John Pfaff
@johnpfaff.bsky.social
Professor at Fordham Law. Prisons and criminal justice quant. I'm not contrarian, the data are. Author of Locked In. New stuff at johnfpfaff.com.
Reposted by John Pfaff
“Ain’t gonna play the Kennedy Center” is going to be the new “Ain’t gonna play Sun City.”
November 11, 2025 at 2:27 AM
“Ain’t gonna play the Kennedy Center” is going to be the new “Ain’t gonna play Sun City.”
Oh, this sort of spam has made it to Bsky. Fun.
Guess we have the juice.
Guess we have the juice.
November 11, 2025 at 2:16 AM
Oh, this sort of spam has made it to Bsky. Fun.
Guess we have the juice.
Guess we have the juice.
White Afrikaners looking at Trump and saying “don’t associate us with this racist!”
That’s quite a legacy.
That’s quite a legacy.
Prominent Afrikaners are pushing back after President Trump announced no U.S. officials will attend the G20 in Johannesburg, rejecting his claims of "white persecution" in South Africa as false and politically driven.
Prominent Afrikaners refuse to be 'pawns,' and hit back at Trump's claims about South Africa
Prominent Afrikaners are pushing back after President Trump announced no U.S. officials will attend the G20 in Johannesburg, rejecting his claims of "white persecution" in South Africa as false and politically driven.
n.pr
November 11, 2025 at 2:13 AM
White Afrikaners looking at Trump and saying “don’t associate us with this racist!”
That’s quite a legacy.
That’s quite a legacy.
This is perhaps one my hottest take:s
Any election within, say, 0.1% should be declared a statistical tie and resolved via coin flip.
No recount, no litigation. None of these processes is perfect. Accept the unknowability, admit the indeterminacy, and flip a coin.
Any election within, say, 0.1% should be declared a statistical tie and resolved via coin flip.
No recount, no litigation. None of these processes is perfect. Accept the unknowability, admit the indeterminacy, and flip a coin.
Unreal. As the vote count rolled in, progressive candidate Katie Wilson has overtaken Bruce Harrell by 91 votes for Seattle’s mayor. She is 0.04% ahead after having been down by more than 7 points on election night.
Katie Wilson pulls ahead of Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell – by 91 votes
www.kuow.org
November 11, 2025 at 2:10 AM
This is perhaps one my hottest take:s
Any election within, say, 0.1% should be declared a statistical tie and resolved via coin flip.
No recount, no litigation. None of these processes is perfect. Accept the unknowability, admit the indeterminacy, and flip a coin.
Any election within, say, 0.1% should be declared a statistical tie and resolved via coin flip.
No recount, no litigation. None of these processes is perfect. Accept the unknowability, admit the indeterminacy, and flip a coin.
*Federal criminal consequences.*
They can still face state charges.
And if they trip up again, you can be sure Fed judges can aggravate accordingly (after all, acquitted conduct can jack up time served).
They can face social ostracism, we can work to make it harder to get jobs, etc.
They can still face state charges.
And if they trip up again, you can be sure Fed judges can aggravate accordingly (after all, acquitted conduct can jack up time served).
They can face social ostracism, we can work to make it harder to get jobs, etc.
"If you’re a Republican official convicted of corruption, your odds of receiving clemency from Trump are roughly 100%...
"The latest move seems intended to deliver a political message: Those who assist Trump with his schemes need not worry about legal consequences..."
www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddo...
"The latest move seems intended to deliver a political message: Those who assist Trump with his schemes need not worry about legal consequences..."
www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddo...
November 10, 2025 at 10:26 PM
*Federal criminal consequences.*
They can still face state charges.
And if they trip up again, you can be sure Fed judges can aggravate accordingly (after all, acquitted conduct can jack up time served).
They can face social ostracism, we can work to make it harder to get jobs, etc.
They can still face state charges.
And if they trip up again, you can be sure Fed judges can aggravate accordingly (after all, acquitted conduct can jack up time served).
They can face social ostracism, we can work to make it harder to get jobs, etc.
This is wild, just how LITTLE the NYPD shoots.
