Edward Walker
@gnuggat.bsky.social
Retired. 1993-2017 Exec Director of the Berkeley Program in Soviet/Post-Soviet Affairs, Adj Assoc Prof Political Science.
Reposted by Edward Walker
This would be great but it’s kinda funny that Germany would still have a small total force + reserve than Finland (wartime strength 280,000 and total reserve about 900,000)
www.ft.com/content/6cbf...
www.ft.com/content/6cbf...
November 13, 2025 at 9:50 PM
This would be great but it’s kinda funny that Germany would still have a small total force + reserve than Finland (wartime strength 280,000 and total reserve about 900,000)
www.ft.com/content/6cbf...
www.ft.com/content/6cbf...
Reposted by Edward Walker
FT report: Russia’s Rubikon unit is upending Ukraine’s drone advantage — locating & killing operators deep behind the lines, training other Russian teams, & seizing control of Ukraine's decisive "electromagnetic spectrum." Ukrainian pilots now face relentless pressure, must adapt tactics to survive.
The elite Russian unit hunting Ukraine’s drone warriors
Moscow’s new Rubikon team upends Kyiv’s control of the electronic battlefield
www.ft.com
November 13, 2025 at 10:49 PM
FT report: Russia’s Rubikon unit is upending Ukraine’s drone advantage — locating & killing operators deep behind the lines, training other Russian teams, & seizing control of Ukraine's decisive "electromagnetic spectrum." Ukrainian pilots now face relentless pressure, must adapt tactics to survive.
“One of the key indicators of how effective sanctions on RU’s commodity exports are is the discount… by late October it climbed back to around $11–12. It then rose sharply after the sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, reaching $19.40 as of November 10…”
Prices for Russian crude are falling, buyer countries are cutting imports, and the fate of Moscow’s sanctioned foreign assets remains uncertain. Meduza examines the impact of Trump’s sanctions on Russian oil so far.
meduza.io/en/feature/2...
meduza.io/en/feature/2...
Top buyers spooked and Lukoil in crisis: Russia feels the heat from Washington’s latest oil sanctions — Meduza
On October 22, the U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions against Russia’s largest oil exporters, Lukoil and Rosneft. Just over three weeks later, it’s clear that the restrictions are…
meduza.io
November 13, 2025 at 9:23 PM
“One of the key indicators of how effective sanctions on RU’s commodity exports are is the discount… by late October it climbed back to around $11–12. It then rose sharply after the sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, reaching $19.40 as of November 10…”
Reposted by Edward Walker
Ukraine hit by mega-corruption scandal.
“Operation Midas” may become a serious trial for the Ukrainian political elite, as corruption contours reminiscent of a decade ago are reappearing in the eyes of society.
www.kyivpost.com/post/64120
“Operation Midas” may become a serious trial for the Ukrainian political elite, as corruption contours reminiscent of a decade ago are reappearing in the eyes of society.
www.kyivpost.com/post/64120
Ukraine Hit by Mega-Corruption Scandal: 7 Suspects, 2 Fugitives, Ministers Under Fire
“Operation Midas” may become a serious trial for the Ukrainian political elite, as corruption contours reminiscent of a decade ago are reappearing in the eyes of society.
www.kyivpost.com
November 12, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Ukraine hit by mega-corruption scandal.
“Operation Midas” may become a serious trial for the Ukrainian political elite, as corruption contours reminiscent of a decade ago are reappearing in the eyes of society.
www.kyivpost.com/post/64120
“Operation Midas” may become a serious trial for the Ukrainian political elite, as corruption contours reminiscent of a decade ago are reappearing in the eyes of society.
www.kyivpost.com/post/64120
Reposted by Edward Walker
A reminder about the Epstein discharge petition: If it gets 218 signatures in the House, that will force a vote on *legislation* mandating the release of the files.
That legislation is an ordinary bill, which means the Senate would have to pass it and Trump would have to sign it to take effect.
