Michael Santoli
@michaelsantoli.bsky.social
CNBC talking head. Markets, mostly. Maybe some baseball and movies.
A small thing, but the keepers of the Dow Jones Industrial Average must be hoping/begging Goldman Sachs will split its stock. Near $1,000/share, has a slightly smaller market cap than Coca-Cola yet has 14x the impact on DJIA due to its archaic price-weighting scheme. GS = 40% of the DJIA gain today.
January 5, 2026 at 3:25 PM
A small thing, but the keepers of the Dow Jones Industrial Average must be hoping/begging Goldman Sachs will split its stock. Near $1,000/share, has a slightly smaller market cap than Coca-Cola yet has 14x the impact on DJIA due to its archaic price-weighting scheme. GS = 40% of the DJIA gain today.
Venezuela doesn't rank among the core issues for the stock market, outside of some cynical/opportnistic moves in the energy sector.
Key questions: Is the market's message of a coming economic pickup reliable? Has Big Tech been resting or stalling? Why no worry over elevated valuations?
New column.
Key questions: Is the market's message of a coming economic pickup reliable? Has Big Tech been resting or stalling? Why no worry over elevated valuations?
New column.
Venezuela turmoil, Mag 7 struggles: Maturing bull market faces some early tests to begin 2026
Bull markets are almost never cut short by geopolitical flareups, writes Mike Santoli.
www.cnbc.com
January 5, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Venezuela doesn't rank among the core issues for the stock market, outside of some cynical/opportnistic moves in the energy sector.
Key questions: Is the market's message of a coming economic pickup reliable? Has Big Tech been resting or stalling? Why no worry over elevated valuations?
New column.
Key questions: Is the market's message of a coming economic pickup reliable? Has Big Tech been resting or stalling? Why no worry over elevated valuations?
New column.
As we just teased on the air, the identity of the #MysteryBroker will be revealed tomorrow when he joins me on CNBC's Closing Bell at 3pm Eastern. He'll be offering a fairly provocative market outlook as well.
Here's some background on this source, whom I've quoted since 2009.
Here's some background on this source, whom I've quoted since 2009.
The story behind the savvy 'Mystery Broker' and where he sees the market going now
The history of the canny and clear-thinking financial advisor who has come to be known in print and on Twitter as the Mystery Broker.
www.cnbc.com
December 29, 2025 at 9:13 PM
As we just teased on the air, the identity of the #MysteryBroker will be revealed tomorrow when he joins me on CNBC's Closing Bell at 3pm Eastern. He'll be offering a fairly provocative market outlook as well.
Here's some background on this source, whom I've quoted since 2009.
Here's some background on this source, whom I've quoted since 2009.
The market’s benign churn has left a sort of bland baseline bullishness for 2026 intact.
A few questions on possible swing factors:
Would a “broader” market truly be better?
Can huge onrushing demand for AI capital be met?
Is bitcoin now “normie” money with less speculative juice?
New column.
A few questions on possible swing factors:
Would a “broader” market truly be better?
Can huge onrushing demand for AI capital be met?
Is bitcoin now “normie” money with less speculative juice?
New column.
S&P 500 coasts to a third year of superior returns. Three key questions for Wall Street entering 2026
While the swing factors are inherently unpredictable, there seem a few broad questions hovering over the market as 2025 slips into the past.
www.cnbc.com
December 20, 2025 at 2:53 PM
The market’s benign churn has left a sort of bland baseline bullishness for 2026 intact.
A few questions on possible swing factors:
Would a “broader” market truly be better?
Can huge onrushing demand for AI capital be met?
Is bitcoin now “normie” money with less speculative juice?
New column.
A few questions on possible swing factors:
Would a “broader” market truly be better?
Can huge onrushing demand for AI capital be met?
Is bitcoin now “normie” money with less speculative juice?
New column.
The industry aims to build a superintelligence by assimilating unthinkable volumes of data dating to the dawn of the written word, yet apparently tweaking the models to account for separate regulations across several states is a level of complexity that would paralyze the whole project...
The president signed an executive order aimed to crimp state AI laws.
https://sherwood.news/tech/trump-ai-executive-order-is-a-major-win-for-open-ai-google-microsoft-and/
https://sherwood.news/tech/trump-ai-executive-order-is-a-major-win-for-open-ai-google-microsoft-and/
Trump AI executive order is a “major win” for Open AI, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, says Ives
The president signed an executive order aimed to crimp state AI laws....
sherwood.news
December 12, 2025 at 2:53 PM
The industry aims to build a superintelligence by assimilating unthinkable volumes of data dating to the dawn of the written word, yet apparently tweaking the models to account for separate regulations across several states is a level of complexity that would paralyze the whole project...
