Rob Carlson
@robcarlson.bsky.social
I aspire to leave the planet in better shape than I found it.
Managing Director, Planetary Technologies: @planetaryops.bsky.social
2024 Bloomberg Green Champion
Accidental Affiliate Prof of Computer Science, @UWCSE.bsky.social
Home: synthesis.cc
Managing Director, Planetary Technologies: @planetaryops.bsky.social
2024 Bloomberg Green Champion
Accidental Affiliate Prof of Computer Science, @UWCSE.bsky.social
Home: synthesis.cc
Ha. Good crypto snark here from @katie0martin.ft.com .
November 22, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Ha. Good crypto snark here from @katie0martin.ft.com .
Why ever would you mock crypto?
Err, I mean, why ever would you stop mocking crypto?
Crypto World Wipes Out $1 Trillion as Bitcoin Plunges Anew
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Err, I mean, why ever would you stop mocking crypto?
Crypto World Wipes Out $1 Trillion as Bitcoin Plunges Anew
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 20, 2025 at 12:33 AM
Why ever would you mock crypto?
Err, I mean, why ever would you stop mocking crypto?
Crypto World Wipes Out $1 Trillion as Bitcoin Plunges Anew
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Err, I mean, why ever would you stop mocking crypto?
Crypto World Wipes Out $1 Trillion as Bitcoin Plunges Anew
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
This version of the @ember-energy.org data annual electricity data, from @sustainableviews.bsky.social, is quite good.
I am not going to get overly excited about a single data point.
But the trend is certainly encouraging.
2025 marks first year without fossil power growth despite rising demand
🔌💡
I am not going to get overly excited about a single data point.
But the trend is certainly encouraging.
2025 marks first year without fossil power growth despite rising demand
🔌💡
November 13, 2025 at 4:24 PM
This version of the @ember-energy.org data annual electricity data, from @sustainableviews.bsky.social, is quite good.
I am not going to get overly excited about a single data point.
But the trend is certainly encouraging.
2025 marks first year without fossil power growth despite rising demand
🔌💡
I am not going to get overly excited about a single data point.
But the trend is certainly encouraging.
2025 marks first year without fossil power growth despite rising demand
🔌💡
If you were out in the Salish Sea in a kayak this evening, you could be having a hellacious (defn 2) fun ride along with the current or a truly hellacious (defn 1) paddle against current.
And if it is the latter you would probably lose. Better to stay ashore in a pub.
deepzoom.com
And if it is the latter you would probably lose. Better to stay ashore in a pub.
deepzoom.com
November 13, 2025 at 3:13 AM
If you were out in the Salish Sea in a kayak this evening, you could be having a hellacious (defn 2) fun ride along with the current or a truly hellacious (defn 1) paddle against current.
And if it is the latter you would probably lose. Better to stay ashore in a pub.
deepzoom.com
And if it is the latter you would probably lose. Better to stay ashore in a pub.
deepzoom.com
A hint of aurora pink and green here in #Seattle, through the clouds, but only really visible with my camera rather than the naked eye.
November 12, 2025 at 3:21 AM
A hint of aurora pink and green here in #Seattle, through the clouds, but only really visible with my camera rather than the naked eye.
Turns out this is more interesting with Demand by State vs State GDP per capita. (Assuming no arithmetic errors on my part.)
Plenty of states have similar GDP per capita to TX and CA, but the latter are less efficient per $ GDP.
Though TX is getting worse much faster than anywhere else.
🔌💡
Plenty of states have similar GDP per capita to TX and CA, but the latter are less efficient per $ GDP.
Though TX is getting worse much faster than anywhere else.
🔌💡
November 10, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Turns out this is more interesting with Demand by State vs State GDP per capita. (Assuming no arithmetic errors on my part.)
Plenty of states have similar GDP per capita to TX and CA, but the latter are less efficient per $ GDP.
Though TX is getting worse much faster than anywhere else.
🔌💡
Plenty of states have similar GDP per capita to TX and CA, but the latter are less efficient per $ GDP.
Though TX is getting worse much faster than anywhere else.
🔌💡
Now, if looking a few charts earlier, squinting at the fine print you see that the analysis assumes "a cost "learning curve" of ~30% between Vogtle units 3&4... total capital cost of ~$32.3B".
🔌💡
🔌💡
November 10, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Now, if looking a few charts earlier, squinting at the fine print you see that the analysis assumes "a cost "learning curve" of ~30% between Vogtle units 3&4... total capital cost of ~$32.3B".
🔌💡
🔌💡
First stop, since Woods Makenzie never shows their work, was revisiting the most recent Lazard LCOE report. (Yes, yes, LCOE is not perfect, but we have to start somewhere.)
What caught my eye is that, mysteriously, the LCOE for nuclear fell a bit in 2025. This despite no new construction in 2025.🔌💡
What caught my eye is that, mysteriously, the LCOE for nuclear fell a bit in 2025. This despite no new construction in 2025.🔌💡
November 10, 2025 at 6:14 PM
First stop, since Woods Makenzie never shows their work, was revisiting the most recent Lazard LCOE report. (Yes, yes, LCOE is not perfect, but we have to start somewhere.)
What caught my eye is that, mysteriously, the LCOE for nuclear fell a bit in 2025. This despite no new construction in 2025.🔌💡
What caught my eye is that, mysteriously, the LCOE for nuclear fell a bit in 2025. This despite no new construction in 2025.🔌💡
November 9, 2025 at 9:13 PM
CA and TX are running very different races, because their economies are so very different in composition and structure.
(This is from something I am currently working on.)
