Patrick Julius
@pnrjulius.bsky.social
Writer, tutor, blogger, economist
Bachelor's in cognitive science from the University of Michigan
PhD in economics from the University of California, Irvine
Taught at the University of Edinburgh
Bachelor's in cognitive science from the University of Michigan
PhD in economics from the University of California, Irvine
Taught at the University of Edinburgh
This week's post is about Hume's "is-ought problem". I argue that this "problem" is largely illusory; all arguments need premises, you can always challenge premises, but there's nothing special about "is" and "ought" here.
patrickjuli.us/2025/01/05/w...
patrickjuli.us/2025/01/05/w...
What’s fallacious about naturalism?
Jan 5 JDN 2460681 There is another line of attack against a scientific approach to morality, one which threatens all the more because it comes from fellow scientists. Even though they generally agr…
patrickjuli.us
January 7, 2025 at 11:42 PM
This week's post is about Hume's "is-ought problem". I argue that this "problem" is largely illusory; all arguments need premises, you can always challenge premises, but there's nothing special about "is" and "ought" here.
patrickjuli.us/2025/01/05/w...
patrickjuli.us/2025/01/05/w...
Reposted by Patrick Julius
I don't think people appreciate that the US military is extraordinarily good at destroying a nation's productive capacity but also extraordinarily bad at running a successful occupation. In fact, we've lost the last several wars where we had to do that.
January 7, 2025 at 11:31 PM
I don't think people appreciate that the US military is extraordinarily good at destroying a nation's productive capacity but also extraordinarily bad at running a successful occupation. In fact, we've lost the last several wars where we had to do that.
Reposted by Patrick Julius
Given this news, it would be good to see academics and academic institutions cut ties with meta. It is now abundantly clear they are using laundering academic research to justify decisions made for purely practical and financial reasons.
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
Meta to End Fact-Checking Program in Shift Ahead of Trump Term
The social networking giant will stop using third-party fact-checkers on Facebook, Threads and Instagram and instead rely on users to add notes to posts. It is likely to please President-elect Trump a...
www.nytimes.com
January 7, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Given this news, it would be good to see academics and academic institutions cut ties with meta. It is now abundantly clear they are using laundering academic research to justify decisions made for purely practical and financial reasons.
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
In this week's post, I reflect on land acknowledgments, and the history of violence they are meant to acknowledge:
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/29/o...
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/29/o...
On land acknowledgments
Dec 29 JDN 2460674 Noah Smith and Brad DeLong, both of whom I admire, have recently written about the practice of land acknowledgments. Smith is wholeheartedly against them. DeLong has a more nuanc…
patrickjuli.us
December 30, 2024 at 11:00 PM
In this week's post, I reflect on land acknowledgments, and the history of violence they are meant to acknowledge:
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/29/o...
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/29/o...
In this week's post I continue my takedown of religious morality, showing how mainstream religious institutions have been implicated in some of the worst crimes imaginable and religious ideas have held back moral progress for centuries.
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/16/m...
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/16/m...
Moral progress and moral authority
Dec 8 JDN 2460653 In previous posts I’ve written about why religion is a poor source of morality. But it’s worse than that. Religion actually holds us back morally. It is because of rel…
patrickjuli.us
December 16, 2024 at 7:55 PM
In this week's post I continue my takedown of religious morality, showing how mainstream religious institutions have been implicated in some of the worst crimes imaginable and religious ideas have held back moral progress for centuries.
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/16/m...
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/16/m...
In my latest post I continue my takedown of religious morality, this time with a focus on holy texts: Even if God were real, we couldn't trust the books.
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/09/m...
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/09/m...
More on religion
Dec 8 JDN 2460653 Reward and punishment In previous posts I’ve argued that religion can make people do evil and that religious beliefs simply aren’t true. But there is another reason to…
patrickjuli.us
December 9, 2024 at 6:33 PM
In my latest post I continue my takedown of religious morality, this time with a focus on holy texts: Even if God were real, we couldn't trust the books.
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/09/m...
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/09/m...
Reposted by Patrick Julius
Also, here’s a friendly reminder of how much a billion dollars is. If you made $20/hour and worked 40 hours per week (52 weeks per year):
It would take you 25 years to earn $1 million.
But it would take you 24,039 years to earn $1 billion.
