Ingo Rohlfing

@ingorohlfing.bsky.social

4.4K followers 1.3K following 1.3K posts

I am here for all interesting and funny posts on the social sciences, broadly understood and including open science and meta science, academia, teaching and research. https://linktr.ee/ingorohlfing

Videos

Political science 30%

Sociology 17%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Ingo Rohlfing

Alex Holcombe @alexh.bsky.social · 1d

The volume of AI-enabled decent scientific work will overwhelm scientific journals and reviewers. Good post about this except it ends on a strange note, that Wiley and Elsevier AI tools might save us, which is both unlikely and would give even more power to them.
open.substack.com/pub/thebsdet...

The Coming Apocalypse for Scientific Publishing

Price was right

open.substack.com

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 1d

I guess Stata is working on an AI integration bc it knows it will be toast otherwise in the medium run. At a reasonable pricing level, this may help in securing current subscribers. I am uncertain this will help in the long run bc it may not be attractive enough as an entry point to data analysis.

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 1d

README Checklist by the Data Editors of Review of Financial Studies
review-of-financial-studies.github.io/readme.html An extensive checklist that is very useful. README files are likely something that is left for LLMs in the future, but it could be based on this template then. #OpenScience

Reposted by Ingo Rohlfing

Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 1d

I'm sceptical of most "AI will kill [insert job/field/method]" takes, but I'm increasingly of the view that AI will kill Stata. What's the point in paying for it when a Claude Code Max subscription costs about the same and does the same things and more in R/Python, exponentially faster and better?

Reposted by Ingo Rohlfing

Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 2d

Yes but a 2c from this political scientist:

1) in polisci, which is more open to qual methods/soft data than econ, the claude code shock may mean that qual data & original measurements will increase value

2) that "hopefully" is doing *a lot* of work but again women tend to select in qual meth so 🤞

Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 2d

So I predict the rise of the ol’ boys (now hopefully also girls) network model: people will rely on recommendations by trusted people who have directly engaged with the candidates, and little else. 6/

Reposted by Brian A. Nosek, Dan Goldhaber, Brendan Nyhan , and 32 more Brian A. Nosek, Dan Goldhaber, Brendan Nyhan, James P. Collins, Ben Bond‐Lamberty, Ruth Dassonneville, Alistair Munro, Jörg Peters, Brian Schaffner, Caroline Krafft, Philip N. Cohen, Alexander Wuttke, John Holbein, Justin H. Kirkland, Chris Hanretty, Scott Clifford, Valerie Mueller, Ingo Rohlfing, Michael Kevane, Flávio Azevedo, Max Nathan, Veli‐Matti Karhulahti, Philip Cowley, Julia Lynch, Juan Moreno‐Cruz, Madeleine Pownall, Patrick Präg, Marcus Credé, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Tom Louwerse, Aleksandra Urman, Samuel Coavoux, Jake Anders, Roman Senninger, Joan Dudney

Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 5d

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 6d

This, probably in combination with some R+R demands having marginal benefit for improving a manuscript.

Reposted by Ingo Rohlfing, Damien Bol

Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com · 6d

Every academic in their 40s goes through this career/life stage where they decide that the journals are broken and stupid. It's mostly because they are bored of working on R+Rs given that the marginal benefit for their own career of another publication is close to zero.

Alexander Kustov @akoustov.bsky.social · 7d

"Academic publishing as it currently exists is dead."

This is probably overstated, but if you're an early-career academic, it's worth taking seriously that tenured Stanford professors who've been working with AI more than most are saying things like this out loud now.

Reposted by Joshua Goodman, Ingo Rohlfing, Juan Moreno‐Cruz

Alexander Kustov @akoustov.bsky.social · 7d

Reposted by Ingo Rohlfing

Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 7d

New short blogpost!

There are probably many benefits of sharing clinical trial data, including:

Verifying results, better meta-analysis, understanding inconsistent results, further exploration, better clinical decision-making, learning how to run trials better, and reducing redundancy.

The case for sharing clinical trial data

The story behind the first statin and how its development was almost derailed, and the implications of sharing clinical trial data.

abundanceandgrowthblog.substack.com

Reposted by Ingo Rohlfing

Metavorhaben "Innovative Frauen im Fokus" (meta-IFiF) @meta-ifif.bsky.social · 7d

💡Wie tragen #Forschungsprojekte dazu bei, die #Sichtbarkeit innovativer Frauen zu erhöhen? Forschungsergebnisse, Maßnahmen und Formate finden Sie auf unserer Website! @bukof.bsky.social @frauenrat.bsky.social @infect-net.bsky.social @aktarcha.bsky.social @ruhr-uni-bochum.de @unidue.bsky.social

Neuer Bereich auf der meta-IFiF-Website

Sie möchten wissen, wie Forschungsprojekte dazu beitragen, innovative Frauen sichtbarer zu machen? Auf unserer Website finden Sie jetzt die

www.innovative-frauen-im-fokus.de

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 11d

Dann habe ich eine Ahnung, was das Bundesland angeht. Es sei denn, alle haben mittlerweile Scientologyfragebögen. So oder so, mein Glückwunsch und gut, dass eine deutsche Uni dich gewinnen konnte.

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 11d

Wo geht es hin?

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 11d

I forgot about this or missed it when reading the text. Technically, this seems correct, but besides everything else, the equal weighting of models is not plausible. Did anyone ever do this? I better not check.

