I agree that Dan was a good candidate, and in that sense not the default fallback, but the primary motivating factor was the vote against Simion. Moldova is a different kettle of fish in that it is under continuous attack by hostile actors through captured parties. Not a "normal" voting environment.

I don't really agree with that. They are an established presence, especially in metropolitan areas, but they have systematically underperformed expectations, even at their high point in 2020. At best they have been kingmakers. Not nothing, but hardly dominant.

The Neos are the fourth largest party and added 1% to their vote share in 2024. They are in government but are already slumping in the polls. Not really successful, certainly not surprisingly so. Nicosur Dan's victory in Romania was also more a case of cordon sanitaire than victory of liberalism.

A.k.a. Johnson

Not even the crisis of the Tory Party

Might just swipe that

Politics by local lowest common denominator..

Very easily: Orban is so blinkered by his ideological agenda (such as it is), that he was prepared to sacrifice the interests of ethnic Hungarians, many with dual citizenship, for the benefit of a candidate well known for his active hostility towards them.

80% of Hungarians in Romania breaking for Dan.. given how much leverage Fidesz have over ethnic Hungarian communities, this is a major black eye for Orban entirely borne of hubris and complacency.

So it not quite a foregone conclusion. Polling in Romania has a (deservedly) bad reputation. That said, this is Simion's election to lose. Dan will really struggle to reach into the constituencies he needs to. And the crucial diaspora vote has thus far weighted overwhelmingly for Simion. 3/3

..it is possible for Dan to squeak a narrow win. In the 2014 runoff, when Klaus Iohannis faced Victor Ponta, the polls were widening for Ponta until voting day. Iohannis pulled a blinder by mobilising undecided or otherwise apathetic voters, especially in the diaspora. 2/