Urban Carmel
@ukarlewitz.bsky.social
Former: UBS Securities, Asia Ex-Pat, McKinsey, Mayor of Mill Valley, Finance Twitter. Fan of causal relationships, behavioral finance and the Quad Dipsea.
Pinned
Urban Carmel
@ukarlewitz.bsky.social
· Nov 13
1. There’s no PPT
2. The Fed has been hated for 110 years
3. High probabilities do not imply certainty
4. It can always be different this time
5. Things go up over time
6. We’re not all going to agree
2. The Fed has been hated for 110 years
3. High probabilities do not imply certainty
4. It can always be different this time
5. Things go up over time
6. We’re not all going to agree
MarketWatch: greatest predictor of future stock market returns flashing a warning.
This "flashed a warning" in 2013: "at its current value, the metric suggests a future 10 year nominal total return for equities of around 6%."
It the next 10 years, #$SPX up over 200%
This "flashed a warning" in 2013: "at its current value, the metric suggests a future 10 year nominal total return for equities of around 6%."
It the next 10 years, #$SPX up over 200%
January 28, 2026 at 3:38 PM
MarketWatch: greatest predictor of future stock market returns flashing a warning.
This "flashed a warning" in 2013: "at its current value, the metric suggests a future 10 year nominal total return for equities of around 6%."
It the next 10 years, #$SPX up over 200%
This "flashed a warning" in 2013: "at its current value, the metric suggests a future 10 year nominal total return for equities of around 6%."
It the next 10 years, #$SPX up over 200%
Rule of 3 is not a thing. January up 7 years in a row in the 1990s. This is another example of the Gambler's Fallacy, the belief that random, independent events somehow "balance out".
January 28, 2026 at 2:28 PM
Rule of 3 is not a thing. January up 7 years in a row in the 1990s. This is another example of the Gambler's Fallacy, the belief that random, independent events somehow "balance out".
Everything Trump Touches Dies bsky.app/profile/gove...
I just spoke with the White House after another horrific shooting by federal agents this morning. Minnesota has had it. This is sickening.
The President must end this operation. Pull the thousands of violent, untrained officers out of Minnesota. Now.
The President must end this operation. Pull the thousands of violent, untrained officers out of Minnesota. Now.
January 24, 2026 at 6:43 PM
Everything Trump Touches Dies bsky.app/profile/gove...
II bull/bear ratio climbs to 3.9x. That's the highest since March 2024. Above 4x is nose bleed levels
January 21, 2026 at 8:44 PM
II bull/bear ratio climbs to 3.9x. That's the highest since March 2024. Above 4x is nose bleed levels
Using real time shelter, headline inflation 1.9%, core 1.6%. Jeremy has been all over this for sometime.
January 13, 2026 at 3:54 PM
Using real time shelter, headline inflation 1.9%, core 1.6%. Jeremy has been all over this for sometime.
Reposted by Urban Carmel
Jerome Powell: "This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation."
January 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM
Jerome Powell: "This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation."
Ryan is right: when the first 5 days of the year are up more than 1% (like now), the probability of an up FY with a strong gain is statistically significant relative to 'anytime'
January 8, 2026 at 10:31 PM
Ryan is right: when the first 5 days of the year are up more than 1% (like now), the probability of an up FY with a strong gain is statistically significant relative to 'anytime'
If you think the new high in the A/D line for $SPX signals the all clear, I have some bad news. 4 of the last 5 +20% corrections started when the A/D line was at a high.
January 7, 2026 at 10:41 PM
If you think the new high in the A/D line for $SPX signals the all clear, I have some bad news. 4 of the last 5 +20% corrections started when the A/D line was at a high.
XLE first new ATH since 2024 today
January 5, 2026 at 11:25 PM
XLE first new ATH since 2024 today
The SCR and all the "January Effect" indicators (where an up day/week/month predicts an up year) are all examples of the Base Rate Fallacy. $SPX has been up 76% of the last 46 years. These indicators don't matter, the odds of the year being up are statistically the same regardless (Mark Hulbert)
January 5, 2026 at 9:33 PM
The SCR and all the "January Effect" indicators (where an up day/week/month predicts an up year) are all examples of the Base Rate Fallacy. $SPX has been up 76% of the last 46 years. These indicators don't matter, the odds of the year being up are statistically the same regardless (Mark Hulbert)
Not every 5% drop leads to a bear market but every bear market has been preceded by a 5% drop. Here’s how the new year starts
bsky.app/profile/ukar...
bsky.app/profile/ukar...
This is from Oct 22 when SPY was still rising (it gained another 3% to its most recent ATH). With today's reversal, it's now had its first >5% drop, so, big picture, this pattern is in play
If a 20% 'bear market' is coming, $SPX will probably get choppy first. This chart shows drops >5%; the ones that are circled happened before the bear market started. The first >5% drop is almost always followed by a rebound to the prior high or even higher.
January 1, 2026 at 11:54 PM
Not every 5% drop leads to a bear market but every bear market has been preceded by a 5% drop. Here’s how the new year starts
bsky.app/profile/ukar...
bsky.app/profile/ukar...
