E.J. Fagan
@ejfagan.com
Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Illinois Chicago. Author of The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics. Also, baseball.
Pinned
E.J. Fagan
@ejfagan.com
· Nov 18
The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics (Studies in Postwar American Political Development): Fagan, E.J.: 9780197759660: Amazon.com: Books
The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics (Studies in Postwar American Political Development) [Fagan, E.J.] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics (Studies in Postwar American Political Development)
www.amazon.com
Hello new Bluesky followers!
I study U.S. politics and policymaking, focusing on the politicization of expertise and information processing.
I published a great book this summer. It's called The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics. Check it out!
I study U.S. politics and policymaking, focusing on the politicization of expertise and information processing.
I published a great book this summer. It's called The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics. Check it out!
And born into Italian immigrant communities where first and second generation immigrants often spoke another language, worshipped at a different church and were occasionally involved in organized crime.
Dean Martin, born Dino Paul Crocetti, son of Italian immigrant Gaetano Crocetti
Frank Sinatra, son of Italian immigrants Antonino Sinatra and Natalina Garavanta
Merry Christmas to everyone except Stephen Miller and his enablers and handlers
Frank Sinatra, son of Italian immigrants Antonino Sinatra and Natalina Garavanta
Merry Christmas to everyone except Stephen Miller and his enablers and handlers
December 26, 2025 at 7:01 PM
And born into Italian immigrant communities where first and second generation immigrants often spoke another language, worshipped at a different church and were occasionally involved in organized crime.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
Dean Martin, born Dino Paul Crocetti, son of Italian immigrant Gaetano Crocetti
Frank Sinatra, son of Italian immigrants Antonino Sinatra and Natalina Garavanta
Merry Christmas to everyone except Stephen Miller and his enablers and handlers
Frank Sinatra, son of Italian immigrants Antonino Sinatra and Natalina Garavanta
Merry Christmas to everyone except Stephen Miller and his enablers and handlers
December 26, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Dean Martin, born Dino Paul Crocetti, son of Italian immigrant Gaetano Crocetti
Frank Sinatra, son of Italian immigrants Antonino Sinatra and Natalina Garavanta
Merry Christmas to everyone except Stephen Miller and his enablers and handlers
Frank Sinatra, son of Italian immigrants Antonino Sinatra and Natalina Garavanta
Merry Christmas to everyone except Stephen Miller and his enablers and handlers
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
The Wisconsin component of the analysis here is revealing. Evidence is consistent with DOGE strategically delaying contract terminations in WI until after the 2025 state Supreme Court elections to mitigate electoral risk.
December 26, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The Wisconsin component of the analysis here is revealing. Evidence is consistent with DOGE strategically delaying contract terminations in WI until after the 2025 state Supreme Court elections to mitigate electoral risk.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
"Even after accounting for the upfront costs and delayed benefits, enrolling marginal applicants to public universities generates substantial net returns for society, the marginal students themselves, and the government budget."
Public Universities FTW!
Public Universities FTW!
December 24, 2025 at 9:00 PM
"Even after accounting for the upfront costs and delayed benefits, enrolling marginal applicants to public universities generates substantial net returns for society, the marginal students themselves, and the government budget."
Public Universities FTW!
Public Universities FTW!
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
🎄 Hope you’ve got all your presents ready 💝
Google search interest shows a stable pattern:
🎅 “Christmas gift wife” peaks just before Christmas Eve
🎅 “Christmas gift husband” peaks much earlier
#MerryChristmas to all of you! 🎁
📈 Google Trends (Nov 18–Dec 24, 2020–2024)
#dataviz #ggplot2
Google search interest shows a stable pattern:
🎅 “Christmas gift wife” peaks just before Christmas Eve
🎅 “Christmas gift husband” peaks much earlier
#MerryChristmas to all of you! 🎁
📈 Google Trends (Nov 18–Dec 24, 2020–2024)
#dataviz #ggplot2
December 24, 2025 at 10:16 AM
🎄 Hope you’ve got all your presents ready 💝
Google search interest shows a stable pattern:
🎅 “Christmas gift wife” peaks just before Christmas Eve
🎅 “Christmas gift husband” peaks much earlier
#MerryChristmas to all of you! 🎁
📈 Google Trends (Nov 18–Dec 24, 2020–2024)
#dataviz #ggplot2
Google search interest shows a stable pattern:
🎅 “Christmas gift wife” peaks just before Christmas Eve
🎅 “Christmas gift husband” peaks much earlier
#MerryChristmas to all of you! 🎁
📈 Google Trends (Nov 18–Dec 24, 2020–2024)
#dataviz #ggplot2
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
greatest generation update; ex-Marine traumatised in combat on Okinawa may have been both the Black Dahlia perpetrator *and* the Zodiac killer: www.latimes.com/california/s...
