E.J. Fagan
@ejfagan.com
Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Illinois Chicago. Author of The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics. Also, baseball.
Pinned
E.J. Fagan
@ejfagan.com
· Nov 18
The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics (Studies in Postwar American Political Development): Fagan, E.J.: 9780197759660: Amazon.com: Books
The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics (Studies in Postwar American Political Development) [Fagan, E.J.] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics (Studies in Postwar American Political Development)
www.amazon.com
Hello new Bluesky followers!
I study U.S. politics and policymaking, focusing on the politicization of expertise and information processing.
I published a great book this summer. It's called The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics. Check it out!
I study U.S. politics and policymaking, focusing on the politicization of expertise and information processing.
I published a great book this summer. It's called The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics. Check it out!
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
To recap, among young voters…
Prop 50: +58
Sherril: +37
Spanberger: +40
Mamdani: +61
I better see the media start retracting some of those stories saying Gen Z is the most conservative generation.
Prop 50: +58
Sherril: +37
Spanberger: +40
Mamdani: +61
I better see the media start retracting some of those stories saying Gen Z is the most conservative generation.
November 5, 2025 at 5:37 AM
To recap, among young voters…
Prop 50: +58
Sherril: +37
Spanberger: +40
Mamdani: +61
I better see the media start retracting some of those stories saying Gen Z is the most conservative generation.
Prop 50: +58
Sherril: +37
Spanberger: +40
Mamdani: +61
I better see the media start retracting some of those stories saying Gen Z is the most conservative generation.
Could be a net win depending on what Florida, Maryland and Illinois do, plus a potential veto referendum in Missouri.
Question is if Florida doesn’t want to be super aggressive ahead of a potential D+8 environment. Dummymander danger.
Question is if Florida doesn’t want to be super aggressive ahead of a potential D+8 environment. Dummymander danger.
November 11, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Could be a net win depending on what Florida, Maryland and Illinois do, plus a potential veto referendum in Missouri.
Question is if Florida doesn’t want to be super aggressive ahead of a potential D+8 environment. Dummymander danger.
Question is if Florida doesn’t want to be super aggressive ahead of a potential D+8 environment. Dummymander danger.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
So they just ride into town hollering and shooting like Pinkertons hired by the railroad baron in an old western, and then they leave
///BREAKING/// Controversial Border Patrol Cmdr. Gregory Bovino and a surge of agents appear to be leaving Chicago within days as "Operation Midway Blitz" winds down after two months, sources tell the Tribune.
www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/10/f...
www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/10/f...
Federal Border Patrol Chief Gregory Bovino and agents said to be leaving Chicago, sources say
Cmdr. Gregory Bovino was expected to depart Chicago within days, while most Border Patrol agents under this command would soon be redeployed elsewhere, three sources told the Tribune Monday.
www.chicagotribune.com
November 11, 2025 at 5:20 AM
So they just ride into town hollering and shooting like Pinkertons hired by the railroad baron in an old western, and then they leave
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
NEW: President Trump's pardon of his alleged 2020 co-conspirators was less about shielding them from past crimes, his adversaries say, than about signaling to others that he has their back if he needs them again in 2026 or 2028.
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
November 11, 2025 at 12:27 AM
NEW: President Trump's pardon of his alleged 2020 co-conspirators was less about shielding them from past crimes, his adversaries say, than about signaling to others that he has their back if he needs them again in 2026 or 2028.
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
Pluribus is so incredibly great.
November 11, 2025 at 12:57 AM
Pluribus is so incredibly great.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
My ACA current plan is going from $385/mo to $821/mo.
November 11, 2025 at 12:21 AM
My ACA current plan is going from $385/mo to $821/mo.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
MLB announced a deal with sportsbooks to limit betting on pitch-level results (ball/strike; pitch velocity). MLB authorized operators will cap wagers on those bets at $200 and exclude those bets from parlays.
These were the bets that led to the indictments Emmanuel Clase and Luis L. Ortiz.
These were the bets that led to the indictments Emmanuel Clase and Luis L. Ortiz.
November 10, 2025 at 9:16 PM
MLB announced a deal with sportsbooks to limit betting on pitch-level results (ball/strike; pitch velocity). MLB authorized operators will cap wagers on those bets at $200 and exclude those bets from parlays.
These were the bets that led to the indictments Emmanuel Clase and Luis L. Ortiz.
