Paul Graf
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paulginva.bsky.social
Paul Graf
@paulginva.bsky.social
4.3K followers 1.9K following 13K posts
Retired lawyer. Moderate. Dog lover, cat tolerator. Grandfather. Vietnam vet. History, international relations, national security, high-profile litigation, economics, and a little politics.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · Jul 31
𝘏𝘶𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘸𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘧 𝘢 𝘧𝘳𝘦𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦. 𝘈 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘶𝘦𝘭 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘵𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩. –𝘍𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘬𝘭𝘪𝘯 𝘋. 𝘙𝘰𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘵
paulginva.bsky.social
From the file "Things I Never Thought I'd See".
Shayan X @ShayanX0 1h ... BREAKING - Gen Z Iranian protesters in Mashhad, Iran's second-largest city, are flooding the streets, chanting: "This is the final battle, Pahlavi will return!" in support of Iran's exiled Shah and National Leader, His Majesty Reza Shah Pahlavi II [ @PahlaviReza].
January 4, 2026 at 2:21 AM
paulginva.bsky.social
😂😂😂
The text you provided appears to be a fictional product review section for the S-300 Defense System, a real-world, long-range surface-to-air missile system developed by the former Soviet Union and Russia. The reviews from Ali Khamenei and Nicolás Maduro refer to the system in the context of actual events and geopolitical discussions, rather than a commercial online store.
January 4, 2026 at 2:07 AM
paulginva.bsky.social
Admiral (ret.) Laubacher, who is running against Lauren Boebert for Colorado's 4th congressional district, seems to have put it about right.
Rear Admiral Eileen Laubacher @EileenforCO After 34 years in the Navy and service to this country, I know there are times the United States military must act. I also know how dangerous it is to our service members for the president to even suggest we might put boots on the ground. Detaining a foreign leader and vowing to "run" a country will put our troops in danger, embolden our enemies, and won't help Americans here at home. Right now Trump and his yes men in D.C. can't even run our own country's economy, let alone countries around the world.
January 4, 2026 at 1:43 AM
paulginva.bsky.social
Mike Madrid does a deep dive into what today might mean to Latino voters:

Thread: threadreaderapp.com/thread/20075...
Mike Madrid @madrid_mike Venezuelans make up a very small portion of the total U.S. Latino electorate, accounting for approximately 1% of the U.S. Hispanic population as of 2021 data. As for voters it's probably half a percent above or below that - most of it located in Florida. 4:25 PM Jan 3, 2026 8,638 Views
January 4, 2026 at 1:15 AM
paulginva.bsky.social
These two people are a treasure!
January 4, 2026 at 12:57 AM
paulginva.bsky.social
Well, this explains a lot.
Lars Christensen @MaMoMVPY Follow Q This is completely unreported. It is an internal coup. I believe it will very soon become clear that Maduro's vice president Delcy Rodríguez (@delcyrodriguezv) has made a deal with the Americans. That's why it was possible for the Americans to capture Maduro so easily - Delcy Rodríguez simply betrayed him and made a backroom deal with the Americans that she becomes the new president. Trump mentioned it explicitly at the press conference just held, but none of the journalists caught it. X This means the regime still holds power-and yes, this may also be the deal Trump has made with Putin. It is NOT regime change. And there is no democracy. Maduro is out, but the regime remains. And Delcy Rodríguez's payment: Venezuela's oil goes to Trump and perhaps Putin. The leader of Venezuela's democratic opposition, María Corina Machado @MariaCorinaYA, can forget about returning to Venezuela-and forget about democracy. It honestly feels rather Vichy-like. The image shows a social media post by Klarna co-founder and CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski, who is tracking a private jet on Flightradar24 that he believes is carrying Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez back to Caracas after the alleged capture of President Nicolás Maduro. The flight, with tail number T7102X, is shown traveling from Porlamar (PMV) to Caracas (CCS), Venezuela. The context provided in the image and search results suggests a period of significant political tension in Venezuela, possibly involving a change in presidential power and international involvement. Delcy Rodríguez has been Venezuela's vice president since 2018 and has been sanctioned by several countries, including the US and the EU, for actions related to undermining democracy and for corruption. Aircraft associated with her and other high-ranking officials have previously been seized by US authorities.
January 4, 2026 at 12:23 AM
paulginva.bsky.social
Trump 2016: “We cannot be the policemen of the world.”

Trump 2020: “We are NOT the policemen of the world.”

Trump 2026: “We made an arrest in Venezuela … and we are ready to stage a second, and much larger, attack.”
January 4, 2026 at 12:02 AM
paulginva.bsky.social
They had random Twitter OSINT accounts running in the background during the attack on Venezuela. Surreal.
This image captures a pivotal moment in the US operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The photo, released by Donald Trump on social media, shows key US officials monitoring the situation. From left to right are Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump. The operation was planned by a core group of top US officials, including those pictured. The US military launched the operation shortly before 11pm on a Friday to capture Maduro. Maduro was subsequently taken by helicopter to the USS Iwo Jima.
January 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM
paulginva.bsky.social
Wait! MAGA thinks taking out Maduro means this is over? They think he ran a country twice the size of Texas by himself so it’s all good now? Did any of them pay attention in history class or even watch damn news for the last 25 years?

