Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)
@avishaybsg.bsky.social
Normative Theory of Civ-Mil especially under democratic backsliding | Liberalism Rekindled Postdoctoral Fellow @Hebrew U | Ruderman Scholar in Residence and Senior Researcher at the INSS | Napper extraordinaire | Kartofellophile
Pinned
Things about politics I’ve come to believe strongly:
1. Less bad is better than more bad
2. Nostalgia is generally incorrect. Things weren’t better
3. Still, things can get much worse
4. Democracy is an outlier in human political history
5. Optimism is rooted in agency, not positive predictions
1. Less bad is better than more bad
2. Nostalgia is generally incorrect. Things weren’t better
3. Still, things can get much worse
4. Democracy is an outlier in human political history
5. Optimism is rooted in agency, not positive predictions
I object to the Ben Gvir led passage in preliminary Knesset vote of capital punishment for terrorists. But Hamas condemning it as a violation of humanitarian law and human rights is a bit rich.
November 11, 2025 at 7:52 AM
I object to the Ben Gvir led passage in preliminary Knesset vote of capital punishment for terrorists. But Hamas condemning it as a violation of humanitarian law and human rights is a bit rich.
Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)
Israeli soldiers speak out on killings of Gaza civilians
IDF soldiers tell documentary of opening fire unprovoked and arbitrary designations of who was an enemy
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
IDF soldiers tell documentary of opening fire unprovoked and arbitrary designations of who was an enemy
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Israeli soldiers speak out on killings of Gaza civilians
IDF soldiers tell documentary of opening fire unprovoked and arbitrary designations of who was an enemy
www.theguardian.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Israeli soldiers speak out on killings of Gaza civilians
IDF soldiers tell documentary of opening fire unprovoked and arbitrary designations of who was an enemy
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
IDF soldiers tell documentary of opening fire unprovoked and arbitrary designations of who was an enemy
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Thank you last year’s me for leaving me with lecture notes on this slideshow. Seriously, what a cool move.
November 10, 2025 at 6:26 AM
Thank you last year’s me for leaving me with lecture notes on this slideshow. Seriously, what a cool move.
I wrote a thing about the generational cliff Israel is facing in US public opinion and why it's not going away easily (if at all).
If you thought it was interesting, share it, and I would love to hear your thoughts.
If you thought it was interesting, share it, and I would love to hear your thoughts.
Why younger Americans are less supportive of Israel | The Jerusalem Post
Older generations of Americans understood Israel; that may not be the case for the next generation.
www.jpost.com
November 7, 2025 at 12:52 PM
I wrote a thing about the generational cliff Israel is facing in US public opinion and why it's not going away easily (if at all).
If you thought it was interesting, share it, and I would love to hear your thoughts.
If you thought it was interesting, share it, and I would love to hear your thoughts.
Vladeck points out that the lower court’s findings on harms to the plaintiffs weren’t even considered by the majority. I suspect that that’s because they’re committed to believing gender dysphoria is a made up thing
"Beyond being the 24th consecutive grant of emergency relief to the Trump administration, the cryptic ruling in Orr is a reminder of just how bankrupt the Court’s proffered justifications are in these cases—both legally and in other ways, too."
Me on today's ugly #SCOTUS ruling in Trump v. Orr:
Me on today's ugly #SCOTUS ruling in Trump v. Orr:
189. The Breezy Inequity of Trump v. Orr
The Supreme Court's latest grant of emergency relief to the Trump administration illustrates in technicolor the direct (and ugly) consequences of the two different ways it keeps messing up "equity."
www.stevevladeck.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Vladeck points out that the lower court’s findings on harms to the plaintiffs weren’t even considered by the majority. I suspect that that’s because they’re committed to believing gender dysphoria is a made up thing
Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)
🚨 WaPo SCOOP: Inside the crisis at the Heritage Foundation
The group behind Project 2025 is facing a rebellion — and has been for months.
The Tucker Carlson/Nick Fuentes/antisemitism saga is just what caused it to break into the open.
🎁 Gift link:
The group behind Project 2025 is facing a rebellion — and has been for months.
The Tucker Carlson/Nick Fuentes/antisemitism saga is just what caused it to break into the open.
🎁 Gift link:
Heritage staff in open revolt over leader’s defense of Tucker Carlson
At least five members of Heritage’s antisemitism task force resigned after Roberts defended Carlson’s interview with antisemitic white nationalist Nick Fuentes.
wapo.st
November 6, 2025 at 12:49 PM
🚨 WaPo SCOOP: Inside the crisis at the Heritage Foundation
The group behind Project 2025 is facing a rebellion — and has been for months.
The Tucker Carlson/Nick Fuentes/antisemitism saga is just what caused it to break into the open.
🎁 Gift link:
The group behind Project 2025 is facing a rebellion — and has been for months.
The Tucker Carlson/Nick Fuentes/antisemitism saga is just what caused it to break into the open.
🎁 Gift link:
Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)
A core challenge of epistemology—especially political epistemology—is that the final, all things considered answer to hugely important & consequential questions is often: "we don't know, and probably can't know."
A desperation for such unavailable answers drives demand for snake oil substitutes.