That legislation is an ordinary bill, which means the Senate would have to pass it and Trump would have to sign it to take effect.
November 12, 2025 at 5:47 PM
A reminder about the Epstein discharge petition: If it gets 218 signatures in the House, that will force a vote on *legislation* mandating the release of the files.
That legislation is an ordinary bill, which means the Senate would have to pass it and Trump would have to sign it to take effect.
That legislation is an ordinary bill, which means the Senate would have to pass it and Trump would have to sign it to take effect.
Hmmm. Don’t want to get irrationally exuberant but the dam may finally be breaking.
NEW: Jeffrey Epstein said in emails that he had been advising the Russian government on how to deal with Donald Trump, one of several cases in which he wielded his connections to try to influence the course of foreign affairs. w @nahaltoosi
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
November 12, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Hmmm. Don’t want to get irrationally exuberant but the dam may finally be breaking.
Interesting/informative but there are a number of small (or smallish) EUR states where that’s not happening (or at least it’s unclear/contested), notably some of the ones closer to RU (eg Moldova, Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, and esp Georgia). Will be interesting to see how Ireland goes on security.
November 12, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Interesting/informative but there are a number of small (or smallish) EUR states where that’s not happening (or at least it’s unclear/contested), notably some of the ones closer to RU (eg Moldova, Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, and esp Georgia). Will be interesting to see how Ireland goes on security.
Worrisome. NB: “According to … Deep State, over the month of October, 69% of all RU territorial gains were made in the area around Huliaipole and in eastern Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, despite the area hosting only 16% of RU’s total assault operations…”
Ever since spring 2024, when Russian forces pushed beyond the city of Avdiivka and began gaining momentum in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine’s defense of the front line has depended on a delicate balance — a very thin line between states of control and chaos.
Analysis: With all eyes on Pokrovsk, Russia drives forward in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
While Ukraine, Russia, and the world have been watching the dramatic final act of the Battle of Pokrovsk unfold, Russian gains in the eastern parts of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts — a secti...
kyivindependent.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Worrisome. NB: “According to … Deep State, over the month of October, 69% of all RU territorial gains were made in the area around Huliaipole and in eastern Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, despite the area hosting only 16% of RU’s total assault operations…”
Thread. NB: “Unlike oil (with ~8,000 tankers), the LNG fleet is limited to just ~800 vessels, making operations harder to conceal.”
❗️China is ramping up imports of Russian LNG from the **Arctic LNG 2** project, which is under U.S. sanctions, by building its own "shadow fleet" of tankers to bypass restrictions — Bloomberg.
November 12, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Thread. NB: “Unlike oil (with ~8,000 tankers), the LNG fleet is limited to just ~800 vessels, making operations harder to conceal.”
Reposted by Edward Walker
❗️🇩🇪German government wants to increase support for 🇺🇦Ukraine to more than 11.5 billion euros next year
Officials said the additional money would be earmarked for, among other things, artillery, drones and armored vehicles, as well as for replacing two Patriot air defense systems.
Officials said the additional money would be earmarked for, among other things, artillery, drones and armored vehicles, as well as for replacing two Patriot air defense systems.
November 11, 2025 at 10:59 AM
❗️🇩🇪German government wants to increase support for 🇺🇦Ukraine to more than 11.5 billion euros next year
Officials said the additional money would be earmarked for, among other things, artillery, drones and armored vehicles, as well as for replacing two Patriot air defense systems.
Officials said the additional money would be earmarked for, among other things, artillery, drones and armored vehicles, as well as for replacing two Patriot air defense systems.
Reposted by Edward Walker
⚡️Update: Russia has seized 3 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid 'fierce fighting,' Syrskyi says.
Russian forces have advanced their positions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, seizing three settlements in the region, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed on Nov. 11.
Russian forces have advanced their positions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, seizing three settlements in the region, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed on Nov. 11.
'The situation is quite difficult' — Ukraine pulls back from positions near 5 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that Russian troops have managed to seize "three settlements" amid "fierce fighting" in the region.
kyivindependent.com
November 11, 2025 at 8:13 PM
⚡️Update: Russia has seized 3 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid 'fierce fighting,' Syrskyi says.
