Matt Grossmann
@mattgrossmann.bsky.social
Michigan State political scientist & IPPSR Director; Hooked bookstore/cafe Co-owner; Science of Politics Podcast; New book: Polarized by Degrees
I'm not sure why there would be another shutdown at end of January. Some Dems have learned they are unlikely to get anything out of it & others have learned that their members will cave in the end (which means the same outcome).
November 11, 2025 at 3:03 AM
I'm not sure why there would be another shutdown at end of January. Some Dems have learned they are unlikely to get anything out of it & others have learned that their members will cave in the end (which means the same outcome).
The PR was fine. The polling was good. The ask was targeted. And it still didn't matter. You can't win real concessions so the question is whether the base likes a long fight with little to show for it or if it just angers them more because you caved in the end.
Shutting down is the easy part, starting up on your terms very hard. Maybe a lost shutdown fight would bring catharsis, but last time (DACA in 2018) it angered base & public because it was fruitless. Ask would need to be something Rep lawmakers want, not stop all Trump is doing
November 10, 2025 at 3:55 AM
The PR was fine. The polling was good. The ask was targeted. And it still didn't matter. You can't win real concessions so the question is whether the base likes a long fight with little to show for it or if it just angers them more because you caved in the end.
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
Dem voters also favored a shutdown & thought Republicans would be blamed (though more narrowly) last time they forced one (over DACA in Jan 2018):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/p...
But most said it was not worth it afterward (because they did not win anything):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/p...
www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/p...
But most said it was not worth it afterward (because they did not win anything):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/p...
CNN poll: DACA not worth a shutdown, except to Democrats | CNN Politics
With hours to go before a midnight deadline for Congress to fund the government or shut it down, most Americans say avoiding a shutdown is more important than passing a bill to maintain the program al...
www.cnn.com
September 17, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Dem voters also favored a shutdown & thought Republicans would be blamed (though more narrowly) last time they forced one (over DACA in Jan 2018):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/p...
But most said it was not worth it afterward (because they did not win anything):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/p...
www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/p...
But most said it was not worth it afterward (because they did not win anything):
www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/p...
Immigration-driven diversity increases innovation
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History | Journal of Political Economy: Vol 0, No ja
www.journals.uchicago.edu
November 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Immigration-driven diversity increases innovation
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
How Cultural Diversity Drives Innovation: Surnames and Patents in U.S. History
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
You can apply to be the Associate Director of @IPPSR here, joining me in all our endeavors (when I return from sabbatical):
careers.msu.edu/jobs/special...
careers.msu.edu/jobs/special...
Specialist - Outreach-Fixed Term - East Lansing, Michigan, United States
Position Summary
Michigan State University actively promotes a dynamic research and learning environment in which qualified individuals of differing perspectives, and cultural backgrounds pursue acade...
careers.msu.edu
November 6, 2025 at 1:55 PM
You can apply to be the Associate Director of @IPPSR here, joining me in all our endeavors (when I return from sabbatical):
careers.msu.edu/jobs/special...
careers.msu.edu/jobs/special...
Thermostatic backlash in elections stems from both 1) general incumbent dissatisfaction / responsibility for conditions & 2) response to policy overshooting & ideological direction. It often takes the form of both 1) swing voting & 2) differential turnout
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
November 5, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Thermostatic backlash in elections stems from both 1) general incumbent dissatisfaction / responsibility for conditions & 2) response to policy overshooting & ideological direction. It often takes the form of both 1) swing voting & 2) differential turnout
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Election results showed a nationalized thermostatic backlash against the party of the president, similar to 1st Trump term but with even smaller candidate & issue effects & regardless of turnout.
November 5, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Election results showed a nationalized thermostatic backlash against the party of the president, similar to 1st Trump term but with even smaller candidate & issue effects & regardless of turnout.
