Mujtaba Rahman
@mijrahman.bsky.social
Managing Director, Europe and co-head of London office, Eurasia Group. Formerly HM Treasury and European Commission. Senior Research Fellow, LSE European Institute. ECFR Council Member. My views. Seeking analytical truth
https://www.eurasiagroup.net
https://www.eurasiagroup.net
Pinned
Mujtaba Rahman
@mijrahman.bsky.social
· Nov 13
I've put together a starter pack for smart voices on EU politics
I learned a lot from these accounts on Twitter
There are gaps - either because I've missed people or because they're not yet on BlueSky, so pls send suggestions and I'll amend periodically
go.bsky.app/2QjVmxC
I learned a lot from these accounts on Twitter
There are gaps - either because I've missed people or because they're not yet on BlueSky, so pls send suggestions and I'll amend periodically
go.bsky.app/2QjVmxC
🇩🇰 goal of keeping 🇬🇱 out of the headlines & avoiding megaphone diplomacy is over. They're leaning in - rightly
🇩🇰 PM: “I believe one should take the 🇺🇸 president seriously when he says he wants 🇬🇱. But if the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO.”
🇩🇰 PM: “I believe one should take the 🇺🇸 president seriously when he says he wants 🇬🇱. But if the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO.”
January 5, 2026 at 9:28 PM
🇩🇰 goal of keeping 🇬🇱 out of the headlines & avoiding megaphone diplomacy is over. They're leaning in - rightly
🇩🇰 PM: “I believe one should take the 🇺🇸 president seriously when he says he wants 🇬🇱. But if the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO.”
🇩🇰 PM: “I believe one should take the 🇺🇸 president seriously when he says he wants 🇬🇱. But if the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO.”
The ability of the U.K. to play both sides - reset with the EU while seeking proximity to Trump - is going to hit a wall in 2026 if the US advances its plan to annex Greenland (which it will)
January 5, 2026 at 12:58 PM
The ability of the U.K. to play both sides - reset with the EU while seeking proximity to Trump - is going to hit a wall in 2026 if the US advances its plan to annex Greenland (which it will)
A belated condemnation of Trump's Venezuela coup by President Macron today. He told the French government cabinet meeting that he " neither supported nor approved" the way that Maduro was removed from power
www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...
www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...
EN DIRECT - Venezuela : Emmanuel Macron affirme que la France «n’approuve pas» la «méthode» pour renverser Nicolas Maduro
Donald Trump a assuré dimanche que les États-Unis étaient désormais «aux commandes» au Venezuela à la suite de la capture du président Nicolás Maduro. «Cuba est prêt à tomber», a aussi déclaré le prés...
www.lefigaro.fr
January 5, 2026 at 12:12 PM
A belated condemnation of Trump's Venezuela coup by President Macron today. He told the French government cabinet meeting that he " neither supported nor approved" the way that Maduro was removed from power
www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...
www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...
My thoughts to POLITICO Europe regarding Trump's designs on Greenland
“Methods would likely differ from those employed in Venezuela. Instead of a military operation, Washington could resort to a political influence campaign to shift the current equilibrium.”
www.politico.eu/newsletter/b...
“Methods would likely differ from those employed in Venezuela. Instead of a military operation, Washington could resort to a political influence campaign to shift the current equilibrium.”
www.politico.eu/newsletter/b...
Is Greenland next?
Presented by Mediterranea Saving Humans By NICHOLAS VINOCUR PRESENTED BY Send tips here | Contact us on X @gerardofortuna @NicholasVinocur | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser GREETINGS. I…
www.politico.eu
January 5, 2026 at 10:28 AM
My thoughts to POLITICO Europe regarding Trump's designs on Greenland
“Methods would likely differ from those employed in Venezuela. Instead of a military operation, Washington could resort to a political influence campaign to shift the current equilibrium.”
www.politico.eu/newsletter/b...
“Methods would likely differ from those employed in Venezuela. Instead of a military operation, Washington could resort to a political influence campaign to shift the current equilibrium.”
www.politico.eu/newsletter/b...