A high-torque rotation into economically sensitive stocks post-Fed offseting another wobble in the AI theme.
The market's been pressing its bets on a reacceleration into 2026, as “run-it-hot” policies kick in. (It tried this a year ago too).
Is the stampede into value looking a bit panicky yet?
The market's been pressing its bets on a reacceleration into 2026, as “run-it-hot” policies kick in. (It tried this a year ago too).
Is the stampede into value looking a bit panicky yet?
December 11, 2025 at 8:01 PM
A high-torque rotation into economically sensitive stocks post-Fed offseting another wobble in the AI theme.
The market's been pressing its bets on a reacceleration into 2026, as “run-it-hot” policies kick in. (It tried this a year ago too).
Is the stampede into value looking a bit panicky yet?
The market's been pressing its bets on a reacceleration into 2026, as “run-it-hot” policies kick in. (It tried this a year ago too).
Is the stampede into value looking a bit panicky yet?
Stocks rise above their record closing high, set Oct. 28, the day before the prior Fed meeting.
The tension release pushes market-implied volatiltiy down to levels likewise seen in late October.
This is how it goes when the market clenches up for a "hawkish cut" that turns out not so hawkish...
The tension release pushes market-implied volatiltiy down to levels likewise seen in late October.
This is how it goes when the market clenches up for a "hawkish cut" that turns out not so hawkish...
December 10, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Stocks rise above their record closing high, set Oct. 28, the day before the prior Fed meeting.
The tension release pushes market-implied volatiltiy down to levels likewise seen in late October.
This is how it goes when the market clenches up for a "hawkish cut" that turns out not so hawkish...
The tension release pushes market-implied volatiltiy down to levels likewise seen in late October.
This is how it goes when the market clenches up for a "hawkish cut" that turns out not so hawkish...
Reposted by Michael Santoli
Santoli's Tuesday market wrap-up: Stocks remain on hold ahead of Fed meeting with a few interesting sector rotations
Santoli's Tuesday market wrap-up: Stocks remain on hold ahead of Fed meeting with a few interesting sector rotations
Stocks are largely on hold ahead of the Federal Reserve decision just below the old record highs, but there are some interesting wrinkles in sector rotations.
cnb.cx
December 9, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Santoli's Tuesday market wrap-up: Stocks remain on hold ahead of Fed meeting with a few interesting sector rotations
Noted on the air just now that the market has not quite completed a "V" bottom from the November pullback, the S&P 500 going sideways the past few days and creating more of a Van Halen logo pattern...
December 9, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Noted on the air just now that the market has not quite completed a "V" bottom from the November pullback, the S&P 500 going sideways the past few days and creating more of a Van Halen logo pattern...
The market‘s back in gear after a November wobble, last week’s gentle rise nearly completing its rebound. The tape is posiitoned for a Fed rate cut into a reaccelerating economy, with banks, transports, retailers leading.
Heathy shift or head fake? Is the Street too bullish on ‘26?
Weekend column.
Heathy shift or head fake? Is the Street too bullish on ‘26?
Weekend column.
S&P 500 quietly rebounds to near a new record. Where to next after a quick round trip?
A two-week, 5% rebound has just about returned the S&P 500 to its former all-time high set at the end of October.
www.cnbc.com
December 7, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The market‘s back in gear after a November wobble, last week’s gentle rise nearly completing its rebound. The tape is posiitoned for a Fed rate cut into a reaccelerating economy, with banks, transports, retailers leading.
Heathy shift or head fake? Is the Street too bullish on ‘26?
Weekend column.
Heathy shift or head fake? Is the Street too bullish on ‘26?
Weekend column.
There are quiet weeks on Wall Street but not meangless ones.
The S&P 500's rebound rally slowed, yet below the surface the market is emphatically executing an "early cycle" playbook to posiiton for a peppier economy and looser Fed.
Do investors have it right this time?
New column.
The S&P 500's rebound rally slowed, yet below the surface the market is emphatically executing an "early cycle" playbook to posiiton for a peppier economy and looser Fed.
Do investors have it right this time?
New column.
S&P 500 quietly rebounds to near a new record. Where to next after a quick round trip?
A two-week, 5% rebound has just about returned the S&P 500 to its former all-time high set at the end of October.
www.cnbc.com
December 6, 2025 at 3:16 PM
There are quiet weeks on Wall Street but not meangless ones.
The S&P 500's rebound rally slowed, yet below the surface the market is emphatically executing an "early cycle" playbook to posiiton for a peppier economy and looser Fed.
Do investors have it right this time?
New column.
The S&P 500's rebound rally slowed, yet below the surface the market is emphatically executing an "early cycle" playbook to posiiton for a peppier economy and looser Fed.
Do investors have it right this time?
New column.
The market setup for the week and the rest of the year.