Russian forces have advanced their positions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, seizing three settlements in the region, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed on Nov. 11.
Russian forces have advanced their positions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, seizing three settlements in the region, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed on Nov. 11.
Reposted by Edward Walker
❗️Brazil is gradually phasing out purchases of Russian diesel fuel: previously it accounted for about 60% of all diesel imported into the country, now — only 17%.
November 11, 2025 at 8:19 PM
❗️Brazil is gradually phasing out purchases of Russian diesel fuel: previously it accounted for about 60% of all diesel imported into the country, now — only 17%.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Five big Indian refiners haven't placed any orders for Russian oil for December due to the US sanctions, Bloomberg reported.
The refiners - Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and HPCL-Mittal Energy -
The refiners - Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and HPCL-Mittal Energy -
November 11, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Five big Indian refiners haven't placed any orders for Russian oil for December due to the US sanctions, Bloomberg reported.
The refiners - Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and HPCL-Mittal Energy -
The refiners - Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and HPCL-Mittal Energy -
Reposted by Edward Walker
Russia's latest budget figures (January–October) are out, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the budget deficit will be higher than expected. After 10 months, 80% of the budget has already been spent — compared to the normal rate of 74%.
November 11, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Russia's latest budget figures (January–October) are out, and it's becoming increasingly clear that the budget deficit will be higher than expected. After 10 months, 80% of the budget has already been spent — compared to the normal rate of 74%.
Reposted by Edward Walker
Reposted by Edward Walker
❗️Russian troops have crossed the border in the Kharkiv region, in the area of Bolohivka, – the founder of "KRAKEN" Nemichev stated that the Russians plan to "link up the groupings in Vovchansk and Dvorichna".
November 10, 2025 at 5:56 PM
❗️Russian troops have crossed the border in the Kharkiv region, in the area of Bolohivka, – the founder of "KRAKEN" Nemichev stated that the Russians plan to "link up the groupings in Vovchansk and Dvorichna".
Reposted by Edward Walker
According to Reuters, Iraq’s state oil authorities have frozen all cash and crude payments to Lukoil in compliance with U.S. and British sanctions imposed last month.
Lukoil Halts Iraqi Operations After Sanctions, Declares Force Majeure – Reuters - The Moscow Times
Lukoil has declared force majeure at a major oilfield in southern Iraq after Western sanctions disrupted its operations, Reuters reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.
www.themoscowtimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:08 PM
According to Reuters, Iraq’s state oil authorities have frozen all cash and crude payments to Lukoil in compliance with U.S. and British sanctions imposed last month.
Reposted by Edward Walker
PM Orban:
As long as he [President Trump] is president there and I am prime minister here, there will be no sanctions.
As long as he [President Trump] is president there and I am prime minister here, there will be no sanctions.
November 10, 2025 at 12:54 PM
PM Orban:
As long as he [President Trump] is president there and I am prime minister here, there will be no sanctions.
As long as he [President Trump] is president there and I am prime minister here, there will be no sanctions.
Reposted by Edward Walker
📍 Romania | With the United States of America announcing the withdrawal of its troops from Romania, France continues to build up its presence on Europe’s eastern flank, with the NATO multinational battalion in Romania, which is under its command, undergoing an upgrade to brigade level.
November 1, 2025 at 11:43 PM
📍 Romania | With the United States of America announcing the withdrawal of its troops from Romania, France continues to build up its presence on Europe’s eastern flank, with the NATO multinational battalion in Romania, which is under its command, undergoing an upgrade to brigade level.
