Urban Carmel
@ukarlewitz.bsky.social
Former: UBS Securities, Asia Ex-Pat, McKinsey, Mayor of Mill Valley, Finance Twitter. Fan of causal relationships, behavioral finance and the Quad Dipsea.
Pinned
Urban Carmel
@ukarlewitz.bsky.social
· Nov 13
1. There’s no PPT
2. The Fed has been hated for 110 years
3. High probabilities do not imply certainty
4. It can always be different this time
5. Things go up over time
6. We’re not all going to agree
2. The Fed has been hated for 110 years
3. High probabilities do not imply certainty
4. It can always be different this time
5. Things go up over time
6. We’re not all going to agree
Love this. Rallied 1% to close green.
November 7, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Love this. Rallied 1% to close green.
$SPY - a close < 666.6 would be the first 3% drawdown since April. At that point, it'll be just 0.4% above its 50-d. That's a rare, long streak. Source on chart
November 6, 2025 at 7:40 PM
$SPY - a close < 666.6 would be the first 3% drawdown since April. At that point, it'll be just 0.4% above its 50-d. That's a rare, long streak. Source on chart
After a +25% rally the past "worst" 6 months, $SPX has a 50/50 chance of going sideways the next "best" 6 months.
November 6, 2025 at 7:04 PM
After a +25% rally the past "worst" 6 months, $SPX has a 50/50 chance of going sideways the next "best" 6 months.
Six month win streaks haven’t marked important tops. Going back to 1950, each of the prior 23 instances has been followed by further gains in the months ahead. From Almanac Trader
November 3, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Six month win streaks haven’t marked important tops. Going back to 1950, each of the prior 23 instances has been followed by further gains in the months ahead. From Almanac Trader
$SPX on track for >10% return for a 3rd year in a row. Since 1930, n=9. Year 4 underperforms ‘anytime’ with a 4.4% gain a 44% win rate vs 8% gain and 69% win rate for all years. From Wayne Whaley
November 2, 2025 at 3:56 PM
$SPX on track for >10% return for a 3rd year in a row. Since 1930, n=9. Year 4 underperforms ‘anytime’ with a 4.4% gain a 44% win rate vs 8% gain and 69% win rate for all years. From Wayne Whaley
If a 20% 'bear market' is coming, $SPX will probably get choppy first. This chart shows drops >5%; the ones that are circled happened before the bear market started. The first >5% drop is almost always followed by a rebound to the prior high or even higher.
October 30, 2025 at 8:34 PM
If a 20% 'bear market' is coming, $SPX will probably get choppy first. This chart shows drops >5%; the ones that are circled happened before the bear market started. The first >5% drop is almost always followed by a rebound to the prior high or even higher.
It's been about 130 days since the last 5% drop in $SPX ended in April. That's a long time. In the past 40 years, it's gone longer only 5 times. Some of these have gone 300 days, so this could last into next year, but it's already in outlier territory
October 30, 2025 at 8:27 PM
It's been about 130 days since the last 5% drop in $SPX ended in April. That's a long time. In the past 40 years, it's gone longer only 5 times. Some of these have gone 300 days, so this could last into next year, but it's already in outlier territory
NAAIM (active managers) 101 this week, i.e., fully invested. This hasn't been an especially useful signal of even an upcoming 5% drop. Sentiment extremes work at lows; at tops, not so much. It was 99 in July and $SPX went up another 12% in a straight line
October 30, 2025 at 7:28 PM
NAAIM (active managers) 101 this week, i.e., fully invested. This hasn't been an especially useful signal of even an upcoming 5% drop. Sentiment extremes work at lows; at tops, not so much. It was 99 in July and $SPX went up another 12% in a straight line
Powell today: December cut 'not a foregone conclusion.' 3 days ago, December cut odds at 95% (i.e., a foregone conclusion).
🚨#Fed Chair #Powell press conference
"In the Committee's discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December.
A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a forgone conclusion. Far from it."
"In the Committee's discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December.
A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a forgone conclusion. Far from it."
October 29, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Powell today: December cut 'not a foregone conclusion.' 3 days ago, December cut odds at 95% (i.e., a foregone conclusion).