It would take you 25 years to earn $1 million.
But it would take you 24,039 years to earn $1 billion.
I think there's a worthwhile convo to be had about what a suitable 'maximum income' is, past which additional wealth really is pure money and power hoarding and serves no practical needs-meeting purpose. I think the range of defensible answers is large but the top end is *well* south of $1B
December 7, 2024 at 4:23 PM
Also, here’s a friendly reminder of how much a billion dollars is. If you made $20/hour and worked 40 hours per week (52 weeks per year):
It would take you 25 years to earn $1 million.
But it would take you 24,039 years to earn $1 billion.
It would take you 25 years to earn $1 million.
But it would take you 24,039 years to earn $1 billion.
Reposted by Patrick Julius
Back on Twitter, there was an awesome account called “… in mice.”
Every time someone tweeted out a mouse-based study like it was a human-based one (“Cheez-Its cause lung cancer!”) it’d RT w just “in mice” to highlight the extrapolation concerns.
Need that for “… in an artificial survey” too.
Every time someone tweeted out a mouse-based study like it was a human-based one (“Cheez-Its cause lung cancer!”) it’d RT w just “in mice” to highlight the extrapolation concerns.
Need that for “… in an artificial survey” too.
December 7, 2024 at 5:33 PM
Back on Twitter, there was an awesome account called “… in mice.”
Every time someone tweeted out a mouse-based study like it was a human-based one (“Cheez-Its cause lung cancer!”) it’d RT w just “in mice” to highlight the extrapolation concerns.
Need that for “… in an artificial survey” too.
Every time someone tweeted out a mouse-based study like it was a human-based one (“Cheez-Its cause lung cancer!”) it’d RT w just “in mice” to highlight the extrapolation concerns.
Need that for “… in an artificial survey” too.
Reposted by Patrick Julius
the fact that we have "serious" convos about whether billionaires are okay suggests public consciousness that is totally divorced from the 1) actual scale of private wealth accumulation 2) its political implications. helpful data visualization:
eattherichtextformat.github.io/1-pixel-weal...
eattherichtextformat.github.io/1-pixel-weal...
Wealth, shown to scale
Wealth inequality in the United States is out of control. Here we visualize the issue in a unique way.
eattherichtextformat.github.io
December 7, 2024 at 12:54 PM
the fact that we have "serious" convos about whether billionaires are okay suggests public consciousness that is totally divorced from the 1) actual scale of private wealth accumulation 2) its political implications. helpful data visualization:
eattherichtextformat.github.io/1-pixel-weal...
eattherichtextformat.github.io/1-pixel-weal...
Reposted by Patrick Julius
Trump's margin of victory—in a country of 342 million—is down to 2.2 million and 1.47%.
His vote share is <50%.
Republicans for now have only a 1-vote majority in the House.
Things are so bad for Trump in the Senate that he's floating illegally dismissing the entire body.
This is his "mandate."
His vote share is <50%.
Republicans for now have only a 1-vote majority in the House.
Things are so bad for Trump in the Senate that he's floating illegally dismissing the entire body.
This is his "mandate."
December 7, 2024 at 5:38 PM
Trump's margin of victory—in a country of 342 million—is down to 2.2 million and 1.47%.
His vote share is <50%.
Republicans for now have only a 1-vote majority in the House.
Things are so bad for Trump in the Senate that he's floating illegally dismissing the entire body.
This is his "mandate."
His vote share is <50%.
Republicans for now have only a 1-vote majority in the House.
Things are so bad for Trump in the Senate that he's floating illegally dismissing the entire body.
This is his "mandate."
In this week's post I tear down one of the most critical foundations of religious belief: The afterlife. It's time to stop being politely "agnostic" about this; the nonexistence of an afterlife is a scientific fact.
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/01/t...
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/01/t...
The afterlife
Dec 1 JDN 2460646 Super-human beings aren’t that strange a thing to posit, but they are the sort of thing we’d expect to see clear evidence of if they existed. Without them, prayer is a…
patrickjuli.us
December 2, 2024 at 8:52 PM
In this week's post I tear down one of the most critical foundations of religious belief: The afterlife. It's time to stop being politely "agnostic" about this; the nonexistence of an afterlife is a scientific fact.
