Reposted by Richard Skinner
Local media is calling it: Katie Wilson will be the next mayor of Seattle.
Wilson ousts Mayor Bruce Harrell after running as a progressive challenger.
Her win is a west coast companion to Mamdani’s as a statement victory for the left.
Wilson ousts Mayor Bruce Harrell after running as a progressive challenger.
Her win is a west coast companion to Mamdani’s as a statement victory for the left.
November 13, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Local media is calling it: Katie Wilson will be the next mayor of Seattle.
Wilson ousts Mayor Bruce Harrell after running as a progressive challenger.
Her win is a west coast companion to Mamdani’s as a statement victory for the left.
Wilson ousts Mayor Bruce Harrell after running as a progressive challenger.
Her win is a west coast companion to Mamdani’s as a statement victory for the left.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
What was YouGov cooking?
Their final Virginia poll was underrated
Shout out to Chaz and State Navigate for getting LG, AG, and House of Delegates right as well as top of ticket
YouGov just had Governor
Their final Virginia poll was underrated
Shout out to Chaz and State Navigate for getting LG, AG, and House of Delegates right as well as top of ticket
YouGov just had Governor
November 13, 2025 at 12:25 AM
What was YouGov cooking?
Their final Virginia poll was underrated
Shout out to Chaz and State Navigate for getting LG, AG, and House of Delegates right as well as top of ticket
YouGov just had Governor
Their final Virginia poll was underrated
Shout out to Chaz and State Navigate for getting LG, AG, and House of Delegates right as well as top of ticket
YouGov just had Governor
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Kaine's op-ed over-explains his decision to end the CR filibuster. I don't believe for a minute that Kaine gave much weight to the possible demise of the filibuster by the Rs. Besides, Repubs hate Obamacare at least as much as the shutdown and were not about to nuke the filibuster to get it done.
November 13, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Kaine's op-ed over-explains his decision to end the CR filibuster. I don't believe for a minute that Kaine gave much weight to the possible demise of the filibuster by the Rs. Besides, Repubs hate Obamacare at least as much as the shutdown and were not about to nuke the filibuster to get it done.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Many men think they're much smarter than they actually are?
DO NOT REPEAT THIS INSIGHT
DO NOT REPEAT THIS INSIGHT
Why. Were. So. Many. Men. Regularly. Emailing. Jeff. Epstein. After. He. Was. A. Known. Pedophile?
November 12, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Many men think they're much smarter than they actually are?
DO NOT REPEAT THIS INSIGHT
DO NOT REPEAT THIS INSIGHT
Reposted by Richard Skinner
BREAKING: Democratic Rep. Adelita Grijalva has finally been sworn in after a 7-week delay.
November 12, 2025 at 9:15 PM
BREAKING: Democratic Rep. Adelita Grijalva has finally been sworn in after a 7-week delay.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
HD-41 voted for Trump by around 3% in 2024
Lily Franklin ran a textbook campaign on how to turn out young voters
But she also persuaded them to back Dems after it was close last year
A lot Dems can learn from her campaign about organizing on campus
Lily Franklin ran a textbook campaign on how to turn out young voters
But she also persuaded them to back Dems after it was close last year
A lot Dems can learn from her campaign about organizing on campus
November 12, 2025 at 9:39 PM
HD-41 voted for Trump by around 3% in 2024
Lily Franklin ran a textbook campaign on how to turn out young voters
But she also persuaded them to back Dems after it was close last year
A lot Dems can learn from her campaign about organizing on campus
Lily Franklin ran a textbook campaign on how to turn out young voters
But she also persuaded them to back Dems after it was close last year
A lot Dems can learn from her campaign about organizing on campus
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Kinda makes you think Trump has never been worried about a (likely non-existent) pee tape, but that he’s terrified about what the Russians might have gotten from Epstein.
November 12, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Kinda makes you think Trump has never been worried about a (likely non-existent) pee tape, but that he’s terrified about what the Russians might have gotten from Epstein.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
NEW HOUSE BREAKDOWN
219 Republicans
214 Democrats
(*GOP has 2 votes to spare to pass bills without needing Dems, assuming full attendance)
219 Republicans
214 Democrats
(*GOP has 2 votes to spare to pass bills without needing Dems, assuming full attendance)
"Congratulations, you're now a member of the United States Congress."
Rep. Adelita Grijalva, who was elected on Sept. 23, is sworn in today, Nov. 12.
Rep. Adelita Grijalva, who was elected on Sept. 23, is sworn in today, Nov. 12.
