Christopher Peters
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statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters
@statwonk.bsky.social
810 followers 1.2K following 440 posts

Dad, Partner. Statistician-Econometrician-Engineer. AI Developer. Decision theory. Game theory. #autisticpride #9 at Zapier, first DS

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Political science 19%
Engineering 18%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Christopher Peters

econberger.bsky.social
Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 4d
"These mass layoff announcements have not been representative of what most companies in the United States are doing; they're outliers that get a lot of attention... maybe finally other firms start following their footstep, but so far it has not happened."

www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ups-l...
Layoff panic is hiding a surprising reality about the job market
It will take a lot more Amazon-sized layoffs for the job market to actually take a hit.
www.businessinsider.com

Reposted by Christopher Peters

econberger.bsky.social
Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 4d
“Lay-offs get a lot of the attention, but weak hiring has been much more important in explaining the cooling that we’ve seen in the labour market.”

Thanks to Stephanie Stacey at @financialtimes.com for chatting w/me about all those scary layoff headlines!

www.ft.com/content/fabb...
Corporate job losses mount amid tightening economy and AI growth
Recent cuts mark end of job security for high-earning knowledge workers whose ranks grew since pandemic
www.ft.com

Reposted by Christopher Peters

econberger.bsky.social
Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 4d
Since were enduring another round of Challenger discourse, a reminder -

It’s has some directional signal (when it goes up, so do superior layoff indicators) but the magnitudes are wildly off. Look at those y axes!

(No access to computer so chart not updated)

Reposted by Christopher Peters

cnbc.com
CNBC @cnbc.com · 5d
FAA to cut flights by 10% at 40 major airports due to government shutdown
FAA to cut flights by 10% at 40 major airports due to government shutdown
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced Wednesday afternoon that he will be reducing flight capacity by 10% at 40 major airports.
cnb.cx

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 6d
> President Donald Trump’s disapproval rating has reached an all time high, according to a new poll from CNN.

> About 63% of voters disapprove of Trump’s job as president, numerically reaching the highest disapproval rating across both of his terms in CNN polling.

www.masslive.com/politics/202...
Latest Donald Trump polls: Disapproval worse than after Jan. 6. Here’s why
A new poll has found that President Donald Trump's disapproval rating has reached its highest point across both his terms.
www.masslive.com

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 10d
"I only want intervals" - said no one ever

Reposted by Christopher Peters, David Darmofal

larryglickman.bsky.social
Larry Glickman @larryglickman.bsky.social · 10d
Cue about a dozen more think pieces about how the Democrats are out of touch and elitist.
aaronl1968.bsky.social AAron Leckinger @aaronl1968.bsky.social · 10d
Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA.), 64, hit out at SNAP users, saying those without a month’s supply of food in their pantries didn’t deserve the help, “stop smoking crack”
www.thedailybeast.com/maga-rep-hig...

Reposted by Christopher Peters

climatecasino.net
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 10d
Arctic sea-ice extent currently ranks 5th lowest for the date (JAXA data) since 1989.

Will there be a record low maximum in a few months? The Climate 8-ball quoted Horace, "Great effort is required to arrest decay."

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 10d
For slowly changing things, I think typically yes (bc wikipedia-representative data is in there). For recent temporalities, it can typically fetch exogenous data.

The cases where neither is true, I find it’s bc the data is strictly private (eg- some financial derivative data).

Reposted by Christopher Peters

rhymeswithspecimen.bsky.social
Jessamyn Dukes @rhymeswithspecimen.bsky.social · 11d
sometimes I think math is a whole extremely-long running inside joke that's not actually very funny

Reposted by Christopher Peters, Michael D. McDonald

carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 11d
You know it’s serious when corporates begin to complain.

$DAL

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Elizabeth Saunders, Richard S.J. Tol , and 25 more

tyleraking.com
Tyler King @tyleraking.com · 11d
FL is moving forward w/ plan to end all childhood vaccine mandates. Starting with hepatitis B, chickenpox, and the bacteria causing meningitis and pneumonia. Then next year GOP FL legislature is expected to revisit 1977 law re: whooping cough, measles, polio, rubella, mumps, diphtheria, and tetanus.