As I've long argued, the Greenland risk is underpriced
A possible US intervention in Greenland is the biggest source of risk to the transatlantic alliance and intra-NATO and intra-EU cohesion, arguably far greater than those presented by
Russia's invasion of Ukraine
A possible US intervention in Greenland is the biggest source of risk to the transatlantic alliance and intra-NATO and intra-EU cohesion, arguably far greater than those presented by
Russia's invasion of Ukraine
January 4, 2026 at 4:04 PM
As I've long argued, the Greenland risk is underpriced
A possible US intervention in Greenland is the biggest source of risk to the transatlantic alliance and intra-NATO and intra-EU cohesion, arguably far greater than those presented by
Russia's invasion of Ukraine
A possible US intervention in Greenland is the biggest source of risk to the transatlantic alliance and intra-NATO and intra-EU cohesion, arguably far greater than those presented by
Russia's invasion of Ukraine
European weakness on full display by these horribly contorted responses from Merz, Macron and Starmer - neither condoning nor condemning US actions in Venezuela
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
January 3, 2026 at 7:43 PM
European weakness on full display by these horribly contorted responses from Merz, Macron and Starmer - neither condoning nor condemning US actions in Venezuela
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)
One step too far in Trump appeasement. Problem if Bardella appears a greater defender of the international order than Macron. But he and all the Europeans are terrified of losing even partial US support in Ukraine. A mess
January 3, 2026 at 7:21 PM
One step too far in Trump appeasement. Problem if Bardella appears a greater defender of the international order than Macron. But he and all the Europeans are terrified of losing even partial US support in Ukraine. A mess
Bardella and Le Pen are being clever, but hypocritical. The French far right has always been anti American, even during the Cold War. But they have been less wholehearted in their condemnation of Russian expansionism/imperialism
January 3, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Bardella and Le Pen are being clever, but hypocritical. The French far right has always been anti American, even during the Cold War. But they have been less wholehearted in their condemnation of Russian expansionism/imperialism
Trump's audacious and probably illegal capture of a Venezuelan leader of doubtful legality suggests he believes he has the right to intervene, i.e. grab what he wants, anywhere in the western hemisphere. Europe, already worried by Trump's Greenland rhetoric, has been warned
January 3, 2026 at 1:30 PM
Trump's audacious and probably illegal capture of a Venezuelan leader of doubtful legality suggests he believes he has the right to intervene, i.e. grab what he wants, anywhere in the western hemisphere. Europe, already worried by Trump's Greenland rhetoric, has been warned
Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman
Comment quatre ans de guerre en Ukraine ont redéfini l'Europe. Avec @nathalietocci.bsky.social @haukkala.bsky.social @sbeverts.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social, Monika Sus et d'autres.
Comment quatre années de guerre en Ukraine ont redéfini l’Union européenne
ANALYSE. Avec l’agression de l’Ukraine par la Russie, le monde dans lequel s’était construite l’UE a disparu. Les Vingt-Sept ont compris tardivement que la paix n’était « plus acquise en Europe » et p...
www.lemonde.fr
January 2, 2026 at 8:09 AM
Comment quatre ans de guerre en Ukraine ont redéfini l'Europe. Avec @nathalietocci.bsky.social @haukkala.bsky.social @sbeverts.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social, Monika Sus et d'autres.
Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman
How the war in Ukraine redefined Europe.
With @nathalietocci.bsky.social @haukkala.bsky.social @sbeverts.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social, Monika Sus and more🙏
With @nathalietocci.bsky.social @haukkala.bsky.social @sbeverts.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social, Monika Sus and more🙏
How four years of war in Ukraine redefined the European Union
With Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the world that saw the construction of EU has all but disappeared. The 27 member states belatedly recognized that peace was 'no longer a given in Europe,' and...
www.lemonde.fr
January 2, 2026 at 8:12 AM
How the war in Ukraine redefined Europe.
With @nathalietocci.bsky.social @haukkala.bsky.social @sbeverts.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social, Monika Sus and more🙏
With @nathalietocci.bsky.social @haukkala.bsky.social @sbeverts.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social, Monika Sus and more🙏
Excellent thread by @robfordmancs.bsky.social
I also believe that Starmer's tenure as PM will come to an abrupt end in 2026. Will we be wrong?
I also believe that Starmer's tenure as PM will come to an abrupt end in 2026. Will we be wrong?
Time for some more 2026 predictions, I've covered everything from Trump to beans so far, but now we get on to the hard stuff: polls, leaders, seats - follow on in the thread below
No idea but as an avid baked bean consumer I hope we aren’t going to face shortages or price spikes
bsky.app/profile/maai...
bsky.app/profile/maai...