An amateur codebreaker may have just solved the Black Dahlia and Zodiac killings
Two retired LAPD homicide detectives say that both notorious cases are solved -- with a single culprit -- thanks to the work of a novice sleuth.
www.latimes.com
December 23, 2025 at 11:18 PM
greatest generation update; ex-Marine traumatised in combat on Okinawa may have been both the Black Dahlia perpetrator *and* the Zodiac killer: www.latimes.com/california/s...
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
"Kavanaugh Stop" went from a skeet on here to Bluesky meme to crosspollinating over on X to Brett Kavanaugh's burner account seeing it there to a whiny defensive footnote about it in a decision by the Supreme Court of the United States.
Juice.
Juice.
Check out the Kavanaugh FN 4; I think it's pretty clear that the Kavanaugh Stop thing has gotten to him:
December 23, 2025 at 9:26 PM
"Kavanaugh Stop" went from a skeet on here to Bluesky meme to crosspollinating over on X to Brett Kavanaugh's burner account seeing it there to a whiny defensive footnote about it in a decision by the Supreme Court of the United States.
Juice.
Juice.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
NOTED: In Kavanaugh's Illinois National Guard solo concurrence, he adds footnote that seems to try to calm outrage over his solo opinion in the CA ICE emergency ruling that led to some calling race-based immigration arrests "Kavanaugh stops." Earlier: www.politico.com/news/2025/09...
December 23, 2025 at 9:09 PM
NOTED: In Kavanaugh's Illinois National Guard solo concurrence, he adds footnote that seems to try to calm outrage over his solo opinion in the CA ICE emergency ruling that led to some calling race-based immigration arrests "Kavanaugh stops." Earlier: www.politico.com/news/2025/09...
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
Wow. Genuinely shocked, and a hugely consequential decision.
Importantly, this is a case where @martylederman.bsky.social's amicus brief appears to have made a MAJOR impact. Before he wrote it, courts were sidestepping the "regular forces" issue entirely. And that's what the Trump admin lost on.
Importantly, this is a case where @martylederman.bsky.social's amicus brief appears to have made a MAJOR impact. Before he wrote it, courts were sidestepping the "regular forces" issue entirely. And that's what the Trump admin lost on.
NEW: By a 6-3 vote, the Supreme Court blocks Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to Chicago to assist immigration agents. A majority holds that he likely lacks authority to do so. Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch dissent. www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
![The Government asked this Court to stay the District Court's order. After the response and reply were filed, JUSTICE BARRETT referred the application to the Court. We directed the parties to file supplemental letter briefs on an issue that the District Court had addressed but the parties' initial briefs had not: the meaning of the term "regular forces" in §12406(3). In its supplemental brief, the Government argues that the term refers to civilian law enforcement officers, such as those employed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement or the Federal Protective Service.
Respondents, echoing the District Court, maintain that the term refers to the regular forces of the United States mili-tary.
We conclude that the term "regular forces" in §12406(3) likely refers to the regular forces of the United States mili-tary. This interpretation means that to call the Guard into active federal service under §12406(3), the President must be "unable" with the regular military "to execute the laws of the United States." Because the statute requires an assessment of the military's ability to execute the laws, it likely applies only where the military could legally execute the laws. Such circumstances are exceptional: Under the Posse Comitatus Act, the military is prohibited from "execut[ing] the laws" "except in cases and under circumstances expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress."
