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mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann
@mattgrossmann.bsky.social
12K followers 170 following 1.6K posts

Michigan State political scientist & IPPSR Director; Hooked bookstore/cafe Co-owner; Science of Politics Podcast; New book: Polarized by Degrees

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mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 11h
I'm not sure why there would be another shutdown at end of January. Some Dems have learned they are unlikely to get anything out of it & others have learned that their members will cave in the end (which means the same outcome).

Reposted by Matt Grossmann

Reposted by Matthew Søberg Shugart, Matt Grossmann

mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 1d
The shutdown didn't achieve anything. We were not particularly close to ending the filibuster or funding ACA subsidies, just a longer shutdown. But instigating parties don't usually learn from failure because the argument is always that you could have fought harder & longer.

Reposted by Steven S. Taylor

mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 1d
The PR was fine. The polling was good. The ask was targeted. And it still didn't matter. You can't win real concessions so the question is whether the base likes a long fight with little to show for it or if it just angers them more because you caved in the end.
mattgrossmann.bsky.social Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · Sep 7
Shutting down is the easy part, starting up on your terms very hard. Maybe a lost shutdown fight would bring catharsis, but last time (DACA in 2018) it angered base & public because it was fruitless. Ask would need to be something Rep lawmakers want, not stop all Trump is doing

mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 5d
Exit polls & initial voter data agree that differential partisan turnout is a, but not the main, factor driving VA & NJ results:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/u...
I would instead infer that (1) is overstated. It doesn't take many swing voters to shift aggregate outcomes when they move the same way (2)
Democrats Won Big Because They Won Over Trump Supporters
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Scott L. Greer, Robert C. Richards , and 1 more

mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 5d
Immigration-driven diversity increases innovation
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History | Journal of Political Economy: Vol 0, No ja
www.journals.uchicago.edu

mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 5d
As usual, the 2025 elections featured both a partisan turnout advantage & swing voters (including Hispanics) moving against the party of the president. Initial evidence from VA & NJ show most change came from swing voting (as is normal):
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/u...
Democrats Won Big Because They Won Over Trump Supporters
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Matthew Søberg Shugart

mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 5d
You can apply to be the Associate Director of @IPPSR here, joining me in all our endeavors (when I return from sabbatical):
careers.msu.edu/jobs/special...
Specialist - Outreach-Fixed Term - East Lansing, Michigan, United States
Position Summary Michigan State University actively promotes a dynamic research and learning environment in which qualified individuals of differing perspectives, and cultural backgrounds pursue acade...
careers.msu.edu

Reposted by Matt Grossmann

mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 5d
Thermostatic backlash in elections stems from both 1) general incumbent dissatisfaction / responsibility for conditions & 2) response to policy overshooting & ideological direction. It often takes the form of both 1) swing voting & 2) differential turnout
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com

mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 6d
Election results showed a nationalized thermostatic backlash against the party of the president, similar to 1st Trump term but with even smaller candidate & issue effects & regardless of turnout.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Reposted by Matt Grossmann

gelliottmorris.com
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 6d
dem margin in 2025 statewide races vs 2024 pres
NJ and VA identical curves
PA and GA much higher (PA here is the partisan statewide Commonwealth Court race)

Reposted by Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan

mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 8d
cultural over economic coverage on cable news mobilizes viewers who would otherwise watch entertainment programming, so cable news emphasizes cultural politics much more than politicians trying to maximize vote share
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...

Reposted by Matt Grossmann

Reposted by David Brady, Mary Feeney, David Darmofal

mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 10d
Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, college–noncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....