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
dem margin in 2025 statewide races vs 2024 pres
NJ and VA identical curves
PA and GA much higher (PA here is the partisan statewide Commonwealth Court race)
NJ and VA identical curves
PA and GA much higher (PA here is the partisan statewide Commonwealth Court race)
November 5, 2025 at 5:36 AM
dem margin in 2025 statewide races vs 2024 pres
NJ and VA identical curves
PA and GA much higher (PA here is the partisan statewide Commonwealth Court race)
NJ and VA identical curves
PA and GA much higher (PA here is the partisan statewide Commonwealth Court race)
cultural over economic coverage on cable news mobilizes viewers who would otherwise watch entertainment programming, so cable news emphasizes cultural politics much more than politicians trying to maximize vote share
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
November 2, 2025 at 3:29 PM
cultural over economic coverage on cable news mobilizes viewers who would otherwise watch entertainment programming, so cable news emphasizes cultural politics much more than politicians trying to maximize vote share
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, college–noncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
November 1, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, college–noncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Union members have polarized by education level, with non-college members now less affected by their union membership. Union members have maintained their Democratic partisanship only by becoming more educated over time
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
October 31, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Union members have polarized by education level, with non-college members now less affected by their union membership. Union members have maintained their Democratic partisanship only by becoming more educated over time
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
But that's just variance. Everyone wants to know about average bias. Here it is. Polls in the last two weeks of the campaign overstated Democratic margins by 2.7 points across all offices—smaller than the 4.6-point overestimate in 2020 and 3.1 points in 2016. But that's a Dem bias 3 cycles in a row.
October 29, 2025 at 8:24 PM
But that's just variance. Everyone wants to know about average bias. Here it is. Polls in the last two weeks of the campaign overstated Democratic margins by 2.7 points across all offices—smaller than the 4.6-point overestimate in 2020 and 3.1 points in 2016. But that's a Dem bias 3 cycles in a row.
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
October 29, 2025 at 8:16 PM
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Matt Grossmann
Big thanks to @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for the invitation to discuss my new book!
How the Money Chase Governs our Elections
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
How the money chase governs our elections - Niskanen Center
Danielle Thomsen finds that candidates are raising money earlier and in larger amounts than ever.
www.niskanencenter.org
October 30, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Big thanks to @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for the invitation to discuss my new book!
New review of Polarized by Degrees as a book of the political moment:
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
Matt Grossman and David A. Hopkins. Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics
Every so often, a book emerges just in time to capture and define a political transformation as it breaks into mainstream consciousness. E. J. Dionne’s Why
academic.oup.com
October 29, 2025 at 8:03 PM
New review of Polarized by Degrees as a book of the political moment:
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
How the Money Chase Governs our Elections
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
How the money chase governs our elections - Niskanen Center
Danielle Thomsen finds that candidates are raising money earlier and in larger amounts than ever.
www.niskanencenter.org
October 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM
How the Money Chase Governs our Elections
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
Early $ still governs who runs, who lasts, & who rises in Congress, even though it's often spent just to raise more
@daniellethomsen.bsky.social on The Money Signal on the #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-the-mone...
1) It is now harder for Dem candidates to differentiate themselves from the national Dem brand & ideology is only 1 among a few things making vanishingly small differences
2) Ideology & issue focus of national Dem brand is harder to move, given party network, media, & Rep attacks
2) Ideology & issue focus of national Dem brand is harder to move, given party network, media, & Rep attacks
October 29, 2025 at 5:05 PM
1) It is now harder for Dem candidates to differentiate themselves from the national Dem brand & ideology is only 1 among a few things making vanishingly small differences
2) Ideology & issue focus of national Dem brand is harder to move, given party network, media, & Rep attacks
2) Ideology & issue focus of national Dem brand is harder to move, given party network, media, & Rep attacks
preferences for redistribution & moral attitudes are not becoming more polarized across countries & have become more homogeneous in many. Attitudes about morality & redistribution are increasingly sorted by party in the US, but hardly in other countries
www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle...
www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle...
Moral tolerance, redistribution attitudes and left-right partisanship are not more polarized across countries: Polarization trends in 28 countries (1990-2022)
www.ssoar.info
October 28, 2025 at 12:34 PM
preferences for redistribution & moral attitudes are not becoming more polarized across countries & have become more homogeneous in many. Attitudes about morality & redistribution are increasingly sorted by party in the US, but hardly in other countries
www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle...
www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle...
