Michael Santoli
@michaelsantoli.bsky.social
CNBC talking head. Markets, mostly. Maybe some baseball and movies.
My (almost) daily market observations at the close for CNBC Pro...
Santoli's Monday market wrap-up: Relief over expected reopening of the government expressed oddly
Santoli's Monday market wrap-up: Relief over expected reopening of the government expressed oddly
The leadership in the rebound from last week's downside chop was a mix of the usual mega-cap leaders, AI food-chain, momentum- and the usual "story" stocks.
cnb.cx
November 10, 2025 at 9:28 PM
My (almost) daily market observations at the close for CNBC Pro...
Reposted by Michael Santoli
Such a treat to join Jeff DeGraaf and his Renaissance Macro team for their Off-Script podcast.
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
urldefense.com
November 1, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Such a treat to join Jeff DeGraaf and his Renaissance Macro team for their Off-Script podcast.
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
Everyone knows the deal: Good years for stocks tend to end strong. The market's pricey but this tends not to bite when profits are rising and the Fed cutting rates.
Still, it's an uneven rally and very few in history have gone much longer or stronger without a proper gut check.
Weekend column.
Still, it's an uneven rally and very few in history have gone much longer or stronger without a proper gut check.
Weekend column.
Lock in the gain? S&P 500 enters final two months of the year up 16%
After one of the best seven-month rallies in memory, how does the risk-reward tradeoff look?
www.cnbc.com
November 2, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Everyone knows the deal: Good years for stocks tend to end strong. The market's pricey but this tends not to bite when profits are rising and the Fed cutting rates.
Still, it's an uneven rally and very few in history have gone much longer or stronger without a proper gut check.
Weekend column.
Still, it's an uneven rally and very few in history have gone much longer or stronger without a proper gut check.
Weekend column.
Such a treat to join Jeff DeGraaf and his Renaissance Macro team for their Off-Script podcast.
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
urldefense.com
November 1, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Such a treat to join Jeff DeGraaf and his Renaissance Macro team for their Off-Script podcast.
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
We hit stocks, macro, credit, Fed, memories of days gone by at Barron’s and why markets thrive on “just the right amount of wrong.”
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
As a rewarding year for markets pivots from the season of feigned fright to a month of thanksgiving, a look at the risk-reward setup from here.
History says let it ride, wary investors ponder locking it in as 3-yr S&P 500 returns sit among the best ever.
New column, free to read with email signup.
History says let it ride, wary investors ponder locking it in as 3-yr S&P 500 returns sit among the best ever.
New column, free to read with email signup.
Lock in the gain? S&P 500 enters final two months of the year up 16%
After one of the best seven-month rallies in memory, how does the risk-reward tradeoff look?
www.cnbc.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:57 PM
As a rewarding year for markets pivots from the season of feigned fright to a month of thanksgiving, a look at the risk-reward setup from here.
History says let it ride, wary investors ponder locking it in as 3-yr S&P 500 returns sit among the best ever.
New column, free to read with email signup.
History says let it ride, wary investors ponder locking it in as 3-yr S&P 500 returns sit among the best ever.
New column, free to read with email signup.
Even the companies can't know or say for sure how many of the layoffs are due to AI.
We're just in a mode where corporate managers are going after past over-hiring, padding margins, navigating big tech-spending commitments and conveying to investors they are forward-thinking and efficiency-minded.
We're just in a mode where corporate managers are going after past over-hiring, padding margins, navigating big tech-spending commitments and conveying to investors they are forward-thinking and efficiency-minded.
From Amazon to Target, the country’s largest employers are retrenching, laying off tens of thousands of office workers.
Tens of Thousands of White-Collar Jobs Are Disappearing as AI Starts to Bite
Companies ranging from Amazon to Target are sending workers into an unwelcoming market.
on.wsj.com
October 29, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Even the companies can't know or say for sure how many of the layoffs are due to AI.
We're just in a mode where corporate managers are going after past over-hiring, padding margins, navigating big tech-spending commitments and conveying to investors they are forward-thinking and efficiency-minded.
We're just in a mode where corporate managers are going after past over-hiring, padding margins, navigating big tech-spending commitments and conveying to investors they are forward-thinking and efficiency-minded.
