Marcus How
@marcus-how.bsky.social
Head of Analysis at VE Insight (formerly ViennEast). Interested in Austria & CEE. Austro-Essexian hybrid. Opinions expressed are my own.
..it is possible for Dan to squeak a narrow win. In the 2014 runoff, when Klaus Iohannis faced Victor Ponta, the polls were widening for Ponta until voting day. Iohannis pulled a blinder by mobilising undecided or otherwise apathetic voters, especially in the diaspora. 2/
May 13, 2025 at 3:16 PM
..it is possible for Dan to squeak a narrow win. In the 2014 runoff, when Klaus Iohannis faced Victor Ponta, the polls were widening for Ponta until voting day. Iohannis pulled a blinder by mobilising undecided or otherwise apathetic voters, especially in the diaspora. 2/
But the new power constellation, with its many factions and interests, is as fragile as the stakes are high. It will not take much for this house of cards to collapse. With the uncertain geopolitical and economic outlook, the Second Republic has major challenges ahead. 24/END
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
But the new power constellation, with its many factions and interests, is as fragile as the stakes are high. It will not take much for this house of cards to collapse. With the uncertain geopolitical and economic outlook, the Second Republic has major challenges ahead. 24/END
That said, it could be a wait of 4.5 years, which is a long time. And even if the FPÖ clears up next time, it will still need a willing coalition partner. Rumblings against Kickl could begin, as his intransigence is a liability given that it led to the FPÖ unnecessarily kept from power. 22/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
That said, it could be a wait of 4.5 years, which is a long time. And even if the FPÖ clears up next time, it will still need a willing coalition partner. Rumblings against Kickl could begin, as his intransigence is a liability given that it led to the FPÖ unnecessarily kept from power. 22/
Fourth, the FPÖ has good cards. Comfortable in opposition, Kickl will rail against the establishment parties dirtying their snouts at the public trough, having locked him out of government. If the government struggles, Kickl can conceivably bank on winning 35-40% of the vote next time. 21/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Fourth, the FPÖ has good cards. Comfortable in opposition, Kickl will rail against the establishment parties dirtying their snouts at the public trough, having locked him out of government. If the government struggles, Kickl can conceivably bank on winning 35-40% of the vote next time. 21/
Third, there is the question of competence. Most of the cabinet have negligible experience of government, not least Stocker and Babler. It says something when the most experienced ministers are ÖVP apparatchiks and party placeholders from Lower Austria and Tyrol. 20/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Third, there is the question of competence. Most of the cabinet have negligible experience of government, not least Stocker and Babler. It says something when the most experienced ministers are ÖVP apparatchiks and party placeholders from Lower Austria and Tyrol. 20/
The NEOS, with its decentralised leadership structure, is also something of a wild card. Their leader and incoming foreign minister, Beate Meinl-Reisinger, is charismatic and energetic, but not entirely in control of the party, which has a mercurial neoliberal faction. 19/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
The NEOS, with its decentralised leadership structure, is also something of a wild card. Their leader and incoming foreign minister, Beate Meinl-Reisinger, is charismatic and energetic, but not entirely in control of the party, which has a mercurial neoliberal faction. 19/
A leadership change would not necessarily destabilise the government. The ÖVP and SPÖ have both swapped out leaders before without pulling the plug. Equally, both parties are as fragile as they are directionless, making them as unpredictable as an old car with broken steering and brakes. 18/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
A leadership change would not necessarily destabilise the government. The ÖVP and SPÖ have both swapped out leaders before without pulling the plug. Equally, both parties are as fragile as they are directionless, making them as unpredictable as an old car with broken steering and brakes. 18/
It is not inconceivable that, as the painful realities of cohabitation set in, leadership challenges will ensue. Babler, an outsider in the SPÖ, has many enemies and a lacklustre electoral record. In the ÖVP, the nostalgic and deluded dream of a glorious return by Sebastian Kurz. 17/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
It is not inconceivable that, as the painful realities of cohabitation set in, leadership challenges will ensue. Babler, an outsider in the SPÖ, has many enemies and a lacklustre electoral record. In the ÖVP, the nostalgic and deluded dream of a glorious return by Sebastian Kurz. 17/
