Prof. Eliot Jacobson
@climatecasino.net
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science, casino consultant, author of 4 books: 3 on casino games & 1 poetry book. Now I volunteer, walk a lot & feed local critters.
Climate blog: climatecasino.net
Casino blog: advancedadvantageplay.com
Climate blog: climatecasino.net
Casino blog: advancedadvantageplay.com
There's about a 5% chance of a tornado here in the Santa Barbara area today ... Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Source: x.com/nadocast
Source: x.com/nadocast
December 25, 2025 at 6:05 PM
There's about a 5% chance of a tornado here in the Santa Barbara area today ... Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Source: x.com/nadocast
Source: x.com/nadocast
It's #ClimateCasino time!
The Climate Casino posted an OVER/UNDER fake-wager for total human population for Jan. 1, 2026 of 8,250,000,000. The OVER will win.
For Jan. 1, 2027, the OVER/UNDER is set at 8,345,000,000 humans.
Merry birth of invisible friends day everyone!
The Climate Casino posted an OVER/UNDER fake-wager for total human population for Jan. 1, 2026 of 8,250,000,000. The OVER will win.
For Jan. 1, 2027, the OVER/UNDER is set at 8,345,000,000 humans.
Merry birth of invisible friends day everyone!
December 25, 2025 at 5:24 PM
It's #ClimateCasino time!
The Climate Casino posted an OVER/UNDER fake-wager for total human population for Jan. 1, 2026 of 8,250,000,000. The OVER will win.
For Jan. 1, 2027, the OVER/UNDER is set at 8,345,000,000 humans.
Merry birth of invisible friends day everyone!
The Climate Casino posted an OVER/UNDER fake-wager for total human population for Jan. 1, 2026 of 8,250,000,000. The OVER will win.
For Jan. 1, 2027, the OVER/UNDER is set at 8,345,000,000 humans.
Merry birth of invisible friends day everyone!
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 25, 2025 ~ Airing grievances.
"If East Antarctica began to collapse, losing ice at Holocene-like rates, global sea levels would rise much faster than current projections assume."
www.earth.com/news/antarct...
"If East Antarctica began to collapse, losing ice at Holocene-like rates, global sea levels would rise much faster than current projections assume."
www.earth.com/news/antarct...
Antarctica completely collapsed 9,000 years ago under similar climate conditions as Earth has today
9,000 years ago, ocean heat caused rapid ice collapse in East Antarctica, raising concerns about future sea levels.
www.earth.com
December 25, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 25, 2025 ~ Airing grievances.
"If East Antarctica began to collapse, losing ice at Holocene-like rates, global sea levels would rise much faster than current projections assume."
www.earth.com/news/antarct...
"If East Antarctica began to collapse, losing ice at Holocene-like rates, global sea levels would rise much faster than current projections assume."
www.earth.com/news/antarct...
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"This is just one of the big jumps instead of the little step-by-step changes that are easier to take. People have changed the climate of the world. Now they’re waiting for the old days to come back."
www.goodreads.com/book/show/52...
"This is just one of the big jumps instead of the little step-by-step changes that are easier to take. People have changed the climate of the world. Now they’re waiting for the old days to come back."
www.goodreads.com/book/show/52...
Parable of the Sower (Earthseed, #1)
In 2024, with the world descending into madness and ana…
www.goodreads.com
December 25, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"This is just one of the big jumps instead of the little step-by-step changes that are easier to take. People have changed the climate of the world. Now they’re waiting for the old days to come back."
www.goodreads.com/book/show/52...
"This is just one of the big jumps instead of the little step-by-step changes that are easier to take. People have changed the climate of the world. Now they’re waiting for the old days to come back."
www.goodreads.com/book/show/52...
2025 will see the warmest Chirstmas on record in many parts of the U.S., with some areas of the Central US experiencing temperatures more than 40°F (22°C) above average.
The Climate 8-Ball is too busy reading some unredacted files to comment.
Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com
The Climate 8-Ball is too busy reading some unredacted files to comment.
Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com
December 24, 2025 at 8:20 PM
2025 will see the warmest Chirstmas on record in many parts of the U.S., with some areas of the Central US experiencing temperatures more than 40°F (22°C) above average.
The Climate 8-Ball is too busy reading some unredacted files to comment.
Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com
The Climate 8-Ball is too busy reading some unredacted files to comment.
Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com
Code Yikes!
Last night here in Santa Barbara we got more than 25% of our average annual rainfall in a period of about 6 hours ... my dog was not impressed.
Last night here in Santa Barbara we got more than 25% of our average annual rainfall in a period of about 6 hours ... my dog was not impressed.
December 24, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Code Yikes!
Last night here in Santa Barbara we got more than 25% of our average annual rainfall in a period of about 6 hours ... my dog was not impressed.