My standard spoilsport take on this: A company's market cap in real time is an inherently imprecise abstraction. Apple has been buying back about 100m of its shares per quarter so we'll probably find out from its earnings report on Thursday that it didn't hit $4T when it seems it did.
October 28, 2025 at 1:55 PM
My standard spoilsport take on this: A company's market cap in real time is an inherently imprecise abstraction. Apple has been buying back about 100m of its shares per quarter so we'll probably find out from its earnings report on Thursday that it didn't hit $4T when it seems it did.
Street pegs prediction-market volumes +91% in October from last month driven by sports contracts, the NBA in particular. Piper Sandler figures 30% of Kalshi activity is coming via clients of Robinhood, a firm that's enthusiastically blurring zero-sum betting with positive-sum investing activities.
October 28, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Street pegs prediction-market volumes +91% in October from last month driven by sports contracts, the NBA in particular. Piper Sandler figures 30% of Kalshi activity is coming via clients of Robinhood, a firm that's enthusiastically blurring zero-sum betting with positive-sum investing activities.
Look familiar?
From my friend Jonathan Mahler’s smart new political/cultural history of late-‘80s NYC, “Gods of New York,” real-estate interests panicking in advance of the 1989 Democratic primary, in which David Dinkins ultimately beat Ed Koch on his way to becoming the city’s first Black mayor…
From my friend Jonathan Mahler’s smart new political/cultural history of late-‘80s NYC, “Gods of New York,” real-estate interests panicking in advance of the 1989 Democratic primary, in which David Dinkins ultimately beat Ed Koch on his way to becoming the city’s first Black mayor…
October 28, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Look familiar?
From my friend Jonathan Mahler’s smart new political/cultural history of late-‘80s NYC, “Gods of New York,” real-estate interests panicking in advance of the 1989 Democratic primary, in which David Dinkins ultimately beat Ed Koch on his way to becoming the city’s first Black mayor…
From my friend Jonathan Mahler’s smart new political/cultural history of late-‘80s NYC, “Gods of New York,” real-estate interests panicking in advance of the 1989 Democratic primary, in which David Dinkins ultimately beat Ed Koch on his way to becoming the city’s first Black mayor…
Questions for investors with stocks back at a record: Was a two-week pause enough to refresh the rally? Was enough froth skimmed from speculative momentum stocks? Can no news remain good news without government data, or is a stealth “growth scare” brewing?
Weekend column, free with email signup.
Weekend column, free with email signup.
Elite bull market takes control again with the S&P 500 touching 6,800 for first time ever
The phase of the current bull market that pushed off the blocks six months ago is proving elite at refreshing itself with the briefest of respites.
www.cnbc.com
October 26, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Questions for investors with stocks back at a record: Was a two-week pause enough to refresh the rally? Was enough froth skimmed from speculative momentum stocks? Can no news remain good news without government data, or is a stealth “growth scare” brewing?
Weekend column, free with email signup.
Weekend column, free with email signup.
The best runners go faster, have a smoother gait and need less recovery time. Was a two-week pause enough to refresh a tenacious and at times overheated bull market?
New column details the setup into what everyone knows is (usually) the best time of year for stocks. (Free to read w/ email signup.)
New column details the setup into what everyone knows is (usually) the best time of year for stocks. (Free to read w/ email signup.)
Elite bull market takes control again with the S&P 500 touching 6,800 for first time ever
The phase of the current bull market that pushed off the blocks six months ago is proving elite at refreshing itself with the briefest of respites.
www.cnbc.com
October 25, 2025 at 1:05 PM
The best runners go faster, have a smoother gait and need less recovery time. Was a two-week pause enough to refresh a tenacious and at times overheated bull market?
New column details the setup into what everyone knows is (usually) the best time of year for stocks. (Free to read w/ email signup.)
New column details the setup into what everyone knows is (usually) the best time of year for stocks. (Free to read w/ email signup.)
Some chatter this morning about how today's date historically has been the single most profitable day for stocks for 3-month forwards.
Of course, almost three months ago we hit the single worst date to buy, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 5% since.
Seasonal patterns are climate, not weather...
Of course, almost three months ago we hit the single worst date to buy, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 5% since.
Seasonal patterns are climate, not weather...
