts to do the governing and vibes parts to maintain – through stirring, aspirational though maybe not so rational claims and actions – an emotional connection to people who aren't otherwise much involved in politics.
Anti-war candidate Catherine Connolly’s victory is the country’s latest rebuke to the global right-wing populist wave.
Ireland’s Next President Will Assume the Progressive Mantle
Anti-war candidate Catherine Connolly’s victory is the country’s latest rebuke to the global right-wing populist wave.
foreignpolicy.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:27 PM
According to Bagehot, governments have efficient parts to do the governing and vibes parts to maintain – through stirring, aspirational though maybe not so rational claims and actions – an emotional connection to people who aren't otherwise much involved in politics.
At some point you might want to write your own geom_* for ggplot2. Here's an instruction booklet: evamaerey.github.io/ggplot2-exte... #rstats
November 6, 2025 at 8:15 AM
At some point you might want to write your own geom_* for ggplot2. Here's an instruction booklet: evamaerey.github.io/ggplot2-exte... #rstats
You may already know the 🫣 corner of reddit that is r/RentnerfahreninDinge but don't forget: they also drive out of things.
Ein 90 jähriger ist in Ludwigsburg mit seinem Porsche gegen die Wand eines Parkhaus gefahren, hat die durchbrochen und ist samt Fahrzeug in einem hinter der Wand verlaufenden Lüftungsschacht gestürzt.
90 Jahre.
Porsche.
Freiheit.
Dies das.
90 Jahre.
Porsche.
Freiheit.
Dies das.
90-Jähriger stürzt mit Porsche in Parkhaus-Luftschacht
In einem Ludwigsburger Parkhaus erlebt ein Porsche-Fahrer einen dramatischen Unfall: Der 90-Jährige kracht rückwärts gegen eine Wand und bleibt mit dem Heck seines Boliden in einem Lüftungsschacht hän...
www.n-tv.de
November 4, 2025 at 5:21 PM
You may already know the 🫣 corner of reddit that is r/RentnerfahreninDinge but don't forget: they also drive out of things.
Fond memories of sitting with the late Maggie Boden watching Osaka's mid-size robocup team melt their electrics. No home team advantage at IJCAI 1997.
November 4, 2025 at 5:05 PM
Fond memories of sitting with the late Maggie Boden watching Osaka's mid-size robocup team melt their electrics. No home team advantage at IJCAI 1997.
Sharing an Onion article is a perfect analogy. There's nothing essentially political going on here, just vindication for a bunch of accidental communication theorists, from philosophers & social scientists who keep saying 'linguistic behaviour' to parents who tell their children to 'use your words'.
November 3, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Sharing an Onion article is a perfect analogy. There's nothing essentially political going on here, just vindication for a bunch of accidental communication theorists, from philosophers & social scientists who keep saying 'linguistic behaviour' to parents who tell their children to 'use your words'.
If the final reason that the remaining seat-of-the-pants presidential systems and Westminster-style empire hold-outs finally switch to proportional representation is panic about the far right, then... I guess I'll shut up and take the W.
November 2, 2025 at 10:53 PM
If the final reason that the remaining seat-of-the-pants presidential systems and Westminster-style empire hold-outs finally switch to proportional representation is panic about the far right, then... I guess I'll shut up and take the W.
My theory is that for practitioners, regression models should be like pocket money: you get a fixed number per week to do whatever you like with until we're sure you won't blow the whole lot on silly stuff, get caught up in a get-rich-quick scheme, or accidentally leave them in a drawer somewhere.
This paper’s been popping as “evidence” that you can’t do real #causalinference w/ obs data. To me it shows you need rigorous pre-specified design (in addition to the willingness to fold when your hypothesis is not possible to answer with the data at hand). #EpiSky, #CausalSky, #AcademicSky
November 2, 2025 at 4:20 PM
My theory is that for practitioners, regression models should be like pocket money: you get a fixed number per week to do whatever you like with until we're sure you won't blow the whole lot on silly stuff, get caught up in a get-rich-quick scheme, or accidentally leave them in a drawer somewhere.
Publishers – relentlessly adding value, since 1955.
The first (1955) Danish edition of Ray Bradbury’s FAHRENHEIT 451. Later editions did not convert the title, so this is the only SI-compatible edition! 🎢
November 1, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Publishers – relentlessly adding value, since 1955.
Ok, folks. Fire up the iPlayer (or the VPN or whatever it is you do if you don't live on Normal Island) and get a load of this. It's amazing.
Great news - one of the best mini-series ever with a dazzling & eccentric screenplay by Troy Kennedy Martin & superb direction by Martin Campbell is back on iplayer.
If you haven’t seen it then you’re in for a real treat.
Come for Bob Peck, stay for Joe Don Baker.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
If you haven’t seen it then you’re in for a real treat.
Come for Bob Peck, stay for Joe Don Baker.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
Edge of Darkness - Series 1: 1. Compassionate Leave
Thriller set in a world of obsessive state security. Ronald Craven is haunted by the murder of his daughter and begins his own investigation into her death.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 1, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Ok, folks. Fire up the iPlayer (or the VPN or whatever it is you do if you don't live on Normal Island) and get a load of this. It's amazing.
Vor dem Haushaltsplan hat der Baron von Kingsclere einen Artikel geschrieben in dem zu lesen war daß das Volk das Vertrauen der Regierung verscherzt habe und es nur durch verdoppelte Arbeit zurückerobern könne. Wäre es da nicht doch einfacher, die Regierung löste das Volk auf und wählte ein anderes?
November 1, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Vor dem Haushaltsplan hat der Baron von Kingsclere einen Artikel geschrieben in dem zu lesen war daß das Volk das Vertrauen der Regierung verscherzt habe und es nur durch verdoppelte Arbeit zurückerobern könne. Wäre es da nicht doch einfacher, die Regierung löste das Volk auf und wählte ein anderes?
One form of preregistration I'm interested in is epistemic: I commit to what evidence I'd find persuasive on some question, and you go look for it.
This won't settle the question but, like preregistering an analysis allows p-values to mean what they ought to, receipts can move an argument forward.
This won't settle the question but, like preregistering an analysis allows p-values to mean what they ought to, receipts can move an argument forward.
November 1, 2025 at 3:55 PM
One form of preregistration I'm interested in is epistemic: I commit to what evidence I'd find persuasive on some question, and you go look for it.
This won't settle the question but, like preregistering an analysis allows p-values to mean what they ought to, receipts can move an argument forward.
This won't settle the question but, like preregistering an analysis allows p-values to mean what they ought to, receipts can move an argument forward.