November 12, 2025 at 9:24 PM
NEW HOUSE BREAKDOWN
219 Republicans
214 Democrats
(*GOP has 2 votes to spare to pass bills without needing Dems, assuming full attendance)
219 Republicans
214 Democrats
(*GOP has 2 votes to spare to pass bills without needing Dems, assuming full attendance)
Reposted by Richard Skinner
It happened
Spanberger is going to win by more than 15% with a few more votes to count
Don’t think she will get to 2 million votes, but she will win by over 500K net votes
Spanberger is going to win by more than 15% with a few more votes to count
Don’t think she will get to 2 million votes, but she will win by over 500K net votes
November 12, 2025 at 9:31 PM
It happened
Spanberger is going to win by more than 15% with a few more votes to count
Don’t think she will get to 2 million votes, but she will win by over 500K net votes
Spanberger is going to win by more than 15% with a few more votes to count
Don’t think she will get to 2 million votes, but she will win by over 500K net votes
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Boom. There it is. Signature 218. clerk.house.gov/DischargePet...
November 12, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Boom. There it is. Signature 218. clerk.house.gov/DischargePet...
Reposted by Richard Skinner
So the history of this is that presidential approval bounces back quickly once shutdowns end. But no one has ever acted the way Trump has acted, and his policies taking effect are very unpopular. Also never been a shutdown during year one; this could just be honeymoon wearing off.
Stay tuned!
Stay tuned!
Trump dips below 40% approval on @gelliottmorris.com's tracker for the first time.
November 12, 2025 at 6:04 PM
So the history of this is that presidential approval bounces back quickly once shutdowns end. But no one has ever acted the way Trump has acted, and his policies taking effect are very unpopular. Also never been a shutdown during year one; this could just be honeymoon wearing off.
Stay tuned!
Stay tuned!
Reposted by Richard Skinner
In HD 41, Franklin won provisionals(including a ton of SDRs) 1522(85%)- 266(15%) with a roughly 70 point margin!!!
One of biggest red flags for Dems in 2024 was barley winning provisionals in Virginia
These are mainly same-day registrations from younger and less engaged voters
Basically lowest propensity voters
Spanberger winning them big this year
Warning sign for Republicans now
These are mainly same-day registrations from younger and less engaged voters
Basically lowest propensity voters
Spanberger winning them big this year
Warning sign for Republicans now
PWC reported its provisionals late last night & Spanberger won them by roughly 60%
In 2024, Harris won them by 7%.
Final margins in PWC:
Harris +17.9
Spanberger +34.3
Hashmi +31.3
Jones +26.2
In 2024, Harris won them by 7%.
Final margins in PWC:
Harris +17.9
Spanberger +34.3
Hashmi +31.3
Jones +26.2
November 12, 2025 at 7:21 PM
In HD 41, Franklin won provisionals(including a ton of SDRs) 1522(85%)- 266(15%) with a roughly 70 point margin!!!
Pooled and re-analyzed NJ/VA exit poll data to see which Trump voters were likeliest to vote Democrat for governor
While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters
And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%)
1/2
While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters
And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%)
1/2
NYC isn't the country...
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
November 12, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Democrats improved most in elections where turnout dropped the most & in Hispanic areas
x.com/theeconomist...
x.com/theeconomist...
November 12, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Democrats improved most in elections where turnout dropped the most & in Hispanic areas
x.com/theeconomist...
x.com/theeconomist...
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Younger Trump were likelier to flip:
12% of <45 (women more than men)
5% of 45+
Notable: 13% of White voters <30
Moms > dads:
14% moms
4% dads
5% no kids
Those pinched financially:
14% family incomes <50K
5% higher incomes
14% of those falling behind
5% of those getting ahead/holding steady
2/2
12% of <45 (women more than men)
5% of 45+
Notable: 13% of White voters <30
Moms > dads:
14% moms
4% dads
5% no kids
Those pinched financially:
14% family incomes <50K
5% higher incomes
14% of those falling behind
5% of those getting ahead/holding steady
2/2
November 12, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Younger Trump were likelier to flip:
12% of <45 (women more than men)
5% of 45+
Notable: 13% of White voters <30
Moms > dads:
14% moms
4% dads
5% no kids
Those pinched financially:
14% family incomes <50K
5% higher incomes
14% of those falling behind
5% of those getting ahead/holding steady
2/2
12% of <45 (women more than men)
5% of 45+
Notable: 13% of White voters <30
Moms > dads:
14% moms
4% dads
5% no kids
Those pinched financially:
14% family incomes <50K
5% higher incomes
14% of those falling behind
5% of those getting ahead/holding steady
2/2
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Pooled and re-analyzed NJ/VA exit poll data to see which Trump voters were likeliest to vote Democrat for governor
While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters
And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%)
1/2
While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters
And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%)
1/2
NYC isn't the country...
