John Kastellec
@jkastellec.bsky.social
Professor of Politics at Princeton University @Princeton . http://www.makingthesupremecourt.com
Pinned
John Kastellec
@jkastellec.bsky.social
· Jun 26
Supreme Court Shadow Docket Database
www.shadowdocketdata.com
Happy to announce that @anthonytaboni.bsky.social and I have created a new dataset of the Supreme Court's Shadow Docket actions from 1993-2025. A paper describing the data and a website with the data and documentation are here:
www.shadowdocketdata.com/s/kastellec_...
www.shadowdocketdata.com
www.shadowdocketdata.com/s/kastellec_...
www.shadowdocketdata.com
Reposted by John Kastellec
As a former member of NYT’s finance team & the co-author of this story exposing the relationship between Epstein & Bill Gates as well as one on Epstein & JPMorgan, I am really frustrated to see people claiming that NYT sat on publishable info about Trump and Epstein 🧵 www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/b...
Bill Gates Met With Jeffrey Epstein Many Times, Despite His Past (Published 2019)
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2025 at 3:32 PM
As a former member of NYT’s finance team & the co-author of this story exposing the relationship between Epstein & Bill Gates as well as one on Epstein & JPMorgan, I am really frustrated to see people claiming that NYT sat on publishable info about Trump and Epstein 🧵 www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/b...
Reposted by John Kastellec
The value of close reading: Larry Summers edition
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/13/t...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/13/t...
The value of close reading: Larry Summers edition | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
November 13, 2025 at 2:16 PM
The value of close reading: Larry Summers edition
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/13/t...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/13/t...
Reposted by John Kastellec
Noted economist likes to talk about demographics but he doesn’t know the actual facts.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/12/n...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/12/n...
Noted economist likes to talk about demographics but he doesn’t know the actual facts. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
November 12, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Noted economist likes to talk about demographics but he doesn’t know the actual facts.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/12/n...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/12/n...
Reposted by John Kastellec
Matt makes a critical point. The pain of the shutdown was seriously ramping up while pressure on Republicans had yet to really build. They were losing in polls but not by a margin that would cause them to abandon Trump or Thune.
Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.
Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.
November 11, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Matt makes a critical point. The pain of the shutdown was seriously ramping up while pressure on Republicans had yet to really build. They were losing in polls but not by a margin that would cause them to abandon Trump or Thune.
Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.
Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.
Reposted by John Kastellec
This is Chris Rock's "in-case-shit" bit on insurance, except from a U.S. senator who is a doctor.
Tell me you don’t understand risk pools without telling me you don’t understand risk pools
November 10, 2025 at 7:38 PM
This is Chris Rock's "in-case-shit" bit on insurance, except from a U.S. senator who is a doctor.
Reposted by John Kastellec
Congressional Democrats are discovering the lessons that Republicans learned by launching shutdowns as the minority, they don't end when the governing party capitulates on policy, eventually the hold outs just give up.
November 10, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Congressional Democrats are discovering the lessons that Republicans learned by launching shutdowns as the minority, they don't end when the governing party capitulates on policy, eventually the hold outs just give up.
Reposted by John Kastellec
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
November 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
Reposted by John Kastellec
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
November 10, 2025 at 12:34 AM
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now.
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
- Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season.
- But, just as important...
Reposted by John Kastellec
I see a lot of bad incentives for Democrats to be outraged tonight. It’s a short term CR. Dems have until the end of the year to get the health care subsidies. They can shut it down again if they have to. They’re playing with fire if they hold out too long. Planes will crash.
November 9, 2025 at 11:01 PM
I see a lot of bad incentives for Democrats to be outraged tonight. It’s a short term CR. Dems have until the end of the year to get the health care subsidies. They can shut it down again if they have to. They’re playing with fire if they hold out too long. Planes will crash.
Reposted by John Kastellec
We're closing on two months of one person single-handedly shuttering Congress. This is beyond absurd. No one should be able to do this.
Speaker Johnson is officially keeping the House in recess again next week. This will be the eighth consecutive week the House has been out of session. The chamber hasn't met since Sept. 19. Adelita Grijalva, who was elected on Sept. 23, has not been sworn in.
November 7, 2025 at 7:41 PM
We're closing on two months of one person single-handedly shuttering Congress. This is beyond absurd. No one should be able to do this.
Reposted by John Kastellec
I agree with the bottom line, but I would say that it's least likely to get SCOTUS approval because the issue splits the GOP coalition and most of the GOP Justices are ideologically committed to lower taxes and freer trade.
Of all of Trump's abuses of power, the "emergency" use of tariffs is least likely to get SCOTUS approval because it lacks statutory support AND is against constitutional text. That's hard to defend even in the era of Calvinball law.
Justice Sotomayor:
“You say tariffs are not taxes, but that’s exactly what they are.”
“You say tariffs are not taxes, but that’s exactly what they are.”
November 5, 2025 at 3:48 PM
I agree with the bottom line, but I would say that it's least likely to get SCOTUS approval because the issue splits the GOP coalition and most of the GOP Justices are ideologically committed to lower taxes and freer trade.
