Christopher Peters
@statwonk.bsky.social
Dad, Partner. Statistician-Econometrician-Engineer. AI Developer. Decision theory. Game theory. #autisticpride #9 at Zapier, first DS
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Since were enduring another round of Challenger discourse, a reminder -
It’s has some directional signal (when it goes up, so do superior layoff indicators) but the magnitudes are wildly off. Look at those y axes!
(No access to computer so chart not updated)
It’s has some directional signal (when it goes up, so do superior layoff indicators) but the magnitudes are wildly off. Look at those y axes!
(No access to computer so chart not updated)
November 6, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Since were enduring another round of Challenger discourse, a reminder -
It’s has some directional signal (when it goes up, so do superior layoff indicators) but the magnitudes are wildly off. Look at those y axes!
(No access to computer so chart not updated)
It’s has some directional signal (when it goes up, so do superior layoff indicators) but the magnitudes are wildly off. Look at those y axes!
(No access to computer so chart not updated)
Reposted by Christopher Peters
“Lay-offs get a lot of the attention, but weak hiring has been much more important in explaining the cooling that we’ve seen in the labour market.”
Thanks to Stephanie Stacey at @financialtimes.com for chatting w/me about all those scary layoff headlines!
www.ft.com/content/fabb...
Thanks to Stephanie Stacey at @financialtimes.com for chatting w/me about all those scary layoff headlines!
www.ft.com/content/fabb...
Corporate job losses mount amid tightening economy and AI growth
Recent cuts mark end of job security for high-earning knowledge workers whose ranks grew since pandemic
www.ft.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:51 AM
“Lay-offs get a lot of the attention, but weak hiring has been much more important in explaining the cooling that we’ve seen in the labour market.”
Thanks to Stephanie Stacey at @financialtimes.com for chatting w/me about all those scary layoff headlines!
www.ft.com/content/fabb...
Thanks to Stephanie Stacey at @financialtimes.com for chatting w/me about all those scary layoff headlines!
www.ft.com/content/fabb...
Reposted by Christopher Peters
"These mass layoff announcements have not been representative of what most companies in the United States are doing; they're outliers that get a lot of attention... maybe finally other firms start following their footstep, but so far it has not happened."
www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ups-l...
www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ups-l...
Layoff panic is hiding a surprising reality about the job market
It will take a lot more Amazon-sized layoffs for the job market to actually take a hit.
www.businessinsider.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:57 AM
"These mass layoff announcements have not been representative of what most companies in the United States are doing; they're outliers that get a lot of attention... maybe finally other firms start following their footstep, but so far it has not happened."
www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ups-l...
www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ups-l...
Reposted by Christopher Peters
FAA to cut flights by 10% at 40 major airports due to government shutdown
FAA to cut flights by 10% at 40 major airports due to government shutdown
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced Wednesday afternoon that he will be reducing flight capacity by 10% at 40 major airports.
cnb.cx
November 5, 2025 at 9:52 PM
FAA to cut flights by 10% at 40 major airports due to government shutdown
> President Donald Trump’s disapproval rating has reached an all time high, according to a new poll from CNN.
> About 63% of voters disapprove of Trump’s job as president, numerically reaching the highest disapproval rating across both of his terms in CNN polling.
www.masslive.com/politics/202...
> About 63% of voters disapprove of Trump’s job as president, numerically reaching the highest disapproval rating across both of his terms in CNN polling.
www.masslive.com/politics/202...
Latest Donald Trump polls: Disapproval worse than after Jan. 6. Here’s why
A new poll has found that President Donald Trump's disapproval rating has reached its highest point across both his terms.
www.masslive.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:55 PM
> President Donald Trump’s disapproval rating has reached an all time high, according to a new poll from CNN.
> About 63% of voters disapprove of Trump’s job as president, numerically reaching the highest disapproval rating across both of his terms in CNN polling.
www.masslive.com/politics/202...