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/01/t...
patrickjuli.us/2024/12/01/t...
In this week's blog post I continue my series on religion, with a simple but highly controversial claim: Religion is false.
patrickjuli.us/2024/11/24/r...
patrickjuli.us/2024/11/24/r...
Religion is False.
Nov 24 JDN 2460639 In my previous post I wrote about some of the ways that religion can make people do terrible things. However, to be clear, as evil as actions like wiping out cities, torturing no…
patrickjuli.us
November 25, 2024 at 7:19 PM
In this week's blog post I continue my series on religion, with a simple but highly controversial claim: Religion is false.
patrickjuli.us/2024/11/24/r...
patrickjuli.us/2024/11/24/r...
Reposted by Patrick Julius
they’ve managed a neat trick where, by being so obviously impossible to reach or change in any way, they’ve escaped all need to do so
the people who write these thinkpieces blaming progressives for not reaching out know that everyone would laugh at them for suggesting the same of MAGA
the people who write these thinkpieces blaming progressives for not reaching out know that everyone would laugh at them for suggesting the same of MAGA
It’s just frustrating that the right wing never has to do shit, even when they lose. Never have to reach out, to welcome, to understand, to moderate their positions. They get to be who they are & never apologize for it and people will blame progressives for not putting up with that shit
Twitter isn't real you stupid motherfucker. The algo is rigged and the trolls are bots.
November 24, 2024 at 3:53 PM
they’ve managed a neat trick where, by being so obviously impossible to reach or change in any way, they’ve escaped all need to do so
the people who write these thinkpieces blaming progressives for not reaching out know that everyone would laugh at them for suggesting the same of MAGA
the people who write these thinkpieces blaming progressives for not reaching out know that everyone would laugh at them for suggesting the same of MAGA
Reposted by Patrick Julius
I wrote about some particularly egregious cases of high-profile liberal and – nominally, at least – anti-MAGA elites opting to fall in line: Leading Democratic politicians, the ostensibly liberal legal establishment, news media stars… Not a lot of appetite for resistance to be found among them.
Sunday reading: Elite Acquiescence and Treacherous “Normalcy”
I wrote about why ostensibly anti-MAGA elites are normalizing and legitimizing the incoming Trump regime and how to explain this pervasive tendency to accommodate authoritarian power.
This week’s piece:
I wrote about why ostensibly anti-MAGA elites are normalizing and legitimizing the incoming Trump regime and how to explain this pervasive tendency to accommodate authoritarian power.
This week’s piece:
Elite Acquiescence and Treacherous “Normalcy” All Around Us
What are the reasons behind the pervasive tendency among ostensibly anti-MAGA elites to accommodate authoritarian power and preemptively signal compliance with Trumpism?
thomaszimmer.substack.com
November 24, 2024 at 4:02 PM
I wrote about some particularly egregious cases of high-profile liberal and – nominally, at least – anti-MAGA elites opting to fall in line: Leading Democratic politicians, the ostensibly liberal legal establishment, news media stars… Not a lot of appetite for resistance to be found among them.
Reposted by Patrick Julius
“In theory, the I.R.S. could audit the Trump transition…”
It’s pathetic that we’re at the point where we acknowledge we could uphold the law “in theory” and we all know it’s just a joke.
It’s pathetic that we’re at the point where we acknowledge we could uphold the law “in theory” and we all know it’s just a joke.
November 24, 2024 at 4:04 PM
“In theory, the I.R.S. could audit the Trump transition…”
It’s pathetic that we’re at the point where we acknowledge we could uphold the law “in theory” and we all know it’s just a joke.
It’s pathetic that we’re at the point where we acknowledge we could uphold the law “in theory” and we all know it’s just a joke.
Reposted by Patrick Julius
ive been thinking how the right is never asked to extend the olive branch to the left -- if the left wins elections, they should be inclusive and reach out. If the left loses elections, they should be inclusive and reach out. at no point is it ever possible that the right will reach out to the left.
I wrote something that I think is very important for understanding the political dynamic we're in, and for knowing what to do next. If you agree, please share this widely.
The only way to win is not to play | Andrew Perfors
You all realise we’re in an abusive relationship with MAGA, right?
perfors.net
November 24, 2024 at 10:55 AM
ive been thinking how the right is never asked to extend the olive branch to the left -- if the left wins elections, they should be inclusive and reach out. If the left loses elections, they should be inclusive and reach out. at no point is it ever possible that the right will reach out to the left.