(CNBC Pro column free to read with email registration.)
(CNBC Pro column free to read with email registration.)
Wall Street thinks you don‘t own enough stock. More so than usual, even.
It’s the season when business news slows, the Fed’s plan is priced in, and so the bulls’ story leans on “performance chase” logic. Works most years, didn’t in ‘24.
Did that 5% shakeout really recharge the market? New column.
It’s the season when business news slows, the Fed’s plan is priced in, and so the bulls’ story leans on “performance chase” logic. Works most years, didn’t in ‘24.
Did that 5% shakeout really recharge the market? New column.
December will begin with investors owning little stock. Is a year-end rally at play?
Wall Street thinks you don't own enough stock, writes CNBC's Mike Santoli.
cnb.cx
November 30, 2025 at 2:29 PM
The market setup for the week and the rest of the year.
(CNBC Pro column free to read with email registration.)
(CNBC Pro column free to read with email registration.)
Wall Street thinks you don‘t own enough stock. More so than usual, even.
It’s the season when business news slows, the Fed’s plan is priced in, and so the bulls’ story leans on “performance chase” logic. Works most years, didn’t in ‘24.
Did that 5% shakeout really recharge the market? New column.
It’s the season when business news slows, the Fed’s plan is priced in, and so the bulls’ story leans on “performance chase” logic. Works most years, didn’t in ‘24.
Did that 5% shakeout really recharge the market? New column.
December will begin with investors owning little stock. Is a year-end rally at play?
Wall Street thinks you don't own enough stock, writes CNBC's Mike Santoli.
cnb.cx
November 29, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Wall Street thinks you don‘t own enough stock. More so than usual, even.
It’s the season when business news slows, the Fed’s plan is priced in, and so the bulls’ story leans on “performance chase” logic. Works most years, didn’t in ‘24.
Did that 5% shakeout really recharge the market? New column.
It’s the season when business news slows, the Fed’s plan is priced in, and so the bulls’ story leans on “performance chase” logic. Works most years, didn’t in ‘24.
Did that 5% shakeout really recharge the market? New column.
Reposted by Michael Santoli
$SPX 60' RSI(5) = 95. Turkey might be getting a little overcooked. Similar in past 11-months highlighted.
November 26, 2025 at 3:50 PM
$SPX 60' RSI(5) = 95. Turkey might be getting a little overcooked. Similar in past 11-months highlighted.
Always fun when the mechanical upward drift of a pre-holiday market takes three wildly disparate indexes - with components ranging from 30 stocks to 3,900 - up the same amount...
November 26, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Always fun when the mechanical upward drift of a pre-holiday market takes three wildly disparate indexes - with components ranging from 30 stocks to 3,900 - up the same amount...
Reposted by Michael Santoli
Santoli's Monday market wrap-up: Buyers seize on some oversold conditions and pull the S&P 500 out of the hole
Santoli's Monday market wrap-up: Buyers seize on some oversold conditions and pull the S&P 500 out of the hole
The ascendant 'non-OpenAI AI' complex led by Broadcom and Alphabet, as well as sharp bounces in Meta and Palantir, helped drive the gain.
cnb.cx
November 24, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Santoli's Monday market wrap-up: Buyers seize on some oversold conditions and pull the S&P 500 out of the hole
Market setup for the week. Indexes tentatively bouncing off support after disgorging two months of gains, purging some froth, resetting sentiment.
Varuious long-building imbalances now in the open: K-shaped/AI-centric growth, crypto as chaos agent.
New CNBC column, free with email registration.
Varuious long-building imbalances now in the open: K-shaped/AI-centric growth, crypto as chaos agent.
New CNBC column, free with email registration.
Turbulent November market puts the onus back on the bulls to show resilience
Is the market in the process of building a better, more-balanced bull while humbling the hubristic momentum traders?
www.cnbc.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Market setup for the week. Indexes tentatively bouncing off support after disgorging two months of gains, purging some froth, resetting sentiment.
Varuious long-building imbalances now in the open: K-shaped/AI-centric growth, crypto as chaos agent.
New CNBC column, free with email registration.
Varuious long-building imbalances now in the open: K-shaped/AI-centric growth, crypto as chaos agent.
New CNBC column, free with email registration.
"We own these two stocks that attract the gullible and conspiracy-minded and were surprised to learn that many of those same investors have lots of exposure to bitcoin..."
November 21, 2025 at 6:37 PM
"We own these two stocks that attract the gullible and conspiracy-minded and were surprised to learn that many of those same investors have lots of exposure to bitcoin..."
The market trying to rotate away from the immediate blast radius of speculative junk, peripheral AI food-chain plays and crypto, with cyclical groups catching a bid after dipping into the red on a one-year basis.
