Rob Carlson
@robcarlson.bsky.social
I aspire to leave the planet in better shape than I found it.
Managing Director, Planetary Technologies: @planetaryops.bsky.social
2024 Bloomberg Green Champion
Accidental Affiliate Prof of Computer Science, @UWCSE.bsky.social
Home: synthesis.cc
Managing Director, Planetary Technologies: @planetaryops.bsky.social
2024 Bloomberg Green Champion
Accidental Affiliate Prof of Computer Science, @UWCSE.bsky.social
Home: synthesis.cc
Pinned
Rob Carlson
@robcarlson.bsky.social
· Nov 10
Intro 🧵
Hello World. I work at the intersection of technology, economics, and security.
I start with simple questions. How big is it? How fast is it? How do you know? Are you sure? Then I dig deeper.
Present topics:
Electrification
Bioeconomy
The truth/fiction of threats/benefits from AI
Hello World. I work at the intersection of technology, economics, and security.
I start with simple questions. How big is it? How fast is it? How do you know? Are you sure? Then I dig deeper.
Present topics:
Electrification
Bioeconomy
The truth/fiction of threats/benefits from AI
Reposted by Rob Carlson
It seems increasingly likely that nuclear (fission and fusion) is going to lose hard to geothermal.
Three reasons: speed and cost, which together determine capital efficiency.
Even if geothermal does not hit expected cost metrics, you can still deliver electrons a lot sooner than with nuclear.
🔌💡
Three reasons: speed and cost, which together determine capital efficiency.
Even if geothermal does not hit expected cost metrics, you can still deliver electrons a lot sooner than with nuclear.
🔌💡
Because geothermal power can offer clean energy around the clock, it is a perfect match for the incessant power-guzzling of data centres
Geothermal’s time has finally come
This source of energy could become bigger than nuclear
econ.st
November 19, 2025 at 9:23 PM
It seems increasingly likely that nuclear (fission and fusion) is going to lose hard to geothermal.
Three reasons: speed and cost, which together determine capital efficiency.
Even if geothermal does not hit expected cost metrics, you can still deliver electrons a lot sooner than with nuclear.
🔌💡
Three reasons: speed and cost, which together determine capital efficiency.
Even if geothermal does not hit expected cost metrics, you can still deliver electrons a lot sooner than with nuclear.
🔌💡
Reposted by Rob Carlson
CAISO planning calls for 30GW in the Central Valley. This 21GW is just Fresno County and doesn’t include the Darden project that was approved this summer and will be the largest solar + storage project in United States, and biggest battery. bsky.app/profile/dust...
As expected, the California Energy Commission approved the 1.15 GW solar plus storage Darden project in Fresno County, the first project approved through California’s Opt-In process that can gain approval via the state instead of local government. www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2025/06/cali...
California fast-tracks permitting on gigawatt-scale solar + storage project in Fresno County
The California Energy Commission (CEC) has approved a 1.1-GW solar and 4.6-GWh storage project for Fresno County that is the first project to be permitted
www.solarpowerworldonline.com
December 19, 2025 at 11:01 PM
CAISO planning calls for 30GW in the Central Valley. This 21GW is just Fresno County and doesn’t include the Darden project that was approved this summer and will be the largest solar + storage project in United States, and biggest battery. bsky.app/profile/dust...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
This development could by itself take out most of the remaining gas generation in California, and on sunny days a good chunk of electricity imports as well.
🔌💡
bsky.app/profile/dust...
🔌💡
bsky.app/profile/dust...
December 19, 2025 at 8:15 PM
This development could by itself take out most of the remaining gas generation in California, and on sunny days a good chunk of electricity imports as well.
🔌💡
bsky.app/profile/dust...
🔌💡
bsky.app/profile/dust...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
'Moon at Musashino' - Tonouchi Misho, ca. 1937. From the Aichi Prefectural Museum of Art collection.
#FullMoon #JapaneseArt
#FullMoon #JapaneseArt
January 4, 2026 at 2:03 AM
'Moon at Musashino' - Tonouchi Misho, ca. 1937. From the Aichi Prefectural Museum of Art collection.
#FullMoon #JapaneseArt
#FullMoon #JapaneseArt
Reposted by Rob Carlson
The financial superiority of renewables over fossil fuels, and in particular their superior capital efficiency, was a major theme of the first installment of The Sun Has Won (2022).
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
January 2, 2026 at 5:36 PM
The financial superiority of renewables over fossil fuels, and in particular their superior capital efficiency, was a major theme of the first installment of The Sun Has Won (2022).
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
Reposted by Rob Carlson
To be sure. But there is a cost of capital for both, and The Sun Has Won also identifies that the cost of capital for renewables is lower than it is for fossil projects.