A good year ends with a bad week. Nine instances in 50 years, all closed higher within 5 days. From Wayne Whaley
January 1, 2026 at 8:24 PM
A good year ends with a bad week. Nine instances in 50 years, all closed higher within 5 days. From Wayne Whaley
$SPX up 7 mo in a row. N=16 since 1950. All closed higher within 5 mo. 1980 rose 8 mo in a row and then it was straight downhill until 1982. From Subutrade
January 1, 2026 at 4:25 PM
Narrator: This was the high of the month for RUT, COMPQ, NDX and DJIA. SPX lost 1% the rest of the month.
bsky.app/profile/ukar...
bsky.app/profile/ukar...
It's the 9th trading day of December when indices are supposed to be at their low. RUT is +3.6%, DJIA is +2.1% and SPX is +1% so far. All are at new ATHs. The good part starts tomorrow?
December 31, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Narrator: This was the high of the month for RUT, COMPQ, NDX and DJIA. SPX lost 1% the rest of the month.
bsky.app/profile/ukar...
bsky.app/profile/ukar...
2025 expected seasonality vs actual (source on chart)
Jan: up (yes)
Feb - March: up (fell 20%)
April - July: up (yes)
Aug - Oct: flat (up 10%)
Nov - Dec: up (dead flat)
Jan: up (yes)
Feb - March: up (fell 20%)
April - July: up (yes)
Aug - Oct: flat (up 10%)
Nov - Dec: up (dead flat)
December 31, 2025 at 4:32 PM
2025 expected seasonality vs actual (source on chart)
Jan: up (yes)
Feb - March: up (fell 20%)
April - July: up (yes)
Aug - Oct: flat (up 10%)
Nov - Dec: up (dead flat)
Jan: up (yes)
Feb - March: up (fell 20%)
April - July: up (yes)
Aug - Oct: flat (up 10%)
Nov - Dec: up (dead flat)
What to expect in 2026 (sources on charts).
- Mid term years are weak: avg gain just 5%
- But second term mid term years are normal: avg gain 9%
- While a President’s 6th year is exceptionally strong: avg gain 21%
- Mid term years are weak: avg gain just 5%
- But second term mid term years are normal: avg gain 9%
- While a President’s 6th year is exceptionally strong: avg gain 21%
December 31, 2025 at 3:37 PM
What to expect in 2026 (sources on charts).
- Mid term years are weak: avg gain just 5%
- But second term mid term years are normal: avg gain 9%
- While a President’s 6th year is exceptionally strong: avg gain 21%
- Mid term years are weak: avg gain just 5%
- But second term mid term years are normal: avg gain 9%
- While a President’s 6th year is exceptionally strong: avg gain 21%
Of 12 $SPX sectors, 9 have made new ATHs this year, and most of those were in the past 2 months (circles)
December 26, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Of 12 $SPX sectors, 9 have made new ATHs this year, and most of those were in the past 2 months (circles)
VIX:VXV 0.76, the lowest since 2021. Last 15 years highlighted. Aside from the 2017 tax cut frenzy, $SPX had a hard time plowing higher unabated
December 25, 2025 at 3:22 PM
VIX:VXV 0.76, the lowest since 2021. Last 15 years highlighted. Aside from the 2017 tax cut frenzy, $SPX had a hard time plowing higher unabated
$SPX 60’ RSI (5) > 90 again. Christmas ham getting overcooked. Similar past year highlighted. Merry Christmas everyone!
December 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
$SPX 60’ RSI (5) > 90 again. Christmas ham getting overcooked. Similar past year highlighted. Merry Christmas everyone!
Today’s real GDP and Final Sales. Two things can be true: the economy is expanding; and growth was at similar levels and above 2% in the Q before the last 5 recessions. The 3Q data was fine but doesn’t tell you much about what’s ahead
December 23, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Today’s real GDP and Final Sales. Two things can be true: the economy is expanding; and growth was at similar levels and above 2% in the Q before the last 5 recessions. The 3Q data was fine but doesn’t tell you much about what’s ahead
10 instances when SPX fell hard in the 1st part of year then rallied strongly the rest of the year (like 2025) have most often led to double digit gains the following year. With all the talk about poor mid-term seasonality and whatnot, this outcome would likely surprise the most. From Wayne Whaley
December 21, 2025 at 4:00 PM
10 instances when SPX fell hard in the 1st part of year then rallied strongly the rest of the year (like 2025) have most often led to double digit gains the following year. With all the talk about poor mid-term seasonality and whatnot, this outcome would likely surprise the most. From Wayne Whaley
True: The upcoming SCR period has had a positive bias. However, “never being down 3 years in a row” is another example of the Gambler’s Fallacy. Scroll up
December 21, 2025 at 3:55 PM
True: The upcoming SCR period has had a positive bias. However, “never being down 3 years in a row” is another example of the Gambler’s Fallacy. Scroll up
BoA Bull/Bear sell signal issued (LHS). Chart of those dates (RHS). Signal vs noise makes this unhelpful. While it hit several drops >10%, it also missed many while also issuing many sell signals that didn't materialize. See notes on chart
December 19, 2025 at 2:27 PM
BoA Bull/Bear sell signal issued (LHS). Chart of those dates (RHS). Signal vs noise makes this unhelpful. While it hit several drops >10%, it also missed many while also issuing many sell signals that didn't materialize. See notes on chart
Today's lower than expected inflation data was expected
December 18, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Today's lower than expected inflation data was expected