Rob Carlson
@robcarlson.bsky.social
I aspire to leave the planet in better shape than I found it.
Managing Director, Planetary Technologies: @planetaryops.bsky.social
2024 Bloomberg Green Champion
Accidental Affiliate Prof of Computer Science, @UWCSE.bsky.social
Home: synthesis.cc
Managing Director, Planetary Technologies: @planetaryops.bsky.social
2024 Bloomberg Green Champion
Accidental Affiliate Prof of Computer Science, @UWCSE.bsky.social
Home: synthesis.cc
Pinned
Rob Carlson
@robcarlson.bsky.social
· Nov 10
Intro 🧵
Hello World. I work at the intersection of technology, economics, and security.
I start with simple questions. How big is it? How fast is it? How do you know? Are you sure? Then I dig deeper.
Present topics:
Electrification
Bioeconomy
The truth/fiction of threats/benefits from AI
Hello World. I work at the intersection of technology, economics, and security.
I start with simple questions. How big is it? How fast is it? How do you know? Are you sure? Then I dig deeper.
Present topics:
Electrification
Bioeconomy
The truth/fiction of threats/benefits from AI
So dog. Much wag.
November 29, 2025 at 7:10 PM
So dog. Much wag.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
👇🏼
I don’t know if anyone else notices or cares, but when I see a presentation in which the speaker uses obviously generated-AI images to illustrate their slides, it makes me immediately less confident in whatever other content they’re presenting.
November 28, 2025 at 7:51 PM
👇🏼
Reposted by Rob Carlson
November 28, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Investors expect AI use to soar. That's not happening. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
November 27, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Investors expect AI use to soar. That's not happening. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Fragile, 1931 #abstractart #wassilykandinsky
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Fragile, 1931 #abstractart #wassilykandinsky
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 222 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 222 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
November 26, 2025 at 10:45 PM
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 222 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 222 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Reposted by Rob Carlson
"The state program gave participants $1,000 cash payments each month for two years. At the end of the project's first phase, 91% of participants reported being in stable housing."
Oregon pilot program giving cash to homeless youths sees staggering reduction in homelessness
Oregon gave homeless youths cash payments with no strings attached. Read how it helped.
www.streetroots.org
November 25, 2025 at 4:04 AM
"The state program gave participants $1,000 cash payments each month for two years. At the end of the project's first phase, 91% of participants reported being in stable housing."
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Good morning with good news: Solar is significantly reducing gas generation in California.
Utility-scale solar surged 17% from Jan-Aug 2025, compared to same period in 2024.
Gas generation fell 18%, as solar rose 17%!
CA also has ~18 GW of small solar.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg... #energysky
Utility-scale solar surged 17% from Jan-Aug 2025, compared to same period in 2024.
Gas generation fell 18%, as solar rose 17%!
CA also has ~18 GW of small solar.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg... #energysky
November 25, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Good morning with good news: Solar is significantly reducing gas generation in California.
Utility-scale solar surged 17% from Jan-Aug 2025, compared to same period in 2024.
Gas generation fell 18%, as solar rose 17%!
CA also has ~18 GW of small solar.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg... #energysky
Utility-scale solar surged 17% from Jan-Aug 2025, compared to same period in 2024.
Gas generation fell 18%, as solar rose 17%!
CA also has ~18 GW of small solar.
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg... #energysky
Reposted by Rob Carlson
"The circle is the synthesis of the greatest oppositions. It combines the concentric and the eccentric in a single form and in equilibrium. Of the three primary forms, it points most clearly to the fourth dimension."
- W.Kandinsky -
🖼️ : "Circles in a Circle", 1923, oil on canvas
#Quotes #Art
- W.Kandinsky -
🖼️ : "Circles in a Circle", 1923, oil on canvas
#Quotes #Art
November 23, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Now a German train I will take in 2 weeks is already 40 minutes late.
November 24, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Now a German train I will take in 2 weeks is already 40 minutes late.