Presumably this is a major reason why fossil companies are returning cash to investors rather than investing more into capex.
Presumably this is a major reason why fossil companies are returning cash to investors rather than investing more into capex.
January 2, 2026 at 7:32 PM
To be sure. But there is a cost of capital for both, and The Sun Has Won also identifies that the cost of capital for renewables is lower than it is for fossil projects.
Presumably this is a major reason why fossil companies are returning cash to investors rather than investing more into capex.
Presumably this is a major reason why fossil companies are returning cash to investors rather than investing more into capex.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Perhaps worth noting that oil majors rely less on banks/loans than renewables because of operating revenues -- but direction of travel clear.
January 2, 2026 at 6:33 PM
Perhaps worth noting that oil majors rely less on banks/loans than renewables because of operating revenues -- but direction of travel clear.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
During the startup periods of various energy sources in the USA, researchers have found that fossils have gotten 15X what renewables have received from the feds, and 10X what nuclear has gotten.
January 3, 2026 at 5:53 PM
During the startup periods of various energy sources in the USA, researchers have found that fossils have gotten 15X what renewables have received from the feds, and 10X what nuclear has gotten.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
It isn't just that renewables are growing, they are growing because they are more capital efficient, they carry less risk, their cost of capital is lower than fossil fuels, and fossil fuels are a boom and (often) bust investment.
TL;DR Bankers don't like to lose money.
bsky.app/profile/robc...
TL;DR Bankers don't like to lose money.
bsky.app/profile/robc...
The financial superiority of renewables over fossil fuels, and in particular their superior capital efficiency, was a major theme of the first installment of The Sun Has Won (2022).
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
January 3, 2026 at 5:00 AM
It isn't just that renewables are growing, they are growing because they are more capital efficient, they carry less risk, their cost of capital is lower than fossil fuels, and fossil fuels are a boom and (often) bust investment.
TL;DR Bankers don't like to lose money.
bsky.app/profile/robc...
TL;DR Bankers don't like to lose money.
bsky.app/profile/robc...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 227 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 227 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
January 3, 2026 at 6:14 AM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 227 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 227 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Rock and dust samples brought back from the near-Earth asteroid Bennu contain organic matter, including amino acids and all five DNA and RNA nucleobases, according to two papers published in Nature Astronomy and Nature in January.
go.nature.com/40SlwfF
go.nature.com/3CC6ZLO
🔭 🧪
go.nature.com/40SlwfF
go.nature.com/3CC6ZLO
🔭 🧪
January 2, 2026 at 11:34 PM
Rock and dust samples brought back from the near-Earth asteroid Bennu contain organic matter, including amino acids and all five DNA and RNA nucleobases, according to two papers published in Nature Astronomy and Nature in January.
go.nature.com/40SlwfF
go.nature.com/3CC6ZLO
🔭 🧪
go.nature.com/40SlwfF
go.nature.com/3CC6ZLO
🔭 🧪
Reposted by Rob Carlson
For more details, see:
The staggering scale of human CO2 emissions
We've emitted more CO2 than all living biomass and human-made mass combined.
www.theclimatebrink.com
January 2, 2026 at 6:50 PM
For more details, see:
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Humans have emitted 2750 gigatons of CO2 since the industrial revolution from burning fossil fuels and land use change. To put this in perspective, this is more than the (dry) mass of all living things on earth and everything humans have ever built combined:
January 2, 2026 at 6:49 PM
Humans have emitted 2750 gigatons of CO2 since the industrial revolution from burning fossil fuels and land use change. To put this in perspective, this is more than the (dry) mass of all living things on earth and everything humans have ever built combined:
The financial superiority of renewables over fossil fuels, and in particular their superior capital efficiency, was a major theme of the first installment of The Sun Has Won (2022).
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
January 2, 2026 at 5:36 PM
The financial superiority of renewables over fossil fuels, and in particular their superior capital efficiency, was a major theme of the first installment of The Sun Has Won (2022).
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
The financial superiority of renewables over fossil fuels, and in particular their superior capital efficiency, was a major theme of the first installment of The Sun Has Won (2022).
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
January 2, 2026 at 4:18 PM
The financial superiority of renewables over fossil fuels, and in particular their superior capital efficiency, was a major theme of the first installment of The Sun Has Won (2022).
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
www.planetarytech.earth/the-sun-has-...
🔌💡
Reposted by Rob Carlson
A piece on the research trying to fill the very, very large gap between life-support systems and terraforming www.economist.com/science-and-...
January 1, 2026 at 2:44 PM
A piece on the research trying to fill the very, very large gap between life-support systems and terraforming www.economist.com/science-and-...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Happy New Year's Eve 🎆🎇🎆🎇
This woodblock print showing fireworks at Ryōgoku bridge was created by Utagawa Hiroshige I in 1858. It features as part of the One Hundred Famous Views of Edo series.
