Gavin Simpson
@gsimpson.bsky.social
(Palaeo)[ecologist | limnologist] & #fakeStatistican, #rstats user, wielder of #GAMs. He/him/his. Opinions mine…
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
February 6, 2026 at 9:13 AM
I’m just so happy to hear this wonderful news Anson
February 6, 2026 at 7:25 AM
I’m just so happy to hear this wonderful news Anson
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
Ian McKellen performs “The Strangers’ Case” speech from “Sir Thomas More” on Colbert.
February 5, 2026 at 1:07 PM
Ian McKellen performs “The Strangers’ Case” speech from “Sir Thomas More” on Colbert.
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
Self-feedback loops matter. The model drafts, critiques itself, retrieves more context if needed, and refines. Everything is open-source: models, code, data store, and a new benchmark (ScholarQABench). 3/3 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
February 5, 2026 at 1:25 PM
Self-feedback loops matter. The model drafts, critiques itself, retrieves more context if needed, and refines. Everything is open-source: models, code, data store, and a new benchmark (ScholarQABench). 3/3 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
The citation problem is severe: GPT-4o fabricates 78-90% of citations when asked to cite recent papers. OpenScholar achieves citation accuracy on par with human experts by grounding responses in 45M open-access papers. 2/3
February 5, 2026 at 1:25 PM
The citation problem is severe: GPT-4o fabricates 78-90% of citations when asked to cite recent papers. OpenScholar achieves citation accuracy on par with human experts by grounding responses in 45M open-access papers. 2/3
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
I've always been a fan of what the Allen Institute is doing. New in Nature: OpenScholar, an 8B RAG model for scientific literature, outperforms GPT-4o by 6% on correctness. Experts preferred its answers over human-written ones 51%-70 of the time. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/3 🧵
February 5, 2026 at 1:24 PM
I've always been a fan of what the Allen Institute is doing. New in Nature: OpenScholar, an 8B RAG model for scientific literature, outperforms GPT-4o by 6% on correctness. Experts preferred its answers over human-written ones 51%-70 of the time. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/3 🧵
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
inspired by CLAUDE.md, I’ve started putting markdown files named after coworkers into work code repos so I can remind them to stop doing shit to the codebase that annoys me
for some reason they’re all mad at me now, which means ill be adding commands to JEREMY.md for an attitude adjustment
for some reason they’re all mad at me now, which means ill be adding commands to JEREMY.md for an attitude adjustment
February 4, 2026 at 5:32 PM
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
The publisher estimates the Bayesian Workflow book will ship in June www.routledge.com/Bayesian-Wor...
Bayesian Workflow
Bayesian statistics and statistical practice have evolved over the years, driven by advancements in theory, methods, and computational tools. This book explores the intricate workflows of applied Baye...
www.routledge.com
February 5, 2026 at 9:13 AM
The publisher estimates the Bayesian Workflow book will ship in June www.routledge.com/Bayesian-Wor...
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
Updated my “Reproducible data analysis using tidyverse R” slides in preparation for a workshop at UVA tomorrow: rpubs.com/bpbond/1392825 #rstats
RPubs - Reproducible data analysis using tidyverse R
rpubs.com
February 3, 2026 at 2:17 PM
Updated my “Reproducible data analysis using tidyverse R” slides in preparation for a workshop at UVA tomorrow: rpubs.com/bpbond/1392825 #rstats
Yes, the VOD will be available (I think at the same link) shortly after the end of the livestream and it will remain available indefinitely
February 3, 2026 at 8:06 PM
Yes, the VOD will be available (I think at the same link) shortly after the end of the livestream and it will remain available indefinitely
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
We are advertising for a Lecturer in Physical Oceanography, closing date 31 March.
If you have research interests in the shelf seas, estuarine and coastal oceans then this could be for you!
And you could do research using UEA's fleet of ocean gliders
vacancies.uea.ac.uk/vacancies/20...
If you have research interests in the shelf seas, estuarine and coastal oceans then this could be for you!
And you could do research using UEA's fleet of ocean gliders
vacancies.uea.ac.uk/vacancies/20...
Lecturer in Physical Oceanography (ATR1734) in University of East Anglia | UEA
View details and apply for this Lecturer in Physical Oceanography (ATR1734) vacancy in University of East Anglia. Faculty of Science
School of Environmental Sciences
Lecturer in Physical Oceano...
vacancies.uea.ac.uk
February 3, 2026 at 1:03 PM
We are advertising for a Lecturer in Physical Oceanography, closing date 31 March.
If you have research interests in the shelf seas, estuarine and coastal oceans then this could be for you!
And you could do research using UEA's fleet of ocean gliders
vacancies.uea.ac.uk/vacancies/20...
If you have research interests in the shelf seas, estuarine and coastal oceans then this could be for you!
And you could do research using UEA's fleet of ocean gliders
vacancies.uea.ac.uk/vacancies/20...
LOL, it’s meant to be me (the geographer) looking up to the scientists at the pinnacle of academia.
