Marcus How
@marcus-how.bsky.social
Head of Analysis at VE Insight (formerly ViennEast). Interested in Austria & CEE. Austro-Essexian hybrid. Opinions expressed are my own.
Pinned
Marcus How
@marcus-how.bsky.social
· Feb 27
*🇦🇹 MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA.. 🇦🇹* And it’s (sort of) final! The People’s Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and NEOS have formed a centrist coalition government, ending a rollercoaster of three rounds of negotiations that lasted 151 days – the longest period in Austria’s post-war history. 1/
Reposted by Marcus How
💥🇭🇺 For Hungary watchers: a detailed inside look at Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party's recent internal crisis — how they underestimated opposition leader Péter Magyar and how all the traps they set for him backfired. Orbán's spring offensive against Magyar even caused tensions within the government.
”The situation is tense” – How Orbán has tried overcome Fidesz’s internal crisis - Direkt36
Fidesz underestimated opposition leader Péter Magyar so much that they realized too late that he posed a real threat to them. Direkt36 reveals how Viktor Orbán launched his spring offensive against Ma...
www.direkt36.hu
November 1, 2025 at 4:17 PM
💥🇭🇺 For Hungary watchers: a detailed inside look at Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party's recent internal crisis — how they underestimated opposition leader Péter Magyar and how all the traps they set for him backfired. Orbán's spring offensive against Magyar even caused tensions within the government.
Reposted by Marcus How
After a democracy turns illiberal, can it return to democracy again? Here are the reasons why democracy after illiberalism is hard to maintain.
Democracy After Illiberalism: A Warning from Poland | Journal of Democracy
Restoring liberalism after illiberalism is no easy task: Leaders face hard choices between acting quickly and effectively while maintaining a commitment to democratic procedure. Worse…
www.journalofdemocracy.org
September 8, 2025 at 2:54 PM
After a democracy turns illiberal, can it return to democracy again? Here are the reasons why democracy after illiberalism is hard to maintain.
Reposted by Marcus How
Without economic strength, Europe is a geopolitical dwarf. So it might a good idea to listen to Robert Fico, without embracing his ideas on climate and energy policy, I argue today in "Morning Post Europe".
Sign up, if you haven't yet⬇️ europemorningpost.substack.com?utm_campaign...
Sign up, if you haven't yet⬇️ europemorningpost.substack.com?utm_campaign...
Where Robert Fico almost has a point: it’s still the economy, and we are stupid
Good morning!
open.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Without economic strength, Europe is a geopolitical dwarf. So it might a good idea to listen to Robert Fico, without embracing his ideas on climate and energy policy, I argue today in "Morning Post Europe".
Sign up, if you haven't yet⬇️ europemorningpost.substack.com?utm_campaign...
Sign up, if you haven't yet⬇️ europemorningpost.substack.com?utm_campaign...
Reposted by Marcus How
Here is something on Czechia's elections and the implications for the EU from me:
#Czechia’s elections mark a populist shift, but Babiš now faces a hard path to form a government. The further he’s pulled to the right, the greater the risk of EU fragmentation.
Quick @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social reaction from @zecsaky.bsky.social
Read here:
Quick @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social reaction from @zecsaky.bsky.social
Read here:
CER quick reaction: The Czech elections
Czechia’s elections mark a populist shift, but Babiš faces a hard path to form a government. The further he’s pulled to the right, the greater the risk of EU fragmentation.
buff.ly
October 6, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Here is something on Czechia's elections and the implications for the EU from me:
Reposted by Marcus How
Opposition to the move from capitals that don’t want to reward the oligarch or endorse Russian court rulings could stymie efforts to pass the EU’s next package of sanctions against Moscow
Scoop with @lauramdubois.ft.com & @mjruehl.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4o7M3i9
Scoop with @lauramdubois.ft.com & @mjruehl.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4o7M3i9
EU plans to hand Deripaska-linked assets to Raiffeisen
[FREE TO READ] Some European officials worry lifting sanctions would bolster Russian retaliation against western companies
on.ft.com
October 3, 2025 at 5:40 AM
Opposition to the move from capitals that don’t want to reward the oligarch or endorse Russian court rulings could stymie efforts to pass the EU’s next package of sanctions against Moscow
Scoop with @lauramdubois.ft.com & @mjruehl.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4o7M3i9
Scoop with @lauramdubois.ft.com & @mjruehl.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4o7M3i9
If Orban takes the nuclear option as regards to dealing with Peter Magyar, this is the most likely scenario. Using past precedent in other member states (Romania, in this instance) as political cover and decrying objections from Brussels as double standards.