> About 63% of voters disapprove of Trump’s job as president, numerically reaching the highest disapproval rating across both of his terms in CNN polling.
www.masslive.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Christopher Peters
That's just frequents statistics.
sometimes I think math is a whole extremely-long running inside joke that's not actually very funny
October 31, 2025 at 3:52 AM
That's just frequents statistics.
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Arctic sea-ice extent currently ranks 5th lowest for the date (JAXA data) since 1989.
Will there be a record low maximum in a few months? The Climate 8-ball quoted Horace, "Great effort is required to arrest decay."
Will there be a record low maximum in a few months? The Climate 8-ball quoted Horace, "Great effort is required to arrest decay."
October 31, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Arctic sea-ice extent currently ranks 5th lowest for the date (JAXA data) since 1989.
Will there be a record low maximum in a few months? The Climate 8-ball quoted Horace, "Great effort is required to arrest decay."
Will there be a record low maximum in a few months? The Climate 8-ball quoted Horace, "Great effort is required to arrest decay."
Reposted by Christopher Peters
In re: the utterly abject poverty of the Discourse™️ about how Democrats Must Stop Talking Funny Because It Alienates Real Folkz (bsky.app/profile/mcop...) & Must Do A Popularism & Must Adopt My 6 Favorite Policies & Must Embrace Abundance Like The Authoritarians (bsky.app/profile/mcop...) Etc. Etc.
Cue about a dozen more think pieces about how the Democrats are out of touch and elitist.
Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA.), 64, hit out at SNAP users, saying those without a month’s supply of food in their pantries didn’t deserve the help, “stop smoking crack”
www.thedailybeast.com/maga-rep-hig...
www.thedailybeast.com/maga-rep-hig...
October 31, 2025 at 4:20 PM
In re: the utterly abject poverty of the Discourse™️ about how Democrats Must Stop Talking Funny Because It Alienates Real Folkz (bsky.app/profile/mcop...) & Must Do A Popularism & Must Adopt My 6 Favorite Policies & Must Embrace Abundance Like The Authoritarians (bsky.app/profile/mcop...) Etc. Etc.
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Does Florida depend on tourism from families with children or
FL is moving forward w/ plan to end all childhood vaccine mandates. Starting with hepatitis B, chickenpox, and the bacteria causing meningitis and pneumonia. Then next year GOP FL legislature is expected to revisit 1977 law re: whooping cough, measles, polio, rubella, mumps, diphtheria, and tetanus.
October 31, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Does Florida depend on tourism from families with children or
Reposted by Christopher Peters
You know it’s serious when corporates begin to complain.
$DAL
$DAL
October 30, 2025 at 5:56 PM
You know it’s serious when corporates begin to complain.
$DAL
$DAL
Reposted by Christopher Peters
$SPX is plus 43 basis points, 41 of it is NVDA
October 28, 2025 at 7:10 PM
$SPX is plus 43 basis points, 41 of it is NVDA
Reposted by Christopher Peters
The Walton family (who own Walmart) are worth over $400 billion, yet many of their employees are on SNAP.
Bezos is worth over $400 billion, many Amazon employees require SNAP.
The people who need help are not the problem.
It’s corporate greed. It’s an unwillingness to pay a living wage.
Bezos is worth over $400 billion, many Amazon employees require SNAP.
The people who need help are not the problem.
It’s corporate greed. It’s an unwillingness to pay a living wage.
October 27, 2025 at 9:08 PM
The Walton family (who own Walmart) are worth over $400 billion, yet many of their employees are on SNAP.
Bezos is worth over $400 billion, many Amazon employees require SNAP.
The people who need help are not the problem.
It’s corporate greed. It’s an unwillingness to pay a living wage.
Bezos is worth over $400 billion, many Amazon employees require SNAP.
The people who need help are not the problem.
It’s corporate greed. It’s an unwillingness to pay a living wage.