Last night here in Santa Barbara we got more than 25% of our average annual rainfall in a period of about 6 hours ... my dog was not impressed.
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 24, 2025 ~ Storm world.
"... a hotter planet will likely mean fewer total hurricanes, but higher percentage will be large, powerful storms."
www.npr.org/2025/12/24/n...
"... a hotter planet will likely mean fewer total hurricanes, but higher percentage will be large, powerful storms."
www.npr.org/2025/12/24/n...
What does climate change look like? This year's hurricane season is one example
The Atlantic hurricane season produced a normal number of storms, compared to more frequent storms in recent years. But the storms that did form were huge.
www.npr.org
December 24, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 24, 2025 ~ Storm world.
"... a hotter planet will likely mean fewer total hurricanes, but higher percentage will be large, powerful storms."
www.npr.org/2025/12/24/n...
"... a hotter planet will likely mean fewer total hurricanes, but higher percentage will be large, powerful storms."
www.npr.org/2025/12/24/n...
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"If they would rather die, they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population." — Ebenezer Scrooge
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/40421/...
"If they would rather die, they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population." — Ebenezer Scrooge
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/40421/...
A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens: 9780553212440 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
Merry Christmas, everyone! “Bah!” said Scrooge. “Humbug!” With those famous words unfolds a tale that renews the joy and caring that are Christmas. Whether we read it aloud with...
www.penguinrandomhouse.com
December 24, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"If they would rather die, they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population." — Ebenezer Scrooge
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/40421/...
"If they would rather die, they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population." — Ebenezer Scrooge
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/40421/...
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"What we can do—and need to do—in the next 10 years is adopt the policies that will put us on a path to deep decarbonization by 2050."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/633968...
"What we can do—and need to do—in the next 10 years is adopt the policies that will put us on a path to deep decarbonization by 2050."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/633968...
How to Avoid a Climate Disaster by Bill Gates: 9780593081853 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
#1 NEW YORK TIMES BEST SELLER • In this urgent, authoritative book, Bill Gates sets out a wide-ranging, practical—and accessible—plan for how the world can get to zero greenhouse...
www.penguinrandomhouse.com
December 23, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"What we can do—and need to do—in the next 10 years is adopt the policies that will put us on a path to deep decarbonization by 2050."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/633968...
"What we can do—and need to do—in the next 10 years is adopt the policies that will put us on a path to deep decarbonization by 2050."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/633968...
It looks like the correct number for a Category 6 hurricane is 200mph sustained winds or higher. That's yet to happen in the Atlantic, where the record is 190mph, but has happened in the Pacific.
Cat 2: 96 - 110
Cat 3: 111 - 129
Cat 4: 130 - 156
Cat 5: 157 - 199
Cat 6: 200+
Cat 2: 96 - 110
Cat 3: 111 - 129
Cat 4: 130 - 156
Cat 5: 157 - 199
Cat 6: 200+
December 23, 2025 at 2:50 PM
It looks like the correct number for a Category 6 hurricane is 200mph sustained winds or higher. That's yet to happen in the Atlantic, where the record is 190mph, but has happened in the Pacific.
Cat 2: 96 - 110
Cat 3: 111 - 129
Cat 4: 130 - 156
Cat 5: 157 - 199
Cat 6: 200+
Cat 2: 96 - 110
Cat 3: 111 - 129
Cat 4: 130 - 156
Cat 5: 157 - 199
Cat 6: 200+
Here's my latest appearance on "The MEER Podcast," just released today.
"we're up to the category 6 hurricane level now where we have to start thinking about that as a realistic possibility every year."
Please like, share, subscribe and enjoy!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip_5...
"we're up to the category 6 hurricane level now where we have to start thinking about that as a realistic possibility every year."
Please like, share, subscribe and enjoy!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip_5...
MEER Podcast - 11. Eliot Jacobson | A Climate Reality Check
YouTube video by MEER SRM
www.youtube.com
December 22, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Here's my latest appearance on "The MEER Podcast," just released today.
"we're up to the category 6 hurricane level now where we have to start thinking about that as a realistic possibility every year."
Please like, share, subscribe and enjoy!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip_5...
"we're up to the category 6 hurricane level now where we have to start thinking about that as a realistic possibility every year."
Please like, share, subscribe and enjoy!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip_5...
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"Nothing in predictive climate science is more cerain that the extinction of many of the world's mountain-dwelling species. We can even foretell which will be the first to go."
www.goodreads.com/book/show/48...
"Nothing in predictive climate science is more cerain that the extinction of many of the world's mountain-dwelling species. We can even foretell which will be the first to go."
www.goodreads.com/book/show/48...