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 12d

This is a very useful, non-technical discussion of the multiverse analysis. Personally, I like the "Don't take it too seriously" attitude, though it is probably unsatisfying for someone who thinks about using it and wants a more definitive answers (sometimes, this is not what one gets)

Reposted by Richard McElreath, Mark Rubin, Rebecca Sear , and 6 more Richard McElreath, Mark Rubin, Rebecca Sear, Ingo Rohlfing, Markus Wagner, Johannes Breuer, Florian Keusch, Kris Hardies, Jan R. Boehnke

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 12d

New preprint! So, what's a multiverse analysis good for anyway?>

With @jessicahullman.bsky.social and @statmodeling.bsky.social

juliarohrer.com/wp-content/u...

What’s a multiverse good for anyway?

Julia M. Rohrer, Jessica Hullman, and Andrew Gelman

Multiverse analysis has become a fairly popular approach, as indicated by the present special issue on the matter. Here, we take one step back and ask why one would conduct a multiverse analysis in the first place. We discuss various ways in which a multiverse may be employed – as a tool for reflection and critique, as a persuasive tool, as a serious inferential tool – as well as potential problems that arise depending on the specific purpose. For example, it fails as a persuasive tool when researchers disagree about which variations should be included in the analysis, and it fails as a serious inferential tool when the included analyses do not target a coherent estimand. Then, we take yet another step back and ask what the multiverse discourse has been good for and whether any broader lessons can be drawn. Ultimately, we conclude that the multiverse does remain a valuable tool; however, we urge against taking it too seriously.

Reposted by Alexander Wuttke, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 13d

Welcome to #OpenScience Land
expedition-open-science.org This is a lightweight, but very useful and accessible intro to key elements of Open Science (online and as a PDF). Seems particularly useful for introducing the topic to undergraduates @zbw-leibniz.bsky.social

A handdrawn of an imaginated open science land. It has as parts documentation, planning, dissemination, sea of myths and peninsula of dreams

Reposted by Ingo Rohlfing, Margot C. Finn, Benjamin Klement

Stephanie M. Lee @stephaniemlee.bsky.social · 13d

Here’s What the Latest Epstein Files Say About His Ties to Higher Ed: Collectively, the files underscore how deeply Epstein remained embedded in academic and intellectual circles even after his criminal history became public. www.chronicle.com/article/here...

Here’s What the Latest Epstein Files Say About His Ties to Higher Ed

New documents released by the Department of Justice on Friday reinforce that long after his criminal convictions, many prominent professors continued to communicate with him.

www.chronicle.com

Reposted by Dorothy Bishop, Magnus Johansson, Ingo Rohlfing , and 1 more Dorothy Bishop, Magnus Johansson, Ingo Rohlfing, Matti Vuorre

Michèle Nuijten @michelenuijten.bsky.social · 13d

I wrote a blog for the Meta-Research Center expressing my infinite frustration about not getting data. What else is new, you might think? Well, I added an extra layer of annoyance directed at the journals who do NOTHING to enforce promised data sharing.

metaresearch.nl/blog/2026/2/...

Promised Data Unavailable? – I’m Sorry, Ma’am, There’s Nothing We Can Do — Meta-Research Center

This blogpost has been written by Michèle Nuijten. Michèle is an assistant professor of our research group who investigates reproducibility and replicability in psychology. Also, she is the developer ...

metaresearch.nl

Reposted by Ingo Rohlfing, Ian Hussey, José Pina-Sánchez

Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 13d

Don't you f**king dare.

Screen shot of a youtube video titled "AI.FILL Function Explained: 10X Productivity in Excel with AI" with the caption "Let ChatGPT fill your missing data"

Reposted by Michael Barnett, Brian A. Nosek, Steven Van de Walle , and 11 more Michael Barnett, Brian A. Nosek, Steven Van de Walle, Ben Barr, Anne Rasmussen, Alexander Wuttke, John Holbein, Justin H. Kirkland, Valerie Mueller, Ingo Rohlfing, Michael Kevane, Dean Eckles, David Szakonyi, Roman Senninger

Florian Hollenbach @fhollenbach.org · 13d

🧵 New version of our paper (@bcegerod.bsky.social) is finally online: "How Many is Enough? Sample Size in Staggered Difference-in-Differences Designs"
We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large
Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 13d

Nine More Higher Ed Names in the Epstein Files
www.insidehighered.com/news/faculty...

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 14d

It is good more attention is paid to power.
In what way do we get to our senses? That more studies estimate power, or acknowledge that power is likely to be low?

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 14d

Good point, this is plausible to me.

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 14d

I think this is unlikely to happen, but who knows. Let's see how this plays out at Small Business Economics and how the first registered report will look like. 2/

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 14d

Sorry, I was fully focused on the prereg part, not the reports part. Right, results-blind review would likely still work. Theoretically, if you were submitting your code with the registered report and the original data were sitting in some repo, a reviewer could quickly do the analysis. 1/

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 14d

Not to downplay the value of the format, which is great, but these kind of studies do not open much opportunity for replications because new data would be hard to collect or it may not be possible when the original study already worked with all population-level data 3/

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 14d

the data little insightful. It does not mean the data do not exist at the time of prereg, but there should be some credibility of the inaccessibility part.
Maybe the editors have a different view because, according to the online-first articles, most seem to work with survey, firm or country data 2/

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 14d

I don't know, we should ask the editors what they mean to be sure. "and/or in a different context" does not read like new data to me when they refer to new data before that.
I am fine with anyone having a different read of and view on this. Personally, I find prereg with ex ante accessibility of 1/

Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 14d

Vielleicht kann zur Abwechslung mal jemand Niesen?

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