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 13d
Plus, the models can collect and use data. That’s another major source of information for reducing surprise.

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 13d
Personally I identify a lot of errors, and I’m sure others do as well. So I think the information from people has a strong effect on identifying the errors (the idea people supply the judgement and the models follow instructions).

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 13d
The models are retrained on their errors. Granted that is currently a slow process today, but many errors are reduced with each update.

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 13d
Practically they’re all statistical models, and we can evaluate the utility they produce. I think it’s reasonable to include interpretable linear models in the set.

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 13d
My point being that it would take me a lot longer, and in my mind that’s pretty intelligent (and one example). Plus, it’s pretty easy to identify things they (practically) understand relative to certain human populations.

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 13d
AI is short-hand for a statistical model, so admittedly I don’t find that answer controversial.

eg- we could have people respond a la lmarena.ai/leaderboard, and compare.

That said, GPT and Claude can write and upgrade a skew generalized t implementation for me (even if yes they make mistakes).
Overview Leaderboard | LMArena
Compare and explore top-performing models across different benchmarks.
lmarena.ai

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 13d
AI’s smarter than all of us, and gee what an effect on operating leverage / net income?

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 13d
I think AI’s smarter than all of us, especially rapture people. :)

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 13d
> An ex-Intel CEO’s mission to build a Christian AI: ‘hasten the coming of Christ’s return’

Intel’s stock is up ~ 70% since this man retired from being CEO.

www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
An ex-Intel CEO’s mission to build a Christian AI: ‘hasten the coming of Christ’s return’
Patrick Gelsinger, executive chairman of Gloo, has made it his mission to advance Christian principles in Silicon Valley
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Christopher Peters

followtheh.bsky.social
Tom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 13d
$SPX is plus 43 basis points, 41 of it is NVDA

Reposted by Christopher Peters, Sebastian Karcher, Barrett , and 2 more

ruben.the100.ci
Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 13d
I built a DAG diagram with garden hoses for teaching.
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
me with some garden hoses connected in a X -> Z <- Y fashion. If I shut the valve at Z, water from X spills out at Y

Reposted by Joe R. Feagin, Efrén O. Pérez, Philip Nel , and 9 more

broadwaybabyto.bsky.social
Kelly @broadwaybabyto.bsky.social · 14d
The Walton family (who own Walmart) are worth over $400 billion, yet many of their employees are on SNAP.

Bezos is worth over $400 billion, many Amazon employees require SNAP.

The people who need help are not the problem.

It’s corporate greed. It’s an unwillingness to pay a living wage.

Reposted by Christopher Peters

justinwolfers.bsky.social
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 14d
"You and I could try and talk about this like it were economics or like it were international relations, but it's not. It's a soap opera. It's Sons and Daughters. It's Home and Away. It's Neighbours. And it's going to be a soap opera that goes on and on for the next three and a half years."

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 16d
It’s best to begin by thinking about causal relationships or approximate them using AI (the process of identifying causes and their effects).

The potential for utility depends on the quality and quantity of our identifications (relative to our current understanding).

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 16d
Yes, any entity that leads a large scale genocide might lose their money. Not super controversial.

statwonk.bsky.social
Christopher Peters @statwonk.bsky.social · 16d
Obviously, Europe and the US should give Russia’s $230 billion in foreign reserves to Ukraine.

Nobody’s going to blame them for table stakes.

Reposted by Christopher Peters

collapseaphorisms.bsky.social
Ian@collapseaphorisms @collapseaphorisms.bsky.social · 17d
"I can't recall seeing a global heatwave on this scale before.

Forecasts continue to show global average temperatures spiking thanks to heatwaves (relative to average) across the NH & Antarctica.

It's likely average global temperatures will set new records."

(Met4Cast)

#collapse

Reposted by Christopher Peters, Mohammad Atari

rmcelreath.bsky.social
Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 18d
When there is a random way to do something, there is a less random way that is better but requires more thought. In this case, regression models that make no sense don't belong in a multiverse analysis. An inferential regression without a causal justification is like an opinion without reasons.