A desperation for such unavailable answers drives demand for snake oil substitutes.
John sides on moderation
"I have a half-baked thesis that the more uncertainty surrounds some empirical claim, the more heated the argument. It should be the opposite, I think. If the evidence is pretty mixed or uncertain [....] The right view is basically 'it’s hard to know.' "
"I have a half-baked thesis that the more uncertainty surrounds some empirical claim, the more heated the argument. It should be the opposite, I think. If the evidence is pretty mixed or uncertain [....] The right view is basically 'it’s hard to know.' "
us12.campaign-archive.com
November 6, 2025 at 3:43 PM
A core challenge of epistemology—especially political epistemology—is that the final, all things considered answer to hugely important & consequential questions is often: "we don't know, and probably can't know."
A desperation for such unavailable answers drives demand for snake oil substitutes.
A desperation for such unavailable answers drives demand for snake oil substitutes.
Do I want falafel?
November 6, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Do I want falafel?
Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)
thermostatic backlash remains undefeated
November 5, 2025 at 3:23 AM
thermostatic backlash remains undefeated
Full text of the US circulated UNSC draft resolution on Gaza transitional arrangements (in Arabic).
www.alqudsalarabi.co.uk/%D8%A7%D9%84...
www.alqudsalarabi.co.uk/%D8%A7%D9%84...
https://www.alqudsalarabi.co.uk/القدس-العربي-تنشر-مسودة-مشروع-القرار/
November 4, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Full text of the US circulated UNSC draft resolution on Gaza transitional arrangements (in Arabic).
www.alqudsalarabi.co.uk/%D8%A7%D9%84...
www.alqudsalarabi.co.uk/%D8%A7%D9%84...
A James Bond movie, but it's just the villain working to set up their scheme
November 4, 2025 at 8:25 PM
A James Bond movie, but it's just the villain working to set up their scheme
Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)
"Tuesday’s federal budget is expected to flip a long-established script for the Canadian military and the Department of National Defence" since "they are likely going to be in the uncomfortable position of having so much cash it will be hard to keep up." www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Federal budget expected to chart a course to meet NATO's 5% spending target | CBC News
What will rearming the Canadian military look like? We could get a clearer in Tuesday's federal budget. At least one defence expert says the Liberal government has made a lot of vague promises and the...
www.cbc.ca
November 4, 2025 at 2:23 PM
"Tuesday’s federal budget is expected to flip a long-established script for the Canadian military and the Department of National Defence" since "they are likely going to be in the uncomfortable position of having so much cash it will be hard to keep up." www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love
November 4, 2025 at 10:51 AM
I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love
I spent a long time on flights today so two lukewarm movie takes:
1. Sully - not sure how this became a feature film.
2. Priest - cool steampunk vampire dystopia. Bettany is a strong lead. Kinda sad it didn't get the very obviously intended sequel
1. Sully - not sure how this became a feature film.
2. Priest - cool steampunk vampire dystopia. Bettany is a strong lead. Kinda sad it didn't get the very obviously intended sequel
November 3, 2025 at 7:00 PM
I spent a long time on flights today so two lukewarm movie takes:
1. Sully - not sure how this became a feature film.
2. Priest - cool steampunk vampire dystopia. Bettany is a strong lead. Kinda sad it didn't get the very obviously intended sequel
1. Sully - not sure how this became a feature film.
2. Priest - cool steampunk vampire dystopia. Bettany is a strong lead. Kinda sad it didn't get the very obviously intended sequel
Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)
Today's "One First" dives into the question #SCOTUS is now asking in the Illinois National Guard case—and why "regular forces" *does* mean only the military; why the Trump administration should therefore *lose*; and why that *won't* necessarily provide a justification to invoke the Insurrection Act:
187. "Regular Forces" and the Insurrection Act
The supplemental briefing order in the Illinois National Guard case provides an obvious way for the Court to block President Trump's deployments to date—and a fair concern about what could come next.
www.stevevladeck.com
November 3, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Today's "One First" dives into the question #SCOTUS is now asking in the Illinois National Guard case—and why "regular forces" *does* mean only the military; why the Trump administration should therefore *lose*; and why that *won't* necessarily provide a justification to invoke the Insurrection Act:
She has been arrested, as has the Chief Military Prosecutor under suspicion of obstruction. Her phone is missing.
I deleted the thread since it’s misleading now.
Israeli Chief JAG went missing after becoming target of public scrutiny and right wing attacks over her leak of investigation video of abuse of Hamas prisoners. She has since been found healthy following report of note left behind in her car.
Israeli Chief JAG went missing after becoming target of public scrutiny and right wing attacks over her leak of investigation video of abuse of Hamas prisoners. She has since been found healthy following report of note left behind in her car.
She’s alive and well and has been contacted. A huge relief
November 3, 2025 at 3:01 AM
She has been arrested, as has the Chief Military Prosecutor under suspicion of obstruction. Her phone is missing.
I deleted the thread since it’s misleading now.
Israeli Chief JAG went missing after becoming target of public scrutiny and right wing attacks over her leak of investigation video of abuse of Hamas prisoners. She has since been found healthy following report of note left behind in her car.