October 23, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Some chatter this morning about how today's date historically has been the single most profitable day for stocks for 3-month forwards.
Of course, almost three months ago we hit the single worst date to buy, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 5% since.
Seasonal patterns are climate, not weather...
Of course, almost three months ago we hit the single worst date to buy, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 5% since.
Seasonal patterns are climate, not weather...
JP Morgan's downgrade of Goldman Sachs (by a London-based analyst) serves as a kind of shadow downgrade of JPM itself based on the rationale behind the call.
For comparison, JPM trades at 13.3x 2027 forecast earnings and 2.8x tangible book value.
For comparison, JPM trades at 13.3x 2027 forecast earnings and 2.8x tangible book value.
October 21, 2025 at 11:53 AM
JP Morgan's downgrade of Goldman Sachs (by a London-based analyst) serves as a kind of shadow downgrade of JPM itself based on the rationale behind the call.
For comparison, JPM trades at 13.3x 2027 forecast earnings and 2.8x tangible book value.
For comparison, JPM trades at 13.3x 2027 forecast earnings and 2.8x tangible book value.
Reposted by Michael Santoli
Credit hiccups, trade frictions and erratic action in junky speculative stocks were excuses for a calm rally to break stride ten days ago.
What now, after a modest pullback and an indecisive choppy week, as corporate results rush into a void of government data?
Column sets up the week ahead.
What now, after a modest pullback and an indecisive choppy week, as corporate results rush into a void of government data?
Column sets up the week ahead.
Bank worries, China trade feud unnerves stock market. Typical October volatility or something bigger?
How are we enjoying the "normal seasonal soft patch" so far?
www.cnbc.com
October 19, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Credit hiccups, trade frictions and erratic action in junky speculative stocks were excuses for a calm rally to break stride ten days ago.
What now, after a modest pullback and an indecisive choppy week, as corporate results rush into a void of government data?
Column sets up the week ahead.
What now, after a modest pullback and an indecisive choppy week, as corporate results rush into a void of government data?
Column sets up the week ahead.
Credit hiccups, trade frictions and erratic action in junky speculative stocks were excuses for a calm rally to break stride ten days ago.
What now, after a modest pullback and an indecisive choppy week, as corporate results rush into a void of government data?
Column sets up the week ahead.
What now, after a modest pullback and an indecisive choppy week, as corporate results rush into a void of government data?
Column sets up the week ahead.
Bank worries, China trade feud unnerves stock market. Typical October volatility or something bigger?
How are we enjoying the "normal seasonal soft patch" so far?
www.cnbc.com
October 19, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Credit hiccups, trade frictions and erratic action in junky speculative stocks were excuses for a calm rally to break stride ten days ago.
What now, after a modest pullback and an indecisive choppy week, as corporate results rush into a void of government data?
Column sets up the week ahead.
What now, after a modest pullback and an indecisive choppy week, as corporate results rush into a void of government data?
Column sets up the week ahead.
A fairly strong week for the market which nonetheless felt like a struggle after a long, calm climb.
Wall Street confronted ghosts of crises past: regional-bank credit jitters, US-China trade static, a purge in speculative froth.
Just a “normal seasonal pause” or something more?
New column.
Wall Street confronted ghosts of crises past: regional-bank credit jitters, US-China trade static, a purge in speculative froth.
Just a “normal seasonal pause” or something more?
New column.
Bank worries, China trade feud unnerves stock market. Typical October volatility or something bigger?
How are we enjoying the "normal seasonal soft patch" so far?
www.cnbc.com
October 18, 2025 at 7:47 PM
A fairly strong week for the market which nonetheless felt like a struggle after a long, calm climb.
Wall Street confronted ghosts of crises past: regional-bank credit jitters, US-China trade static, a purge in speculative froth.
Just a “normal seasonal pause” or something more?
New column.
Wall Street confronted ghosts of crises past: regional-bank credit jitters, US-China trade static, a purge in speculative froth.
Just a “normal seasonal pause” or something more?
New column.
Gold and stocks have been moving inversely all day.
With equities, bond yields, the dollar, oil and bitcoin under pressure the past week, gold's unhinged surge came to be seen as an unwelcome anomaly and reflective of erratic flows, rather than just part of an "everything rally."