It’s from an insult the Lindzen, a noted climate, denialist made against the IPCC (as being composed of people from the bottom of the heap, like geographers)
I have two degrees in geography
It’s from an insult the Lindzen, a noted climate, denialist made against the IPCC (as being composed of people from the bottom of the heap, like geographers)
I have two degrees in geography
February 3, 2026 at 5:10 PM
LOL, it’s meant to be me (the geographer) looking up to the scientists at the pinnacle of academia.
It’s from an insult the Lindzen, a noted climate, denialist made against the IPCC (as being composed of people from the bottom of the heap, like geographers)
I have two degrees in geography
It’s from an insult the Lindzen, a noted climate, denialist made against the IPCC (as being composed of people from the bottom of the heap, like geographers)
I have two degrees in geography
Basically, they’re just GAMs but with penalised splines applied at different scales of data, average of all data, group specific smooths, subject specific random smooths etc, but the paper goes into the detail c. 2018-2019
February 3, 2026 at 2:32 PM
Basically, they’re just GAMs but with penalised splines applied at different scales of data, average of all data, group specific smooths, subject specific random smooths etc, but the paper goes into the detail c. 2018-2019
There’ll be a live Q&A—post questions in advance via the gratia GitHub Discussions (tag livestream), and upvote the ones you want answered.
Post your questions: github.com/gavinsimpson...
Post your questions: github.com/gavinsimpson...
gavinsimpson gratia Q A · Discussions
Explore the GitHub Discussions forum for gavinsimpson gratia in the Q A category.
github.com
February 3, 2026 at 12:57 PM
There’ll be a live Q&A—post questions in advance via the gratia GitHub Discussions (tag livestream), and upvote the ones you want answered.
Post your questions: github.com/gavinsimpson...
Post your questions: github.com/gavinsimpson...
During the livestream, I'll be covering:
• what GAMs are and how they work
• recent mgcv updates (incl. Hierarchical GAMs)
• new features in gratia
• deeper inference with marginaleffects
• what GAMs are and how they work
• recent mgcv updates (incl. Hierarchical GAMs)
• new features in gratia
• deeper inference with marginaleffects
February 3, 2026 at 12:57 PM
During the livestream, I'll be covering:
• what GAMs are and how they work
• recent mgcv updates (incl. Hierarchical GAMs)
• new features in gratia
• deeper inference with marginaleffects
• what GAMs are and how they work
• recent mgcv updates (incl. Hierarchical GAMs)
• new features in gratia
• deeper inference with marginaleffects
🚨 GAMs have moved on—so it’s time for an update.
On March 3, 2026 (17:00–19:00 CET) I’ll be livestreaming an updated introduction to Generalized Additive Models in R
📺 YouTube livestream link: youtube.com/live/A9U8e1K...
#RStats #mgcv #GAMs #gratia #statistics 🧪
On March 3, 2026 (17:00–19:00 CET) I’ll be livestreaming an updated introduction to Generalized Additive Models in R
📺 YouTube livestream link: youtube.com/live/A9U8e1K...
#RStats #mgcv #GAMs #gratia #statistics 🧪
What's new in the world of Generalized Additive Models
YouTube video by Bottom of the Heap
youtube.com
February 3, 2026 at 12:57 PM
🚨 GAMs have moved on—so it’s time for an update.
On March 3, 2026 (17:00–19:00 CET) I’ll be livestreaming an updated introduction to Generalized Additive Models in R
📺 YouTube livestream link: youtube.com/live/A9U8e1K...
#RStats #mgcv #GAMs #gratia #statistics 🧪
On March 3, 2026 (17:00–19:00 CET) I’ll be livestreaming an updated introduction to Generalized Additive Models in R
📺 YouTube livestream link: youtube.com/live/A9U8e1K...
#RStats #mgcv #GAMs #gratia #statistics 🧪
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
All my #rstats ebooks are now in the quarto format, and hosted on Quarto Pub. Their old bookdown links will all be dead by the weekend.
1/3
1/3
January 28, 2026 at 3:34 PM
All my #rstats ebooks are now in the quarto format, and hosted on Quarto Pub. Their old bookdown links will all be dead by the weekend.
1/3
1/3
Isn’t it about time that European countries tax the shit out of the massive US tech firms looting them (they exploit every loophole to pay relatively little tax)?
If he raises tariffs, we raise taxes on their revenue.
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...
If he raises tariffs, we raise taxes on their revenue.
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...
European leaders warn of ‘downward spiral’ after Trump threatens tariffs over Greenland – Europe live
Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland will face tariffs from 1 February
www.theguardian.com
January 17, 2026 at 8:05 PM
Isn’t it about time that European countries tax the shit out of the massive US tech firms looting them (they exploit every loophole to pay relatively little tax)?
If he raises tariffs, we raise taxes on their revenue.
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...
If he raises tariffs, we raise taxes on their revenue.