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
The voters Mamdani added to the Democratic coalition in New York, a CBS News analysis
Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign turned out lots of voters who didn't back Kamala Harris last year — they are ethnically diverse, younger and less affluent.
www.cbsnews.com
November 12, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Pooled and re-analyzed NJ/VA exit poll data to see which Trump voters were likeliest to vote Democrat for governor
While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters
And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%)
1/2
While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters
And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%)
1/2
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Anxiety about *change* to health care has been a key factor in several consequential elections: 1994 (Clinton plan), 2010 (ACA), and (to some degree) 2018 . Even if people are unhappy w/ health care costs and choices, change is terrifying. GOP setting itself up on the wrong side of this dynamic. 1/3
November 11, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Anxiety about *change* to health care has been a key factor in several consequential elections: 1994 (Clinton plan), 2010 (ACA), and (to some degree) 2018 . Even if people are unhappy w/ health care costs and choices, change is terrifying. GOP setting itself up on the wrong side of this dynamic. 1/3
The "new coalition" that shifted to Trump in 2024 -- Asian/Hispanic, younger (especially young men), less engaged -- appears to be transient, unlike Trump's gains among WWC men in 2016.
NYC isn't the country...
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
The voters Mamdani added to the Democratic coalition in New York, a CBS News analysis
Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign turned out lots of voters who didn't back Kamala Harris last year — they are ethnically diverse, younger and less affluent.
www.cbsnews.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:22 AM
The "new coalition" that shifted to Trump in 2024 -- Asian/Hispanic, younger (especially young men), less engaged -- appears to be transient, unlike Trump's gains among WWC men in 2016.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
NYC isn't the country...
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
The voters Mamdani added to the Democratic coalition in New York, a CBS News analysis
Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign turned out lots of voters who didn't back Kamala Harris last year — they are ethnically diverse, younger and less affluent.
www.cbsnews.com
November 12, 2025 at 1:07 AM
NYC isn't the country...
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump
Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged
More below
6/6
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Plenty of talk Elaine Luria will mount a comeback
Spanberger won current version of VA-2 by around 7%
Even without lines changing, Luria would have a good chance
But if VA redistricting happens, could see bluer parts of Norfolk swapped in for redder rural areas
Spanberger won current version of VA-2 by around 7%
Even without lines changing, Luria would have a good chance
But if VA redistricting happens, could see bluer parts of Norfolk swapped in for redder rural areas
November 11, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Plenty of talk Elaine Luria will mount a comeback
Spanberger won current version of VA-2 by around 7%
Even without lines changing, Luria would have a good chance
But if VA redistricting happens, could see bluer parts of Norfolk swapped in for redder rural areas
Spanberger won current version of VA-2 by around 7%
Even without lines changing, Luria would have a good chance
But if VA redistricting happens, could see bluer parts of Norfolk swapped in for redder rural areas
Fascinating!
🧵
Deep dive on voters Mamdani added to Democratic coalition — specifically those who didn't vote for Kamala Harris in '24
They are younger, more ethnically diverse, and less affluent than consistent voters, and they voted for somewhat distinct reasons
Analysis: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
1/
Deep dive on voters Mamdani added to Democratic coalition — specifically those who didn't vote for Kamala Harris in '24
They are younger, more ethnically diverse, and less affluent than consistent voters, and they voted for somewhat distinct reasons
Analysis: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
1/
The voters Mamdani added to the Democratic coalition in New York, a CBS News analysis
Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign turned out lots of voters who didn't back Kamala Harris last year — they are ethnically diverse, younger and less affluent.
www.cbsnews.com
November 12, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Fascinating!
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Breaking: Mike Johnson just announced that he'll swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva on Wednesday at 4pm ET.
November 11, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Breaking: Mike Johnson just announced that he'll swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva on Wednesday at 4pm ET.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
The Status Interview – Or How To Write Up a Senate Purge List talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-s...
The Status Interview – Or How To Write Up a Senate Purge List
Over the last couple days I’ve argued both that the denouement of...
talkingpointsmemo.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:40 PM
The Status Interview – Or How To Write Up a Senate Purge List talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-s...
Reposted by Richard Skinner
This is really something. Trump/GOP efforts to rig midterms running into serious trouble
November 11, 2025 at 7:41 PM
This is really something. Trump/GOP efforts to rig midterms running into serious trouble
Reposted by Richard Skinner
The thing to understand about this is that this catastrophe in the UK has redounded to the political benefit of the very same people and political movement that pushed for it! Extremely perverse.
I wonder if the United States can learn anything from the last time a major industrialized country decided to isolate itself from the rest of the world?
Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)
Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)
November 11, 2025 at 5:23 PM
The thing to understand about this is that this catastrophe in the UK has redounded to the political benefit of the very same people and political movement that pushed for it! Extremely perverse.