When $SPX TTM >10%, the period from now until Jan 7 is up 39 of 40 (98%) by avg 5.9%. The one loser was the 2007 start to the GFC. From Wayne Whaley
October 29, 2025 at 3:10 PM
When $SPX TTM >10%, the period from now until Jan 7 is up 39 of 40 (98%) by avg 5.9%. The one loser was the 2007 start to the GFC. From Wayne Whaley
$SPY rose 8% between 9/2 and 10/27, so it makes sense that the Santa Claus rally starts today. That's sarcasm btw
bsky.app/profile/carl...
bsky.app/profile/carl...
DEUTSCHE: Today marks the point that, on average, kicks off the “Santa Claus Rally” in the US.
$SPX
$SPX
October 28, 2025 at 5:11 PM
$SPY rose 8% between 9/2 and 10/27, so it makes sense that the Santa Claus rally starts today. That's sarcasm btw
bsky.app/profile/carl...
bsky.app/profile/carl...
A bubble with net outflows from equity MFs + ETFs and huge net inflows to bonds? ICI data
October 22, 2025 at 3:12 PM
A bubble with net outflows from equity MFs + ETFs and huge net inflows to bonds? ICI data
This might be the first week in the past 4-months (since mid-June) that SPX/SPY doesn't make at least one new ATH
October 16, 2025 at 12:59 PM
This might be the first week in the past 4-months (since mid-June) that SPX/SPY doesn't make at least one new ATH
The vaunted copper:gold ratio at the lowest level in more than 40 years, lower even than during the Covid collapse. Meanwhile, 10-yr yields near the highest in 17 years.
October 14, 2025 at 10:01 PM
The vaunted copper:gold ratio at the lowest level in more than 40 years, lower even than during the Covid collapse. Meanwhile, 10-yr yields near the highest in 17 years.
Assume it's either to enrich his family or distract you from the pedophile investigation and you'll be right 95% of the time
October 1, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Assume it's either to enrich his family or distract you from the pedophile investigation and you'll be right 95% of the time
Shutdown in 4 charts: SPX can get whacked during shutdown but it normally doesn't last
October 1, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Shutdown in 4 charts: SPX can get whacked during shutdown but it normally doesn't last
SPX up 5 months in a row. Higher a year later 94% of time. Doesn't mean smooth sailing: last time was exactly a year ago and SPX was lower 7 months later and was down 5 of the following 7 months. From @sentimentrader.bsky.social
October 1, 2025 at 1:11 PM
SPX up 5 months in a row. Higher a year later 94% of time. Doesn't mean smooth sailing: last time was exactly a year ago and SPX was lower 7 months later and was down 5 of the following 7 months. From @sentimentrader.bsky.social
The current period is being compared to 1999. It's not anywhere near that crazy. Maybe more like 1996-97. Here's one way they are not alike. The 1999 IPO was bonkers
September 29, 2025 at 3:17 PM
The current period is being compared to 1999. It's not anywhere near that crazy. Maybe more like 1996-97. Here's one way they are not alike. The 1999 IPO was bonkers
$NDX up 9 in a row. We're supposedly in the weakest month
SOX green 8 straight.
September 15, 2025 at 9:27 PM
$NDX up 9 in a row. We're supposedly in the weakest month
So far, Year 3 is up +16% and higher the last 5 months in a row.
September 12, 2025 at 5:51 PM
So far, Year 3 is up +16% and higher the last 5 months in a row.
They were max long in July 2024 and $SPX closed the year 10% higher with interim risk/reward 2:1 positive.
September 12, 2025 at 5:41 PM
They were max long in July 2024 and $SPX closed the year 10% higher with interim risk/reward 2:1 positive.
UE claims up at 263k this week. It's been up here a few times in the past 5 yrs and then turned lower, so what happens next seems to be make or break (LHS). Prior expansions, OTOH, never even got as low as this level, which makes it seem irrelevant (RHS)
September 11, 2025 at 1:46 PM
UE claims up at 263k this week. It's been up here a few times in the past 5 yrs and then turned lower, so what happens next seems to be make or break (LHS). Prior expansions, OTOH, never even got as low as this level, which makes it seem irrelevant (RHS)
An 88% win rate is significant
Since the 9/11/2001 attacks and tragedy, September 11th has been a very strong day for the market. See study below, which will be included in tonight's subscriber letter. $SPX $SPY
September 11, 2025 at 1:23 PM
An 88% win rate is significant
June NFP was -13k, the first negative jobs number since Dec. 2020
September 5, 2025 at 1:19 PM
June NFP was -13k, the first negative jobs number since Dec. 2020