Reposted by Christopher Peters
I built a DAG diagram with garden hoses for teaching.
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
October 28, 2025 at 5:50 PM
I built a DAG diagram with garden hoses for teaching.
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
Pictured: a collider bias diagram, inspired by a blocked pipe situation I experienced (which I credit with giving me the intuition though it also ruined my belongings in the flooded cellar).
> An ex-Intel CEO’s mission to build a Christian AI: ‘hasten the coming of Christ’s return’
Intel’s stock is up ~ 70% since this man retired from being CEO.
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
Intel’s stock is up ~ 70% since this man retired from being CEO.
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
An ex-Intel CEO’s mission to build a Christian AI: ‘hasten the coming of Christ’s return’
Patrick Gelsinger, executive chairman of Gloo, has made it his mission to advance Christian principles in Silicon Valley
www.theguardian.com
October 28, 2025 at 7:16 PM
> An ex-Intel CEO’s mission to build a Christian AI: ‘hasten the coming of Christ’s return’
Intel’s stock is up ~ 70% since this man retired from being CEO.
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
Intel’s stock is up ~ 70% since this man retired from being CEO.
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
Reposted by Christopher Peters
"You and I could try and talk about this like it were economics or like it were international relations, but it's not. It's a soap opera. It's Sons and Daughters. It's Home and Away. It's Neighbours. And it's going to be a soap opera that goes on and on for the next three and a half years."
October 27, 2025 at 4:46 PM
"You and I could try and talk about this like it were economics or like it were international relations, but it's not. It's a soap opera. It's Sons and Daughters. It's Home and Away. It's Neighbours. And it's going to be a soap opera that goes on and on for the next three and a half years."
Reposted by Christopher Peters
This era of real-estate-developer-dictatorship is putting the bulldozer to use as a political tool in both colonial and domestic fascist contexts.
Rdg the new issue of @thefunambulist.bsky.social on “bulldozer politics,” on bulldozers as key weapons — of demolition and clearing-for-colonization — in Gaza and elsewhere. Glad to see an interview w/ Francesca Ammon, author of Bulldozer: Demolition + Clearance of the Postwar Landscape, here
Issue: Bulldozer Politics
The Precise Political Order Contained in the Apparent Chaos of Rubble in Palestine, India, Colombia, Brazil, the US, France, Egypt…
thefunambulist.net
October 25, 2025 at 5:46 AM
This era of real-estate-developer-dictatorship is putting the bulldozer to use as a political tool in both colonial and domestic fascist contexts.
Reposted by Christopher Peters
When there is a random way to do something, there is a less random way that is better but requires more thought. In this case, regression models that make no sense don't belong in a multiverse analysis. An inferential regression without a causal justification is like an opinion without reasons.
October 23, 2025 at 4:34 PM
When there is a random way to do something, there is a less random way that is better but requires more thought. In this case, regression models that make no sense don't belong in a multiverse analysis. An inferential regression without a causal justification is like an opinion without reasons.
Reposted by Christopher Peters
"I can't recall seeing a global heatwave on this scale before.
Forecasts continue to show global average temperatures spiking thanks to heatwaves (relative to average) across the NH & Antarctica.
It's likely average global temperatures will set new records."
(Met4Cast)
#collapse
Forecasts continue to show global average temperatures spiking thanks to heatwaves (relative to average) across the NH & Antarctica.
It's likely average global temperatures will set new records."
(Met4Cast)
#collapse
October 25, 2025 at 9:41 AM
"I can't recall seeing a global heatwave on this scale before.
Forecasts continue to show global average temperatures spiking thanks to heatwaves (relative to average) across the NH & Antarctica.
It's likely average global temperatures will set new records."
(Met4Cast)
#collapse
Forecasts continue to show global average temperatures spiking thanks to heatwaves (relative to average) across the NH & Antarctica.
It's likely average global temperatures will set new records."