CA is heavy on bits, and becoming more efficient over time, TX is heavy on atoms and thus far becoming ever less efficient.
🔌💡
(This is from something I am currently working on.)
CA is heavy on bits, and becoming more efficient over time, TX is heavy on atoms and thus far becoming ever less efficient.
🔌💡
November 6, 2025 at 7:42 PM
CA and TX are running very different races, because their economies are so very different in composition and structure.
(This is from something I am currently working on.)
CA is heavy on bits, and becoming more efficient over time, TX is heavy on atoms and thus far becoming ever less efficient.
🔌💡
(This is from something I am currently working on.)
CA is heavy on bits, and becoming more efficient over time, TX is heavy on atoms and thus far becoming ever less efficient.
🔌💡
Thought about showing a different film on the balcony this year for the Halloween block party, but nothing is better than this.
November 1, 2025 at 2:21 AM
Thought about showing a different film on the balcony this year for the Halloween block party, but nothing is better than this.
The other important chart in that blog post shows the same trend for California, that is, grid stability increasing as PV increases.
🔌💡
I am working on the rest of the U.S., state by state.
www.planetarytech.earth/posts/high-r...
🔌💡
I am working on the rest of the U.S., state by state.
www.planetarytech.earth/posts/high-r...
October 28, 2025 at 6:46 PM
The other important chart in that blog post shows the same trend for California, that is, grid stability increasing as PV increases.
🔌💡
I am working on the rest of the U.S., state by state.
www.planetarytech.earth/posts/high-r...
🔌💡
I am working on the rest of the U.S., state by state.
www.planetarytech.earth/posts/high-r...
This "Europe" story is at best problematic. It describes no actual evidence that grid instability is caused by renewables.
Moreover, as a counterexample, here is Germany, which I believe is in Europe, where grid stability has increased with increasing PV.🔌💡
www.planetarytech.earth/posts/high-r...
Moreover, as a counterexample, here is Germany, which I believe is in Europe, where grid stability has increased with increasing PV.🔌💡
www.planetarytech.earth/posts/high-r...
October 28, 2025 at 4:58 PM
This "Europe" story is at best problematic. It describes no actual evidence that grid instability is caused by renewables.
Moreover, as a counterexample, here is Germany, which I believe is in Europe, where grid stability has increased with increasing PV.🔌💡
www.planetarytech.earth/posts/high-r...
Moreover, as a counterexample, here is Germany, which I believe is in Europe, where grid stability has increased with increasing PV.🔌💡
www.planetarytech.earth/posts/high-r...
Received a fundraising email for "the world's first AI platform for end-of-life (EOL) pet care".
Feels like perhaps we are reaching peak sock puppet.
AgAIn.
Feels like perhaps we are reaching peak sock puppet.
AgAIn.
October 17, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Received a fundraising email for "the world's first AI platform for end-of-life (EOL) pet care".
Feels like perhaps we are reaching peak sock puppet.
AgAIn.
Feels like perhaps we are reaching peak sock puppet.
AgAIn.
Festival of Lights, last night, Berlin.
October 15, 2025 at 7:08 AM
Festival of Lights, last night, Berlin.
October 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Had a nice interaction with a hummingbird this morning, who flew up to look me in the eye before diving in to sample the #Seattle October (!) flowers in our garden. (Green blur in middle of photo.)
October 6, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Had a nice interaction with a hummingbird this morning, who flew up to look me in the eye before diving in to sample the #Seattle October (!) flowers in our garden. (Green blur in middle of photo.)
But obviously an energy system, in a place, at a time, can change. And energy systems in different places at the same time can be quite different.
E.g., re storage impacting curtailment, extant pumped hydro is *very* inhomogeneous.
www.statista.com/statistics/6...
E.g., re storage impacting curtailment, extant pumped hydro is *very* inhomogeneous.
www.statista.com/statistics/6...
October 6, 2025 at 4:15 PM
But obviously an energy system, in a place, at a time, can change. And energy systems in different places at the same time can be quite different.
E.g., re storage impacting curtailment, extant pumped hydro is *very* inhomogeneous.
www.statista.com/statistics/6...
E.g., re storage impacting curtailment, extant pumped hydro is *very* inhomogeneous.
www.statista.com/statistics/6...
Literal late bloomer. Also facing away from the sun. 🤷♂️
September 30, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Literal late bloomer. Also facing away from the sun. 🤷♂️
Ambush predator, perched in waiting.
September 30, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Ambush predator, perched in waiting.
September 29, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Just sayin'
"The AI boom is of comparable size [to both the telecom/dotcom bubble of the 1990s (red line) and the housing boom of 2006 (purple)].
A sharp reversal of that could easily land the gradually slowing US economy in recession."
AI boom, AI bust?
www.ft.com/content/c81d...
"The AI boom is of comparable size [to both the telecom/dotcom bubble of the 1990s (red line) and the housing boom of 2006 (purple)].
A sharp reversal of that could easily land the gradually slowing US economy in recession."
AI boom, AI bust?
www.ft.com/content/c81d...
September 29, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Just sayin'
"The AI boom is of comparable size [to both the telecom/dotcom bubble of the 1990s (red line) and the housing boom of 2006 (purple)].
A sharp reversal of that could easily land the gradually slowing US economy in recession."
AI boom, AI bust?
www.ft.com/content/c81d...
"The AI boom is of comparable size [to both the telecom/dotcom bubble of the 1990s (red line) and the housing boom of 2006 (purple)].
A sharp reversal of that could easily land the gradually slowing US economy in recession."
AI boom, AI bust?
www.ft.com/content/c81d...
September 28, 2025 at 2:07 AM