18 U. S. C. §1385. So before the President can federalize the Guard under §12406(3), he likely must have statutory or constitutional authority to execute the laws with the regular military and must be "unable" with those forces to perform that function.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:6h7b2i6ttw3l4t7pvbvxdith/bafkreiftbhzwvn3vgwhqsi7k2paizvdw4t26ailljvovso3chqupnmj364@jpeg)
December 23, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Wow. Genuinely shocked, and a hugely consequential decision.
Importantly, this is a case where @martylederman.bsky.social's amicus brief appears to have made a MAJOR impact. Before he wrote it, courts were sidestepping the "regular forces" issue entirely. And that's what the Trump admin lost on.
Importantly, this is a case where @martylederman.bsky.social's amicus brief appears to have made a MAJOR impact. Before he wrote it, courts were sidestepping the "regular forces" issue entirely. And that's what the Trump admin lost on.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
#BREAKING The U.S. Supreme Court has sided with the State of Illinois on National Guard deployment.
Under the law invoked by President Trump, he must be unable "with the regular military" to "execute the laws of the United States," it finds.
Full ruling here: cst.brightspotcdn.com/80/88/05a75e...
Under the law invoked by President Trump, he must be unable "with the regular military" to "execute the laws of the United States," it finds.
Full ruling here: cst.brightspotcdn.com/80/88/05a75e...
![SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES
_________________
No. 25A443 _________________
DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, ET AL. v. ILLINOIS, ET AL.
ON APPLICATION FOR STAY [December 23, 2025]
Federal immigration-enforcement efforts have encoun- tered significant resistance, as well as some violence, in Chicago. According to the Government, federal officers have been obstructed, threatened, and assaulted as they at- tempt to perform their duties. The Government also alleges that an Immigration and Customs Enforcement processing facility in Broadview, Illinois, has been the site of frequent and sometimes violent protests, damaging federal property and threatening the safety of federal officers. These at- tacks, the Government says, have greatly impeded its ef- forts to enforce the immigration laws.
On October 4, 2025, the President called 300 members of the Illinois National Guard into active federal service to protect federal personnel and property in Illinois, particu- larly in and around Chicago. The following day, members of the Texas National Guard were also federalized and sent to Chicago. In calling forth the Guard, the President relied on 10 U. S. C. §12406(3), which empowers him to federalize members of the Guard if he is “unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States.”
The United States District Court for the Northern Dis- trict of Illinois entered a temporary restraining order bar- ring the federalization and deployment of the Guard in Illi- nois. The Seventh Circuit denied in relevant part the Government’s motion for a stay, permitting the Guard to](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:elipdmmf5istuvtyituspske/bafkreigkgum5sfni47efippr7j6ykofa7anuo6cqpkfjztkzkfnvubdafe@jpeg)
![remain federalized within Illinois but maintaining the bar on deployment.
The Government asked this Court to stay the District Court’s order. After the response and reply were filed, JUSTICE BARRETT referred the application to the Court. We directed the parties to file supplemental letter briefs on an issue that the District Court had addressed but the parties’ initial briefs had not: the meaning of the term “regular forces” in §12406(3). In its supplemental brief, the Govern- ment argues that the term refers to civilian law enforce- ment officers, such as those employed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement or the Federal Protective Service. Respondents, echoing the District Court, maintain that the term refers to the regular forces of the United States mili- tary.
We conclude that the term “regular forces” in §12406(3) likely refers to the regular forces of the United States mili- tary. This interpretation means that to call the Guard into active federal service under §12406(3), the President must be “unable” with the regular military “to execute the laws of the United States.” Because the statute requires an assess- ment of the military’s ability to execute the laws, it likely applies only where the military could legally execute the laws. Such circumstances are exceptional: Under the Posse Comitatus Act, the military is prohibited from “execut[ing] the laws” “except in cases and under circumstances ex- pressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress.” 18 U. S. C. §1385. So before the President can federalize the Guard under §12406(3), he likely must have statutory or constitutional authority to execute the laws with the reg- ular military and must be “unable” with those forces to per- form that function.