Reposted by Edward Walker
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Nov. 9 he had nominated John Coale as the U.S. special envoy for Belarus, with the aim of securing the release of additional political prisoners held by the regime of Dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
November 9, 2025 at 5:18 PM
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Nov. 9 he had nominated John Coale as the U.S. special envoy for Belarus, with the aim of securing the release of additional political prisoners held by the regime of Dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
Reposted by Edward Walker
‼️ US government shutdown delays arms exports to Ukraine and NATO worth over US$5bn
US government shutdown delays arms exports to Ukraine and NATO worth over US$5bn, Axios says
The prolonged US government shutdown has delayed the export of US weapons worth more than US$5 billion intended to support NATO Allies and Ukraine.
www.pravda.com.ua
November 9, 2025 at 3:34 PM
‼️ US government shutdown delays arms exports to Ukraine and NATO worth over US$5bn
On “tit-for-tat” and UKR efforts to make RUs share the pain. NB: “It will not be enough just to damage RU oil refineries... That has had an an econ impact but might not be experienced as centrally by RUs… the UKRs are threatening to bring the war home to RUs, with a particular focus on Moscow.”
"What is [...] noteworthy is that [the Ukrainian attacks on Russian power grids] and the resulting blackouts are now being openly discussed in Ukraine as the symmetrical response to Russian attacks against Ukrainian power generation."
Hi All, Just released my latest free weekend update. No. 158--which amazingly enough comes out almost exactly three years after the first one. Its been quite a trip.
Today, the focus is on blackouts. Darkness is coming early to both Russia and Ukraine this winter. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Today, the focus is on blackouts. Darkness is coming early to both Russia and Ukraine this winter. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
November 9, 2025 at 12:51 PM
On “tit-for-tat” and UKR efforts to make RUs share the pain. NB: “It will not be enough just to damage RU oil refineries... That has had an an econ impact but might not be experienced as centrally by RUs… the UKRs are threatening to bring the war home to RUs, with a particular focus on Moscow.”
NB: “It is possible that Mehdiyev’s prosecution is being used to pin the entire rupture in Azerbaijan–Russia relations on a single man. In this version of the story, the government sacrifices a long-time loyalist to repair its image abroad while projecting strength at home.”
⭕ Opinion by Vafa Naghiyeva | How Azerbaijan’s pro-government media is shifting the security narrative.
oc-media.org/opinion-how-...
oc-media.org/opinion-how-...
Opinion | How Azerbaijan’s pro-government media is shifting the security narrative
The downfall of former Presidential Administration Head Ramiz Mehdiyev is the perfect example of authoritarian information control.
oc-media.org
November 9, 2025 at 12:39 PM
NB: “It is possible that Mehdiyev’s prosecution is being used to pin the entire rupture in Azerbaijan–Russia relations on a single man. In this version of the story, the government sacrifices a long-time loyalist to repair its image abroad while projecting strength at home.”
Reposted by Edward Walker
Russian strikes on substations forced Ukraine's Khmelnytskyi and Rivne nuclear plants to reduce output on November 8, the IAEA said, warning the situation is extremely unstable. Russia is now targeting Ukraine's nuclear sites, the Financial Times reported.
www.ft.com/content/474e...
www.ft.com/content/474e...
November 9, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Russian strikes on substations forced Ukraine's Khmelnytskyi and Rivne nuclear plants to reduce output on November 8, the IAEA said, warning the situation is extremely unstable. Russia is now targeting Ukraine's nuclear sites, the Financial Times reported.
www.ft.com/content/474e...
www.ft.com/content/474e...
Reposted by Edward Walker
#Kyiv tonight. Blackouts in most districts, the city is in darkness from the Russian strikes.
Emergency and planned power outages have been introduced. Many shops, pharmacies, institutions work from generators and other alternative energy sources
Emergency and planned power outages have been introduced. Many shops, pharmacies, institutions work from generators and other alternative energy sources
November 8, 2025 at 8:22 PM
#Kyiv tonight. Blackouts in most districts, the city is in darkness from the Russian strikes.
Emergency and planned power outages have been introduced. Many shops, pharmacies, institutions work from generators and other alternative energy sources
Emergency and planned power outages have been introduced. Many shops, pharmacies, institutions work from generators and other alternative energy sources