Across countries, unequal congruence between high- & low-income voters & policy is driven by status quo bias, rather than unequal abilities to achieve policy
change. high-income advantage stems largely from their satisfaction with preserving the status quo
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
change. high-income advantage stems largely from their satisfaction with preserving the status quo
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
<em>Policy Studies Journal</em> | PSO Public Policy Journal | Wiley Online Library
Research on unequal responsiveness has shown that policies tend to align more closely with the preferences of high-income citizens than low-income citizens. Using comparative data on opinions and pol...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
October 26, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Across countries, unequal congruence between high- & low-income voters & policy is driven by status quo bias, rather than unequal abilities to achieve policy
change. high-income advantage stems largely from their satisfaction with preserving the status quo
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
change. high-income advantage stems largely from their satisfaction with preserving the status quo
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
experiencing the Advanced Child Tax Credit did generate substantial and lasting increases in support among Republican parents
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
<em>Policy Studies Journal</em> | PSO Public Policy Journal | Wiley Online Library
Policy feedback theories suggest that experiencing government benefits can reshape political attitudes, but evidence of how quickly these effects develop and whether they persist after benefits are w....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
October 26, 2025 at 7:57 PM
experiencing the Advanced Child Tax Credit did generate substantial and lasting increases in support among Republican parents
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Independent candidates do better than Democratic candidates with equivalent messages in rust belt states
images.jacobinmag.com/wp-content/u...
Discussed as the Democratic brand penalty on Ezra (they also briefly discuss Polarized by Degrees):
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/o...
images.jacobinmag.com/wp-content/u...
Discussed as the Democratic brand penalty on Ezra (they also briefly discuss Polarized by Degrees):
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/o...
images.jacobinmag.com
October 24, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Independent candidates do better than Democratic candidates with equivalent messages in rust belt states
images.jacobinmag.com/wp-content/u...
Discussed as the Democratic brand penalty on Ezra (they also briefly discuss Polarized by Degrees):
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/o...
images.jacobinmag.com/wp-content/u...
Discussed as the Democratic brand penalty on Ezra (they also briefly discuss Polarized by Degrees):
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/o...
Trump's redeployment of federal power is leading to an increase in (normally conservative) views among Democrats that the federal government has too much power & that agencies are ineffective, moving closer to Republican views.
news.gallup.com/poll/696191/...
news.gallup.com/poll/696059/...
news.gallup.com/poll/696191/...
news.gallup.com/poll/696059/...
Record-High 62% Say U.S. Government Has Too Much Power
Views that the federal government has too much power are now slightly higher than in previous years.
news.gallup.com
October 21, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Trump's redeployment of federal power is leading to an increase in (normally conservative) views among Democrats that the federal government has too much power & that agencies are ineffective, moving closer to Republican views.
news.gallup.com/poll/696191/...
news.gallup.com/poll/696059/...
news.gallup.com/poll/696191/...
news.gallup.com/poll/696059/...
Democrats still prefer that their leaders compromise, even under Trump
news.gallup.com/poll/695690/...
news.gallup.com/poll/695690/...
October 21, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Democrats still prefer that their leaders compromise, even under Trump
news.gallup.com/poll/695690/...
news.gallup.com/poll/695690/...
Democratic speeches in Congress are more likely to represent the views of their constituents and more consistent across the party than Republican speeches
www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
now publishers - Rhetorical Representation: Measuring Voter Alignment with Legislative Speech
Publishers of Foundations and Trends, making research accessible
www.nowpublishers.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Democratic speeches in Congress are more likely to represent the views of their constituents and more consistent across the party than Republican speeches
www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
Despite partisanship’s stronger associations with voting & party feelings, inter-election panel surveys show that the durability of partisan attachments has slightly weakened; partisanship is more consistent, but not a stronger attachment
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
On Polarization and Partisan Attachments: Greater Consistency but not Greater Strength - Political Behavior
Are Americans more strongly attached to their political parties than ever before? Despite partisanship’s stronger associations across politics, inter-election panel surveys show that the durability of...
link.springer.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:38 PM
Despite partisanship’s stronger associations with voting & party feelings, inter-election panel surveys show that the durability of partisan attachments has slightly weakened; partisanship is more consistent, but not a stronger attachment
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com/article/10.1...