There’s a lot to criticize abt the NYPD, but this seems laudable.
It also seems aligned w another fact I don’t fully understand, that while ~80% of all homicides in the US are caused by a gun, in NYC it’s basically ~50%.
There’s a lot to criticize abt the NYPD, but this seems laudable.
It also seems aligned w another fact I don’t fully understand, that while ~80% of all homicides in the US are caused by a gun, in NYC it’s basically ~50%.
November 10, 2025 at 9:40 PM
This is wild, just how LITTLE the NYPD shoots.
There’s a lot to criticize abt the NYPD, but this seems laudable.
It also seems aligned w another fact I don’t fully understand, that while ~80% of all homicides in the US are caused by a gun, in NYC it’s basically ~50%.
There’s a lot to criticize abt the NYPD, but this seems laudable.
It also seems aligned w another fact I don’t fully understand, that while ~80% of all homicides in the US are caused by a gun, in NYC it’s basically ~50%.
This thread, which is right on the facts, seems to be getting the exact sort of replies one would have feared.
But I feel like the ratio of “MY third party will win the White House” Bluesky dreamposting to “I’m open to a real primary” takes by grass-touching normies favors reality.
But I feel like the ratio of “MY third party will win the White House” Bluesky dreamposting to “I’m open to a real primary” takes by grass-touching normies favors reality.
“Rather than taking over the Democratic Party the same way the right took over the Republican Party, we should take the easier route and just start up a new party ourselves!”
I’m about to fill my pockets with stones and walk into the sea.
I’m about to fill my pockets with stones and walk into the sea.
November 10, 2025 at 8:38 PM
This thread, which is right on the facts, seems to be getting the exact sort of replies one would have feared.
But I feel like the ratio of “MY third party will win the White House” Bluesky dreamposting to “I’m open to a real primary” takes by grass-touching normies favors reality.
But I feel like the ratio of “MY third party will win the White House” Bluesky dreamposting to “I’m open to a real primary” takes by grass-touching normies favors reality.
This is a good example of why it is important to remember that politics is about power, not aesthetics.
Your party ID, who you vote for, etc.? They are about the compromises necessary to enact the policies you want and thwart the ones you don’t.
They aren’t style choices, esp in our system!
Your party ID, who you vote for, etc.? They are about the compromises necessary to enact the policies you want and thwart the ones you don’t.
They aren’t style choices, esp in our system!
Hey, a lot of people are talking about changing affiliation from Democratic to Independent.
Let me tell you why you shouldn’t do that in Colorado.
One of the main ways to get a primary challenge candidate on a ballot is to caucus for your party. You need to be registered as a Dem to caucus.
Let me tell you why you shouldn’t do that in Colorado.
One of the main ways to get a primary challenge candidate on a ballot is to caucus for your party. You need to be registered as a Dem to caucus.
November 10, 2025 at 8:28 PM
This is a good example of why it is important to remember that politics is about power, not aesthetics.
Your party ID, who you vote for, etc.? They are about the compromises necessary to enact the policies you want and thwart the ones you don’t.
They aren’t style choices, esp in our system!
Your party ID, who you vote for, etc.? They are about the compromises necessary to enact the policies you want and thwart the ones you don’t.
They aren’t style choices, esp in our system!
Some of these Dems need to get primaried so hard they will need to invent a color in between red, blue, and yellow to describe it.
an optical illusion of a rainbow colored ball on a dark blue background
Alt: an optical illusion of a rainbow colored ball on a dark blue background
media.tenor.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:13 AM
Some of these Dems need to get primaried so hard they will need to invent a color in between red, blue, and yellow to describe it.
Reposted by John Pfaff
This is really good to see: Miki Sherrill just put out a statement sharply criticizing the Senate Dems' pending cave in the government shutdown, ripping it as "malpractice" and a betrayal of the people who are "counting on us to fight for them." Sherrill knows what drove her victory. Wake up, Dems.
