John Kastellec
@jkastellec.bsky.social
Professor of Politics at Princeton University @Princeton . http://www.makingthesupremecourt.com
Should be illegal to make a graph about American politics where red/blue does not map to party ID.
October 12, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Should be illegal to make a graph about American politics where red/blue does not map to party ID.
This might be my favorite graph in "Making the Supreme Court," not least because it easily dispels the notion that BORK CHANGED EVERYTHING.
August 13, 2025 at 7:36 PM
This might be my favorite graph in "Making the Supreme Court," not least because it easily dispels the notion that BORK CHANGED EVERYTHING.
July 17, 2025 at 2:46 PM
In the paper we update our projections for the ideological trajectory of the Supreme Court. Trump's victory in 2024 further solidifies the likelihood of conservative control of the Court for several decades.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
June 16, 2025 at 2:16 PM
In the paper we update our projections for the ideological trajectory of the Supreme Court. Trump's victory in 2024 further solidifies the likelihood of conservative control of the Court for several decades.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
My paper, "The Supreme Court: How Did We Get Here? And What Comes Next?", co-authored with Chuck Cameron, is now available in The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
June 16, 2025 at 2:13 PM
My paper, "The Supreme Court: How Did We Get Here? And What Comes Next?", co-authored with Chuck Cameron, is now available in The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
Stevens and Souter voted similarly during their overlap years on the Court. Their back-to-back exits in 2009 and 2010 solidified the perfect partisan sort on the Court.
May 9, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Stevens and Souter voted similarly during their overlap years on the Court. Their back-to-back exits in 2009 and 2010 solidified the perfect partisan sort on the Court.
April 23, 2025 at 3:07 PM
They might also note her voting record is relatively moderate among Democratic members ...
March 21, 2025 at 9:28 PM
They might also note her voting record is relatively moderate among Democratic members ...
My paper, "Mass Versus Donor Attitudes on the Importance of Supreme Court Nominations," (co-authored with Brandice Canes-Wrone and Nicolas Studen) is now available at @apsrjournal.bsky.social
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
March 18, 2025 at 1:07 PM
My paper, "Mass Versus Donor Attitudes on the Importance of Supreme Court Nominations," (co-authored with Brandice Canes-Wrone and Nicolas Studen) is now available at @apsrjournal.bsky.social
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Given all that's happening at the moment, feels like there's general uncertainty for all U.S. citizens as how to answer this question from APSA regarding attending the annual meeting in Vancouver in September.
March 11, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Given all that's happening at the moment, feels like there's general uncertainty for all U.S. citizens as how to answer this question from APSA regarding attending the annual meeting in Vancouver in September.
Less consequential but still wild: James Byrnes (appointed in 1941) did not have a law degree--the last such nominee. (This graphs summarizes the changing background of nominees from 1930 to 2020, and shows the decline of politicians on the Court ...)
February 21, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Less consequential but still wild: James Byrnes (appointed in 1941) did not have a law degree--the last such nominee. (This graphs summarizes the changing background of nominees from 1930 to 2020, and shows the decline of politicians on the Court ...)
Teaching Mayhew on Monday ...
February 7, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Teaching Mayhew on Monday ...
I don't know. The cliche of "neither force nor will" seems exactly right ...
February 6, 2025 at 3:32 PM
I don't know. The cliche of "neither force nor will" seems exactly right ...
Cry me a river ...
December 3, 2024 at 1:55 PM
Cry me a river ...
Of course, predicting the future decades out is dicy, and strange things happen all the time. But barring something unexpected, or some institutional reform for selecting and/or retaining justices, conservatives are likely to control the Court for many decades.
November 15, 2024 at 2:59 PM
Of course, predicting the future decades out is dicy, and strange things happen all the time. But barring something unexpected, or some institutional reform for selecting and/or retaining justices, conservatives are likely to control the Court for many decades.
In the book, we present the results based on the Court as of 2021. The left plot here shows this scenario--Trump's election plus his 3 appointments (probabilistically) locked in a conservative court until at least the 2050s. The right plot shows the counterfactual where Clinton won in 2016 .
November 15, 2024 at 2:59 PM
In the book, we present the results based on the Court as of 2021. The left plot here shows this scenario--Trump's election plus his 3 appointments (probabilistically) locked in a conservative court until at least the 2050s. The right plot shows the counterfactual where Clinton won in 2016 .
What effect did the 2024 elections have on the future ideological trajectory of the Supreme Court? This graph summarizes the predicted ideology of the median justice by decade. Under some reasonable assumptions, conservative justices are now likely to control for several decades (details follow).
November 15, 2024 at 2:59 PM
What effect did the 2024 elections have on the future ideological trajectory of the Supreme Court? This graph summarizes the predicted ideology of the median justice by decade. Under some reasonable assumptions, conservative justices are now likely to control for several decades (details follow).
I think some Democratic consultants may need to be taken off the payroll ...
November 12, 2024 at 6:51 PM
I think some Democratic consultants may need to be taken off the payroll ...
Just outright embarrassing.
November 10, 2024 at 6:56 PM
Just outright embarrassing.