At this preliminary stage, the Government has failed to identify a source of authority that would allow the military to execute the laws in Illinois. The President has not in- voked a statute that provides an exception to the Posse](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:elipdmmf5istuvtyituspske/bafkreico7h4hdwfyr6byznbn2d7y2wuhraae6jhvupnyew5s7kwjegnpva@jpeg)
![Comitatus Act. Instead, he relies on inherent constitu- tional authority that, according to the Government, allows him to use the military to protect federal personnel and property. But the Government also claims—consistent with the longstanding view of the Executive Branch—that performing such protective functions does not constitute “execut[ing] the laws” within the meaning of the Posse Comitatus Act. See Supp. Letter Reply Brief for Applicants 8; 1 Supp. Op. OLC 343, n. 1 (1971) (collecting sources). If that is correct, it is hard to see how performing those func- tions could constitute “execut[ing] the laws” under §12406(3). See Azar v. Allina Health Services, 587 U. S. 566, 574 (2019) (“This Court does not lightly assume that Congress silently attaches different meanings to the same term in the same or related statutes”). Thus, at least in this posture, the Government has not carried its burden to show that §12406(3) permits the President to federalize the Guard in the exercise of inherent authority to protect fed- eral personnel and property in Illinois. We need not and do not address the reviewability of findings made by the Pres- ident under §12406(3) or any other statute.
The application for stay is denied.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:elipdmmf5istuvtyituspske/bafkreigpypa435od2mqkxeftymwgbg2uepclp6razy2u5gc3efakb7v2kq@jpeg)
December 23, 2025 at 8:21 PM
#BREAKING The U.S. Supreme Court has sided with the State of Illinois on National Guard deployment.
Under the law invoked by President Trump, he must be unable "with the regular military" to "execute the laws of the United States," it finds.
Full ruling here: cst.brightspotcdn.com/80/88/05a75e...
Under the law invoked by President Trump, he must be unable "with the regular military" to "execute the laws of the United States," it finds.
Full ruling here: cst.brightspotcdn.com/80/88/05a75e...
Nilay Patel sounds like the exact same person behind the scenes as the force of chaos he is on The Vergecast.
December 22, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Nilay Patel sounds like the exact same person behind the scenes as the force of chaos he is on The Vergecast.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
This is a big deal in the conservative legal world: John Malcom and the Ed Meese center are leaving the Heritage Foundation, 15 staff departing in all. (Hard to translate this for a BlueSky audience, but it's a pretty significant move in the conservative legal world.)
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
Exclusive | Top Heritage Officials Flee to Mike Pence’s Nonprofit as Think Tank Fractures
The former vice president’s political group is poaching top officials from the foundation amid growing ideological fights within the conservative movement.
www.wsj.com
December 22, 2025 at 7:39 PM
This is a big deal in the conservative legal world: John Malcom and the Ed Meese center are leaving the Heritage Foundation, 15 staff departing in all. (Hard to translate this for a BlueSky audience, but it's a pretty significant move in the conservative legal world.)
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
From @science.org Breakthrough of the Year: Solar Energy
December 21, 2025 at 1:48 PM
From @science.org Breakthrough of the Year: Solar Energy
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
They're so transparent they're removing photos of Donald Trump. And now I'm getting an "access denied" message when I go back to look.
December 20, 2025 at 5:28 PM
They're so transparent they're removing photos of Donald Trump. And now I'm getting an "access denied" message when I go back to look.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
The White House has been caught.
The administration inserted a photo of Bill Clinton, Michael Jackson, and Diana Ross into the Epstein files and falsely implied it showed them with victims.
In reality, it’s a publicly available fundraiser photo featuring Jackson and Ross’s own children.
The administration inserted a photo of Bill Clinton, Michael Jackson, and Diana Ross into the Epstein files and falsely implied it showed them with victims.
In reality, it’s a publicly available fundraiser photo featuring Jackson and Ross’s own children.
December 20, 2025 at 12:33 PM
The White House has been caught.
The administration inserted a photo of Bill Clinton, Michael Jackson, and Diana Ross into the Epstein files and falsely implied it showed them with victims.
In reality, it’s a publicly available fundraiser photo featuring Jackson and Ross’s own children.