December 30, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Excellent thread by @robfordmancs.bsky.social
I also believe that Starmer's tenure as PM will come to an abrupt end in 2026. Will we be wrong?
I also believe that Starmer's tenure as PM will come to an abrupt end in 2026. Will we be wrong?
This is the first time Macron has retaliated so angrily against the provocations of his alleged "friend" Donald Trump. The policy of appeasement and flattery is breaking down.
December 24, 2025 at 2:17 PM
This is the first time Macron has retaliated so angrily against the provocations of his alleged "friend" Donald Trump. The policy of appeasement and flattery is breaking down.
Well said @ec.europa.eu
“The EU is an open, rules-based single market, with the sovereign right to regulate economic activity in line with our democratic values and international commitments”
www.ft.com/content/c4e7...
“The EU is an open, rules-based single market, with the sovereign right to regulate economic activity in line with our democratic values and international commitments”
www.ft.com/content/c4e7...
US bars former EU commissioner Thierry Breton and others over tech rules
France hits out at visa sanctions as Washington targets what it calls the ‘global censorship-industrial complex’
www.ft.com
December 24, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Well said @ec.europa.eu
“The EU is an open, rules-based single market, with the sovereign right to regulate economic activity in line with our democratic values and international commitments”
www.ft.com/content/c4e7...
“The EU is an open, rules-based single market, with the sovereign right to regulate economic activity in line with our democratic values and international commitments”
www.ft.com/content/c4e7...
Reposting my @politico.eu piece from October, in light of Jeff Landry's appointment as special envoy, on how the Greenland risk is underpriced and could become the biggest risk to transatlantic relations
www.politico.eu/article/gree...
www.politico.eu/article/gree...
Greenland could become biggest car crash in transatlantic relations
The Danes are right: If the U.S. president presses ahead in the autonomous territory, others can and will follow elsewhere.
www.politico.eu
December 23, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Reposting my @politico.eu piece from October, in light of Jeff Landry's appointment as special envoy, on how the Greenland risk is underpriced and could become the biggest risk to transatlantic relations
www.politico.eu/article/gree...
www.politico.eu/article/gree...
Some thoughts from me in this very good FT analysis piece on the evolving nature of the Franco-German alliance
www.ft.com/content/99d2...
www.ft.com/content/99d2...
Role reversal: how foot-dragging France blindsided newly assertive Berlin
As Friedrich Merz pushed to finalise a deal on Russian frozen assets, it became clear that he was missing one key ally
www.ft.com
December 21, 2025 at 10:05 AM
Some thoughts from me in this very good FT analysis piece on the evolving nature of the Franco-German alliance
www.ft.com/content/99d2...
www.ft.com/content/99d2...
Symbols matter. Yesterday's European Council was not about the narrow question of financing Ukraine (or how that's achieved), but the geopolitics: It was essential to demonstrate decisiveness, unity and strength and the EU vm failed to deliver 1/
December 20, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Symbols matter. Yesterday's European Council was not about the narrow question of financing Ukraine (or how that's achieved), but the geopolitics: It was essential to demonstrate decisiveness, unity and strength and the EU vm failed to deliver 1/
Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman
“Europe always works on the basis of muddling through,” says our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social following the EU’s compromise to help finance Ukraine.
“A much more decisive signal could have been sent, and they failed to do that.”
“A much more decisive signal could have been sent, and they failed to do that.”
Europe Funnels Billions to Ukraine but Wobbles Geopolitically
www.nytimes.com
December 19, 2025 at 6:41 PM
“Europe always works on the basis of muddling through,” says our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social following the EU’s compromise to help finance Ukraine.
“A much more decisive signal could have been sent, and they failed to do that.”
“A much more decisive signal could have been sent, and they failed to do that.”
There was a real risk Europe was going to end 2025 in a disastrously weak position - irrelevant on Ukraine & no deal on using Russian reserves. Instead, the US has been pulled back towards the EU position & a deal on Russian reserves is likely in tomorrow's European Council 1/2
December 17, 2025 at 8:34 AM
There was a real risk Europe was going to end 2025 in a disastrously weak position - irrelevant on Ukraine & no deal on using Russian reserves. Instead, the US has been pulled back towards the EU position & a deal on Russian reserves is likely in tomorrow's European Council 1/2
I believe Ukraine's future lies in EU and I hope EU leaders innovate and expedite Kyiv's EU path. But I tell @henryjfoy.ft.com “there is a zero per cent probability that Ukraine will be a full EU member state on 1 January 2027,” regardless of what the latest version of the US “peace plan” says.
