Cyrus Samii

@cdsamii.bsky.social

4.2K followers 1.5K following 440 posts

NYU Politics prof. Methods to inform policy. Governance, conflict, institutions. cyrussamii.com

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Political science 26%

Mathematics 24%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Cyrus Samii, Tore Ellingsen, Philipp Maier

Kevin A. Bryan @afinetheorem.bsky.social · 28d

What a great day: legends of innovation economics Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt win the Nobel. Joel was a PhD advisor of mine, so need a full article! Included: good & bad explanations of the Indus Rev, Aghion's charisma, influence of Jon Hughes, French fashion houses: kevinbryanecon.com/mokyraghionh...

A Nobel for Innovation: Mokyr, Aghion, and Howitt

kevinbryanecon.com

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Oct 10

Congrats to UZH.
One can read in terms of Hirschman’s Exit/Voice/Loyalty framework: the pull of sentimentality toward MIT is weak when there is abundant work to be done on global poverty and the broader home
environment is so bleak.

Florian Scheuer @florianscheuer.bsky.social · Oct 10

I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.

🧵 1/7

Reposted by Dani Rodrik, Stephen M. Walt, Cas Mudde , and 51 more Dani Rodrik, Stephen M. Walt, Cas Mudde, Ben H. Ansell, Jan W. Mueller, Guntram B. Wolff, Christian Odendahl, Richard S.J. Tol, Colin F. Camerer, Robbert Sanderman, David Brady, Gabriel Felbermayr, Steven Van de Walle, Tomasz Mickiewicz, Alistair Munro, Michael A. Clemens, Cyrus Samii, Lucas Leemann, Francesco Saraceno, Laia Balcells, Andrew Curry, Paul Lehmann, Guy Grossman, John Mullahy, Joshua Goodman, David Dorn, Ingo Rohlfing, Daniel W. Drezner, Iikka Korhonen, Robert C. Richards, Aaron Sojourner, Daniel Huppmann, Julia Lynch, Rita Hamad, Stephen D. Murphy, Nazita Lajevardi, Stacy D. VanDeveer, Miguel Á. Malo, Henry Farrell, Dean Eckles, Maria Abreu, Dana R. Fisher, Jason Lyall, Brian Weatherson, Brooke Harrington, Bård Harstad, Christina Pagel, Jürgen Janger, Nicolai von Ondarza, Karsten Mäuse, Dietmar Fehr, Bartosz Bartkowski, Adam Tooze, Anita Gohdes

Florian Scheuer @florianscheuer.bsky.social · Oct 10

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 30

👀 (given the remarkable robustness of BART as a static prediction method)

arXiv stat.ME Methodology @statme-bot.bsky.social · Sep 30

Christoph Breunig, Ruixuan Liu, Zhengfei Yu: Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.24634 https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24634

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

arXiv stat.ME Methodology @statme-bot.bsky.social · Sep 30

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 29

Very well said. Re (2), a version of this is in the Korn and Graubard "Analysis of Health Surveys" textbook that explains how, under misspecification (and all models are somewhat misspecified), the weighted (population) fit is what we want rather than the sample fit.

Reposted by Cyrus Samii, David Darmofal

Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · Sep 23

Currently in FirstView: “Generalizing Trimming Bounds for Endogeneously Missing Outcome Data Using Random Forests." @cdsamii.bsky.social, Ye Wang, @jlzhou.bsky.social‬ present a partial identification approach that avoids strong assumptions. This is illustrated using a simulation and replication.

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 12

Agreed — nice round up of very well informed perspectives. I found Raleigh’s analysis especially convincing but all perspectives were thought provoking.

Jonathan Ladd @jonmladd.bsky.social · Sep 12

Credit where credit is due. This Politico symposium on political violence is good.

10 Political Violence Experts on What Comes Next for America

Can America escape the spiral of political violence after Charlie Kirk’s killing?

www.politico.com

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

Jonathan Ladd @jonmladd.bsky.social · Sep 12

Credit where credit is due. This Politico symposium on political violence is good.

10 Political Violence Experts on What Comes Next for America

Can America escape the spiral of political violence after Charlie Kirk’s killing?

www.politico.com

Reposted by Caroline Krafft, Cyrus Samii

Oliver Hanney @olihanney.bsky.social · Sep 2

Back to teaching or studying economics at university this September?

@voxdev.bsky.social has tons of useful resources for university economics courses - I have included some examples in this thread. 1/n

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 2

Skepticism toward vax and modern medicine is fairly widespread publicly as I’ve seen, and is tied up with antipathy toward “experts” (“do your own research” a la Aaron Rodgers), which universities embody. There is the woke issue sure, but there is also antipathy toward expertise to contend with.