No. It’s not over. We just lit a fuse.
January 3, 2026 at 11:57 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
It's not just the filming without consent that's a threat. Say I'm walking down the street with my XR glasses. I see you. You're just my type. I get you lined up on the screen and query the AI, "Who is this?" Tell me everything about her." Up pops your name, address, phone number, etc.
Meta smart glasses pose a threat to women, campaigners say
Reports of covert filming have prompted privacy fears as experts are concerned that the devices would be altered to ‘nudify’ women without their consent
www.thetimes.com
January 3, 2026 at 11:56 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Katie Miller wants her podcast to be a "friendly and welcoming" place for MAGA Moms. Other possible names:
• Katie's Kozy Klan Korner
• Swastikas 'N Things
• Good Morning, White America
• Why My Marriage Is A Science Experiment
• The CBS Evening News
The image shows Katie Miller launching her new media venture, "The Katie Miller Podcast". The podcast is aimed at conservative women, offering lifestyle information and news. Miller previously worked as an aide in both Trump administrations and recently left a full-time position working for Elon Musk. She stated that for the "MAGA" movement and President Trump's legacy to grow, it is important to communicate with conservative women.
January 3, 2026 at 11:15 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Ms. Miller, shouldn't you be doing the laundry or scrubbing the floors or doing the dishes or making Half-Pint Himmler's dinner instead of worrying your little head about things that, as a traditional wife, you couldn't possibly understand?
This image is a social media post from January 3, 2026, depicting a map of Greenland overlaid with the U.S. flag, referencing the proposed United States acquisition of Greenland. The map shows Greenland's major physical features, including the massive Greenland Ice Sheet, which covers over four-fifths of its total land area. Greenland is the world's largest island, but it is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. The island holds significant geopolitical importance due to its strategic location in the Arctic and its rich natural resources, including critical minerals. The U.S. currently operates Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, a key military installation for missile early warning and space surveillance.
January 3, 2026 at 11:11 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Trump being impeached is the moderate, centrist position.
January 3, 2026 at 10:24 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
When Catturd shows he's smarter than ~98% of Republican officeholders....
Catturd TM @catturd2 X.com Name one U.S. inspired regime change that hasn't ended in absolute disaster.
January 3, 2026 at 10:12 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
The script never changes.
This is a political cartoon by Dan Painter, published in late 2025, that draws a parallel between the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and a potential future US intervention in Venezuela. The top panel shows former President George W. Bush in 2003, claiming Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. The bottom panel depicts President Donald Trump in 2025, claiming Venezuela "has drugs". The cartoon suggests a pattern of US leaders using specific justifications to potentially initiate foreign interventions. It implies that the 2025 situation regarding Venezuela echoes the geopolitical strategies seen in the Iraq War.
January 3, 2026 at 10:07 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Someone knew what was coming.
The image displays a series of social media posts discussing a Polymarket user who made a significant profit by betting on Nicolás Maduro's exit from power, potentially using insider information. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users can bet on the outcomes of future events, such as politics and current affairs. A new account on the platform placed a bet of over $30,000 on "Maduro out by January 31, 2026?". The user reportedly profited over $400,000 in less than 24 hours when the event occurred. The posts suggest this outcome may be related to "war related insider trading," as the US took Maduro into custody shortly after the bet.
January 3, 2026 at 9:43 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Here's what WaPo's Editorial Board should have said.
January 3, 2026 After months of military buildup in the region, on January 3, 2026, the U.S. armed forces conducted strikes on multiple targets in Venezuela, and President Trump announced the capture and extraction of Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The number of people injured and killed during this operation is yet unknown. The Trump administration carried out the strike without the authorization of the U.S. Congress and in violation of limits on the president's constitutional war powers. The U.S. actions also violate international law. There appears to be no legitimate claim of self-defense on the part of the U.S. For years, the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) has promoted a U.S. policy towards Venezuela based on human rights principles, while condemning the abuses of Nicolás Maduro's authoritarian government. On July 28, 2024, Venezuelans overwhelmingly voted for a democratic change, but their will was ignored by Nicolás Maduro, who unlawfully remained in power and launched an extensive campaign of repression. Venezuela remains the only country in the Americas with an open investigation before the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, and there are dozens of investigations into grand corruption. The country continues to experience a complex humanitarian emergency. Venezuelans deserve a peaceful transition to democracy and respect for their fundamental rights. Nonetheless, unilateral U.S. military action, in violation of standards that have guided the international order for nearly a century, is reckless and dangerous. Since the September 2, 2025, strike on a boat alleged to be smuggling drugs, WOLA has denounced the 32 U.S. military attacks and at least 115 deaths in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, which amount to extrajudicial killings and to unjustified unilateral use of lethal force. We have provided evidence-based information that debunks many of the claims made by the Trump administration to justify these actions as part of a counter-narcotics operation. The most recent U.S. actions create a worrisome precedent for the region. The UN Secretary-General, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, and multiple governments worldwide have raised alarm about the actions of the Trump