Race might not get called for several days
AP will prob want to wait for a count of provisionals and late mail at least
Mejia will win provisionals, Malinowski prob wins late mail, but by less than his current VBM margin
AP will prob want to wait for a count of provisionals and late mail at least
Mejia will win provisionals, Malinowski prob wins late mail, but by less than his current VBM margin
I would consider Mejia favored, and am highly interested in a count of provisionals
She’ll clean up with them
She’ll clean up with them
Wow this is gonna be exceptionally close
February 6, 2026 at 3:52 AM
Race might not get called for several days
AP will prob want to wait for a count of provisionals and late mail at least
Mejia will win provisionals, Malinowski prob wins late mail, but by less than his current VBM margin
AP will prob want to wait for a count of provisionals and late mail at least
Mejia will win provisionals, Malinowski prob wins late mail, but by less than his current VBM margin
We went through this exact same thing with DDHQ miscalling Seattle Mayor in November
Even if Malinowski were to have won narrowly, it would still be an egregious call
They’ve repeatedly shown themselves to be more interested in speed than accuracy and it’s ridiculous
Even if Malinowski were to have won narrowly, it would still be an egregious call
They’ve repeatedly shown themselves to be more interested in speed than accuracy and it’s ridiculous
February 6, 2026 at 3:28 AM
We went through this exact same thing with DDHQ miscalling Seattle Mayor in November
Even if Malinowski were to have won narrowly, it would still be an egregious call
They’ve repeatedly shown themselves to be more interested in speed than accuracy and it’s ridiculous
Even if Malinowski were to have won narrowly, it would still be an egregious call
They’ve repeatedly shown themselves to be more interested in speed than accuracy and it’s ridiculous
Seriously it’s DDHQ made another terrible, wrong, premature call and mislead everyone with a terrible turnout estimate?
Wow, I didn’t know that, you’re just telling me now for the first time
Wow, I didn’t know that, you’re just telling me now for the first time
February 6, 2026 at 3:15 AM
Seriously it’s DDHQ made another terrible, wrong, premature call and mislead everyone with a terrible turnout estimate?
Wow, I didn’t know that, you’re just telling me now for the first time
Wow, I didn’t know that, you’re just telling me now for the first time
DDHQ doesn’t do precincts, they make a terrible estimate and then stick with the terrible estimate way too long every time
They’re always at the scene of these crimes
They’re always at the scene of these crimes
Why does DDHQ have >95% of the precincts count but all the others seem to have less?
February 6, 2026 at 3:13 AM
DDHQ doesn’t do precincts, they make a terrible estimate and then stick with the terrible estimate way too long every time
They’re always at the scene of these crimes
They’re always at the scene of these crimes
I would consider Mejia favored, and am highly interested in a count of provisionals
She’ll clean up with them
She’ll clean up with them
February 6, 2026 at 3:08 AM
I would consider Mejia favored, and am highly interested in a count of provisionals
She’ll clean up with them
She’ll clean up with them
Wow this is gonna be exceptionally close
February 6, 2026 at 3:04 AM
Wow this is gonna be exceptionally close
wrt campaigning in TX:
Something like >80% of the Texas population and 95% of a Dem’s potential voters live in the Triangle or the border counties
It is an immense waste of time and money to have an event in a 100 population county where you’ll get 20 votes
Please put those resources elsewhere
Something like >80% of the Texas population and 95% of a Dem’s potential voters live in the Triangle or the border counties
It is an immense waste of time and money to have an event in a 100 population county where you’ll get 20 votes
Please put those resources elsewhere
February 5, 2026 at 4:58 PM
wrt campaigning in TX:
Something like >80% of the Texas population and 95% of a Dem’s potential voters live in the Triangle or the border counties
It is an immense waste of time and money to have an event in a 100 population county where you’ll get 20 votes
Please put those resources elsewhere
Something like >80% of the Texas population and 95% of a Dem’s potential voters live in the Triangle or the border counties
It is an immense waste of time and money to have an event in a 100 population county where you’ll get 20 votes
Please put those resources elsewhere
Yesterday a door knocker showed up supporting Paxton over Cornyn, Toth over Crenshaw, Reitz, Huffines, etc 💀
It’s so interesting bc I’ve never seen TX Ds want a candidate more than Paxton or TX Rs want a candidate more than Crockett but elements of the bases don’t gaf at all
It’s so interesting bc I’ve never seen TX Ds want a candidate more than Paxton or TX Rs want a candidate more than Crockett but elements of the bases don’t gaf at all
February 3, 2026 at 1:55 PM
Yesterday a door knocker showed up supporting Paxton over Cornyn, Toth over Crenshaw, Reitz, Huffines, etc 💀
