John Cranston
@jrcranston.bsky.social
Financial planning. Investment management…posts not financial advice.
📍 Boston
📍 Boston
Reposted by John Cranston
Because Trump has no idea how trade imbalances work or why they exist.
Trump launches trade war against China. Chinese exports soar. American exports collapse. This was not a smart thing for America to have done.
China’s Trade Surplus Climbs Past $1 Trillion for First Time
www.nytimes.com
December 8, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Because Trump has no idea how trade imbalances work or why they exist.
Reposted by John Cranston
GOLDMAN: “.. Since the Late 1990s, US Labor Productivity Has Grown More Than Twice as Fast as Other Advanced Economies” 🇺🇸
November 26, 2025 at 11:52 AM
GOLDMAN: “.. Since the Late 1990s, US Labor Productivity Has Grown More Than Twice as Fast as Other Advanced Economies” 🇺🇸
Reposted by John Cranston
GOLDMAN DESK: here’s a chart of current “‘drawdowns’ in AI stocks relative to the broader market ..
“.. a ~10% relative pullback .. similar .. to the DeepSeek pullback (Jan/Feb’24), but short of what we experienced in the Summer of 2024 .. and that of the Spring of 2025 (tariffs).”
“.. a ~10% relative pullback .. similar .. to the DeepSeek pullback (Jan/Feb’24), but short of what we experienced in the Summer of 2024 .. and that of the Spring of 2025 (tariffs).”
November 23, 2025 at 11:31 PM
GOLDMAN DESK: here’s a chart of current “‘drawdowns’ in AI stocks relative to the broader market ..
“.. a ~10% relative pullback .. similar .. to the DeepSeek pullback (Jan/Feb’24), but short of what we experienced in the Summer of 2024 .. and that of the Spring of 2025 (tariffs).”
“.. a ~10% relative pullback .. similar .. to the DeepSeek pullback (Jan/Feb’24), but short of what we experienced in the Summer of 2024 .. and that of the Spring of 2025 (tariffs).”
Reposted by John Cranston
NVDA beat. Stock is up 3%. Earth remains intact
If Nvidia doesn’t beat earnings expectations today the earth will explode.
November 19, 2025 at 9:25 PM
NVDA beat. Stock is up 3%. Earth remains intact
Reposted by John Cranston
“.. it just doesn’t make financial sense for us to offer discounts because our costs of goods are so high because of the tariffs ..”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 12, 2025 at 2:27 PM
“.. it just doesn’t make financial sense for us to offer discounts because our costs of goods are so high because of the tariffs ..”
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by John Cranston
November 8, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Reposted by John Cranston
Great turn of phrase from Brent Donnelly:
“AI is the procyclical scaffolding that holds up the k-shaped economy via the GDP boost from capex and the wealth effect”
“AI is the procyclical scaffolding that holds up the k-shaped economy via the GDP boost from capex and the wealth effect”
November 7, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Great turn of phrase from Brent Donnelly:
“AI is the procyclical scaffolding that holds up the k-shaped economy via the GDP boost from capex and the wealth effect”
“AI is the procyclical scaffolding that holds up the k-shaped economy via the GDP boost from capex and the wealth effect”
Reposted by John Cranston
Reposted by John Cranston
PMI surveys indicate elevated US price growth as tariffs drive inflation differential with rest of world
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
July 4, 2025 at 3:46 PM
PMI surveys indicate elevated US price growth as tariffs drive inflation differential with rest of world
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
www.spglobal.com/marketintell...
Reposted by John Cranston
Nominal wage growth for the bottom quartile is below late 2010’s levels while core inflation and interest rates are higher — it’s probably the worst time for that cohort since at least the early 2010’s:
October 19, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Nominal wage growth for the bottom quartile is below late 2010’s levels while core inflation and interest rates are higher — it’s probably the worst time for that cohort since at least the early 2010’s:
Reposted by John Cranston
It’s regional banks, homebuilders, the labor market, and 10-year yields vs the AI bulls and reacceleration bros.
October 16, 2025 at 7:37 PM
It’s regional banks, homebuilders, the labor market, and 10-year yields vs the AI bulls and reacceleration bros.
Reposted by John Cranston
LOL the 3x Levered ETFs weren’t enough. Now we have 5x. 🤡
(via B of A)
(via B of A)
October 17, 2025 at 11:44 AM
LOL the 3x Levered ETFs weren’t enough. Now we have 5x. 🤡
(via B of A)
(via B of A)
Reposted by John Cranston
This isn't so much the textbook "Fed cutting rates and broad economy reaccelerating" small-cap revival dynamic.
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
October 15, 2025 at 12:51 PM
This isn't so much the textbook "Fed cutting rates and broad economy reaccelerating" small-cap revival dynamic.
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
Reposted by John Cranston
🔥The rush for gold and silver assets is HISTORIC:
Gold ETF ($GLD) call options volume (5-day moving average) has spiked to a record 900,000 contracts.
Silver ETF ($SLV) call options volume hit ~1,000,000, the highest since 2021.
Precious metals have never been this HOT.
Gold ETF ($GLD) call options volume (5-day moving average) has spiked to a record 900,000 contracts.
Silver ETF ($SLV) call options volume hit ~1,000,000, the highest since 2021.
Precious metals have never been this HOT.
October 15, 2025 at 3:30 PM
🔥The rush for gold and silver assets is HISTORIC:
Gold ETF ($GLD) call options volume (5-day moving average) has spiked to a record 900,000 contracts.
Silver ETF ($SLV) call options volume hit ~1,000,000, the highest since 2021.
Precious metals have never been this HOT.