(Met4Cast)
#collapse
Obviously, Europe and the US should give Russia’s $230 billion in foreign reserves to Ukraine.
Nobody’s going to blame them for table stakes.
Nobody’s going to blame them for table stakes.
October 25, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Obviously, Europe and the US should give Russia’s $230 billion in foreign reserves to Ukraine.
Nobody’s going to blame them for table stakes.
Nobody’s going to blame them for table stakes.
Reposted by Christopher Peters
The corruption of the US Supreme Court has arguably been the most serious single contributor to the US's transformation into autocracy
Reading an article titled "Why didn't Brazilian democracy die?" and a key part of the story is a Supreme Court that actually did its job
August 25, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The corruption of the US Supreme Court has arguably been the most serious single contributor to the US's transformation into autocracy
Reposted by Christopher Peters
The American media's only weakness: transparent pretexts and obvious lies, which it can't refute without feeling partisan
August 20, 2025 at 2:42 AM
The American media's only weakness: transparent pretexts and obvious lies, which it can't refute without feeling partisan
Reposted by Christopher Peters
Not much: open.substack.com/pub/grimoire...
No, Conscientiousness Hasn't Collapsed Among Young People in Recent Years
How the Financial Times created a misleading meme and contributed to the firehose of nonsense on screen panic
open.substack.com
August 18, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Not much: open.substack.com/pub/grimoire...
Reposted by Christopher Peters
I recently learned that our statistics book (bayesrulesbook.com) cannot be listed on syllabi in Florida.
August 14, 2025 at 6:50 PM
I recently learned that our statistics book (bayesrulesbook.com) cannot be listed on syllabi in Florida.
Reposted by Christopher Peters
I will die angry at joe manchin for this shit
Child poverty among Hispanic and Latino Americans tripled after the program ended, jumping to almost 25%.
Child poverty among Hispanic and Latino Americans tripled after the program ended, jumping to almost 25%.
It was just 4 years ago that this country cut the child poverty rate almost in half. Then we just....stopped www.census.gov/library/stor...
August 18, 2025 at 5:19 PM
I will die angry at joe manchin for this shit
Child poverty among Hispanic and Latino Americans tripled after the program ended, jumping to almost 25%.
Child poverty among Hispanic and Latino Americans tripled after the program ended, jumping to almost 25%.
Reposted by Christopher Peters
🚀 gratia 0.11.0 is out!
Now has a paper in JOSS — please cite 📄 doi.org/10.21105/jos...
Experimental parallel processing ⚡
New assemble() for building plots 🎨
Better support for complex families + new diagnostics 🧪
Lots of bug fixes + polish ✨
👉 gavinsimpson.github.io/gratia/
#Rstats
Now has a paper in JOSS — please cite 📄 doi.org/10.21105/jos...
Experimental parallel processing ⚡
New assemble() for building plots 🎨
Better support for complex families + new diagnostics 🧪
Lots of bug fixes + polish ✨
👉 gavinsimpson.github.io/gratia/
#Rstats
An R package for working with generalized additive models
Graceful 'ggplot'-based graphics and utility functions for working with generalized additive models (GAMs) fitted using the 'mgcv' package.
gavinsimpson.github.io
August 18, 2025 at 6:32 PM
🚀 gratia 0.11.0 is out!
Now has a paper in JOSS — please cite 📄 doi.org/10.21105/jos...
Experimental parallel processing ⚡
New assemble() for building plots 🎨
Better support for complex families + new diagnostics 🧪
Lots of bug fixes + polish ✨
👉 gavinsimpson.github.io/gratia/
#Rstats
Now has a paper in JOSS — please cite 📄 doi.org/10.21105/jos...
Experimental parallel processing ⚡
New assemble() for building plots 🎨
Better support for complex families + new diagnostics 🧪
Lots of bug fixes + polish ✨
👉 gavinsimpson.github.io/gratia/
#Rstats