Michael Santoli
@michaelsantoli.bsky.social
CNBC talking head. Markets, mostly. Maybe some baseball and movies.
This LA Times piece from 1998 is just one reminder that mature companies in constant job-paring/restructuring mode was a core feature of the '90s "boom," not incompatible with growing GDP/high stock prices...
October 29, 2025 at 1:36 PM
This LA Times piece from 1998 is just one reminder that mature companies in constant job-paring/restructuring mode was a core feature of the '90s "boom," not incompatible with growing GDP/high stock prices...
My standard spoilsport take on this: A company's market cap in real time is an inherently imprecise abstraction. Apple has been buying back about 100m of its shares per quarter so we'll probably find out from its earnings report on Thursday that it didn't hit $4T when it seems it did.
October 28, 2025 at 1:55 PM
My standard spoilsport take on this: A company's market cap in real time is an inherently imprecise abstraction. Apple has been buying back about 100m of its shares per quarter so we'll probably find out from its earnings report on Thursday that it didn't hit $4T when it seems it did.
Street pegs prediction-market volumes +91% in October from last month driven by sports contracts, the NBA in particular. Piper Sandler figures 30% of Kalshi activity is coming via clients of Robinhood, a firm that's enthusiastically blurring zero-sum betting with positive-sum investing activities.
October 28, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Street pegs prediction-market volumes +91% in October from last month driven by sports contracts, the NBA in particular. Piper Sandler figures 30% of Kalshi activity is coming via clients of Robinhood, a firm that's enthusiastically blurring zero-sum betting with positive-sum investing activities.
Now, NYC real estate did suffer badly in the early ‘90s, but mainly due to office overbuilding of in the 1980s and an ongoing retrenchment by Wall Street in the years after the ‘87 crash. This 1993 City Journal piece shows automation in finance has always been a perceived threat to office property.
October 28, 2025 at 1:38 AM
Now, NYC real estate did suffer badly in the early ‘90s, but mainly due to office overbuilding of in the 1980s and an ongoing retrenchment by Wall Street in the years after the ‘87 crash. This 1993 City Journal piece shows automation in finance has always been a perceived threat to office property.
Look familiar?
From my friend Jonathan Mahler’s smart new political/cultural history of late-‘80s NYC, “Gods of New York,” real-estate interests panicking in advance of the 1989 Democratic primary, in which David Dinkins ultimately beat Ed Koch on his way to becoming the city’s first Black mayor…
From my friend Jonathan Mahler’s smart new political/cultural history of late-‘80s NYC, “Gods of New York,” real-estate interests panicking in advance of the 1989 Democratic primary, in which David Dinkins ultimately beat Ed Koch on his way to becoming the city’s first Black mayor…
October 28, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Look familiar?
From my friend Jonathan Mahler’s smart new political/cultural history of late-‘80s NYC, “Gods of New York,” real-estate interests panicking in advance of the 1989 Democratic primary, in which David Dinkins ultimately beat Ed Koch on his way to becoming the city’s first Black mayor…
From my friend Jonathan Mahler’s smart new political/cultural history of late-‘80s NYC, “Gods of New York,” real-estate interests panicking in advance of the 1989 Democratic primary, in which David Dinkins ultimately beat Ed Koch on his way to becoming the city’s first Black mayor…
Some chatter this morning about how today's date historically has been the single most profitable day for stocks for 3-month forwards.
Of course, almost three months ago we hit the single worst date to buy, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 5% since.
Seasonal patterns are climate, not weather...
Of course, almost three months ago we hit the single worst date to buy, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 5% since.
Seasonal patterns are climate, not weather...
October 23, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Some chatter this morning about how today's date historically has been the single most profitable day for stocks for 3-month forwards.
Of course, almost three months ago we hit the single worst date to buy, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 5% since.
Seasonal patterns are climate, not weather...
Of course, almost three months ago we hit the single worst date to buy, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 5% since.
Seasonal patterns are climate, not weather...
