David Burbach 🇺🇸🌹
@dburbach.bsky.social
Prof. National Security and International Relations. Space security, civil-military relations. Cats, science, photography for fun. Providence RI; Oregon at heart! Personal views ONLY; no govt resources used. Assoc Ed @TNSR.org
Pinned
David Burbach 🇺🇸🌹
@dburbach.bsky.social
· Oct 19
My pinned tweet through Presidents of both parties: Sen. Leahy reminds an appointee that federal employees swear an oath to the Constitution, not of personal loyalty to any one man or woman.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlSI...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlSI...
Event betting markets are treated as commodities, insider trading OK, but
1. This is like betting not on future bulk orange juice prices, but "will Sunkist dump salt in their OJ" and Sunkist execs can bet
2. Sucks for Sunkist shareholders when execs motivated by crazy event market payoffs
1. This is like betting not on future bulk orange juice prices, but "will Sunkist dump salt in their OJ" and Sunkist execs can bet
2. Sucks for Sunkist shareholders when execs motivated by crazy event market payoffs
A side story is there’s a ton of insider trading on these prediction markets. New accounts making hundreds of thousands on their first and only trade, that maduro would be ousted. Seems like insider trading is legal if not encouraged on these platforms
January 4, 2026 at 1:53 AM
Event betting markets are treated as commodities, insider trading OK, but
1. This is like betting not on future bulk orange juice prices, but "will Sunkist dump salt in their OJ" and Sunkist execs can bet
2. Sucks for Sunkist shareholders when execs motivated by crazy event market payoffs
1. This is like betting not on future bulk orange juice prices, but "will Sunkist dump salt in their OJ" and Sunkist execs can bet
2. Sucks for Sunkist shareholders when execs motivated by crazy event market payoffs
One reason Trump 1.0 NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine was pretty successful maintaining bipartisan support for NASA, including Biden keeping Artemis, was Bridenstine stayed clear of unnecessary chest-thumping, attack-dog, or controversial political statements
January 4, 2026 at 1:15 AM
One reason Trump 1.0 NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine was pretty successful maintaining bipartisan support for NASA, including Biden keeping Artemis, was Bridenstine stayed clear of unnecessary chest-thumping, attack-dog, or controversial political statements
Fascinating
1. Admin may not have informed Congress but has been talking regime change w US oil industry
2. Oil at $60, US firms not excited about major capex to get VZ heavy sour crude
3. Sounds like WH wants to prod oil firms to make their vision happen, more than WH doing US oil's bidding
1. Admin may not have informed Congress but has been talking regime change w US oil industry
2. Oil at $60, US firms not excited about major capex to get VZ heavy sour crude
3. Sounds like WH wants to prod oil firms to make their vision happen, more than WH doing US oil's bidding
a lot of interesting revelations between the lines of this story www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
January 4, 2026 at 1:07 AM
Fascinating
1. Admin may not have informed Congress but has been talking regime change w US oil industry
2. Oil at $60, US firms not excited about major capex to get VZ heavy sour crude
3. Sounds like WH wants to prod oil firms to make their vision happen, more than WH doing US oil's bidding
1. Admin may not have informed Congress but has been talking regime change w US oil industry
2. Oil at $60, US firms not excited about major capex to get VZ heavy sour crude
3. Sounds like WH wants to prod oil firms to make their vision happen, more than WH doing US oil's bidding
I don't rule out this scenario from @raders.bsky.social , could see it appealing to Trump. Hard to see Rubio liking it as 1) he seems serious about idoleology and 2) expects anti-left domino effect on Nicaragua and Cuba (the real prize) if the Bolivarian govt is seen to be wiped out
January 4, 2026 at 12:41 AM
I don't rule out this scenario from @raders.bsky.social , could see it appealing to Trump. Hard to see Rubio liking it as 1) he seems serious about idoleology and 2) expects anti-left domino effect on Nicaragua and Cuba (the real prize) if the Bolivarian govt is seen to be wiped out
Reposted by David Burbach 🇺🇸🌹
Compare this to Biden leaving Afghanistan & think about what the incentives are for every American politician
everyone on the tv wants you to know that this is good actually
January 4, 2026 at 12:09 AM
Compare this to Biden leaving Afghanistan & think about what the incentives are for every American politician
Either it was a limited operation merely to arrest Maduro and move on, or, it is an ongoing major regime change committment that will open up a transition including international and private sector partners. It really can't be both
January 3, 2026 at 10:35 PM
Either it was a limited operation merely to arrest Maduro and move on, or, it is an ongoing major regime change committment that will open up a transition including international and private sector partners. It really can't be both
Reposted by David Burbach 🇺🇸🌹
These online right wing freaks don't just hate their own country in the abstract. If you are reading this here, they hate *you* specifically. I don't know what our future holds for living with these people, but people should remember that toleration in Europe started behind a sword and a shield.
