Will Lowe
@conjugateprior.org
Señor Research Scientist, NPC at the Hertie School in Berlin 🇩🇪 via Princeton, Mannheim, Edinburgh and a bunch of other ivory towers that will probably be billiard balls and decorative boxes by the end of the decade.
Rome Statute appreciator.
Rome Statute appreciator.
Ha. I nearly linked to it but ran out of space.
November 11, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Ha. I nearly linked to it but ran out of space.
Yes, that's the contrast of interest
The relevant observations are imo 1. MH is a causal inference problem first and a probability problem second, and 2. the association usually called collider bias is information you can make use of for decision rather than just being, as it normally is, a problem
The relevant observations are imo 1. MH is a causal inference problem first and a probability problem second, and 2. the association usually called collider bias is information you can make use of for decision rather than just being, as it normally is, a problem
November 11, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Yes, that's the contrast of interest
The relevant observations are imo 1. MH is a causal inference problem first and a probability problem second, and 2. the association usually called collider bias is information you can make use of for decision rather than just being, as it normally is, a problem
The relevant observations are imo 1. MH is a causal inference problem first and a probability problem second, and 2. the association usually called collider bias is information you can make use of for decision rather than just being, as it normally is, a problem
I mean, they _could_ (le yikes) but it seems like there are stacks of potential natural experiments using everything from immigrant populations to high school curriculum shocks.
November 11, 2025 at 8:39 AM
I mean, they _could_ (le yikes) but it seems like there are stacks of potential natural experiments using everything from immigrant populations to high school curriculum shocks.
Sharpies: Because sometimes you need forecast *regions*
November 10, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Sharpies: Because sometimes you need forecast *regions*
Bet you didn't know that flags can have familiars.
November 10, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Bet you didn't know that flags can have familiars.
A real serial monogamist. Lots of issues tbh.
"Men will literally suppress Catholicism in England rather than go to Mass" (Thomas More, probably)
"Men will literally suppress Catholicism in England rather than go to Mass" (Thomas More, probably)
November 10, 2025 at 11:54 AM
A real serial monogamist. Lots of issues tbh.
"Men will literally suppress Catholicism in England rather than go to Mass" (Thomas More, probably)
"Men will literally suppress Catholicism in England rather than go to Mass" (Thomas More, probably)
Ah, yes. One of those parts of Berlin that would be improved by converting it into almost anything else. A multistory parking garage, a water park, an even bigger Bud Spencer museum. Anything, really.
November 10, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Ah, yes. One of those parts of Berlin that would be improved by converting it into almost anything else. A multistory parking garage, a water park, an even bigger Bud Spencer museum. Anything, really.
Antinous: "Come on Odysseus, put it away. You know you're not going to use it."
Eurymachus: "The bow he means!"
Eurymachus: "The bow he means!"
November 10, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Antinous: "Come on Odysseus, put it away. You know you're not going to use it."
Eurymachus: "The bow he means!"
Eurymachus: "The bow he means!"
Also, given what I see being pulled out of the Spree on the regular, I think it might be full.
November 10, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Also, given what I see being pulled out of the Spree on the regular, I think it might be full.
Fun fact: there are more illegally parked cars in the photo than there are scooters. Obviously I've redacted them because this is Germany and cars are very sensitive and private things that don't take criticism well and must be allowed to be able to park anywhere for free.
November 10, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Fun fact: there are more illegally parked cars in the photo than there are scooters. Obviously I've redacted them because this is Germany and cars are very sensitive and private things that don't take criticism well and must be allowed to be able to park anywhere for free.
I just learned that we could have had country-wide fiber optic in the early 1980s but Kohl cancelled the project because copper was cheaper.
November 10, 2025 at 9:56 AM
I just learned that we could have had country-wide fiber optic in the early 1980s but Kohl cancelled the project because copper was cheaper.
(Flag signals stopped being accepted in the late 1960s ofc)
November 10, 2025 at 9:51 AM
(Flag signals stopped being accepted in the late 1960s ofc)
😢
Nobody was sending spam at 1 euro per character, especially [ahem] in German.
Nobody was sending spam at 1 euro per character, especially [ahem] in German.
Germany's telegram era ends with final rush of thousands
BERLIN (AP) — The era of the telegram came to an end in Germany with a final flourish of thousands of the once-popular message service, the country's main postal service, Deutsche Post, said Wednesday...
apnews.com
November 10, 2025 at 9:46 AM
😢
Nobody was sending spam at 1 euro per character, especially [ahem] in German.
Nobody was sending spam at 1 euro per character, especially [ahem] in German.
So, on that last question...
[throws open doors to reveal a vast multistorey library]
First floor: history
Second floor: couches
Third through tenth floor: psychopathology
[throws open doors to reveal a vast multistorey library]
First floor: history
Second floor: couches
Third through tenth floor: psychopathology
November 10, 2025 at 8:56 AM
So, on that last question...
[throws open doors to reveal a vast multistorey library]
First floor: history
Second floor: couches
Third through tenth floor: psychopathology
[throws open doors to reveal a vast multistorey library]
First floor: history
Second floor: couches
Third through tenth floor: psychopathology
It's the perfect word because it's also almost a pictogram
_⧹\Igel/⧸_
_⧹\Igel/⧸_
November 10, 2025 at 8:47 AM
It's the perfect word because it's also almost a pictogram
_⧹\Igel/⧸_
_⧹\Igel/⧸_
You might like stationary bandit theories of state formation.
November 10, 2025 at 7:24 AM
You might like stationary bandit theories of state formation.
[very Oxford 1960 voice]
so the question *tamps pipe* is whether 'noumena' can be coherently understood as plural.
so the question *tamps pipe* is whether 'noumena' can be coherently understood as plural.
November 10, 2025 at 7:23 AM
[very Oxford 1960 voice]
so the question *tamps pipe* is whether 'noumena' can be coherently understood as plural.
so the question *tamps pipe* is whether 'noumena' can be coherently understood as plural.