Reposted by Patrick Julius
I think that the public has conflated questioning authority with discounting the legitimacy of expertise, and that’s a dangerous mix-up.
November 24, 2024 at 4:07 PM
I think that the public has conflated questioning authority with discounting the legitimacy of expertise, and that’s a dangerous mix-up.
Reposted by Patrick Julius
What a strange headline for a story that notes:
1. 2,169 ballots were rejected for no ID.
2. "The voter ID law disproportionately hindered Democrats."
3. "The evidence overwhelmingly shows" that fraud "is essentially nonexistent."
4. The state Supreme Court race was decided by only 625 votes.
1. 2,169 ballots were rejected for no ID.
2. "The voter ID law disproportionately hindered Democrats."
3. "The evidence overwhelmingly shows" that fraud "is essentially nonexistent."
4. The state Supreme Court race was decided by only 625 votes.
November 24, 2024 at 11:17 AM
What a strange headline for a story that notes:
1. 2,169 ballots were rejected for no ID.
2. "The voter ID law disproportionately hindered Democrats."
3. "The evidence overwhelmingly shows" that fraud "is essentially nonexistent."
4. The state Supreme Court race was decided by only 625 votes.
1. 2,169 ballots were rejected for no ID.
2. "The voter ID law disproportionately hindered Democrats."
3. "The evidence overwhelmingly shows" that fraud "is essentially nonexistent."
4. The state Supreme Court race was decided by only 625 votes.
Reposted by Patrick Julius
Reposted by Patrick Julius
“In 2022, YouGov asked “What percentage of Americans do you think are ___?”
The results were hilarious.
Trans: 21%
Muslim: 27%
Jewish: 30%
Black: 41%
Live in NYC: 30%
Gay or lesbian: 30%
The errors are off by orders of magnitude. The trans estimation by 2,000%.”
www.thebulwark.com/p/americans-...
The results were hilarious.
Trans: 21%
Muslim: 27%
Jewish: 30%
Black: 41%
Live in NYC: 30%
Gay or lesbian: 30%
The errors are off by orders of magnitude. The trans estimation by 2,000%.”
www.thebulwark.com/p/americans-...
Americans Have One Very Strange Cognitive Bias
Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love The People.
www.thebulwark.com
November 23, 2024 at 4:31 AM
“In 2022, YouGov asked “What percentage of Americans do you think are ___?”
The results were hilarious.
Trans: 21%
Muslim: 27%
Jewish: 30%
Black: 41%
Live in NYC: 30%
Gay or lesbian: 30%
The errors are off by orders of magnitude. The trans estimation by 2,000%.”
www.thebulwark.com/p/americans-...
The results were hilarious.
Trans: 21%
Muslim: 27%
Jewish: 30%
Black: 41%
Live in NYC: 30%
Gay or lesbian: 30%
The errors are off by orders of magnitude. The trans estimation by 2,000%.”
www.thebulwark.com/p/americans-...
Reposted by Patrick Julius
Maybe something for #EconSky
I’m a German microeconomist and got my PhD from a uni in Franconia. I have to admit, I’m feeling a bit ashamed that I’d never heard of the "Osing Land Lottery" before. This NPR podcast is absolutely brilliant—such a great way to learn about efficiency and fairness.
www.npr.org/2024/11/15/1...
The great German land lottery : Planet Money
Every ten years, a group of German farmers gather in the communal farm fields of the Osing for the Osingverlosung, a ritual dating back centuries. Osing refers to the area. And verlosung means "lottery," as in a land lottery. All of the land in this communal land is randomly reassigned to farmers who commit to farming it for the next decade.Hundreds of years ago, a community in Germany came up with their own, unique solution for how to best allocate scarce resources. For this community, the lottery is a way to try and make the system of land allotment more fair and avoid conflict.Today on the show, we go to the lottery and follow along as every farmer has a shot at getting the perfect piece of land — or the absolute worst piece of land! And we see what we can learn from this living, medieval tradition that tries to balance fairness and efficiency.This episode was hosted by Erika Beras and Emma Peaslee. It was produced by Emma Peaslee. It was edited by Jess Jiang. Reporting help from Sofia Shchukina. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez. It was engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.
www.npr.org
November 24, 2024 at 4:14 PM
Maybe something for #EconSky
Reposted by Patrick Julius
I think a lot of the folks remaining on X think that you need MAGA faithful in the mix or else it's an echo chamber. I have no problem being in a place where people hate my politics but agree that Donald Trump is an existential threat to American democracy.