The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and…
Sometime this century the day will arrive when the huma…
www.goodreads.com
December 22, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"Nothing in predictive climate science is more cerain that the extinction of many of the world's mountain-dwelling species. We can even foretell which will be the first to go."
www.goodreads.com/book/show/48...
"Nothing in predictive climate science is more cerain that the extinction of many of the world's mountain-dwelling species. We can even foretell which will be the first to go."
www.goodreads.com/book/show/48...
The Arctic continues to set new record daily lows for sea-ice extent, putting early 2026 on track for a potential record low sea-ice extent maximum.
December 22, 2025 at 2:23 PM
The Arctic continues to set new record daily lows for sea-ice extent, putting early 2026 on track for a potential record low sea-ice extent maximum.
A unique doomer study, must read!
However, "doomer questions 1/2" simplify what it means to be a doomer to the "it's too late" meme. "Too late to save global industrial civilization" is different than "too late to save what we can of the natural world."
www.mediatechdemocracy.com/are-canadian...
However, "doomer questions 1/2" simplify what it means to be a doomer to the "it's too late" meme. "Too late to save global industrial civilization" is different than "too late to save what we can of the natural world."
www.mediatechdemocracy.com/are-canadian...
Are Canadians Climate Doomers? — Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy
www.mediatechdemocracy.com
December 21, 2025 at 5:25 PM
A unique doomer study, must read!
However, "doomer questions 1/2" simplify what it means to be a doomer to the "it's too late" meme. "Too late to save global industrial civilization" is different than "too late to save what we can of the natural world."
www.mediatechdemocracy.com/are-canadian...
However, "doomer questions 1/2" simplify what it means to be a doomer to the "it's too late" meme. "Too late to save global industrial civilization" is different than "too late to save what we can of the natural world."
www.mediatechdemocracy.com/are-canadian...
An absolute freak show of record high temperatures will take place this coming week in the US.
On Christmas day, large parts of the central US will see temperatures more than 22°C (40°F) above average.
Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com
On Christmas day, large parts of the central US will see temperatures more than 22°C (40°F) above average.
Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com
December 21, 2025 at 2:14 PM
An absolute freak show of record high temperatures will take place this coming week in the US.
On Christmas day, large parts of the central US will see temperatures more than 22°C (40°F) above average.
Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com
On Christmas day, large parts of the central US will see temperatures more than 22°C (40°F) above average.
Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 21, 2025 ~ Darker days ahead.
"Greater warmth enables pests to develop faster, produce more generations each year and attack crops for longer as winters shorten."
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
"Greater warmth enables pests to develop faster, produce more generations each year and attack crops for longer as winters shorten."
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
‘Borrowed time’: crop pests and food losses supercharged by climate crisis
Heating means pests breeding and spreading faster, warn scientists, with simplified current food system already vulnerable
www.theguardian.com
December 21, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 21, 2025 ~ Darker days ahead.
"Greater warmth enables pests to develop faster, produce more generations each year and attack crops for longer as winters shorten."
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
"Greater warmth enables pests to develop faster, produce more generations each year and attack crops for longer as winters shorten."
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"I have said for years that we are faced with a choice that can no longer be postponed or evaded. Evolve or perish. Adapt or die. That is the universe in which all species live. Those are the rules that govern all life."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/801000...
"I have said for years that we are faced with a choice that can no longer be postponed or evaded. Evolve or perish. Adapt or die. That is the universe in which all species live. Those are the rules that govern all life."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/801000...
Confronting Collapse by Michael C. Ruppert: 9781603582995 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books
The book that inspired the movie Collapse. The world is running short of energy-especially cheap, easy-to-find oil. Shortages, along with resulting price increases, threaten industrialized civilizati...
www.penguinrandomhouse.com
December 21, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"I have said for years that we are faced with a choice that can no longer be postponed or evaded. Evolve or perish. Adapt or die. That is the universe in which all species live. Those are the rules that govern all life."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/801000...
"I have said for years that we are faced with a choice that can no longer be postponed or evaded. Evolve or perish. Adapt or die. That is the universe in which all species live. Those are the rules that govern all life."
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/801000...
Yet another 'Science Talk' must watch.
"Well, I sure hope we can stay beneath 3°C because 3°C is a very different world. Really, really dangerous, scary world."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kcO...
"Well, I sure hope we can stay beneath 3°C because 3°C is a very different world. Really, really dangerous, scary world."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kcO...
Greenland Ice Sheet I Life on A Little-Known Planet I The Biggest Threat to Biodiversity and Planet
YouTube video by Science Talk
www.youtube.com
December 20, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Yet another 'Science Talk' must watch.
"Well, I sure hope we can stay beneath 3°C because 3°C is a very different world. Really, really dangerous, scary world."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kcO...
"Well, I sure hope we can stay beneath 3°C because 3°C is a very different world. Really, really dangerous, scary world."
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kcO...