November 10, 2025 at 1:38 AM
This is really good to see: Miki Sherrill just put out a statement sharply criticizing the Senate Dems' pending cave in the government shutdown, ripping it as "malpractice" and a betrayal of the people who are "counting on us to fight for them." Sherrill knows what drove her victory. Wake up, Dems.
Reposted by John Pfaff
This is actually a huge get
(and which also might sink the deal in House anyway)
(and which also might sink the deal in House anyway)
The RIFs language is actually great. Not only does it rehire the people RIFed during the shutdown, it makes it an unequivocal Antideficiency Act violation to do ANY MORE RIFs through the duration of the CR (Jan 30)
Completely stops Trump/Vought Phase 2 for now
Would love to see this standardized
Completely stops Trump/Vought Phase 2 for now
Would love to see this standardized
November 10, 2025 at 12:30 AM
This is actually a huge get
(and which also might sink the deal in House anyway)
(and which also might sink the deal in House anyway)
Upside of the cave is that Johnson loses his excuse to block Grijalva’s swearing in. Which is vote 218.
I don’t want the cave. But whatever is lurking in those Epstein Files gets closer to the light of day.
Unless Johnson can’t pass the cave-in bill, given it seems House Dems seem unified here.
I don’t want the cave. But whatever is lurking in those Epstein Files gets closer to the light of day.
Unless Johnson can’t pass the cave-in bill, given it seems House Dems seem unified here.
November 10, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Upside of the cave is that Johnson loses his excuse to block Grijalva’s swearing in. Which is vote 218.
I don’t want the cave. But whatever is lurking in those Epstein Files gets closer to the light of day.
Unless Johnson can’t pass the cave-in bill, given it seems House Dems seem unified here.
I don’t want the cave. But whatever is lurking in those Epstein Files gets closer to the light of day.
Unless Johnson can’t pass the cave-in bill, given it seems House Dems seem unified here.
Reposted by John Pfaff
Democrats have to stop bailing out Republicans from facing the consequences of their own policies. And yeah, that means they have to stop sparing voters from experiencing what GOP government truly means.
Every time Dems step in, it only emboldens the GOP & they make it even worse the next time.
Every time Dems step in, it only emboldens the GOP & they make it even worse the next time.
So Democrats get:
1. A CR that will prevent the GOP from facing the wrath of Americans for a shutdown over the holidays
2. A coupon for one (1) meaningless ACA vote that will fail
3. An end to the illegal RIF/SNAP moves that are already before the courts
Those all seem like wins for the GOP.
1. A CR that will prevent the GOP from facing the wrath of Americans for a shutdown over the holidays
2. A coupon for one (1) meaningless ACA vote that will fail
3. An end to the illegal RIF/SNAP moves that are already before the courts
Those all seem like wins for the GOP.
November 10, 2025 at 12:28 AM
Democrats have to stop bailing out Republicans from facing the consequences of their own policies. And yeah, that means they have to stop sparing voters from experiencing what GOP government truly means.
Every time Dems step in, it only emboldens the GOP & they make it even worse the next time.
Every time Dems step in, it only emboldens the GOP & they make it even worse the next time.
Reposted by John Pfaff
Once again, merits of the deal aside, I really do think Senate mods specifically (since House mods do not seem to have the same operating delusions) really do not understand how pissed the country--& their voter base--is broadly rn. Many of them are retiring but the ones that arent should watch out.
Am out w a non-online more-moderate normie, and when I mentioned that Schumer may be caving his reply was almost unprintable.
Even that random Long Island couple that lives in Chuck’s head think he should hold the damn line.
What is wrong with these people?
Even that random Long Island couple that lives in Chuck’s head think he should hold the damn line.
What is wrong with these people?
November 10, 2025 at 12:23 AM
Once again, merits of the deal aside, I really do think Senate mods specifically (since House mods do not seem to have the same operating delusions) really do not understand how pissed the country--& their voter base--is broadly rn. Many of them are retiring but the ones that arent should watch out.
Am out w a non-online more-moderate normie, and when I mentioned that Schumer may be caving his reply was almost unprintable.
Even that random Long Island couple that lives in Chuck’s head think he should hold the damn line.
What is wrong with these people?