Still plenty to prove as the macro/Fed interplay shifts around, but worth watching...
Still plenty to prove as the macro/Fed interplay shifts around, but worth watching...
November 21, 2025 at 5:45 PM
The market trying to rotate away from the immediate blast radius of speculative junk, peripheral AI food-chain plays and crypto, with cyclical groups catching a bid after dipping into the red on a one-year basis.
Still plenty to prove as the macro/Fed interplay shifts around, but worth watching...
Still plenty to prove as the macro/Fed interplay shifts around, but worth watching...
Stock indexes at their lows for the day.
Maybe things will settle down after the Bitcoin close....
Maybe things will settle down after the Bitcoin close....
November 20, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Stock indexes at their lows for the day.
Maybe things will settle down after the Bitcoin close....
Maybe things will settle down after the Bitcoin close....
A peppy, broad bounce at the open. 85% upside volume. Nvidia restores confidence in the AI-infrastructure food chain for now, though shares only back to a 10-day high.
Watching for potential friction overhead: A purely mechanical oversold index bounce often stalls near the 20-day moving average...
Watching for potential friction overhead: A purely mechanical oversold index bounce often stalls near the 20-day moving average...
November 20, 2025 at 2:57 PM
A peppy, broad bounce at the open. 85% upside volume. Nvidia restores confidence in the AI-infrastructure food chain for now, though shares only back to a 10-day high.
Watching for potential friction overhead: A purely mechanical oversold index bounce often stalls near the 20-day moving average...
Watching for potential friction overhead: A purely mechanical oversold index bounce often stalls near the 20-day moving average...
We're well beyond the "everybody wins" phase of rewarding all AI spenders and vendors alike.
Stock-price correlation of "hyperscalers" MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL collapsing as the market sorts winners vs. losers.
In particular, it seems investors are handing GOOGL the belt over MSFT (for now).
Stock-price correlation of "hyperscalers" MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL collapsing as the market sorts winners vs. losers.
In particular, it seems investors are handing GOOGL the belt over MSFT (for now).
November 19, 2025 at 4:33 PM
We're well beyond the "everybody wins" phase of rewarding all AI spenders and vendors alike.
Stock-price correlation of "hyperscalers" MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL collapsing as the market sorts winners vs. losers.
In particular, it seems investors are handing GOOGL the belt over MSFT (for now).
Stock-price correlation of "hyperscalers" MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL collapsing as the market sorts winners vs. losers.
In particular, it seems investors are handing GOOGL the belt over MSFT (for now).
Handicapping the reaction to Nvidia results across the market is both inevitable and futile.
What would've been a smart way to set up for its last report in August? Typical beat-and-raise released Aug. 27 with the stock hovering just below a record high....
What would've been a smart way to set up for its last report in August? Typical beat-and-raise released Aug. 27 with the stock hovering just below a record high....
November 19, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Handicapping the reaction to Nvidia results across the market is both inevitable and futile.
What would've been a smart way to set up for its last report in August? Typical beat-and-raise released Aug. 27 with the stock hovering just below a record high....
What would've been a smart way to set up for its last report in August? Typical beat-and-raise released Aug. 27 with the stock hovering just below a record high....
When stocks go down in price they go back in time. Nasdaq 100 returning to Sept. 18 levels, right after the Fed resumed rate cuts. Starting to become a proper reset.
Today's flush is a stampede out of AI/Mag7, breadth not bad, defensive sectors trying to hold, equal-weight S&P 500 barely down.
Today's flush is a stampede out of AI/Mag7, breadth not bad, defensive sectors trying to hold, equal-weight S&P 500 barely down.
November 18, 2025 at 3:04 PM
When stocks go down in price they go back in time. Nasdaq 100 returning to Sept. 18 levels, right after the Fed resumed rate cuts. Starting to become a proper reset.
Today's flush is a stampede out of AI/Mag7, breadth not bad, defensive sectors trying to hold, equal-weight S&P 500 barely down.
Today's flush is a stampede out of AI/Mag7, breadth not bad, defensive sectors trying to hold, equal-weight S&P 500 barely down.
Not to downplay the less-generous welcome today's new grads are getting from employers. But I'm adding a second chart as "When I was your age" ammo for fellow GenXers who have a kid graduating college in '26.
The original "jobless recovery" that got Clinton elected with "It's the economy, stupid."
The original "jobless recovery" that got Clinton elected with "It's the economy, stupid."
November 17, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Not to downplay the less-generous welcome today's new grads are getting from employers. But I'm adding a second chart as "When I was your age" ammo for fellow GenXers who have a kid graduating college in '26.
The original "jobless recovery" that got Clinton elected with "It's the economy, stupid."
The original "jobless recovery" that got Clinton elected with "It's the economy, stupid."