Gold ETF ($GLD) call options volume (5-day moving average) has spiked to a record 900,000 contracts.
Silver ETF ($SLV) call options volume hit ~1,000,000, the highest since 2021.
Precious metals have never been this HOT.
Reposted by John Cranston
The gold price action at this point is simple: Asset managers, reserve managers and pension managers around the world have concluded the US has become less reliable, and they hold too many $. Given the dearth of alternatives, managers are slowly diversifying into gold. But the gold market is tiny.
October 8, 2025 at 2:59 PM
The gold price action at this point is simple: Asset managers, reserve managers and pension managers around the world have concluded the US has become less reliable, and they hold too many $. Given the dearth of alternatives, managers are slowly diversifying into gold. But the gold market is tiny.
Reposted by John Cranston
A lot of tariff pain in the ISM commentary:
October 1, 2025 at 2:04 PM
A lot of tariff pain in the ISM commentary:
Reposted by John Cranston
Todays data suggest the labor market is cooling pretty rapidly despite low layoffs and unemployment. The hiring rate hit a new cycle low alongside a decline in quits suggesting it is weak demand rather than limited supply and consumers are reporting a lack of job opportunities
September 30, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Todays data suggest the labor market is cooling pretty rapidly despite low layoffs and unemployment. The hiring rate hit a new cycle low alongside a decline in quits suggesting it is weak demand rather than limited supply and consumers are reporting a lack of job opportunities
Reposted by John Cranston
Construction job openings dropped sharply in August, falling to the lowest level since 2017, even lower than during Covid.
Note: Industry-level JOLTS data is very volatile month-to-month, but construction job openings are clearly sharply lower than their late-2023 peak.
5/
Note: Industry-level JOLTS data is very volatile month-to-month, but construction job openings are clearly sharply lower than their late-2023 peak.
5/
September 30, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Construction job openings dropped sharply in August, falling to the lowest level since 2017, even lower than during Covid.
Note: Industry-level JOLTS data is very volatile month-to-month, but construction job openings are clearly sharply lower than their late-2023 peak.
5/
Note: Industry-level JOLTS data is very volatile month-to-month, but construction job openings are clearly sharply lower than their late-2023 peak.
5/
Reposted by John Cranston
Wall Street is having a mild AI-nxiety attack.
The simmering unease about a possible AI bubble began boiling over last week.
A proper warning of an undisciplined capital-burning binge or a helpful dose of caution to refresh the rational exuberance?
New column.
www.cnbc.com/2025/09/27/s...
The simmering unease about a possible AI bubble began boiling over last week.
A proper warning of an undisciplined capital-burning binge or a helpful dose of caution to refresh the rational exuberance?
New column.
www.cnbc.com/2025/09/27/s...
How to know when it's time to worry about the AI bubble
Wall Street is undergoing a minor AI-nxiety attack.
www.cnbc.com
September 27, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Wall Street is having a mild AI-nxiety attack.
The simmering unease about a possible AI bubble began boiling over last week.
A proper warning of an undisciplined capital-burning binge or a helpful dose of caution to refresh the rational exuberance?
New column.
www.cnbc.com/2025/09/27/s...
The simmering unease about a possible AI bubble began boiling over last week.
A proper warning of an undisciplined capital-burning binge or a helpful dose of caution to refresh the rational exuberance?
New column.
www.cnbc.com/2025/09/27/s...
Reposted by John Cranston
Remember no government stat releases if a shutdown comes.
JOLTS on Tues will be our last data, and with no employment report, ADP on Wed will be the benchmark report for September.
JOLTS on Tues will be our last data, and with no employment report, ADP on Wed will be the benchmark report for September.
September 26, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Remember no government stat releases if a shutdown comes.
JOLTS on Tues will be our last data, and with no employment report, ADP on Wed will be the benchmark report for September.
JOLTS on Tues will be our last data, and with no employment report, ADP on Wed will be the benchmark report for September.
Reposted by John Cranston
This chart captures the US econ debate really well -- spending on structures and residential investment is down YoY, which typically means recession, but spending growth on tech equipment is booming at the fastest pace since the late '90s:
September 26, 2025 at 12:40 PM
This chart captures the US econ debate really well -- spending on structures and residential investment is down YoY, which typically means recession, but spending growth on tech equipment is booming at the fastest pace since the late '90s:
Reposted by John Cranston
Stock price action this year, relative to historical seasonality, has been wild.
@yardeniresearch.bsky.social
@yardeniresearch.bsky.social
September 24, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Stock price action this year, relative to historical seasonality, has been wild.
@yardeniresearch.bsky.social
@yardeniresearch.bsky.social
Reposted by John Cranston
“.. The US shale business is broken,” one of those respondents was quoted as saying. “What was once the world’s most dynamic energy engine has been gutted by political hostility and economic ignorance.”
@bloomberg.com #OOTT
@bobburgess.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com #OOTT
@bobburgess.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
September 24, 2025 at 5:09 PM
“.. The US shale business is broken,” one of those respondents was quoted as saying. “What was once the world’s most dynamic energy engine has been gutted by political hostility and economic ignorance.”
@bloomberg.com #OOTT
@bobburgess.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
@bloomberg.com #OOTT
@bobburgess.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by John Cranston
Reposted by John Cranston
Oh. A carve out for Peter Thiel. And the other friends of Trump.
The H1-B visa thing is, like everything else in the Trump administration, set up to carve up exceptions for friends and punish enemies. It’s the authoritarian thru-line that stitches everything together.
September 20, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Oh. A carve out for Peter Thiel. And the other friends of Trump.