Even that random Long Island couple that lives in Chuck’s head think he should hold the damn line.
What is wrong with these people?
November 10, 2025 at 12:21 AM
Am out w a non-online more-moderate normie, and when I mentioned that Schumer may be caving his reply was almost unprintable.
Even that random Long Island couple that lives in Chuck’s head think he should hold the damn line.
What is wrong with these people?
Even that random Long Island couple that lives in Chuck’s head think he should hold the damn line.
What is wrong with these people?
I think this is a question that hits the Bluesky User sweet-spot:
Anyone have any recs for good but legit-challenging pen-and-paper crossword puzzle books?
Like NYT Saturday+ level throughout (but not a book of actual NYT Saturdays, bc I’ve done almost all of those).
Thanks!
Anyone have any recs for good but legit-challenging pen-and-paper crossword puzzle books?
Like NYT Saturday+ level throughout (but not a book of actual NYT Saturdays, bc I’ve done almost all of those).
Thanks!
November 9, 2025 at 11:54 PM
I think this is a question that hits the Bluesky User sweet-spot:
Anyone have any recs for good but legit-challenging pen-and-paper crossword puzzle books?
Like NYT Saturday+ level throughout (but not a book of actual NYT Saturdays, bc I’ve done almost all of those).
Thanks!
Anyone have any recs for good but legit-challenging pen-and-paper crossword puzzle books?
Like NYT Saturday+ level throughout (but not a book of actual NYT Saturdays, bc I’ve done almost all of those).
Thanks!
God DAMN, Joyce Carol Oates with the body slam from the top rope.
(Elon, being Elon, promptly Streisanded this in a way that also confirmed it, a nice double play on himself.)
(Elon, being Elon, promptly Streisanded this in a way that also confirmed it, a nice double play on himself.)
Elon's a rich boy and he's gone too far.
(the context is John's daughter posted this about Elon and it hurt his feelings)
(the context is John's daughter posted this about Elon and it hurt his feelings)
November 9, 2025 at 10:13 PM
God DAMN, Joyce Carol Oates with the body slam from the top rope.
(Elon, being Elon, promptly Streisanded this in a way that also confirmed it, a nice double play on himself.)
(Elon, being Elon, promptly Streisanded this in a way that also confirmed it, a nice double play on himself.)
Hard-hitting journalism here, asking the partisan people hired to serve a man who demands absolute loyalty and is obsessed with how the media covers him and is known to fire ppl at a whim how that man is doing.
Great stuff this “access journalism” gets us.
Great stuff this “access journalism” gets us.
Someday maybe the press will note the difference between "taking" questions and "answering" them.
November 9, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Hard-hitting journalism here, asking the partisan people hired to serve a man who demands absolute loyalty and is obsessed with how the media covers him and is known to fire ppl at a whim how that man is doing.
Great stuff this “access journalism” gets us.
Great stuff this “access journalism” gets us.
I’ll even avoid getting mad at Kevin for cheering on the Chiefs.
Just this year. I can stretch my grace only so far.
Just this year. I can stretch my grace only so far.
I saw someone on my timeline shaming someone else for posting about college football in a time like this.
Folks, if we're going to survive a time like this, we're going to need to avoid burning out from an attitude of 24/7 vigilance and constant outrage.
Let people find joy where they can, please.
Folks, if we're going to survive a time like this, we're going to need to avoid burning out from an attitude of 24/7 vigilance and constant outrage.
Let people find joy where they can, please.
November 9, 2025 at 12:58 AM
I’ll even avoid getting mad at Kevin for cheering on the Chiefs.
Just this year. I can stretch my grace only so far.
Just this year. I can stretch my grace only so far.
Went to an art show in Brooklyn tonight, and came across a piece that definitely captures the spirit of the moment.
Link to the not-on-Bluesky artist here: tr.ee/0PMUiFI1bO
Link to the not-on-Bluesky artist here: tr.ee/0PMUiFI1bO
November 9, 2025 at 12:57 AM
Went to an art show in Brooklyn tonight, and came across a piece that definitely captures the spirit of the moment.
