Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
Señor Research Scientist, NPC at the Hertie School in Berlin 🇩🇪 via Princeton, Mannheim, Edinburgh and a bunch of other ivory towers that will probably be billiard balls and decorative boxes by the end of the decade.
Rome Statute appreciator.
Rome Statute appreciator.
The Appointment with AI in Samarra
November 11, 2025 at 10:48 AM
The Appointment with AI in Samarra
Sharpies: Because sometimes you need forecast *regions*
November 10, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Sharpies: Because sometimes you need forecast *regions*
Antinous: "Come on Odysseus, put it away. You know you're not going to use it."
Eurymachus: "The bow he means!"
Eurymachus: "The bow he means!"
November 10, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Antinous: "Come on Odysseus, put it away. You know you're not going to use it."
Eurymachus: "The bow he means!"
Eurymachus: "The bow he means!"
See, this is what happens if you feed them
November 10, 2025 at 10:30 AM
See, this is what happens if you feed them
As far as I can tell, the word effect already has quotes. They're just silent.
November 9, 2025 at 2:10 PM
As far as I can tell, the word effect already has quotes. They're just silent.
Also, excuse me, what?
November 9, 2025 at 11:39 AM
Also, excuse me, what?
Not sure that's it though.
November 9, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Not sure that's it though.
"So, are you illuminating a mediation structure, assuming a mediation structure, or testing for a mediation structure?"
"Yes"
"Yes"
November 9, 2025 at 9:00 AM
"So, are you illuminating a mediation structure, assuming a mediation structure, or testing for a mediation structure?"
"Yes"
"Yes"
Ok, the anniversary was back in October and it's for a bank, but c'mon I'm looking at this in the former East and... it's pretty funny.
November 8, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Ok, the anniversary was back in October and it's for a bank, but c'mon I'm looking at this in the former East and... it's pretty funny.
Rubin's gonna Rubin, but Robins Rubins harder.
November 8, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Rubin's gonna Rubin, but Robins Rubins harder.
That is why this guy is always on my shelf. Strong recommend.
November 8, 2025 at 1:05 PM
That is why this guy is always on my shelf. Strong recommend.
Could be competitive. Just needs a dash of
November 7, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Could be competitive. Just needs a dash of
There's even a model for it:
November 7, 2025 at 12:10 PM
There's even a model for it:
Forecast intervals from my time series model be like
November 6, 2025 at 11:02 PM
Forecast intervals from my time series model be like
The Martínez et al. study discussed first is interesting for other reasons too. The github repo seems to have been GPTed, and despite footnote 53 pointing readers to the Stata replication code in that repo, there isn't any there. So, I am no clearer on what models were actually fit and how.
November 6, 2025 at 8:37 PM
The Martínez et al. study discussed first is interesting for other reasons too. The github repo seems to have been GPTed, and despite footnote 53 pointing readers to the Stata replication code in that repo, there isn't any there. So, I am no clearer on what models were actually fit and how.
A descendant of Roger Babson perhaps? (This one commemorates the part of his cash that went to Emory)
November 4, 2025 at 3:27 PM
A descendant of Roger Babson perhaps? (This one commemorates the part of his cash that went to Emory)
imho the sorts of quantities you're talking about are of real interest, but the fact that they might be picked out by particular parameters or combinations is (in my world, at least) a convenience we ought not to lean into because it will collapse at an awkward moment.
The spicier version is:
The spicier version is:
November 4, 2025 at 3:16 PM
imho the sorts of quantities you're talking about are of real interest, but the fact that they might be picked out by particular parameters or combinations is (in my world, at least) a convenience we ought not to lean into because it will collapse at an awkward moment.
The spicier version is:
The spicier version is:
Because Dan's a Solutions guy
November 1, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Because Dan's a Solutions guy
October 31, 2025 at 4:56 PM
I see that this usage is marked as 'old-fashioned' and the dictionary's page for 'they' is fine with indeterminate 'they'.
Personally, I can't imagine asking of that person on the phone "what does he or she want?", or saying "everyone must do what he or she thinks best", but I guess someone must.
Personally, I can't imagine asking of that person on the phone "what does he or she want?", or saying "everyone must do what he or she thinks best", but I guess someone must.
October 31, 2025 at 10:11 AM
I see that this usage is marked as 'old-fashioned' and the dictionary's page for 'they' is fine with indeterminate 'they'.
Personally, I can't imagine asking of that person on the phone "what does he or she want?", or saying "everyone must do what he or she thinks best", but I guess someone must.
Personally, I can't imagine asking of that person on the phone "what does he or she want?", or saying "everyone must do what he or she thinks best", but I guess someone must.
I'm not sure I'd be able to check that at this point.
One thing that might be worth mentioning, for the posts only: it's also possible to pay a (Brazilian?) company a rather small sum to grab all your Twitter posts over several days and insert them, original date marked, into the bluesky timeline.
One thing that might be worth mentioning, for the posts only: it's also possible to pay a (Brazilian?) company a rather small sum to grab all your Twitter posts over several days and insert them, original date marked, into the bluesky timeline.
October 29, 2025 at 2:27 PM
I'm not sure I'd be able to check that at this point.
One thing that might be worth mentioning, for the posts only: it's also possible to pay a (Brazilian?) company a rather small sum to grab all your Twitter posts over several days and insert them, original date marked, into the bluesky timeline.
One thing that might be worth mentioning, for the posts only: it's also possible to pay a (Brazilian?) company a rather small sum to grab all your Twitter posts over several days and insert them, original date marked, into the bluesky timeline.