Can he succeed and can he survive? He is a listener and an energetic networker. If anyone can find a way forward it may be him but his problems will be immense

Her fate depends on findings of PM’s adviser on ministerial standards. If she breached ministerial code, she’ll have to go. May hinge on whether she took proper advice from tax lawyer on stamp duty rather than informal advice eg from solicitor (not good enough). 60-40 she stays - she is in danger

The Far Right would remain unchanged on around 31-33% and both the splintered Left and the Centre Right would advance slightly. Although no second round seat totals are projected, the figures suggest that the Assembly would remain split three ways with no obvious governing majority ENDS

In an Ifop poll (see screenshot), the governing Centre alliance is given only 15% of the vote in a new election. An Elabe poll at the weekend gave them 14% - compared to 23% in the indecisive snap election last June 5/

Two other polls in recent days will confirm Macron’s determination not to call another parliamentary election to try to resolve the budget impasse. Both polls suggest that Macron’s Centre would lose seats, the Far Right would gain but France would still be left without a parliamentary majority 4/

The Prime Minister, François Bayrou, is even less popular than Macron – down to 14% in the Figaro barometer. He is expected to lose a confidence vote in the National Assembly on Monday after proposing a harsh 2026 outline budget to correct France’s 5.4% of GDP deficit 3/

The Figaro Magazine barometer suggests that Macron is now the second least popular President of the Fifth Republic (since 1958) but has not descended to the single figures once reached by his predecessor, François Hollande 2/