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
How HSE supports Russia's war: trap.org.ua/en/publications/how-the-russian-higher-school-of-economics-supports-the-war-against-ukraine/
HSE seminar series & speakers (incl. many international ones, from top universities): sites.google.com/view/hse-econ-seminar/hse_seminar
HSE seminar series & speakers (incl. many international ones, from top universities): sites.google.com/view/hse-econ-seminar/hse_seminar
How the Russian Higher School of Economics supports the war against Ukraine
Russia's Higher School of Economics has become a center for propaganda and support for military action against Ukraine. Students of the university are actively raising funds for military equipment for...
trap.org.ua
January 15, 2026 at 3:20 PM
How HSE supports Russia's war: trap.org.ua/en/publications/how-the-russian-higher-school-of-economics-supports-the-war-against-ukraine/
HSE seminar series & speakers (incl. many international ones, from top universities): sites.google.com/view/hse-econ-seminar/hse_seminar
HSE seminar series & speakers (incl. many international ones, from top universities): sites.google.com/view/hse-econ-seminar/hse_seminar
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
While Ukrainians face 30+ hour blackouts, Moscow's Higher School of Economics hosts seminars with top international speakers-then uses the same rooms for drone fundraisers. Academics don't get paid for seminars. So why present at an institution actively funding mass murder of Ukrainians? #Econsky
January 15, 2026 at 3:20 PM
While Ukrainians face 30+ hour blackouts, Moscow's Higher School of Economics hosts seminars with top international speakers-then uses the same rooms for drone fundraisers. Academics don't get paid for seminars. So why present at an institution actively funding mass murder of Ukrainians? #Econsky
I’d start with Dave Miller’s recent paper on the Bayesian Interpretation of GAMs in MEE arxiv.org/abs/1902.01330
The equivalence holds for the case of a Bayesian view of smoothing as that looks like the REML criterion of a mixed effects model
The equivalence holds for the case of a Bayesian view of smoothing as that looks like the REML criterion of a mixed effects model
Bayesian views of generalized additive modelling
Generalized additive models (GAMs) are a commonly used, flexible framework applied to many problems in statistical ecology. GAMs are often considered to be a purely frequentist framework (`generalized...
arxiv.org
January 15, 2026 at 7:52 AM
I’d start with Dave Miller’s recent paper on the Bayesian Interpretation of GAMs in MEE arxiv.org/abs/1902.01330
The equivalence holds for the case of a Bayesian view of smoothing as that looks like the REML criterion of a mixed effects model
The equivalence holds for the case of a Bayesian view of smoothing as that looks like the REML criterion of a mixed effects model
If this is a general “penalties = priors” thing I don’t think that is generally true. There are specific cases where they work out to be equivalent to a particular (possibly improper) prior. This is what underlies mgcv and IIRC also INLA (but I’m less familiar with the latter)
January 15, 2026 at 7:46 AM
If this is a general “penalties = priors” thing I don’t think that is generally true. There are specific cases where they work out to be equivalent to a particular (possibly improper) prior. This is what underlies mgcv and IIRC also INLA (but I’m less familiar with the latter)
I think that would be using an “old style” or “scheffer style” random effect interpretation sensu Hodges. We don’t tend to think our spline is a draw from a multivariate Gaussian as if it were some weird set of random effects but we use this as a computational convenience, AKA “new style” ranefs
January 15, 2026 at 7:40 AM
I think that would be using an “old style” or “scheffer style” random effect interpretation sensu Hodges. We don’t tend to think our spline is a draw from a multivariate Gaussian as if it were some weird set of random effects but we use this as a computational convenience, AKA “new style” ranefs
Isn’t this called maximum a posteriori estimation? What mgcv does is an empirical Bayesian edtimate. The “penalty” is an improper Gaussian prior on the smooth coefs and lambda is inversely proportional to a variance parameter. I’m away from my books & other stuff but I think this is in Wood 2011
January 15, 2026 at 7:35 AM
Isn’t this called maximum a posteriori estimation? What mgcv does is an empirical Bayesian edtimate. The “penalty” is an improper Gaussian prior on the smooth coefs and lambda is inversely proportional to a variance parameter. I’m away from my books & other stuff but I think this is in Wood 2011
Reposted by Gavin Simpson
📈 Registrations now open!
Time Series Analysis & Forecasting in R
🗓 20–24 July| 🌍 Online
A very hands-on course on dynamic GLMs/GAMs for ecological time series using {mvgam} & {brms}. Bayesian models, nonlinear effects, forecasting & live coding in R.
www.physalia-courses.org/courses-work...
Time Series Analysis & Forecasting in R
🗓 20–24 July| 🌍 Online
A very hands-on course on dynamic GLMs/GAMs for ecological time series using {mvgam} & {brms}. Bayesian models, nonlinear effects, forecasting & live coding in R.
www.physalia-courses.org/courses-work...
January 7, 2026 at 9:19 AM
📈 Registrations now open!
Time Series Analysis & Forecasting in R
🗓 20–24 July| 🌍 Online
A very hands-on course on dynamic GLMs/GAMs for ecological time series using {mvgam} & {brms}. Bayesian models, nonlinear effects, forecasting & live coding in R.
www.physalia-courses.org/courses-work...
Time Series Analysis & Forecasting in R
🗓 20–24 July| 🌍 Online
A very hands-on course on dynamic GLMs/GAMs for ecological time series using {mvgam} & {brms}. Bayesian models, nonlinear effects, forecasting & live coding in R.
www.physalia-courses.org/courses-work...