Link to the not-on-Bluesky artist here: tr.ee/0PMUiFI1bO
Link to the not-on-Bluesky artist here: tr.ee/0PMUiFI1bO
Reposted by John Pfaff
My latest, in @msnbc.com, on how ICE, CBP, and Bovino may be overplaying their hand in Chicago.
Also: this will only make hiring go ICE harder.
And: I hope ppl appreciate that the lying Judge Ellis calls out is NOT an aberration, but a very consistent problem w police claims.
Also: this will only make hiring go ICE harder.
And: I hope ppl appreciate that the lying Judge Ellis calls out is NOT an aberration, but a very consistent problem w police claims.
Opinion | ICE and CBP's aggressive tactics may have finally gone too far
A federal judge dealt federal agents a setback – and shed light on a much more persistent, deeper problem with policing.
www.msnbc.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:38 PM
My latest, in @msnbc.com, on how ICE, CBP, and Bovino may be overplaying their hand in Chicago.
Also: this will only make hiring go ICE harder.
And: I hope ppl appreciate that the lying Judge Ellis calls out is NOT an aberration, but a very consistent problem w police claims.
Also: this will only make hiring go ICE harder.
And: I hope ppl appreciate that the lying Judge Ellis calls out is NOT an aberration, but a very consistent problem w police claims.
These threats are never credible.
One recent study even suggested that when rich ppl do leave high-tax places they move to … other high-tax places.
Bc most ppl, even the rich, like functioning government services.
One recent study even suggested that when rich ppl do leave high-tax places they move to … other high-tax places.
Bc most ppl, even the rich, like functioning government services.
November 8, 2025 at 5:09 PM
These threats are never credible.
One recent study even suggested that when rich ppl do leave high-tax places they move to … other high-tax places.
Bc most ppl, even the rich, like functioning government services.
One recent study even suggested that when rich ppl do leave high-tax places they move to … other high-tax places.
Bc most ppl, even the rich, like functioning government services.
This isn’t a small note.
I don’t hate Biden with the intensity so many on here do (and not looking to relitigate that here).
But he was always really conservative on policing, and he hadn’t really changed, and lots of changes he could have at least started never happened, and that’s really bad.
I don’t hate Biden with the intensity so many on here do (and not looking to relitigate that here).
But he was always really conservative on policing, and he hadn’t really changed, and lots of changes he could have at least started never happened, and that’s really bad.
This is just a small side note, but one of the things that astonished me most about the Biden transition was there seemed to be no plan whatsoever to root Trumpism out of the fed bureacracy. Firmly believe we'd be in a much better place had they taken that on....
November 8, 2025 at 4:30 PM
This isn’t a small note.
I don’t hate Biden with the intensity so many on here do (and not looking to relitigate that here).
But he was always really conservative on policing, and he hadn’t really changed, and lots of changes he could have at least started never happened, and that’s really bad.
I don’t hate Biden with the intensity so many on here do (and not looking to relitigate that here).
But he was always really conservative on policing, and he hadn’t really changed, and lots of changes he could have at least started never happened, and that’s really bad.
Reposted by John Pfaff
Also, DHS is nothing but a 20-yr old org chart.
It’s not a “thing” that has to exist: it was just a post-9/11 reorg of agencies that had been elsewhere, brought under one over-militarized leadership.
We could abolish DHS tomorrow and relocate all its pieces to less military agencies.
It’s not a “thing” that has to exist: it was just a post-9/11 reorg of agencies that had been elsewhere, brought under one over-militarized leadership.
We could abolish DHS tomorrow and relocate all its pieces to less military agencies.
November 8, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Also, DHS is nothing but a 20-yr old org chart.
It’s not a “thing” that has to exist: it was just a post-9/11 reorg of agencies that had been elsewhere, brought under one over-militarized leadership.
We could abolish DHS tomorrow and relocate all its pieces to less military agencies.
It’s not a “thing” that has to exist: it was just a post-9/11 reorg of agencies that had been elsewhere, brought under one over-militarized leadership.
We could abolish DHS tomorrow and relocate all its pieces to less military agencies.