Looking ahead to 2026, Orbán may find inspiration not in Moscow but in Bucharest. In 2024, Romania annulled its presidential vote, citing “foreign interference” when an unwanted candidate threatened to win. 7/11
August 26, 2025 at 9:13 PM
If Orban takes the nuclear option as regards to dealing with Peter Magyar, this is the most likely scenario. Using past precedent in other member states (Romania, in this instance) as political cover and decrying objections from Brussels as double standards.
Reposted by Marcus How
Since 2010, when Viktor Orbán returned to power, he and Fidesz have been steadily checking off the boxes for building a mafia state in Hungary. At some point, Orbán seems to have decided never to leave power again. 1/11
August 26, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Since 2010, when Viktor Orbán returned to power, he and Fidesz have been steadily checking off the boxes for building a mafia state in Hungary. At some point, Orbán seems to have decided never to leave power again. 1/11
Hard to disagree with any of this. The outcome of the presidential election was a catastrophe for Tusk and his coalition. As things stand, Poland is a ticking time bomb for Europe.
A gloomy, hard-hitting article about Donald Tusks' failure to turn Poland around:
"Just like Joe Biden squeezed between two terms of Donald Trump, Tusk will also turn out to be the parenthesis, a brief interlude in a wider populist-nationalist reign"
www.ft.com/content/d28c...
"Just like Joe Biden squeezed between two terms of Donald Trump, Tusk will also turn out to be the parenthesis, a brief interlude in a wider populist-nationalist reign"
www.ft.com/content/d28c...
As Europe faces down Russia, Poland is becoming the weakest link
Donald Tusk will struggle to deliver on his campaign promises — setting the stage for even greater Euroscepticism
www.ft.com
August 20, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Hard to disagree with any of this. The outcome of the presidential election was a catastrophe for Tusk and his coalition. As things stand, Poland is a ticking time bomb for Europe.
Reposted by Marcus How
After years of hard work and months of even harder waiting, it’s an incredible feeling to announce that CENTRAL EUROPE is officially out! 🥳
Go and pick up a copy at any good bookshop!
Go and pick up a copy at any good bookshop!
August 14, 2025 at 11:02 AM
After years of hard work and months of even harder waiting, it’s an incredible feeling to announce that CENTRAL EUROPE is officially out! 🥳
Go and pick up a copy at any good bookshop!
Go and pick up a copy at any good bookshop!
Reposted by Marcus How
Still difficult, even in 2025, to get anywhere in Austria without Bruno Kreisky.
*Bruno Kreisky's Foreign Policy. A Reassessment.* New from Berghahn.
We have a good feeling about this book.
www.berghahnbooks.com/title/Bischo...
*Bruno Kreisky's Foreign Policy. A Reassessment.* New from Berghahn.
We have a good feeling about this book.
www.berghahnbooks.com/title/Bischo...
Bruno Kreisky’s Foreign Policy: A Reassessment | Berghahn Books
Independent Publishing since 1994
www.berghahnbooks.com
August 7, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Still difficult, even in 2025, to get anywhere in Austria without Bruno Kreisky.
*Bruno Kreisky's Foreign Policy. A Reassessment.* New from Berghahn.
We have a good feeling about this book.
www.berghahnbooks.com/title/Bischo...
*Bruno Kreisky's Foreign Policy. A Reassessment.* New from Berghahn.
We have a good feeling about this book.
www.berghahnbooks.com/title/Bischo...
Reposted by Marcus How
The U.S. "relies" on Austria for 29% of its imported handguns.
As a percentage of total such imports, it is the largest export item of Austria to the U.S.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
As a percentage of total such imports, it is the largest export item of Austria to the U.S.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
June 10, 2025 at 11:04 AM
The U.S. "relies" on Austria for 29% of its imported handguns.
As a percentage of total such imports, it is the largest export item of Austria to the U.S.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
As a percentage of total such imports, it is the largest export item of Austria to the U.S.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Reposted by Marcus How
"Austria has one of the most heavily armed civilian populations in Europe, with an estimated 30 firearms per 100 persons, according to the Small Arms Survey, an independent research project", schreibt Reuters.
Krass, war mir nicht bewusst.
Krass, war mir nicht bewusst.
June 10, 2025 at 10:34 AM
"Austria has one of the most heavily armed civilian populations in Europe, with an estimated 30 firearms per 100 persons, according to the Small Arms Survey, an independent research project", schreibt Reuters.
Krass, war mir nicht bewusst.
Krass, war mir nicht bewusst.