Israeli Chief JAG went missing after becoming target of public scrutiny and right wing attacks over her leak of investigation video of abuse of Hamas prisoners. She has since been found healthy following report of note left behind in her car.
She’s alive and well and has been contacted. A huge relief
November 2, 2025 at 5:14 PM
I deleted the thread since it’s misleading now.
Israeli Chief JAG went missing after becoming target of public scrutiny and right wing attacks over her leak of investigation video of abuse of Hamas prisoners. She has since been found healthy following report of note left behind in her car.
Israeli Chief JAG went missing after becoming target of public scrutiny and right wing attacks over her leak of investigation video of abuse of Hamas prisoners. She has since been found healthy following report of note left behind in her car.
I often use the term “baseball statistics”.
As a pejorative.
As a pejorative.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the first pitcher in MLB history to win 3 games ON THE ROAD in a single World Series.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the first pitcher to win 3 games in a single World Series since Randy Johnson in 2001. Johnson won Game 2 and Game 6 as a starter and Game 7 as a reliever. Yamamoto did the same.
November 2, 2025 at 5:19 AM
I often use the term “baseball statistics”.
As a pejorative.
As a pejorative.
Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)
INVENTOR: ive got a great new toy idea for you, it's called... the Radio Flyer
TOY EXEC: oh wow, so it's like a plane that flies via... radio?
INVENTOR: it's not a plane
TOY EXEC: oh...Kay, so it's
INVENTOR: its a little red wagon
TOY EXEC: with ... a radio on it?
INVENTOR: theres no radio
TOY EXEC: oh wow, so it's like a plane that flies via... radio?
INVENTOR: it's not a plane
TOY EXEC: oh...Kay, so it's
INVENTOR: its a little red wagon
TOY EXEC: with ... a radio on it?
INVENTOR: theres no radio
November 2, 2025 at 2:52 AM
INVENTOR: ive got a great new toy idea for you, it's called... the Radio Flyer
TOY EXEC: oh wow, so it's like a plane that flies via... radio?
INVENTOR: it's not a plane
TOY EXEC: oh...Kay, so it's
INVENTOR: its a little red wagon
TOY EXEC: with ... a radio on it?
INVENTOR: theres no radio
TOY EXEC: oh wow, so it's like a plane that flies via... radio?
INVENTOR: it's not a plane
TOY EXEC: oh...Kay, so it's
INVENTOR: its a little red wagon
TOY EXEC: with ... a radio on it?
INVENTOR: theres no radio
Hades 2 is amazing. And also runs are a tad long and I am a little daunted by all the possibilities. I’ve haven’t finished either route yet.
November 1, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Hades 2 is amazing. And also runs are a tad long and I am a little daunted by all the possibilities. I’ve haven’t finished either route yet.
This is happening now.
Hundreds of thousands of ultra-Orthodox men block entrance to Jerusalem in mass anti-draft rally
www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-oct...
Hundreds of thousands of ultra-Orthodox men block entrance to Jerusalem in mass anti-draft rally
www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-oct...
Hundreds of thousands of ultra-Orthodox men block entrance to Jerusalem in mass anti-draft rally
Hamas says it is about to return two bodies of hostages * Construction to begin on Jordan-border security barrier * PM said to weigh action to weaken state probes * IDF demolishes 'terror infrastructu...
www.timesofisrael.com
October 30, 2025 at 2:14 PM
This is happening now.
Hundreds of thousands of ultra-Orthodox men block entrance to Jerusalem in mass anti-draft rally
www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-oct...
Hundreds of thousands of ultra-Orthodox men block entrance to Jerusalem in mass anti-draft rally
www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-oct...
The early page, with DOI for citations and is now available on the Journal of Democracy website.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
October 26, 2025 at 11:57 AM
The early page, with DOI for citations and is now available on the Journal of Democracy website.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)
ordinary americans are filming ice agents and trying to save their neighbors. for all the hemming and hawing during 2024 about how democracy was an elite concern, the elites gave up far more quickly than average people.
October 24, 2025 at 1:51 PM
ordinary americans are filming ice agents and trying to save their neighbors. for all the hemming and hawing during 2024 about how democracy was an elite concern, the elites gave up far more quickly than average people.
Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)
Some exceptions but a good rule of thumb to understand which federal employees will be paid during the shutdown is whether their job involves carrying a gun.
No gun, no paycheck. open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...
No gun, no paycheck. open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...
October 24, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Some exceptions but a good rule of thumb to understand which federal employees will be paid during the shutdown is whether their job involves carrying a gun.
No gun, no paycheck. open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...
No gun, no paycheck. open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...
Reposted by Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis)
New, from me: Trump is prioritizing paying the armed forces over other federal employees during a shutdown. He is trying to win over the rank and file even as he tells military leaders to target “the enemy within.” 🧵
open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...
open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...
The risks of letting Trump become the military paymaster
Trump will demand their loyalty in return
open.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 12:20 PM
New, from me: Trump is prioritizing paying the armed forces over other federal employees during a shutdown. He is trying to win over the rank and file even as he tells military leaders to target “the enemy within.” 🧵
open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...
open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...