I follow people like @sykescharlie.bsky.social @billkristol.bsky.social @davidfrum.bsky.social @walshfreedom.bsky.social @adamkinzinger.bsky.social @radiofreetom.bsky.social on Bluesky but sure, it’s a left-wing echo chamber.
elmo from sesame street looks at the camera with his mouth open
ALT: elmo from sesame street looks at the camera with his mouth open
media.tenor.com
November 24, 2024 at 4:15 PM
I think a lot of the folks remaining on X think that you need MAGA faithful in the mix or else it's an echo chamber. I have no problem being in a place where people hate my politics but agree that Donald Trump is an existential threat to American democracy.
This dialogue is full of great stuff, but this quote in particular really stuck with me:
"In other words, just because you disagree with every tenet of these people’s faith doesn’t mean that they don’t sincerely think of themselves as servants of the Lord."
"In other words, just because you disagree with every tenet of these people’s faith doesn’t mean that they don’t sincerely think of themselves as servants of the Lord."
"I want us to think about what that 'counterzeal' looks like in practice." A difficult + amazing conversation ⭐️
also: I am a truthout monthly donor at $11/mo because independent journalism has never been as important as it is now! can you match me? or make a one-time donation at truthout.org?
also: I am a truthout monthly donor at $11/mo because independent journalism has never been as important as it is now! can you match me? or make a one-time donation at truthout.org?
This week, @swordsjew.bsky.social and I discuss the emotional impacts of the presidential election, the expansive agenda of the Christian right, and how everyday people can resist what Lavin calls “our nation’s precipitous slide into autocracy.”
November 23, 2024 at 12:33 AM
This dialogue is full of great stuff, but this quote in particular really stuck with me:
"In other words, just because you disagree with every tenet of these people’s faith doesn’t mean that they don’t sincerely think of themselves as servants of the Lord."
"In other words, just because you disagree with every tenet of these people’s faith doesn’t mean that they don’t sincerely think of themselves as servants of the Lord."
Reposted by Patrick Julius
"I want us to think about what that 'counterzeal' looks like in practice." A difficult + amazing conversation ⭐️
also: I am a truthout monthly donor at $11/mo because independent journalism has never been as important as it is now! can you match me? or make a one-time donation at truthout.org?
also: I am a truthout monthly donor at $11/mo because independent journalism has never been as important as it is now! can you match me? or make a one-time donation at truthout.org?
This week, @swordsjew.bsky.social and I discuss the emotional impacts of the presidential election, the expansive agenda of the Christian right, and how everyday people can resist what Lavin calls “our nation’s precipitous slide into autocracy.”
We Must Contest the Christian Right’s Agenda in Every Venue of Our Lives
“It is a self-replicating authoritarian system that has persisted over the course of generations,” says Talia Lavin.
truthout.org
November 22, 2024 at 9:50 PM
"I want us to think about what that 'counterzeal' looks like in practice." A difficult + amazing conversation ⭐️
also: I am a truthout monthly donor at $11/mo because independent journalism has never been as important as it is now! can you match me? or make a one-time donation at truthout.org?
also: I am a truthout monthly donor at $11/mo because independent journalism has never been as important as it is now! can you match me? or make a one-time donation at truthout.org?
Reposted by Patrick Julius
"we have a cache of secret documents about pedophiles in government that we will only release if you force us, it's not like we wanna make this public" is certainly a threat about someone's credibility, but i don't think they understand whose
Some House Freedom Caucus members are screaming payback if Dems successfully force a vote on the House floor to release the Gaetz ethics report, saying it could lead to them getting other reports involving current or former Dem members, per Politico
November 22, 2024 at 12:16 PM
"we have a cache of secret documents about pedophiles in government that we will only release if you force us, it's not like we wanna make this public" is certainly a threat about someone's credibility, but i don't think they understand whose