The good news: global sea-ice extent is not in uncharted territory at the moment.
December 20, 2025 at 2:21 PM
The good news: global sea-ice extent is not in uncharted territory at the moment.
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"With the power down, soon you wouldn’t have water coming out of your tap... You will become malnourished. You won’t know whether to stay or go. You will fear being violently killed before starving to death."
www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptati...
"With the power down, soon you wouldn’t have water coming out of your tap... You will become malnourished. You won’t know whether to stay or go. You will fear being violently killed before starving to death."
www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptati...
December 20, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"With the power down, soon you wouldn’t have water coming out of your tap... You will become malnourished. You won’t know whether to stay or go. You will fear being violently killed before starving to death."
www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptati...
"With the power down, soon you wouldn’t have water coming out of your tap... You will become malnourished. You won’t know whether to stay or go. You will fear being violently killed before starving to death."
www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptati...
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 20, 2025 ~ Choking on hope.
"Under a +2.7°C increase, projections suggest that by 2100, only around 110 glaciers would remain in Central Europe. This figure represents just 3% of today’s total."
www.sustainability-times.com/climate/new-...
"Under a +2.7°C increase, projections suggest that by 2100, only around 110 glaciers would remain in Central Europe. This figure represents just 3% of today’s total."
www.sustainability-times.com/climate/new-...
New Forecast Reveals When Thousands of Glaciers Will Disappear, Highlighting Urgent Need for Climate Action
Glaciers, the majestic giants of ice that have long adorned the world's mountain ranges, are facing an unprecedented crisis. According to a major
www.sustainability-times.com
December 20, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 20, 2025 ~ Choking on hope.
"Under a +2.7°C increase, projections suggest that by 2100, only around 110 glaciers would remain in Central Europe. This figure represents just 3% of today’s total."
www.sustainability-times.com/climate/new-...
"Under a +2.7°C increase, projections suggest that by 2100, only around 110 glaciers would remain in Central Europe. This figure represents just 3% of today’s total."
www.sustainability-times.com/climate/new-...
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society would choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the process of doing."
www.bloomsbury.com/us/field-not...
"It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society would choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the process of doing."
www.bloomsbury.com/us/field-not...
Field Notes from a Catastrophe
A new edition of the book that launched Elizabeth Kolbert's career as an environmental writer-updated with three new chapters, making it, yet again, "irrep…
www.bloomsbury.com
December 19, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Your 'doom quote' for today:
"It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society would choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the process of doing."
www.bloomsbury.com/us/field-not...
"It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society would choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the process of doing."
www.bloomsbury.com/us/field-not...
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 19, 2025 ~ Everything, everywhere, all at once
"they unfolded across regions with very different income levels, governance structures and climate readiness, yet produced strikingly similar failures."
www.forbes.com/sites/dianne...
"they unfolded across regions with very different income levels, governance structures and climate readiness, yet produced strikingly similar failures."
www.forbes.com/sites/dianne...
www.forbes.com
December 19, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Your 'moment of doom' for Dec. 19, 2025 ~ Everything, everywhere, all at once
"they unfolded across regions with very different income levels, governance structures and climate readiness, yet produced strikingly similar failures."
www.forbes.com/sites/dianne...
"they unfolded across regions with very different income levels, governance structures and climate readiness, yet produced strikingly similar failures."
www.forbes.com/sites/dianne...
"Assumption of at least a moderate El Nino beginning in 2026 leads us to the projection in Fig. 5, with global temperature reaching a minimum at or above +1.4°C within several months and then rising to a record global temperature of about +1.7°C in 2027."
mailchi.mp/caa/global-t...
mailchi.mp/caa/global-t...
December 18, 2025 at 2:42 PM
"Assumption of at least a moderate El Nino beginning in 2026 leads us to the projection in Fig. 5, with global temperature reaching a minimum at or above +1.4°C within several months and then rising to a record global temperature of about +1.7°C in 2027."
mailchi.mp/caa/global-t...
mailchi.mp/caa/global-t...
The December update shows that El Nino is now the most likely ENSO state towards late Summer in 2026.
In case you need a reminder -- that's when a lot of absorbed ocean heat concentrated in the tropical Western Pacific gets dumped into the atmosphere.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
In case you need a reminder -- that's when a lot of absorbed ocean heat concentrated in the tropical Western Pacific gets dumped into the atmosphere.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
December 18, 2025 at 2:33 PM
The December update shows that El Nino is now the most likely ENSO state towards late Summer in 2026.
In case you need a reminder -- that's when a lot of absorbed ocean heat concentrated in the tropical Western Pacific gets dumped into the atmosphere.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
In case you need a reminder -- that's when a lot of absorbed ocean heat concentrated in the tropical Western Pacific gets dumped into the atmosphere.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...