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Every German train I have ridden in the last 3 days in and between Berlin and Leipzig — UBahn, SBahn, Eisenbahn, DB — has been late. #verspätung
October 15, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Every German train I have ridden in the last 3 days in and between Berlin and Leipzig — UBahn, SBahn, Eisenbahn, DB — has been late. #verspätung
Reposted by Rob Carlson
As of 5pm today, batteries were the largest single source of power for the Californian grid www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
November 24, 2025 at 1:09 AM
As of 5pm today, batteries were the largest single source of power for the Californian grid www.caiso.com/todays-outlo...
How often is the trope of "elevating a child to be a figurehead of a movement" the opening of a morality tale about manipulation and abuse of the flock?
When Ester Souza steps up to the pulpit of her father’s church in rural Brazil, the congregation leans in.
Ester is 8 years old. She's one of several children helping to spread evangelical Christianity in Brazil, a movement that’s blending youth, faith and social media to win souls.
Ester is 8 years old. She's one of several children helping to spread evangelical Christianity in Brazil, a movement that’s blending youth, faith and social media to win souls.
This star evangelical preacher is 8 — and she’s part of a growing trend
Ester Souza, the daughter of pastors in rural São Paulo state, has millions of social media followers.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 23, 2025 at 10:56 PM
How often is the trope of "elevating a child to be a figurehead of a movement" the opening of a morality tale about manipulation and abuse of the flock?
With Dave Page closing up shop, Swanson's is the last cobbler in #Fremont and #Wallingford. Seattle is losing important skilled labor that supports reuse rather than just throwing things away.
Let's keep them in business, #Seattle.
www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...
Let's keep them in business, #Seattle.
www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...
How one Seattle cobbler explains a century of economic change
It's all here in this fourth-generation shop — unionization, assembly lines, automation, offshoring, corporate skulduggery, real estate booms — writ small.
www.seattletimes.com
November 23, 2025 at 7:59 PM
With Dave Page closing up shop, Swanson's is the last cobbler in #Fremont and #Wallingford. Seattle is losing important skilled labor that supports reuse rather than just throwing things away.
Let's keep them in business, #Seattle.
www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...
Let's keep them in business, #Seattle.
www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
For those investors taking Altman seriously:
What is the probability weighted sales funnel that would support $1T in spending, even without other costs?
What about when you have to support a software industry profit margin (~35%)?
When?
OpenAI wants to spend $1T/yr
www.axios.com/2025/10/28/o...
What is the probability weighted sales funnel that would support $1T in spending, even without other costs?
What about when you have to support a software industry profit margin (~35%)?
When?
OpenAI wants to spend $1T/yr
www.axios.com/2025/10/28/o...
October 28, 2025 at 7:45 PM
For those investors taking Altman seriously:
What is the probability weighted sales funnel that would support $1T in spending, even without other costs?
What about when you have to support a software industry profit margin (~35%)?
When?
OpenAI wants to spend $1T/yr
www.axios.com/2025/10/28/o...
What is the probability weighted sales funnel that would support $1T in spending, even without other costs?
What about when you have to support a software industry profit margin (~35%)?
When?
OpenAI wants to spend $1T/yr
www.axios.com/2025/10/28/o...
This feels like a @nickharkaway.com or @cstross.bsky.social plot twist.
"The Ukrainian Army is knocking a once-hyped Russian superweapon out of the sky by jamming it with a song and tricking it into thinking it’s in Lima, Peru."
www.404media.co/ukraine-is-j...
"The Ukrainian Army is knocking a once-hyped Russian superweapon out of the sky by jamming it with a song and tricking it into thinking it’s in Lima, Peru."
www.404media.co/ukraine-is-j...
Ukraine Is Jamming Russia’s ‘Superweapon’ With a Song
A few years ago, Putin hyped the Kinzhal hypersonic missile. Now electronic warfare is knocking it out of the sky with music and some bad directions.
www.404media.co
November 22, 2025 at 5:02 PM
This feels like a @nickharkaway.com or @cstross.bsky.social plot twist.
"The Ukrainian Army is knocking a once-hyped Russian superweapon out of the sky by jamming it with a song and tricking it into thinking it’s in Lima, Peru."
www.404media.co/ukraine-is-j...