Second, the ÖVP and SPÖ are in a sorry condition. Both Stocker and Babler lack the authority within their own parties. Stocker, the accidental chancellor, originally replaced Nehammer on an interim basis, before settling in place because no alternative candidates stepped forward. 16/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Second, the ÖVP and SPÖ are in a sorry condition. Both Stocker and Babler lack the authority within their own parties. Stocker, the accidental chancellor, originally replaced Nehammer on an interim basis, before settling in place because no alternative candidates stepped forward. 16/
First, it is taking on the thankless task of fiscal consolidation following two years of recession, as well as high levels of inflation and overspending. In 2025 and 2026 alone, the government has committed to finding €16bn in revenue, which it has structured to avoid burden on individuals. 14/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
First, it is taking on the thankless task of fiscal consolidation following two years of recession, as well as high levels of inflation and overspending. In 2025 and 2026 alone, the government has committed to finding €16bn in revenue, which it has structured to avoid burden on individuals. 14/
Indeed, although many participants and observers may be breathing a sigh of relief that Herbert Kickl will not achieve his dream of becoming “Volkskanzler,” this new government – the GroKo Plus – faces strong headwinds. 13/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Indeed, although many participants and observers may be breathing a sigh of relief that Herbert Kickl will not achieve his dream of becoming “Volkskanzler,” this new government – the GroKo Plus – faces strong headwinds. 13/
The coalition agreement is very Austrian in being a Proporz smorgasbord of compromises serving the clientele and constituents of the participating parties. Pragmatism is welcome, but the overarching strategic vision is lacking. It is a peculiar power constellation, with many cooks at the broth. 12/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
The coalition agreement is very Austrian in being a Proporz smorgasbord of compromises serving the clientele and constituents of the participating parties. Pragmatism is welcome, but the overarching strategic vision is lacking. It is a peculiar power constellation, with many cooks at the broth. 12/
It was possible to conclude these within a week, with all three parties making significant concessions they previously resisted. Now, Christian Stocker, a backroom politician thrust onto centre stage, will become chancellor, flanked by Andi Babler, the SPÖ’s left-wing leader. 7/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
It was possible to conclude these within a week, with all three parties making significant concessions they previously resisted. Now, Christian Stocker, a backroom politician thrust onto centre stage, will become chancellor, flanked by Andi Babler, the SPÖ’s left-wing leader. 7/
Thus, after a day of bizarre last ditch negotiations conducted through the press service, the FPÖ and ÖVP decided to go their separate ways. Soon, under pressure from President Alexander Van der Bellen, the ÖVP resurrected its expired negotiations with the SPÖ and NEOS. 6/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Thus, after a day of bizarre last ditch negotiations conducted through the press service, the FPÖ and ÖVP decided to go their separate ways. Soon, under pressure from President Alexander Van der Bellen, the ÖVP resurrected its expired negotiations with the SPÖ and NEOS. 6/
Yet, after four weeks of negotiations, the ÖVP realised that the FPÖ, led by Herbert Kickl, was not only largely uncompromising on its agenda, but wished to subjugate its partner. Gazing into the abyss, the ÖVP realised that the low odds of survival by jumping into it were not worth it. 5/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Yet, after four weeks of negotiations, the ÖVP realised that the FPÖ, led by Herbert Kickl, was not only largely uncompromising on its agenda, but wished to subjugate its partner. Gazing into the abyss, the ÖVP realised that the low odds of survival by jumping into it were not worth it. 5/
These negotiations lasted over 100 days before the wheels came off at the last minute. Stakeholders in the ÖVP prompted a shift, opting to enter negotiations with the FPÖ after all. Chancellor and ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer resigned, replaced by his General secretary, Christian Stocker. 4/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
These negotiations lasted over 100 days before the wheels came off at the last minute. Stakeholders in the ÖVP prompted a shift, opting to enter negotiations with the FPÖ after all. Chancellor and ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer resigned, replaced by his General secretary, Christian Stocker. 4/