These were the bets that led to the indictments Emmanuel Clase and Luis L. Ortiz.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
2013: GOP shut down govt to DEFUND ACA
2025: Democrats shut down govt to FUND ACA
2013: GOP surrender after 17 days
2025: Democrats surrender after 37 days
2014: GOP +9(!!) in Sen, +13 in Hou
2026: ???
To change policy this was doomed from the start, and will be judged on electoral impact.
2025: Democrats shut down govt to FUND ACA
2013: GOP surrender after 17 days
2025: Democrats surrender after 37 days
2014: GOP +9(!!) in Sen, +13 in Hou
2026: ???
To change policy this was doomed from the start, and will be judged on electoral impact.
November 10, 2025 at 6:46 PM
2013: GOP shut down govt to DEFUND ACA
2025: Democrats shut down govt to FUND ACA
2013: GOP surrender after 17 days
2025: Democrats surrender after 37 days
2014: GOP +9(!!) in Sen, +13 in Hou
2026: ???
To change policy this was doomed from the start, and will be judged on electoral impact.
2025: Democrats shut down govt to FUND ACA
2013: GOP surrender after 17 days
2025: Democrats surrender after 37 days
2014: GOP +9(!!) in Sen, +13 in Hou
2026: ???
To change policy this was doomed from the start, and will be judged on electoral impact.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
What sort of midterms do the Democrats' New Jersey and Virginia midterms point to? I had a look using historic results and wound up with a central estimate of D+6 and a confidence interval from R+5 to D+16. Not exactly conclusive! owenwinter.co.uk/2025/11/10/d...
November 10, 2025 at 6:56 PM
What sort of midterms do the Democrats' New Jersey and Virginia midterms point to? I had a look using historic results and wound up with a central estimate of D+6 and a confidence interval from R+5 to D+16. Not exactly conclusive! owenwinter.co.uk/2025/11/10/d...
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
If he thinks that bad, wait til he sees how few people file claims for auto, fire, and flood insurance.
Tell me you don’t understand risk pools without telling me you don’t understand risk pools
November 10, 2025 at 3:24 PM
If he thinks that bad, wait til he sees how few people file claims for auto, fire, and flood insurance.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
11) The discussion about health care was useful PR, but covered up discussion over the power of the purse, which is fundamental. If the WH doesn't have to follow the law, it doesn't matter what you pass.
With the remaining approps bills + CR, Dems still could fight that fight. If they're smart
With the remaining approps bills + CR, Dems still could fight that fight. If they're smart
November 10, 2025 at 2:01 PM
11) The discussion about health care was useful PR, but covered up discussion over the power of the purse, which is fundamental. If the WH doesn't have to follow the law, it doesn't matter what you pass.
With the remaining approps bills + CR, Dems still could fight that fight. If they're smart
With the remaining approps bills + CR, Dems still could fight that fight. If they're smart
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
Assume all the yes and no votes from Dem senators are strategic and not sincere votes. The party caucus made a decision. No way to know how many were in favor. Then the caucus decided who would vote yes and no based on what would protect each of them politically the most. That’s how this works.
November 10, 2025 at 2:12 AM
Assume all the yes and no votes from Dem senators are strategic and not sincere votes. The party caucus made a decision. No way to know how many were in favor. Then the caucus decided who would vote yes and no based on what would protect each of them politically the most. That’s how this works.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
5) Dems showed (a) it's possible to get something out of "shutting down the government" despite what the pundits said, and (b) that they could hold together for 40 days. It's not a policy win, but it changes expectations for what they can do in the future, strengthening their negotiating position.
November 10, 2025 at 1:53 PM
5) Dems showed (a) it's possible to get something out of "shutting down the government" despite what the pundits said, and (b) that they could hold together for 40 days. It's not a policy win, but it changes expectations for what they can do in the future, strengthening their negotiating position.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
November 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
The best take on all of this shutdown came from @shannonrwatts.bsky.social who told me this would only end by Republicans killing the filibuster or Democrats caving. That’s it. But Schumer somehow broadcast that Republicans would cave when they never gave any indication they would.
November 10, 2025 at 12:33 PM
The best take on all of this shutdown came from @shannonrwatts.bsky.social who told me this would only end by Republicans killing the filibuster or Democrats caving. That’s it. But Schumer somehow broadcast that Republicans would cave when they never gave any indication they would.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
6-8%
Headline from a serious and long working paper on the economic impact of Brexit. Possible that this has been feeding into OBR and HMT discussions?
November 10, 2025 at 10:31 AM
6-8%
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
BREAKING: Trump was just viciously BOOED at the Washington Commanders Detroit Lions game.
I’ve never heard a president booed this loudly in my life. Holy cow!