December 13, 2025 at 7:19 AM
I believe Ukraine's future lies in EU and I hope EU leaders innovate and expedite Kyiv's EU path. But I tell @henryjfoy.ft.com “there is a zero per cent probability that Ukraine will be a full EU member state on 1 January 2027,” regardless of what the latest version of the US “peace plan” says.
Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman
Heading to Warsaw tomorrow & Berlin all next week for research meets. Top of agenda
-Outlook for Russia/Ukraine war
-Transatlantic relations in light of NSS
-EU competitiveness
-Risks in the EU in 2026
-Domestic politics in Poland, Germany etc
Get in touch if you're around!
-Outlook for Russia/Ukraine war
-Transatlantic relations in light of NSS
-EU competitiveness
-Risks in the EU in 2026
-Domestic politics in Poland, Germany etc
Get in touch if you're around!
December 10, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Heading to Warsaw tomorrow & Berlin all next week for research meets. Top of agenda
-Outlook for Russia/Ukraine war
-Transatlantic relations in light of NSS
-EU competitiveness
-Risks in the EU in 2026
-Domestic politics in Poland, Germany etc
Get in touch if you're around!
-Outlook for Russia/Ukraine war
-Transatlantic relations in light of NSS
-EU competitiveness
-Risks in the EU in 2026
-Domestic politics in Poland, Germany etc
Get in touch if you're around!
Heading to Warsaw tomorrow & Berlin all next week for research meets. Top of agenda
-Outlook for Russia/Ukraine war
-Transatlantic relations in light of NSS
-EU competitiveness
-Risks in the EU in 2026
-Domestic politics in Poland, Germany etc
Get in touch if you're around!
-Outlook for Russia/Ukraine war
-Transatlantic relations in light of NSS
-EU competitiveness
-Risks in the EU in 2026
-Domestic politics in Poland, Germany etc
Get in touch if you're around!
December 10, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Heading to Warsaw tomorrow & Berlin all next week for research meets. Top of agenda
-Outlook for Russia/Ukraine war
-Transatlantic relations in light of NSS
-EU competitiveness
-Risks in the EU in 2026
-Domestic politics in Poland, Germany etc
Get in touch if you're around!
-Outlook for Russia/Ukraine war
-Transatlantic relations in light of NSS
-EU competitiveness
-Risks in the EU in 2026
-Domestic politics in Poland, Germany etc
Get in touch if you're around!
Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman
Good prime @theguardian.com on European reactions to the US National Security Strategy, including comments from @maxbergmann.bsky.social, @mijrahman.bsky.social, @alanderminna.bsky.social and me:
European Council president warns US not to interfere in Europe’s affairs
The new US national security strategy codifies a seismic shift in transatlantic relations, say experts
www.theguardian.com
December 9, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Good prime @theguardian.com on European reactions to the US National Security Strategy, including comments from @maxbergmann.bsky.social, @mijrahman.bsky.social, @alanderminna.bsky.social and me:
Excellent piece by @gideonrachman.bsky.social - which frames the NSS correctly and walks through the three plausible implications for Europe. All of them are worrying, and will be a big part of our research coverage at Eurasia Group going forward
December 8, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Excellent piece by @gideonrachman.bsky.social - which frames the NSS correctly and walks through the three plausible implications for Europe. All of them are worrying, and will be a big part of our research coverage at Eurasia Group going forward
Reposted by Mujtaba Rahman
Oh to be a fly– or another kind of bug – on the wall of the emergency Starmer, Zelensky, Merz and Macron meeting in London tomorrow. European leaders have been obsequious about Trump’s zigzags in public; but much more honest in private if last week’s leak to Der Spiegel can be believed. 1/
December 7, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Oh to be a fly– or another kind of bug – on the wall of the emergency Starmer, Zelensky, Merz and Macron meeting in London tomorrow. European leaders have been obsequious about Trump’s zigzags in public; but much more honest in private if last week’s leak to Der Spiegel can be believed. 1/