Reposted by Marcus How
🇵🇱⚖️🗳️ The rule of law repair process in Poland just got incredibly more difficult. I expect President Nawrocki to be even less cooperative than Duda, as Nawrocki will work hard for a PiS parliamentary election victory. Tough times ahead. 1/
June 2, 2025 at 4:08 AM
🇵🇱⚖️🗳️ The rule of law repair process in Poland just got incredibly more difficult. I expect President Nawrocki to be even less cooperative than Duda, as Nawrocki will work hard for a PiS parliamentary election victory. Tough times ahead. 1/
Reposted by Marcus How
While Russia is suffering horrendous casualties in Ukraine and failing by most metrics, European states perceive it as an existential threat—and are frantically preparing for an attack.
In my new piece for @foreignpolicy.com, I make sense of this paradox.
1/5
foreignpolicy.com?p=1195629&pr...
In my new piece for @foreignpolicy.com, I make sense of this paradox.
1/5
foreignpolicy.com?p=1195629&pr...
A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine
Moscow will seek to avoid a full-on war and focus on breaking the bloc’s resolve.
foreignpolicy.com
May 19, 2025 at 7:22 PM
While Russia is suffering horrendous casualties in Ukraine and failing by most metrics, European states perceive it as an existential threat—and are frantically preparing for an attack.
In my new piece for @foreignpolicy.com, I make sense of this paradox.
1/5
foreignpolicy.com?p=1195629&pr...
In my new piece for @foreignpolicy.com, I make sense of this paradox.
1/5
foreignpolicy.com?p=1195629&pr...
A victory by Simion in the Romanian presidential runoff is likely. On paper, Nicusor Dan just doesn't have the numbers as PSD inclined voters in rural areas who backed the GroKo candidate Crin Antonescu or Victor Ponta just won't mobilise for him. PSD is split on the issue. And yet.. 1/3
🇷🇴🇵🇱🗳️ This Sunday CEE gets a voting extravaganza: the first round of Polish presidential election and perhaps more importantly, the extremely close second round of Romanian vote.
Romania, AtlasIntel poll:
Presidential run-off election
Simion (AUR-ECR): 50% (+1)
Dan (*-RE): 50% (-1)
+/- vs. 01-03 May 2025
Fieldwork: 09-12 May 2025
Sample size: 3,945
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
Presidential run-off election
Simion (AUR-ECR): 50% (+1)
Dan (*-RE): 50% (-1)
+/- vs. 01-03 May 2025
Fieldwork: 09-12 May 2025
Sample size: 3,945
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
May 13, 2025 at 3:16 PM
A victory by Simion in the Romanian presidential runoff is likely. On paper, Nicusor Dan just doesn't have the numbers as PSD inclined voters in rural areas who backed the GroKo candidate Crin Antonescu or Victor Ponta just won't mobilise for him. PSD is split on the issue. And yet.. 1/3
Reposted by Marcus How
💥📈 In just six months, Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar’s TISZA party has surged to a 14-point lead over Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz, per the reliable 21 Research Center pollster—putting TISZA on the brink of a two-thirds majority in parliament.
🗳️🇭🇺 Next election is in April 2026.
🗳️🇭🇺 Next election is in April 2026.
April 10, 2025 at 12:24 PM
💥📈 In just six months, Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar’s TISZA party has surged to a 14-point lead over Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz, per the reliable 21 Research Center pollster—putting TISZA on the brink of a two-thirds majority in parliament.
🗳️🇭🇺 Next election is in April 2026.
🗳️🇭🇺 Next election is in April 2026.
Reposted by Marcus How
Austria’s security services (DSN) have uncovered a Russian disinformation operation, coordinated through a Bulgarian intermediary. The campaign aimed to discredit Ukraine in German-speaking countries by deploying fake pro-Ukraine content embedded with extremist cues to manipulate perception. 1/6
April 9, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Austria’s security services (DSN) have uncovered a Russian disinformation operation, coordinated through a Bulgarian intermediary. The campaign aimed to discredit Ukraine in German-speaking countries by deploying fake pro-Ukraine content embedded with extremist cues to manipulate perception. 1/6
Reposted by Marcus How
The Israeli entrepreneur Shalev Hulio gained notoriety for designing Pegasus, the spyware used by governments to hack journalists and dissidents. Today, he is selling a new AI cyber security tool to European states and corporations. His secret asset? Austria’s former leader Sebastian Kurz. [Thread]
April 8, 2025 at 3:01 PM
The Israeli entrepreneur Shalev Hulio gained notoriety for designing Pegasus, the spyware used by governments to hack journalists and dissidents. Today, he is selling a new AI cyber security tool to European states and corporations. His secret asset? Austria’s former leader Sebastian Kurz. [Thread]
Reposted by Marcus How
💥🇺🇸 Viktor Orbán’s bromance with Trump seems to be fading—a new short doc explores why. For example, experts like ex-Trump advisor Ken Weinstein say Orbán’s cozying up to China and its car industry clashes with Trump’s key foreign policy goals.