JP Morgan's downgrade of Goldman Sachs (by a London-based analyst) serves as a kind of shadow downgrade of JPM itself based on the rationale behind the call.
For comparison, JPM trades at 13.3x 2027 forecast earnings and 2.8x tangible book value.
For comparison, JPM trades at 13.3x 2027 forecast earnings and 2.8x tangible book value.
October 21, 2025 at 11:53 AM
JP Morgan's downgrade of Goldman Sachs (by a London-based analyst) serves as a kind of shadow downgrade of JPM itself based on the rationale behind the call.
For comparison, JPM trades at 13.3x 2027 forecast earnings and 2.8x tangible book value.
For comparison, JPM trades at 13.3x 2027 forecast earnings and 2.8x tangible book value.
Gold and stocks have been moving inversely all day.
With equities, bond yields, the dollar, oil and bitcoin under pressure the past week, gold's unhinged surge came to be seen as an unwelcome anomaly and reflective of erratic flows, rather than just part of an "everything rally."
With equities, bond yields, the dollar, oil and bitcoin under pressure the past week, gold's unhinged surge came to be seen as an unwelcome anomaly and reflective of erratic flows, rather than just part of an "everything rally."
October 17, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Gold and stocks have been moving inversely all day.
With equities, bond yields, the dollar, oil and bitcoin under pressure the past week, gold's unhinged surge came to be seen as an unwelcome anomaly and reflective of erratic flows, rather than just part of an "everything rally."
With equities, bond yields, the dollar, oil and bitcoin under pressure the past week, gold's unhinged surge came to be seen as an unwelcome anomaly and reflective of erratic flows, rather than just part of an "everything rally."
Jamie Dimon says you never see just one, but then I doubt he takes the subway.
October 17, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Jamie Dimon says you never see just one, but then I doubt he takes the subway.
Sellers sleeping late this week, waiting for the reflex morning rally to engage. Third straight intraday wobble.
Bitcoin heavy, wild spec stuff off the boil, S&P 500 spending the entire week within Friday's range as traders sort out whether it opened the way for more chop. VIX >21, wary action.
Bitcoin heavy, wild spec stuff off the boil, S&P 500 spending the entire week within Friday's range as traders sort out whether it opened the way for more chop. VIX >21, wary action.
October 16, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Sellers sleeping late this week, waiting for the reflex morning rally to engage. Third straight intraday wobble.
Bitcoin heavy, wild spec stuff off the boil, S&P 500 spending the entire week within Friday's range as traders sort out whether it opened the way for more chop. VIX >21, wary action.
Bitcoin heavy, wild spec stuff off the boil, S&P 500 spending the entire week within Friday's range as traders sort out whether it opened the way for more chop. VIX >21, wary action.
And the top 20 stocks in the iShares R2K ETF (IWM) are all the momentum spec stuff. Hardly any financials or consumer names in the top 50 index weights...
October 15, 2025 at 12:51 PM
And the top 20 stocks in the iShares R2K ETF (IWM) are all the momentum spec stuff. Hardly any financials or consumer names in the top 50 index weights...
This isn't so much the textbook "Fed cutting rates and broad economy reaccelerating" small-cap revival dynamic.
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
October 15, 2025 at 12:51 PM
This isn't so much the textbook "Fed cutting rates and broad economy reaccelerating" small-cap revival dynamic.
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
Speculative, junky stocks (alt-energy, crypto, mining, drone tech, quantum) are driving R2K way up vs. the "quality" S&P Small Cap 600, which requires members to have profits...
Plenty of excitement in the morning run of market analysis about the apparent breakout in the small-cap Russell 2000 relative to S&P 500. The charts don't lie, but they don't tell you why...
October 15, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Plenty of excitement in the morning run of market analysis about the apparent breakout in the small-cap Russell 2000 relative to S&P 500. The charts don't lie, but they don't tell you why...
Right. Gold and Mag7 are in step the past two years in part because both are considered insulated/independent from the messy macro cycle.
October 14, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Right. Gold and Mag7 are in step the past two years in part because both are considered insulated/independent from the messy macro cycle.