The administration inserted a photo of Bill Clinton, Michael Jackson, and Diana Ross into the Epstein files and falsely implied it showed them with victims.
In reality, it’s a publicly available fundraiser photo featuring Jackson and Ross’s own children.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
10. In other words, in 2012 new production benefited domestic producers AND consumers. But today, new production only benefits producers. That's a fundamentally different policy and political environment. And note also that domestic consumption is basically flat for the last 20 yrs.
December 20, 2025 at 3:35 PM
10. In other words, in 2012 new production benefited domestic producers AND consumers. But today, new production only benefits producers. That's a fundamentally different policy and political environment. And note also that domestic consumption is basically flat for the last 20 yrs.
My grandmother was a DAR member too. The parades were nice. Her grandmother was one of the first female attorneys in Ohio.
She didn’t think it made her superior to her first generation daughter-in-law for one second.
She didn’t think it made her superior to her first generation daughter-in-law for one second.
If immigrating from England makes you a "heritage American" then I guess I'm one too.
December 20, 2025 at 3:56 PM
My grandmother was a DAR member too. The parades were nice. Her grandmother was one of the first female attorneys in Ohio.
She didn’t think it made her superior to her first generation daughter-in-law for one second.
She didn’t think it made her superior to her first generation daughter-in-law for one second.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
Labor market was so awful in the 1980s that real wages fell for the bottom fifth of workers and didn't bounce back for over a decade
December 20, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Labor market was so awful in the 1980s that real wages fell for the bottom fifth of workers and didn't bounce back for over a decade
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
For my latest, I explored the 17-year lawsuit between a Trump official and his Tallahassee interior designers, which had twists and turns that astonished experts who reviewed the docket. Here's a gift link: wapo.st/4pNVV1L
Inside the 17-year lawsuit between a Trump official and his interior designers
A lawsuit between former Trump official Pete Marocco and a Florida design firm has gone on for over a decade, involving complex legal maneuvers and accusations.
wapo.st
December 20, 2025 at 1:19 PM
For my latest, I explored the 17-year lawsuit between a Trump official and his Tallahassee interior designers, which had twists and turns that astonished experts who reviewed the docket. Here's a gift link: wapo.st/4pNVV1L
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
Fascinating; Illinois had a 110-year history of cumulative voting (a semi-PR system) that got ended by anger after a vote to increase legislative pay.
very good piece on proportional representation democracysos.substack.com/p/imagine-if...
Imagine if Congress was elected by Proportional Representation
Illinois’ 110-yr history with a form of PR resulted in more voter choice, more bipartisanship, less bitter polarization and better representation—a lesson for our times
democracysos.substack.com
December 20, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Fascinating; Illinois had a 110-year history of cumulative voting (a semi-PR system) that got ended by anger after a vote to increase legislative pay.
The law on Epstein redactions:
December 20, 2025 at 2:57 PM
The law on Epstein redactions:
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
Can’t stop thinking about this. The Trump administration is essentially extorting hospitals into dropping gender-affirming care—without Medicare or Medicaid they’d go bankrupt. It’s akin to a backdoor ban even for people with private insurance, a proposal that wouldn’t pass Congress.
Under the proposed rule issued by the Trump Administration today, any Medicare- or Medicaid-participating hospital would be barred from providing gender-affirming care to *any child*, even if the care is not paid for by Medicare or Medicaid.
public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-23465.pdf
public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-23465.pdf
public-inspection.federalregister.gov
December 20, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Can’t stop thinking about this. The Trump administration is essentially extorting hospitals into dropping gender-affirming care—without Medicare or Medicaid they’d go bankrupt. It’s akin to a backdoor ban even for people with private insurance, a proposal that wouldn’t pass Congress.
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
to wit, god damn judgestreetjournal.substack.com/p/i-like-how...
'I Like How Racist Everyone Is': Streamers Flock to the New York Young Republican Gala
WALL ST.
judgestreetjournal.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 5:50 PM
to wit, god damn judgestreetjournal.substack.com/p/i-like-how...
Reposted by E.J. Fagan
Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
December 18, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective?
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported.
Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...