🎥 Full doc by DW: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGQ9...
🎥 Full doc by DW: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGQ9...
March 31, 2025 at 9:05 AM
💥🇺🇸 Viktor Orbán’s bromance with Trump seems to be fading—a new short doc explores why. For example, experts like ex-Trump advisor Ken Weinstein say Orbán’s cozying up to China and its car industry clashes with Trump’s key foreign policy goals.
🎥 Full doc by DW: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGQ9...
🎥 Full doc by DW: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGQ9...
My colleague Benedetta Locatelli and I provided some insights on behalf of VE Insight for SeeNews on the way in which likely policy changes by the Trump administration might impact the Western Balkans:
seenews.com/news/from-st...
seenews.com/news/from-st...
From stabiliser to dealmaker? Trump 2.0 and the Western Balkans
Since the end of the Balkan Wars in the 1990s, the US has served as one of the main underwriters of stability and development in the Western Balkans. It has pur
seenews.com
March 17, 2025 at 10:29 AM
My colleague Benedetta Locatelli and I provided some insights on behalf of VE Insight for SeeNews on the way in which likely policy changes by the Trump administration might impact the Western Balkans:
seenews.com/news/from-st...
seenews.com/news/from-st...
Reposted by Marcus How
Wenn die SPÖ schon nicht mit der SPÖ kann, wie soll sie dann mit der ÖVP und den Neos können?
diesubstanz.at/parteien/sch...
diesubstanz.at/parteien/sch...
Schwachstelle - dieSubstanz.at
ANALYSE. Das SPÖ-interne Ringen um das Finanzministerium lässt Schlimmes befürchten für eine schwarz-rot-pinke Koalition. Das muss man der ÖVP lassen: Sie schafft es immer wieder, über ihre Lage hinwe...
diesubstanz.at
February 27, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Wenn die SPÖ schon nicht mit der SPÖ kann, wie soll sie dann mit der ÖVP und den Neos können?
diesubstanz.at/parteien/sch...
diesubstanz.at/parteien/sch...
Reposted by Marcus How
*🇦🇹 MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA.. 🇦🇹* And it’s (sort of) final! The People’s Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and NEOS have formed a centrist coalition government, ending a rollercoaster of three rounds of negotiations that lasted 151 days – the longest period in Austria’s post-war history. 1/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
*🇦🇹 MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA.. 🇦🇹* And it’s (sort of) final! The People’s Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and NEOS have formed a centrist coalition government, ending a rollercoaster of three rounds of negotiations that lasted 151 days – the longest period in Austria’s post-war history. 1/
Reposted by Marcus How
A timely post on the almost-there new govt in Austria...
"The NEOS, in securing the foreign ministry, will add a stronger Euroatlanticist accent to foreign policy. Further integration into EU defence programmes is envisaged."
"The NEOS, in securing the foreign ministry, will add a stronger Euroatlanticist accent to foreign policy. Further integration into EU defence programmes is envisaged."
*🇦🇹 MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA.. 🇦🇹* And it’s (sort of) final! The People’s Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and NEOS have formed a centrist coalition government, ending a rollercoaster of three rounds of negotiations that lasted 151 days – the longest period in Austria’s post-war history. 1/
February 27, 2025 at 7:30 PM
A timely post on the almost-there new govt in Austria...
"The NEOS, in securing the foreign ministry, will add a stronger Euroatlanticist accent to foreign policy. Further integration into EU defence programmes is envisaged."
"The NEOS, in securing the foreign ministry, will add a stronger Euroatlanticist accent to foreign policy. Further integration into EU defence programmes is envisaged."
*🇦🇹 MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA.. 🇦🇹* And it’s (sort of) final! The People’s Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and NEOS have formed a centrist coalition government, ending a rollercoaster of three rounds of negotiations that lasted 151 days – the longest period in Austria’s post-war history. 1/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
*🇦🇹 MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA.. 🇦🇹* And it’s (sort of) final! The People’s Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and NEOS have formed a centrist coalition government, ending a rollercoaster of three rounds of negotiations that lasted 151 days – the longest period in Austria’s post-war history. 1/