Not to impose logic where there isn't much of it, but one could tell a story about the rolling hot-money speculative waves as crypto lottery winners with windfall paper profits grabbing for other assets that would hedge a "crypto failure" moment. Quantum (could crack crypto encryption), gold/silver.
October 14, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Not to impose logic where there isn't much of it, but one could tell a story about the rolling hot-money speculative waves as crypto lottery winners with windfall paper profits grabbing for other assets that would hedge a "crypto failure" moment. Quantum (could crack crypto encryption), gold/silver.
(Yes, the provincial view of a parent of grown NYC daughters, but underweighting the Northeast and West by 10 percentage points might tilt things a bit.)
October 9, 2025 at 12:03 PM
(Yes, the provincial view of a parent of grown NYC daughters, but underweighting the Northeast and West by 10 percentage points might tilt things a bit.)
The geographic sample in Piper Sandler's teen-spending survey seems built to capture trends on a lagging basis...
October 9, 2025 at 12:00 PM
The geographic sample in Piper Sandler's teen-spending survey seems built to capture trends on a lagging basis...
This phase of the market advance has been led by higher-volatility, lower-quality stocks. Here's the S&P 500 quality-factor ETF relative to the broad S&P 500, back to a 10-year relative-performance low.
October 6, 2025 at 7:46 PM
This phase of the market advance has been led by higher-volatility, lower-quality stocks. Here's the S&P 500 quality-factor ETF relative to the broad S&P 500, back to a 10-year relative-performance low.
Never forget...
October 6, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Never forget...
I filed a poor man’s copyright on that phrase 12 years ago.
October 5, 2025 at 3:09 PM
I filed a poor man’s copyright on that phrase 12 years ago.
And, sure, valuation is a dull market-handicapping tool over short spans of time, has been rising secularly for decades, is somewhat justified by higher-quality index composition and rarely falls much with the Fed cutting and earnings rising. Still, the key indexes are at currnet cycle highs again.
October 5, 2025 at 2:46 PM
And, sure, valuation is a dull market-handicapping tool over short spans of time, has been rising secularly for decades, is somewhat justified by higher-quality index composition and rarely falls much with the Fed cutting and earnings rising. Still, the key indexes are at currnet cycle highs again.
One early signal of more bubbly action, also cited last week, is volatility rising along with share prices. We’re seeing some of that, VIX a bit higher each day last week with the indexes hitting record. Also some tightly coiled conditions with single-stock volatility very high vs. index volability.
October 5, 2025 at 2:46 PM
One early signal of more bubbly action, also cited last week, is volatility rising along with share prices. We’re seeing some of that, VIX a bit higher each day last week with the indexes hitting record. Also some tightly coiled conditions with single-stock volatility very high vs. index volability.
From a week ago, Piper Sandler analyst ballparked that 25-35% of Kalshi daily volumes were from Robinhood users following the launch of prediction trading on HOOD.
October 5, 2025 at 12:38 PM
From a week ago, Piper Sandler analyst ballparked that 25-35% of Kalshi daily volumes were from Robinhood users following the launch of prediction trading on HOOD.
No predictions here, but the last couple of times Tesla went vertical into this price zone in a buying crescendo, the Nasdaq was on the verge of a rough patch...
October 2, 2025 at 8:01 PM
No predictions here, but the last couple of times Tesla went vertical into this price zone in a buying crescendo, the Nasdaq was on the verge of a rough patch...
The market has concluded that Intel is Too Rigged to Fail after the US government took a 10% stake, Nvidia injected some capital as part of a product-development deal and Intel has reportedly talked to Apple and Taiwan Semi about investing or partnering, becoming a quasi meme stock along the way...
September 26, 2025 at 6:48 PM
The market has concluded that Intel is Too Rigged to Fail after the US government took a 10% stake, Nvidia injected some capital as part of a product-development deal and Intel has reportedly talked to Apple and Taiwan Semi about investing or partnering, becoming a quasi meme stock along the way...