administration, which could further generate regional polarization and unrest. It is essential that efforts from Venezuelans and the international community now focus on de-escalating tensions, protecting civilians, and producing a peaceful and democratic transition. Venezuelan de facto authorities must respect the lives and integrity of Venezuelan civil society, respect the right to peaceful protest, and respect the physical integrity-and release unconditionally-the hundreds of political prisoners held in government custody. The Trump administration's return to gunboat diplomacy and disregard for international law damages U.S. standing globally and alienates important allies. WOLA calls on the administration to end these unilateral actions and support a negotiation process centered on the rights of Venezuelans and on democracy. The U.S. Congress should reassert its power to authorize the use of lethal force and demand immediate answers about the implications of the administration's military actions for human rights, democracy, and the future of U.S. foreign policy in the region.
January 3, 2026 at 9:41 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
The image is a meme mimicking the cover art style of the Now That's What I Call Music! compilation albums. The text on the image is a satirical comment on current events, suggesting that some major news item is serving as a distraction from the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. The text reads: "NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL A DISTRACTION FROM THE EPSTEIN FILES" The image style is a parody of the Now That's What I Call Music! album covers. It is a satirical commentary on media coverage and the timing of news events relative to the Epstein documents.
January 3, 2026 at 9:31 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Written in June of last year, shortly after the US bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, this piece from CSIS seems to have been fairly predictive.
Events in one theater of the world occasionally provide analysts with opportunities to reflect and update their assumptions once considered axiomatic about a different theater of the world. The past six months in the Middle East have provided Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba watchers with several dramatic moments to reconsider basic assumptions-specifically, about regime security vs. mutual assistance. Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's dramatic fall at the end of 2024 and Israel's spectacular campaign against the infrastructure of Iran's nuclear program challenge the basic assumptions of those who assess Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba as ultimately backstopped by a network of fellow authoritarians. More recently, the Trump administration's strikes, part of Operation Midnight Hammer, on Iran's most hardened nuclear facilities throw into serious doubt the commitment of Moscow and Beijing to the survival of the Maduro, Ortega, and Díaz-Canel regimes. More distant, beleaguered, and distracted with objectives much more foundational to their core national interests, China and Russia (and now Iran), ultimately may not serve the role that is traditionally assumed-the white knights ready to ride to the rescue of their authoritarian ilk in Latin America. And if analysts in Washington can arrive at this conclusion, certainly Maduro in Caracas, Ortega in Managua, and Díaz-Canel in Havana can too. Indeed, what is abundantly clear from the Syrian and now the Iranian cases is how little effort Moscow and Beijing have put into intervening to stop attacks on Iran (and possibly the eventual downfall of the regime), despite the obvious stakes Moscow and Beijing have in the Iranian regime's survival. With arguably less at stake in the survival of Maduro, Ortega, and Díaz-Canel, can Latin America watchers be sure Moscow and Beijing would ride to the rescue? Events in the Middle East require that Latin America watchers revisit assumptions regarding regime security and instead focus on t…
January 3, 2026 at 8:36 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
WaPo's Editorial Board has been a cheerleader for every quagmire the US has jumped into since ... well, since it became a major national newspaper, and this time, they really have outdone themselves. Here's the last paragraph of their editorial:
With tough decisions coming and many obstacles ahead, it's fair to look forward. Yet it's also fair to celebrate. For years, Maduro was a symbol of the false warmth of Latin American collectivism. Now he should spend the rest of his life in a humane American prison. His downfall is good news.
January 3, 2026 at 8:14 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Trump announced that "we" are now "going to run the country" of Venezuela until some "proper transition" takes place, so how exactly are "we" going to “run” Venezuela? Is this like a remote work situation? Did Rubio just get a fifth job? Is there another Fox host looking to make a change?
January 3, 2026 at 7:59 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
I slept through the press conference, but I think I have the gist of it:
• The oil will pay for the operation
• Standing up a government will be pretty easy
• It's vital to take on threats around us before they harm us at home
• The people will great us as liberators

Did I wake up in 2002 or 2026?
January 3, 2026 at 7:51 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
The speed at which people are pivoting from daycare fraud experts to geopolitical analysts is breathtaking.
January 3, 2026 at 4:36 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
The dead Russian paratroopers from Hostomel Airport seeing the U.S. conduct a successful 3 hour heliborne special military operation.
This image shows a popular internet meme format, often referred to as the "Ascension" or "Glow Up" meme. The image typically depicts a person's reaction in a moment of clarity or realization. The bright lighting and upward gaze suggest a feeling of spiritual awakening or enlightenment. It is frequently used in online communities and forums, such as Reddit, to express a new perspective or a sudden understanding of a situation. The meme's humor often comes from applying this "enlightenment" to mundane or humorous situations.
January 3, 2026 at 2:56 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
When I logged in this morning, there were a couple of trending topics relating to Venezuela. Both of them were heavy on people hyperventilating heavily with accusations of imperialism and invasion and predictions that Greenland is next, then Canada. Unhelpful to someone like me, who's just looking
Live Updates: U.S. Captures Venezuelan Leader, Trump Says
www.nytimes.com
January 3, 2026 at 1:56 PM