Matt Grossmann
@mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Michigan State political scientist & IPPSR Director; Hooked bookstore/cafe Co-owner; Science of Politics Podcast; New book: Polarized by Degrees
Political science
59%
Business
20%
The Politics of AI
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
Democrats use AI more than Republicans, but it is due to education, industry, and occupation
www.nber.org/papers/w34813
www.nber.org/papers/w34813
University of Chicago Press Journals: Cookie absent
www.journals.uchicago.edu
Empirical evidence on concentration, markups, and mergers does not show a widespread decline in US competition
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....
Tenure Eliminated at Oklahoma Colleges
Regional and community college professors will no longer receive tenure; research university faculty are spared, with some exceptions.
www.insidehighered.com
Oklahoma governor is eliminating new tenure at public universities & colleges other than Oklahoma & OK State:
www.insidehighered.com/news/faculty...
These universities will operate with existing tenured faculty but current assistants will be converted to fixed-term; regents still have to accept
www.insidehighered.com/news/faculty...
These universities will operate with existing tenured faculty but current assistants will be converted to fixed-term; regents still have to accept
So few new legal constraints on admin trying it bigger this year. Constraints are mostly political: avoid unpopular actions in an election year with opinion moving against you. Hiring & grant activity will be early tells; have $ to ramp back up but want to avoid.
Lost in the ICE battles is that the parties agreed on government funding levels & provisions. Dems did not win any real constraints on recessions or DOGE-style actions and implicitly OKd some admin restructuring. But Reps did not win any real $ shifts to match Trump budget.
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
New @niskanencenter.bsky.social pod with @mattgrossmann.bsky.social discussing our most recent Bright Line Watch report (brightlinewatch.org/america-look...) and threats to democracy in a second Trump term www.niskanencenter.org/threats-to-d...
Threats to democracy in the 2nd Trump administration - Niskanen Center
Trump has promised to remake the federal bureaucracy in his own image and go after his political opponents and the media in his 2nd administration. But there are signals that public protest and civil ...
www.niskanencenter.org
Re-assessing my Jan. 2025 pod with @mattgrossmann.bsky.social
✔️ Jan 6 pardons
✔️ Subdued opposition but eventual rally
✔️ Wield DOJ vs. enemies
✔️ Chilling effects of DOJ abuse
✔️ High-profile firings
✔️ Mass deportation
✔️ Challenge elections in future
❌ didn't foresee DOGE
❌ didn't foresee ICE/CBP $$$
✔️ Jan 6 pardons
✔️ Subdued opposition but eventual rally
✔️ Wield DOJ vs. enemies
✔️ Chilling effects of DOJ abuse
✔️ High-profile firings
✔️ Mass deportation
✔️ Challenge elections in future
❌ didn't foresee DOGE
❌ didn't foresee ICE/CBP $$$
DOGE & early shock & awe may have helped congress acquiescence in some cases (USAID, CFPB) but led to backlash in others (NIH) or little change (Ed). Where goal was reduced capacity (IRS & CFPB), easy for lower staff to = retrenchment. But unclear what will survive divided gov
Other big spending changes were approved by Congress: CFPB & IRS cuts & ICE increases were in OBBBA. USAID move was implicitly OKd in latest spending deal, though program funding remains. Multi-year NIG grants compromised. So won concessions in Congress deals, but lost others
Need update on spending power moving from Congress to President. Personnel reductions, partly through incentives, are large & presidentialized. But still spent more $ last year & Congress has reversed most planned $ cuts (including NIH & Ed). Agencies lose capacity but not funds
Congress Reaches Agreement on FY26 International Affairs Spending – USGLC
Read USGLC’s FY26 International Affairs Budget Analysis on the final bipartisan NSRP appropriations deal, with topline funding totals and program level breakdowns for diplomacy, development, global he...
www.usglc.org
So for USAID, they cut to the operating expenses account 93%, which implicitly accepts the move of USAID to State. That seems to be more acceptance than happened at the Dept of Education, where the staff was cut in half but the funding for operating staff remains.
www.usglc.org/the-budget/c...
www.usglc.org/the-budget/c...
Congress Has Passed an Education Budget. See How Key Programs Are Affected
Federal funding for low-income students and special education will remain level year over year.
www.edweek.org
The Education Department budget also largely rejects proposed cuts & allocates funds for staffing, IES, & admin but doesn't appear to have additional sticks for stopping administration reorganization efforts:
www.edweek.org/policy-polit...
Any explanations of leeway compared to 2025?
www.edweek.org/policy-polit...
Any explanations of leeway compared to 2025?
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
Republican governors show higher levels of populist rhetoric than Democrats, but this difference predates Trump’s presidency and shows no evidence of intensifying following his first election.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...