We'll be closing our doors tomorrow, 1 January 2026, and will be reopening on 2 January.
🎆 EAX.4365
This woodblock print showing fireworks at Ryōgoku bridge was created by Utagawa Hiroshige I in 1858. It features as part of the One Hundred Famous Views of Edo series.
We'll be closing our doors tomorrow, 1 January 2026, and will be reopening on 2 January.
🎆 EAX.4365
December 31, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Happy New Year's Eve 🎆🎇🎆🎇
This woodblock print showing fireworks at Ryōgoku bridge was created by Utagawa Hiroshige I in 1858. It features as part of the One Hundred Famous Views of Edo series.
We'll be closing our doors tomorrow, 1 January 2026, and will be reopening on 2 January.
🎆 EAX.4365
This woodblock print showing fireworks at Ryōgoku bridge was created by Utagawa Hiroshige I in 1858. It features as part of the One Hundred Famous Views of Edo series.
We'll be closing our doors tomorrow, 1 January 2026, and will be reopening on 2 January.
🎆 EAX.4365
Reposted by Rob Carlson
"The US power sector is poised for a landmark transition in 2026, with all net new generating capacity expected to come exclusively from renewable energy and battery storage, according to forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration"
Renewables and Battery Storage to Deliver 100% of New US Power Capacity in 2026, EIA Forecast Shows - GreentechLead
All net new generating capacity in the US is expected to come exclusively from renewable energy and battery storage, IEA said
greentechlead.com
December 31, 2025 at 7:08 PM
"The US power sector is poised for a landmark transition in 2026, with all net new generating capacity expected to come exclusively from renewable energy and battery storage, according to forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration"
"The offensive and defensive power of low-cost commercial drones was known by the US military as early as 2017."
Hmmm. Yes. I wrote this four part series back in 2012:
Are These The #Drones We're Looking For? (Parts I-IV)
www.synthesis.cc/synthesis/20...
Hmmm. Yes. I wrote this four part series back in 2012:
Are These The #Drones We're Looking For? (Parts I-IV)
www.synthesis.cc/synthesis/20...
December 29, 2025 at 9:35 PM
"The offensive and defensive power of low-cost commercial drones was known by the US military as early as 2017."
Hmmm. Yes. I wrote this four part series back in 2012:
Are These The #Drones We're Looking For? (Parts I-IV)
www.synthesis.cc/synthesis/20...
Hmmm. Yes. I wrote this four part series back in 2012:
Are These The #Drones We're Looking For? (Parts I-IV)
www.synthesis.cc/synthesis/20...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
DUNE (dir. David Lynch, 1984)
December 29, 2025 at 1:39 PM
DUNE (dir. David Lynch, 1984)
🏳️⚧️
Did you know there are 2 types of avocado varieties? A-types switch from female to male, B-types male to female, within a single day. This reciprocal sex alternation promotes cross-pollination and has a simple genetic basis. Read more in this recent preprint from the final chapter of my PhD thesis 🥑
Balanced polymorphism in a floral transcription factor underlies an ancient rhythm of daily sex alternation in avocado
In avocado and certain wild relatives in Lauraceae, pollination occurs via a synchronized rhythm of floral sex timing between two hermaphroditic flowering types. A-type plants present female-phase flo...
www.biorxiv.org
December 29, 2025 at 8:54 PM
🏳️⚧️
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Does AI Really Make Coders Faster?
TL;DR "a growing body of research suggests that the claimed productivity gains may be illusory"
AI coding is "increasing the number of harder-to-pinpoint flaws that lead to maintenance problems and technical debt."
www.technologyreview.com/2025/12/15/1...
TL;DR "a growing body of research suggests that the claimed productivity gains may be illusory"
AI coding is "increasing the number of harder-to-pinpoint flaws that lead to maintenance problems and technical debt."
www.technologyreview.com/2025/12/15/1...
AI coding is now everywhere. But not everyone is convinced.
Developers are navigating confusing gaps between expectation and reality. So are the rest of us.
www.technologyreview.com
December 21, 2025 at 3:35 AM
Does AI Really Make Coders Faster?
TL;DR "a growing body of research suggests that the claimed productivity gains may be illusory"
AI coding is "increasing the number of harder-to-pinpoint flaws that lead to maintenance problems and technical debt."
www.technologyreview.com/2025/12/15/1...
TL;DR "a growing body of research suggests that the claimed productivity gains may be illusory"
AI coding is "increasing the number of harder-to-pinpoint flaws that lead to maintenance problems and technical debt."
www.technologyreview.com/2025/12/15/1...