Fabian Hoffmann
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frhoffmann.bsky.social
Fabian Hoffmann
@frhoffmann.bsky.social
Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, University of Oslo. Defense policy, missile technology, and nuclear strategy.

Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence 👇
https://missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
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Hi all,

I published a new Missile Matters post, where I assess how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk.

In my view, they do not represent a critical capability, and alternative options may be advantageous.

Access the post here, short summary below.

1/6

missilematters.substack.com/p/how-badly-...
How Badly Does Ukraine Need American Tomahawk Cruise Missiles?
Why investing in domestic production may serve Ukraine better than limited Western missile transfers
missilematters.substack.com
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Finally had time to watch House of Dynamite. Honestly, I expected worse.

But it's frustrating, because with even a bit of research, they could have come up with a scenario that was both exciting enough for a movie and realistic. Instead, they went with one that makes no sense at all.

1/3
November 2, 2025 at 9:55 AM
A Polish mass-produced ALCM is only a matter of time. We'll see if it ends up being this one or another design.

defence24.pl/przemysl/pow...

1/3
Powstaną polsko-amerykańskie pociski manewrujące?
Dziś zostało podpisane porozumienie pomiędzy Polską Grupą Zbrojeniową a amerykańską spółką Anduril Industries. Przedmiotem umowy jest wspólne opracowanie i produkcja autonomicznych systemów powietrzny...
defence24.pl
October 27, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Hi all,

I published a new Missile Matters post, where I assess how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk.

In my view, they do not represent a critical capability, and alternative options may be advantageous.

Access the post here, short summary below.

1/6

missilematters.substack.com/p/how-badly-...
How Badly Does Ukraine Need American Tomahawk Cruise Missiles?
Why investing in domestic production may serve Ukraine better than limited Western missile transfers
missilematters.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Russia is paying around 2.4 million USD for 9M723 short-range ballistic missiles and Kh-101 land-attack cruise missiles.

In PPP-adjusted terms, that's around 0.81 million USD. That's a good deal, so Russia has done a pretty good job keeping costs low.

defence-blog.com/analysts-bre...
Analysts break down real cost of Russian missiles
Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi has released a comprehensive analysis of classified procurement documents outlining the true cost and production volumes of Russia's long-range missile arsenal...
defence-blog.com
October 23, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Great thread (and an assessment shared e.g. with @massdara.bsky.social & @michaelkofman.bsky.social in a recent Russia Contingency Episode).

It'd be great if we'd talk less about wonder weapons and more about cost-effective long-term(!) support and committment!
Hi all,

I published a new Missile Matters post, where I assess how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk.

In my view, they do not represent a critical capability, and alternative options may be advantageous.

Access the post here, short summary below.

1/6

missilematters.substack.com/p/how-badly-...
How Badly Does Ukraine Need American Tomahawk Cruise Missiles?
Why investing in domestic production may serve Ukraine better than limited Western missile transfers
missilematters.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Interesting/convincing (except there’s the political symbolism). NB: “…there is a strong case that instead of spending the $125–200 m EUR govs wld likely need to pay… for 50 or so Tomahawks, they should invest that money directly into UKR’s missile industrial sector to scale up domestic production.”
Hi all,

I published a new Missile Matters post, where I assess how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk.

In my view, they do not represent a critical capability, and alternative options may be advantageous.

Access the post here, short summary below.

1/6

missilematters.substack.com/p/how-badly-...
How Badly Does Ukraine Need American Tomahawk Cruise Missiles?
Why investing in domestic production may serve Ukraine better than limited Western missile transfers
missilematters.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Hi all,

I published a new Missile Matters post, where I assess how badly Ukraine needs Tomahawk.

In my view, they do not represent a critical capability, and alternative options may be advantageous.

Access the post here, short summary below.

1/6

missilematters.substack.com/p/how-badly-...
How Badly Does Ukraine Need American Tomahawk Cruise Missiles?
Why investing in domestic production may serve Ukraine better than limited Western missile transfers
missilematters.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Interesting read by @frhoffmann.bsky.social. He uses the Alabuga factory complex (≈1,500 km from Ukraine), where Shahed/Geran drones are produced, as a case study to ask whether supplying Tomahawks would shift the balance in Ukraine’s favour. open.substack.com/pub/missilem...
How Badly Does Ukraine Need American Tomahawk Cruise Missiles?
Why investing in domestic production may serve Ukraine better than limited Western missile transfers
open.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Taurus integration with Gripen is at an advanced stage.

This would position Taurus as the standard heavy ALCM in Ukraine’s arsenal, at least until a domestic alternative is developed.

That in itself may be a reason to take a more ambitious approach to reopening the Taurus production line.
October 22, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Deterrence by denial (seeking to dissuade the adversary from certain unwanted actions) simply doesn't work against #Russia 's hybrid campaign against #Europe.