January 3, 2026 at 9:36 PM
These online right wing freaks don't just hate their own country in the abstract. If you are reading this here, they hate *you* specifically. I don't know what our future holds for living with these people, but people should remember that toleration in Europe started behind a sword and a shield.
Reposted by David Burbach 🇺🇸🌹
These freaks want territorial expansion and they know Trump will do everything he can to deliver.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
January 3, 2026 at 9:22 PM
These freaks want territorial expansion and they know Trump will do everything he can to deliver.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
This isn’t just a tweet from some random asshole either. This is Stephen Miller’s wife. Miller was in the room with Trump during the kidnapping of Maduro.
For gods sake, literalists:
The point was not "wouldn't it be cool?", let alone "the EU can do this"
No, the point was, "Obviously Trump being kidnapped would not amount to US surrender and EU free to impose its will, JUST LIKE IN REALITY Maduro kidnapped =! US in control of Venezuela"
The point was not "wouldn't it be cool?", let alone "the EU can do this"
No, the point was, "Obviously Trump being kidnapped would not amount to US surrender and EU free to impose its will, JUST LIKE IN REALITY Maduro kidnapped =! US in control of Venezuela"
I beg Americans to imagine an EU strike force -- stop laughing! -- abducts Trump only, and the next day Brussels is talking about how JD Vance will have to comply and an A350 full of CEOs from windmill, non-GMO cheese, and metric ruler firms is headed for Manhattan to discuss terms
And there ya have it…
Officials from top Wall Street firms will be traveling to Venezuela to investigate “investment prospects” of the country. “The trip will feature about 20 officials from the finance, energy and defense sectors.”
Officials from top Wall Street firms will be traveling to Venezuela to investigate “investment prospects” of the country. “The trip will feature about 20 officials from the finance, energy and defense sectors.”
January 3, 2026 at 8:32 PM
For gods sake, literalists:
The point was not "wouldn't it be cool?", let alone "the EU can do this"
No, the point was, "Obviously Trump being kidnapped would not amount to US surrender and EU free to impose its will, JUST LIKE IN REALITY Maduro kidnapped =! US in control of Venezuela"
The point was not "wouldn't it be cool?", let alone "the EU can do this"
No, the point was, "Obviously Trump being kidnapped would not amount to US surrender and EU free to impose its will, JUST LIKE IN REALITY Maduro kidnapped =! US in control of Venezuela"
I beg Americans to imagine an EU strike force -- stop laughing! -- abducts Trump only, and the next day Brussels is talking about how JD Vance will have to comply and an A350 full of CEOs from windmill, non-GMO cheese, and metric ruler firms is headed for Manhattan to discuss terms
And there ya have it…
Officials from top Wall Street firms will be traveling to Venezuela to investigate “investment prospects” of the country. “The trip will feature about 20 officials from the finance, energy and defense sectors.”
Officials from top Wall Street firms will be traveling to Venezuela to investigate “investment prospects” of the country. “The trip will feature about 20 officials from the finance, energy and defense sectors.”
Finance Industry Eyes Investment Opportunities in Venezuela
Some on Wall Street are already considering possible investment opportunities in Venezuela following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, according to Charles Myers, chairman of consulting firm Signum Globa...
www.wsj.com
January 3, 2026 at 8:15 PM
I beg Americans to imagine an EU strike force -- stop laughing! -- abducts Trump only, and the next day Brussels is talking about how JD Vance will have to comply and an A350 full of CEOs from windmill, non-GMO cheese, and metric ruler firms is headed for Manhattan to discuss terms
Reposted by David Burbach 🇺🇸🌹
Reposted by David Burbach 🇺🇸🌹
Director of the CIA is in the room but you have OSINTdefender's twitter page up on the screen
January 3, 2026 at 6:35 PM
Director of the CIA is in the room but you have OSINTdefender's twitter page up on the screen
Reposted by David Burbach 🇺🇸🌹
Trump says "people in the military" will be involved in running Venezuela
January 3, 2026 at 5:22 PM
Trump says "people in the military" will be involved in running Venezuela
Not the important thing but a quarter-zip fleece vest with a suit and tie? @dieworkwear.bsky.social
Trump is posting a bunch of photos without captions, presumably of him watching the Maduro kidnapping.
Is this the inside of a SCIF at Mar-a-Lago or did they just toss up some pipe and drape?
Is this the inside of a SCIF at Mar-a-Lago or did they just toss up some pipe and drape?
January 3, 2026 at 6:19 PM
Not the important thing but a quarter-zip fleece vest with a suit and tie? @dieworkwear.bsky.social
OK, I am seriously behind on grading due to all this.
Am going to disconnect, probably for the rest of the weekend.
God save America.
Am going to disconnect, probably for the rest of the weekend.
God save America.
January 3, 2026 at 5:50 PM
OK, I am seriously behind on grading due to all this.
Am going to disconnect, probably for the rest of the weekend.
God save America.