"The Ukrainian Army is knocking a once-hyped Russian superweapon out of the sky by jamming it with a song and tricking it into thinking it’s in Lima, Peru."
www.404media.co/ukraine-is-j...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Well, drat.
One plot element of the SF novel I am sort-of-occassionally-but-not-really working on is that Elmo starts a solar irradiance modification project in space but then screws it up and abandons it.
But maybe I can still be creative about how he screws up.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
One plot element of the SF novel I am sort-of-occassionally-but-not-really working on is that Elmo starts a solar irradiance modification project in space but then screws it up and abandons it.
But maybe I can still be creative about how he screws up.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Will Elon Musk Be the Sun King or Icarus?
Solar geoengineering is the next big thing in the commercial quest to save the planet. And that’s scary.
www.bloomberg.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:24 PM
Well, drat.
One plot element of the SF novel I am sort-of-occassionally-but-not-really working on is that Elmo starts a solar irradiance modification project in space but then screws it up and abandons it.
But maybe I can still be creative about how he screws up.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
One plot element of the SF novel I am sort-of-occassionally-but-not-really working on is that Elmo starts a solar irradiance modification project in space but then screws it up and abandons it.
But maybe I can still be creative about how he screws up.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Earlier today, I was notified that someone was at my door.
This is who it was:
This is who it was:
November 21, 2025 at 12:59 AM
Earlier today, I was notified that someone was at my door.
This is who it was:
This is who it was:
🔌💡
Chart: EVs are ascendant — and gas cars are past their prime #energysky -- via Canary Media:
Chart: EVs are ascendant — and gas cars are past their prime
Sales of gas-only vehicles are down by 31% from their peak, while electric vehicle sales are growing rapidly worldwide, largely due to China.
www.canarymedia.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:44 PM
🔌💡
Reposted by Rob Carlson
A graph you won’t see in a story about Texas’ rapid solar and storage deployment.. 🔌💡 #EnergyTransition
November 20, 2025 at 5:19 PM
A graph you won’t see in a story about Texas’ rapid solar and storage deployment.. 🔌💡 #EnergyTransition
Reposted by Rob Carlson
Batteries are charging grid decarbonization in California. ☀️🔋🔌💡 #EnergySky
A graph you won’t see in a story about Texas’ rapid solar and storage deployment.. 🔌💡 #EnergyTransition
November 21, 2025 at 3:57 AM
Batteries are charging grid decarbonization in California. ☀️🔋🔌💡 #EnergySky
Hmm.
“Nostalgia is not a strategy. We should not pine to go back to the world that was. We should focus on building something better. The twilight of multilateralism will be followed by the rise of plurilateralism. States that embrace weaving new networks, will be best placed to thrive.”
“Nostalgia is not a strategy. We should not pine to go back to the world that was. We should focus on building something better. The twilight of multilateralism will be followed by the rise of plurilateralism. States that embrace weaving new networks, will be best placed to thrive.”
Canada’s prime minister argues that countries that build new networks and pragmatic alliances will be best placed to thrive in this new age
The world is in a new age of variable geometry, says Mark Carney
Canada’s prime minister argues that countries that build new networks and pragmatic alliances will be best placed to thrive in this new age
econ.st
November 21, 2025 at 3:22 AM
Hmm.
“Nostalgia is not a strategy. We should not pine to go back to the world that was. We should focus on building something better. The twilight of multilateralism will be followed by the rise of plurilateralism. States that embrace weaving new networks, will be best placed to thrive.”
“Nostalgia is not a strategy. We should not pine to go back to the world that was. We should focus on building something better. The twilight of multilateralism will be followed by the rise of plurilateralism. States that embrace weaving new networks, will be best placed to thrive.”
Rumpty is vying for the Nobel Surrender Prize.
The US peace plan for Ukraine calls for Kyiv to cede swaths of land currently under its control and offers big concessions to Russia, including a ban on any future expansion of the Nato military alliance. on.ft.com/4oaGlf0
November 21, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Rumpty is vying for the Nobel Surrender Prize.