But deterrence by punishment comes with challenges, as Minna writes.

@frhoffmann.bsky.social has also made an interesting piece on this👇
October 10, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Hi all,

I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile intercept rate from 37 to 6 percent, as covered by the Financial Times.

Access the full post here:

missilematters.substack.com/p/what-happe...

Short summary below.

1/6
What Happened to Ukraine's Ballistic Missile Defense? Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness
Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness
missilematters.substack.com
October 7, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
I subscribe to too many emails, but one of the few I actually read is Missile Matters. It’s suitably geeky, and provides a deeper understanding of missile warfare which is a topic you see discussed surprisingly often in news and social media these days 😅

This week’s conclusions are spot on.
October 7, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Hi all,

I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile intercept rate from 37 to 6 percent, as covered by the Financial Times.

Access the full post here:

missilematters.substack.com/p/what-happe...

Short summary below.

1/6
What Happened to Ukraine's Ballistic Missile Defense? Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness
Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness
missilematters.substack.com
October 7, 2025 at 11:28 AM
I’ve written a short piece on the recent reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile defense intercept rate.

It will be published tomorrow morning on my Missile Matters blog. You can sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.

missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
October 6, 2025 at 11:42 AM
European defense manufacturer Helsing presented the CA-1 Europa, a UCAV reportedly capable of performing a range of missions, including deep precision strike.

First test flight expected in 2027.
September 25, 2025 at 11:01 AM
If I did not have to finish my dissertation, I would probably look up the number of AI-25 turbofan engines that can be sources from the open market.

My ballpark estimate is a low three digit number.

1/2

militarnyi.com/uk/news/fire...
Fire Point локалізує виробництво реактивних двигунів для крилатих ракет
Fire Point створила запас реактивних двигунів для крилатих ракет «Фламінго» та будує новий завод для їх ліцензійного виробництва.
militarnyi.com
September 24, 2025 at 7:29 AM
The documents show 2.373 billion euros in funding for Taurus NEO.

This is similar to the 2.1 billion euros reported by Spiegel 11 months ago for 600 missiles. The slight increase may reflect higher material costs or a somewhat larger number of missiles being ordered

www.politico.eu/article/germ...
Germany’s €80B rearmament plan sidelines US weapons
A procurement plan obtained by POLITICO shows Berlin’s rearmament spree will overwhelmingly benefit European industry.
www.politico.eu
September 23, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Hi all,

I just published my latest Missile Matters post on the precarious state of Europe's mini jet engine industry, a sector that is critical to Europe's missile rearmament but remains underappreciated.

Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/small-thru...

Short summary below.

1/7
Small Thrust, Big Questions: Why Europe is Falling Behind in Cruise Missile Engine Technology
Europe's missile rearmament faces a critical bottleneck in mini jet engine production
missilematters.substack.com
September 21, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Hi all,

I just published my latest Missile Matters post on the precarious state of Europe's mini jet engine industry, a sector that is critical to Europe's missile rearmament but remains underappreciated.

Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/small-thru...

Short summary below.

1/7
Small Thrust, Big Questions: Why Europe is Falling Behind in Cruise Missile Engine Technology
Europe's missile rearmament faces a critical bottleneck in mini jet engine production
missilematters.substack.com
September 21, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Hi all,

I published a new Missile Matters post on Europe’s challenge in countering long-range drones.

Access the full post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/europe-nee...

Short summary below.

1/5
Countering Russia’s Long-Range Drone Threat
Challenges and options for European long-range drone defense
missilematters.substack.com
September 15, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
I fully agree with @frhoffmann.bsky.social here.
I have for long argued that deterrence has to contain defensive and offensive capability. When I argued for 🇩🇰 acquisition of TLAM 7-8 years ago, there were many who ironically saw this as “too offensive”
warontherocks.com/2025/09/deni...
Denial Won’t Do: Europe Needs a Punishment-Based Conventional Counterstrike Strategy
Explosions over Kyiv and other Ukrainian population centers are daily reminders that Russia’s missiles can reach deep and strike hard. Beyond the
warontherocks.com
September 15, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann
Countering Russia’s Long-Range Drone Threat
Challenges and options for European long-range drone defense
By @frhoffmann.bsky.social
missilematters.substack.com/p/europe-nee...
Countering Russia’s Long-Range Drone Threat
Challenges and options for European long-range drone defense
missilematters.substack.com
September 15, 2025 at 5:38 AM
I'll be writing about the relevance of this event, as well as the general importance of mini-turbojet/turbofan technology, and why Europe is in a pretty bad spot, in my newsletter this weekend.

You can sign up here to receive it straight in your inbox: missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
September 9, 2025 at 2:03 PM
It is difficult to overstate what an industry-policy failure it is for the EU and wider Europe to have enticed PBS Group to invest in the United States rather than scale up production in Europe.

1/2
September 9, 2025 at 11:01 AM