A recap: the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) came first in the elections with 28.9% of the vote, but due to the refusal of all other parties to partner with the FPÖ, the ÖVP was mandated to start negotiations to form a three-party coalition with the SPÖ and NEOS. 3/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
A recap: the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) came first in the elections with 28.9% of the vote, but due to the refusal of all other parties to partner with the FPÖ, the ÖVP was mandated to start negotiations to form a three-party coalition with the SPÖ and NEOS. 3/
*🇦🇹 MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA.. 🇦🇹* And it’s (sort of) final! The People’s Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and NEOS have formed a centrist coalition government, ending a rollercoaster of three rounds of negotiations that lasted 151 days – the longest period in Austria’s post-war history. 1/
February 27, 2025 at 5:47 PM
*🇦🇹 MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA.. 🇦🇹* And it’s (sort of) final! The People’s Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and NEOS have formed a centrist coalition government, ending a rollercoaster of three rounds of negotiations that lasted 151 days – the longest period in Austria’s post-war history. 1/
As has ever been the case since 2017, Austria has not failed to deliver political drama, nor will it cease to do so. The FPÖ might not be entering government now, with Kickl experiencing a major personal failure, at least on paper; but the political centre is far from being out of the woods. 27/END
February 12, 2025 at 5:51 PM
As has ever been the case since 2017, Austria has not failed to deliver political drama, nor will it cease to do so. The FPÖ might not be entering government now, with Kickl experiencing a major personal failure, at least on paper; but the political centre is far from being out of the woods. 27/END
The third scenario is that snap elections are held in the next 3-6 months. This is unlikely, as the ÖVP and SPÖ currently have nothing to gain by doing so, as they are lacking strategic orientation as well as the money. The FPÖ, meanwhile, is in the opposite position. 24/
February 12, 2025 at 5:51 PM
The third scenario is that snap elections are held in the next 3-6 months. This is unlikely, as the ÖVP and SPÖ currently have nothing to gain by doing so, as they are lacking strategic orientation as well as the money. The FPÖ, meanwhile, is in the opposite position. 24/
The second scenario is that the ÖVP and SPÖ restart negotiations for a grand coalition, probably supported in some way or other by the NEOS and Greens. The SPÖ has signalled its willingness. However, party leader Andi Babler remains a major obstacle for the ÖVP. 23/
February 12, 2025 at 5:51 PM
The second scenario is that the ÖVP and SPÖ restart negotiations for a grand coalition, probably supported in some way or other by the NEOS and Greens. The SPÖ has signalled its willingness. However, party leader Andi Babler remains a major obstacle for the ÖVP. 23/
Austria had experience of this in 2019, following the infamous Ibiza scandal. The technocratic government at that time was successful in calming the mood and was popular with the public. It was in power for six months, with snap elections falling in-between. 22/
February 12, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Austria had experience of this in 2019, following the infamous Ibiza scandal. The technocratic government at that time was successful in calming the mood and was popular with the public. It was in power for six months, with snap elections falling in-between. 22/
So, what now? There are three scenarios. The first and most likely is that President Alexander Van der Bellen mandates the formation of a technocratic government that will begin budget consolidation and ensure stability. It would be supported by all parties but the FPÖ in parliament. 21/
February 12, 2025 at 5:51 PM
So, what now? There are three scenarios. The first and most likely is that President Alexander Van der Bellen mandates the formation of a technocratic government that will begin budget consolidation and ensure stability. It would be supported by all parties but the FPÖ in parliament. 21/
This is flawed thinking. Even if the FPÖ increases it gains in snap elections, Austria’s proportional system will still require partnership with the ÖVP. Treating its junior partner contemptuously, turning it into the character “Reek” in Game of Thrones, is not a recipe for stability. 19/
February 12, 2025 at 5:51 PM
This is flawed thinking. Even if the FPÖ increases it gains in snap elections, Austria’s proportional system will still require partnership with the ÖVP. Treating its junior partner contemptuously, turning it into the character “Reek” in Game of Thrones, is not a recipe for stability. 19/