With equities, bond yields, the dollar, oil and bitcoin under pressure the past week, gold's unhinged surge came to be seen as an unwelcome anomaly and reflective of erratic flows, rather than just part of an "everything rally."
October 17, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Gold and stocks have been moving inversely all day.
With equities, bond yields, the dollar, oil and bitcoin under pressure the past week, gold's unhinged surge came to be seen as an unwelcome anomaly and reflective of erratic flows, rather than just part of an "everything rally."
With equities, bond yields, the dollar, oil and bitcoin under pressure the past week, gold's unhinged surge came to be seen as an unwelcome anomaly and reflective of erratic flows, rather than just part of an "everything rally."
Jamie Dimon says you never see just one, but then I doubt he takes the subway.
October 17, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Jamie Dimon says you never see just one, but then I doubt he takes the subway.
Sellers sleeping late this week, waiting for the reflex morning rally to engage. Third straight intraday wobble.
Bitcoin heavy, wild spec stuff off the boil, S&P 500 spending the entire week within Friday's range as traders sort out whether it opened the way for more chop. VIX >21, wary action.
Bitcoin heavy, wild spec stuff off the boil, S&P 500 spending the entire week within Friday's range as traders sort out whether it opened the way for more chop. VIX >21, wary action.
October 16, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Sellers sleeping late this week, waiting for the reflex morning rally to engage. Third straight intraday wobble.
Bitcoin heavy, wild spec stuff off the boil, S&P 500 spending the entire week within Friday's range as traders sort out whether it opened the way for more chop. VIX >21, wary action.
Bitcoin heavy, wild spec stuff off the boil, S&P 500 spending the entire week within Friday's range as traders sort out whether it opened the way for more chop. VIX >21, wary action.
Plenty of excitement in the morning run of market analysis about the apparent breakout in the small-cap Russell 2000 relative to S&P 500. The charts don't lie, but they don't tell you why...
October 15, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Plenty of excitement in the morning run of market analysis about the apparent breakout in the small-cap Russell 2000 relative to S&P 500. The charts don't lie, but they don't tell you why...
Not to impose logic where there isn't much of it, but one could tell a story about the rolling hot-money speculative waves as crypto lottery winners with windfall paper profits grabbing for other assets that would hedge a "crypto failure" moment. Quantum (could crack crypto encryption), gold/silver.
October 14, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Not to impose logic where there isn't much of it, but one could tell a story about the rolling hot-money speculative waves as crypto lottery winners with windfall paper profits grabbing for other assets that would hedge a "crypto failure" moment. Quantum (could crack crypto encryption), gold/silver.
The geographic sample in Piper Sandler's teen-spending survey seems built to capture trends on a lagging basis...
October 9, 2025 at 12:00 PM
The geographic sample in Piper Sandler's teen-spending survey seems built to capture trends on a lagging basis...
This phase of the market advance has been led by higher-volatility, lower-quality stocks. Here's the S&P 500 quality-factor ETF relative to the broad S&P 500, back to a 10-year relative-performance low.
October 6, 2025 at 7:46 PM
This phase of the market advance has been led by higher-volatility, lower-quality stocks. Here's the S&P 500 quality-factor ETF relative to the broad S&P 500, back to a 10-year relative-performance low.
Never forget...
October 6, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Never forget...
Reposted by Michael Santoli
The bid abides.
That’s the central reality for stocks, the market bypassing plenty of excuses to falter in an often-bumpy time of year, anchoring to an entrenched story: The Fed is cutting rates into an economy supported by a huge tech capex boom and affluent-consumer spending...
That’s the central reality for stocks, the market bypassing plenty of excuses to falter in an often-bumpy time of year, anchoring to an entrenched story: The Fed is cutting rates into an economy supported by a huge tech capex boom and affluent-consumer spending...
October 5, 2025 at 2:46 PM
The bid abides.
That’s the central reality for stocks, the market bypassing plenty of excuses to falter in an often-bumpy time of year, anchoring to an entrenched story: The Fed is cutting rates into an economy supported by a huge tech capex boom and affluent-consumer spending...
That’s the central reality for stocks, the market bypassing plenty of excuses to falter in an often-bumpy time of year, anchoring to an entrenched story: The Fed is cutting rates into an economy supported by a huge tech capex boom and affluent-consumer spending...