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 2

Let’s take the area where there has been the most heat: vaccinations. The MRNA vax researcher doesn’t need to change what they do. It’s a problem of educating the public that this is useful stuff. The question is how to do that effectively.

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Sep 2

Seems that a field that has taken an especially large hit in the current context is biomedical sciences, and this because, it seems, MAGA rejected the expert guidance on COVID. These rules leave many unanswered questions for that field, no?

Reposted by Stephen P. Jenkins, Steven N. Durlauf, Dave O’Brien , and 25 more Stephen P. Jenkins, Steven N. Durlauf, Dave O’Brien, Michael A. Clemens, Mark J. Brandt, Lorraine Dearden, Rafael H. M. Pereira, Cyrus Samii, Lesley A. Hall, Rebecca Sear, Valerie Mueller, Adam Gamoran, Melanie C. Green, Max Nathan, Julia Lynch, Miguel Á. Malo, Maria Abreu, Rachel S. Franklin, David Bartram, Marco Albertini, Rense Corten, Jill A. Jacobson, Stefanie Mollborn, Jon Dean, Alexandra Cirone, Jake Anders, Evan Roberts, David Darmofal

Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · Sep 1

WE ARE HIRING! 2 Lecturers in Quantitative Social Science. Want a friendly interdisciplinary department in one of the world's most vibrant cities? This just might be for you.

Apply by: 10 Oct

www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 30

I agree with comments here emphasizing Trump’s vengeance on the “medical establishment” after feeling that it conspired during COVID to unseat him. Would be nice if nurses and doctors generated a groundswell of alarm in their personal social networks about the dangers.

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

Klaus Pforr @klauspforr.bsky.social · Aug 29

Interesting paper on design-based uncertainty for quasi-experiments
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Design-Based Uncertainty for Quasi-Experiments

Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This article develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzin...

www.tandfonline.com

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 28

Montiel Olea has a few really nice papers on design from a decision theoretic perspective.

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 28

Anna Wilke and I have a paper (soon on Arxiv) that I can send on design diversification from minmax regret perspective. We were inspired by Manski and papers on experimental design like Banerjee et al. and Azevedo et al.

www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...

University of Chicago Press Journals: Cookie absent

www.journals.uchicago.edu

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 21

Isn't this "generalization"?

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 18

(The tortured fit of a global polynomial)

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 16

For your weekend read I highly recommend this article on the Tampa Bay Rays and the thankless pursuit of excellence:

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/06/m...

Is He Baseball’s Most Brilliant Owner, or a Failure?

www.nytimes.com

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 16

👀

ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · Aug 15

link 📈🤖
A General Design-Based Framework and Estimator for Randomized Experiments (Harshaw, S\"avje, Wang) We describe a design-based framework for drawing causal inference in general randomized experiments. Causal effects are defined as linear functionals evaluated at unit-level potential outcom

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · Aug 15

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 10

*cited (not cute)

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 10

We had a wee contribution on this for randomized experiments (cute by Abadie et al.). The idea extends by analogy to observational studies: cyrussamii.com/wp-content/u...

cyrussamii.com

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · Aug 10

One observes only a sample of the potential outcomes. Sampling error based standard errors provide for conservative inference for such uncertainty. Surprisingly, this was not widely known until fairly recently. (Cf the Abadie et al paper and refs therein.)

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

NBER @nber.org · Mar 30

Using new tools in legal language processing to show workers value the legal rights provided by collective bargaining agreements, from Benjamin W. Arold, Elliott Ash, W. Bentley MacLeod, and Suresh Naidu https://www.nber.org/papers/w33605

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · Apr 22

link 📈🤖
Finite Population Identification and Design-Based Sensitivity Analysis (Kline, Masten) We develop an approach to sensitivity analysis that uses design distributions to calibrate sensitivity parameters in a finite population model. We use this approach to (1) give a new formal analysis of

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

Miguel Hernan @miguelhernan.org · Apr 24

If you're wondering about differences between publicly-funded research in non-profit universities and
privately-funded research in for-profit companies, watch this:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar0z...

The topic is the "de-extinction of the dire wolf", but the message applies beyond it. (Think "AI".)

They Didn't Make Dire Wolves, They Made Something…Else

YouTube video by hankschannel

www.youtube.com

Reposted by Cyrus Samii

Greg Faletto @gregoryfaletto.com · May 3

It's not okay, and this is basically the reason. If you want to be able to peek at the results, then increase the sample size, and repeat, you have to use anytime-valid inference techniques e.g. arxiv.org/abs/2210.01948

Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inference

Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty -- e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation -- that remain valid at all stopping time...

arxiv.org

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