Am going to disconnect, probably for the rest of the weekend.
God save America.
A truly cynical possibility is that we basically have struck a deal with the rump regime in Caracas and we'll pretend they're going to do our bidding in a big way, they'll denounce us, the reality will be modest symbolic change (eg foreign oil investment), and we sell out the democratic opposition
![Trump Says Machado Doesn't Have Respect to Lead Venezuela
By Yash Roy
01/03/2026 12:32:59 [BFW]
(Bloomberg) -- President Trump says Venezuelan Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado does not have the support or respect to lead the country.
• Trump speaks at Florida press conference
• NOTE: Machado Says Venezuela Opposition
Ready to Assume Power](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreid6vpsbn35ws3ykbqfxwlvkzk6jrcysgzuid7glwyroxetk2db32e@jpeg)
January 3, 2026 at 5:44 PM
A truly cynical possibility is that we basically have struck a deal with the rump regime in Caracas and we'll pretend they're going to do our bidding in a big way, they'll denounce us, the reality will be modest symbolic change (eg foreign oil investment), and we sell out the democratic opposition
Going back a very long time, use of force "rally round the flag" approval boosts tend to have a half-life measured in weeks, not months or years.
And they are not as universal or as large on average as many seem to think -- we remember the big ones, forget the fizzles.
And they are not as universal or as large on average as many seem to think -- we remember the big ones, forget the fizzles.
It’s important to note that if there is any increase in approval rating for Trump, it will likely be short lived.
Following Bin Laden’s death in May 2011, Obama got a 7% point boost.
And it lasted only 5 weeks.
news.gallup.com/poll/148046/...
Following Bin Laden’s death in May 2011, Obama got a 7% point boost.
And it lasted only 5 weeks.
news.gallup.com/poll/148046/...
January 3, 2026 at 5:39 PM
Going back a very long time, use of force "rally round the flag" approval boosts tend to have a half-life measured in weeks, not months or years.
And they are not as universal or as large on average as many seem to think -- we remember the big ones, forget the fizzles.
And they are not as universal or as large on average as many seem to think -- we remember the big ones, forget the fizzles.
Well, here's a bit towards an answer? I guess the theory is compellence by threat of massive punishment means the Chavista regime in place will now do US bidding all the way down.
January 3, 2026 at 5:33 PM
Well, here's a bit towards an answer? I guess the theory is compellence by threat of massive punishment means the Chavista regime in place will now do US bidding all the way down.
So is the theory that we'll fly 747 from Miami to Caracas in a week or two and everyone actually in power there is supposed to quietly hand over the keys and email passwords to our new guys, on acccount of "having been defeated" or something?
"we're designating various people and we'll let you know who those people are."
January 3, 2026 at 5:24 PM
So is the theory that we'll fly 747 from Miami to Caracas in a week or two and everyone actually in power there is supposed to quietly hand over the keys and email passwords to our new guys, on acccount of "having been defeated" or something?
The general tone of my feed right now
January 3, 2026 at 5:19 PM
The general tone of my feed right now
Trump explaining how the U.S. occupation is running things in Venezuela now
January 3, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Trump explaining how the U.S. occupation is running things in Venezuela now
Even @danlamothe.bsky.social 's question skips step: security for whom? We took away one guy, all the other regime officials and military commanders are there in their jobs just like they were yesterday. There wasn't a pro-US change of govt, there sure isnt a CPA or US State people on the ground
Trump’s remarks that the United States will need to “run” Venezuela immediately raise questions whether he will order U.S. military deployments to provide security. Such operations have a history of being unpredictable and dangerous for U.S. forces involved.
January 3, 2026 at 5:03 PM
Even @danlamothe.bsky.social 's question skips step: security for whom? We took away one guy, all the other regime officials and military commanders are there in their jobs just like they were yesterday. There wasn't a pro-US change of govt, there sure isnt a CPA or US State people on the ground
This is like announcing details of how the U.S. occupation of Japan is going the day after the Doolittle Raid. Seriously what the heck?
Veteran New York Times national security reporter David Sanger says what Trump is describing in Venezuela is an "American occupation."
January 3, 2026 at 4:57 PM
This is like announcing details of how the U.S. occupation of Japan is going the day after the Doolittle Raid. Seriously what the heck?
What in the world? We sent in a dozen (ish?) helicopters, which promptly left. Maduro's VP is giving press conferences. In no way is the US "running" Venuezuela.
So is a serious invasion coming or are we just going to make-believe the whole thing?
So is a serious invasion coming or are we just going to make-believe the whole thing?
TRUMP on Venezuela: "We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition."
January 3, 2026 at 4:52 PM
What in the world? We sent in a dozen (ish?) helicopters, which promptly left. Maduro's VP is giving press conferences. In no way is the US "running" Venuezuela.
So is a serious invasion coming or are we just going to make-believe the whole thing?
So is a serious invasion coming or are we just going to make-believe the whole thing?