I’ve never heard a president booed this loudly in my life. Holy cow!
November 9, 2025 at 11:29 PM
BREAKING: Trump was just viciously BOOED at the Washington Commanders Detroit Lions game.
I’ve never heard a president booed this loudly in my life. Holy cow!
I’ve never heard a president booed this loudly in my life. Holy cow!
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
3 GOOD: some real approps working right for the first time in EONS, built based on need & politics, not from toplines. SHALL language on backpay 4 feds. Good anti-RIF language we’d want to see continued
2 BAD: Nothing forces Trump to actually FOLLOW the approps. A vote we could have forced already
2 BAD: Nothing forces Trump to actually FOLLOW the approps. A vote we could have forced already
Text of the CR here. Negative implications galore.
www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
www.appropriations.senate.gov
November 10, 2025 at 12:10 AM
3 GOOD: some real approps working right for the first time in EONS, built based on need & politics, not from toplines. SHALL language on backpay 4 feds. Good anti-RIF language we’d want to see continued
2 BAD: Nothing forces Trump to actually FOLLOW the approps. A vote we could have forced already
2 BAD: Nothing forces Trump to actually FOLLOW the approps. A vote we could have forced already
Vote no hope yes caucus
November 10, 2025 at 1:46 AM
Vote no hope yes caucus
Take the W
The RIFs language is actually great. Not only does it rehire the people RIFed during the shutdown, it makes it an unequivocal Antideficiency Act violation to do ANY MORE RIFs through the duration of the CR (Jan 30)
Completely stops Trump/Vought Phase 2 for now
Would love to see this standardized
Completely stops Trump/Vought Phase 2 for now
Would love to see this standardized
November 10, 2025 at 1:33 AM
Take the W
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
The RIFs language is actually great. Not only does it rehire the people RIFed during the shutdown, it makes it an unequivocal Antideficiency Act violation to do ANY MORE RIFs through the duration of the CR (Jan 30)
Completely stops Trump/Vought Phase 2 for now
Would love to see this standardized
Completely stops Trump/Vought Phase 2 for now
Would love to see this standardized
November 10, 2025 at 12:27 AM
The RIFs language is actually great. Not only does it rehire the people RIFed during the shutdown, it makes it an unequivocal Antideficiency Act violation to do ANY MORE RIFs through the duration of the CR (Jan 30)
Completely stops Trump/Vought Phase 2 for now
Would love to see this standardized
Completely stops Trump/Vought Phase 2 for now
Would love to see this standardized
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
Tentative Senate deal to end shutdown, multiple sources tell me & @frankthorp.bsky.social:
—CR through Jan 30
—Approps minibus
—Fully funds SNAP
—Reverses Trump’s shutdown RIFs
—Promise of Senate vote on ACA subsidies by Dec second week (details/outcome uncertain)
—Led by King/Shaheen/Hassan
—CR through Jan 30
—Approps minibus
—Fully funds SNAP
—Reverses Trump’s shutdown RIFs
—Promise of Senate vote on ACA subsidies by Dec second week (details/outcome uncertain)
—Led by King/Shaheen/Hassan
November 10, 2025 at 12:46 AM
Tentative Senate deal to end shutdown, multiple sources tell me & @frankthorp.bsky.social:
—CR through Jan 30
—Approps minibus
—Fully funds SNAP
—Reverses Trump’s shutdown RIFs
—Promise of Senate vote on ACA subsidies by Dec second week (details/outcome uncertain)
—Led by King/Shaheen/Hassan
—CR through Jan 30
—Approps minibus
—Fully funds SNAP
—Reverses Trump’s shutdown RIFs
—Promise of Senate vote on ACA subsidies by Dec second week (details/outcome uncertain)
—Led by King/Shaheen/Hassan
I know that no one wants to say it out loud but the best thing for Democrats politically would be for ACA rates to skyrocket over their loud objections.
November 9, 2025 at 11:13 PM
I know that no one wants to say it out loud but the best thing for Democrats politically would be for ACA rates to skyrocket over their loud objections.
I see a lot of bad incentives for Democrats to be outraged tonight. It’s a short term CR. Dems have until the end of the year to get the health care subsidies. They can shut it down again if they have to. They’re playing with fire if they hold out too long. Planes will crash.
November 9, 2025 at 11:01 PM
I see a lot of bad incentives for Democrats to be outraged tonight. It’s a short term CR. Dems have until the end of the year to get the health care subsidies. They can shut it down again if they have to. They’re playing with fire if they hold out too long. Planes will crash.