Reposted by John Kastellec
dawg not the steakhouse wedding font
November 5, 2025 at 3:33 PM
dawg not the steakhouse wedding font
Reposted by John Kastellec
So much D over-claiming about last night. Bingo card:
-"This proves we have to {do what I wanted to do anyway}"
-"{A winning D} supported {position on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter"
-"{A losing R} used {issue/tactic on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter"
-"This proves we have to {do what I wanted to do anyway}"
-"{A winning D} supported {position on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter"
-"{A losing R} used {issue/tactic on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter"
November 5, 2025 at 1:45 PM
So much D over-claiming about last night. Bingo card:
-"This proves we have to {do what I wanted to do anyway}"
-"{A winning D} supported {position on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter"
-"{A losing R} used {issue/tactic on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter"
-"This proves we have to {do what I wanted to do anyway}"
-"{A winning D} supported {position on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter"
-"{A losing R} used {issue/tactic on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter"
Reposted by John Kastellec
“I wish Andrew Cuomo only the best in private life”
November 5, 2025 at 4:22 AM
“I wish Andrew Cuomo only the best in private life”
Reposted by John Kastellec
“TURN THE VOLUME UP!”
Banger of a line from Mamdani
Banger of a line from Mamdani
November 5, 2025 at 4:36 AM
“TURN THE VOLUME UP!”
Banger of a line from Mamdani
Banger of a line from Mamdani
Reposted by John Kastellec
Cuomo gave a fairly graceless concession speech, and Mamdani rips his skin off:
"My friends, we have toppled a political dynasty. I wish Andrew Cuomo the best in private life. But let tonight be the last time I mention his name."
"My friends, we have toppled a political dynasty. I wish Andrew Cuomo the best in private life. But let tonight be the last time I mention his name."
November 5, 2025 at 4:21 AM
Cuomo gave a fairly graceless concession speech, and Mamdani rips his skin off:
"My friends, we have toppled a political dynasty. I wish Andrew Cuomo the best in private life. But let tonight be the last time I mention his name."
"My friends, we have toppled a political dynasty. I wish Andrew Cuomo the best in private life. But let tonight be the last time I mention his name."
Reposted by John Kastellec
Counterpoint: this bullshit policy was touted as something that should be rolled out nationwide, as a fking paragon of progressive policy. It showed up in “detracking” decks in districts across the country.
While parents in SF literally filed FOIAs bc the district lied ab impact. No retcons tks.
While parents in SF literally filed FOIAs bc the district lied ab impact. No retcons tks.
I don't think it helps the debate about what Democrats should do to pick an obscure thing that some Democrat somewhere may have said -- like on teaching eighth grade algebra -- and then attribute it to Democrats generally.
November 4, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Counterpoint: this bullshit policy was touted as something that should be rolled out nationwide, as a fking paragon of progressive policy. It showed up in “detracking” decks in districts across the country.
While parents in SF literally filed FOIAs bc the district lied ab impact. No retcons tks.
While parents in SF literally filed FOIAs bc the district lied ab impact. No retcons tks.
Reposted by John Kastellec
This is an incredible and very specific hater energy substack.com/home/post/p-...
Dick Cheney, ABD
Remembering the greatest alt-ac of them all
substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 2:28 PM
This is an incredible and very specific hater energy substack.com/home/post/p-...
Reposted by John Kastellec
In a normal situation, this order would be so humiliating the district judge would act within the week.
JUST IN: 11th Circuit politely tells Judge Aileen Cannon to get moving on motions seeking to unseal remainder of Special Counsel Jack Smith's final report. Basically, gives her 60 days to act or appeals court will take further action. Doc: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
#11 in In re: Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia Unive (11th Cir., 25-13403) – CourtListener.com
ORDER: Motion for writ of mandamus filed by Petitioner American Oversight is HELD in abeyance. [10567702-2] in 25-13400, Motion for writ of mandamus filed by Petitioner Knight First Amendment Institut...
storage.courtlistener.com
November 3, 2025 at 8:06 PM
In a normal situation, this order would be so humiliating the district judge would act within the week.
Reposted by John Kastellec
Abduction of Proserpina, by Giambologna, 1579 (from the @NortonSimon Museum in Pasadena), 📸 by @nturchiarophoto
November 2, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Abduction of Proserpina, by Giambologna, 1579 (from the @NortonSimon Museum in Pasadena), 📸 by @nturchiarophoto
Reposted by John Kastellec
Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, college–noncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
November 1, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, college–noncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by John Kastellec
Well, this is a story all about how, this game got flipped turned upside down . . . .
November 2, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Well, this is a story all about how, this game got flipped turned upside down . . . .
Reposted by John Kastellec
i'm sorry but that play at the plate had to be AI-generated
November 2, 2025 at 3:39 AM
i'm sorry but that play at the plate had to be AI-generated
Reposted by John Kastellec
An Air Canada flight right now
November 2, 2025 at 1:38 AM
An Air Canada flight right now