It’s so interesting bc I’ve never seen TX Ds want a candidate more than Paxton or TX Rs want a candidate more than Crockett but elements of the bases don’t gaf at all
It’s so interesting bc I’ve never seen TX Ds want a candidate more than Paxton or TX Rs want a candidate more than Crockett but elements of the bases don’t gaf at all
Another day of humiliation being a Dem in Texas
a duck wearing a santa hat holds a cup of coffee
ALT: a duck wearing a santa hat holds a cup of coffee
media.tenor.com
February 2, 2026 at 8:35 PM
Another day of humiliation being a Dem in Texas
Got the last eday vote overnight and Rehmet’s margin ticked up a bit
1) Ds should finally flip Tarrant’s county judge office this year
2) EDay should be bluer than EV statewide this year. Was true for Allred in 2024, and Ds are gaining with young & nonwhite (i.e. eday) voters
1) Ds should finally flip Tarrant’s county judge office this year
2) EDay should be bluer than EV statewide this year. Was true for Allred in 2024, and Ds are gaining with young & nonwhite (i.e. eday) voters
February 1, 2026 at 3:37 PM
Got the last eday vote overnight and Rehmet’s margin ticked up a bit
1) Ds should finally flip Tarrant’s county judge office this year
2) EDay should be bluer than EV statewide this year. Was true for Allred in 2024, and Ds are gaining with young & nonwhite (i.e. eday) voters
1) Ds should finally flip Tarrant’s county judge office this year
2) EDay should be bluer than EV statewide this year. Was true for Allred in 2024, and Ds are gaining with young & nonwhite (i.e. eday) voters
As usual, apologies for the election night spam
I’m ready for primary season to get underway though (I’ll be voting in a little over two weeks 😵💫)
TX Primary —> SCOWIS —> VAReferendums is the sequence of elections I’m most interested in the next few months
I’m ready for primary season to get underway though (I’ll be voting in a little over two weeks 😵💫)
TX Primary —> SCOWIS —> VAReferendums is the sequence of elections I’m most interested in the next few months
February 1, 2026 at 6:57 AM
As usual, apologies for the election night spam
I’m ready for primary season to get underway though (I’ll be voting in a little over two weeks 😵💫)
TX Primary —> SCOWIS —> VAReferendums is the sequence of elections I’m most interested in the next few months
I’m ready for primary season to get underway though (I’ll be voting in a little over two weeks 😵💫)
TX Primary —> SCOWIS —> VAReferendums is the sequence of elections I’m most interested in the next few months
Not to be that guy, but this is further proof that we don’t need a “turnout” or “juice the base” candidate for Sen
That work is already done!
We need someone who will keep the Republicans asleep as much as possible
That work is already done!
We need someone who will keep the Republicans asleep as much as possible
February 1, 2026 at 6:03 AM
Not to be that guy, but this is further proof that we don’t need a “turnout” or “juice the base” candidate for Sen
That work is already done!
We need someone who will keep the Republicans asleep as much as possible
That work is already done!
We need someone who will keep the Republicans asleep as much as possible
The D was heavily outspent here, statewide Rs pushed hard about this race, Trump posted repeatedly in the last day etc
A >30% swing is genuinely insane
Specials are weird, but I don't think you can ignore that this was the first competitive election since Minneapolis
A >30% swing is genuinely insane
Specials are weird, but I don't think you can ignore that this was the first competitive election since Minneapolis
in the sense that we just got almost all of eday and Rehmet (D) is leading by 14.4% in a district that Trump won by 17.4%
February 1, 2026 at 5:40 AM
The D was heavily outspent here, statewide Rs pushed hard about this race, Trump posted repeatedly in the last day etc
A >30% swing is genuinely insane
Specials are weird, but I don't think you can ignore that this was the first competitive election since Minneapolis
A >30% swing is genuinely insane
Specials are weird, but I don't think you can ignore that this was the first competitive election since Minneapolis
Dems had a turnout edge here in Nov, and they increased that further in the runoff
It's a mild correlation, but some of the bluest areas exceeded Nov turnout while the reddest didn't get close
Interestingly though, the swings toward Rehmet were uncorrelated with turnout
It's a mild correlation, but some of the bluest areas exceeded Nov turnout while the reddest didn't get close
Interestingly though, the swings toward Rehmet were uncorrelated with turnout
February 1, 2026 at 5:23 AM
Dems had a turnout edge here in Nov, and they increased that further in the runoff
It's a mild correlation, but some of the bluest areas exceeded Nov turnout while the reddest didn't get close
Interestingly though, the swings toward Rehmet were uncorrelated with turnout
It's a mild correlation, but some of the bluest areas exceeded Nov turnout while the reddest didn't get close
Interestingly though, the swings toward Rehmet were uncorrelated with turnout
in the sense that we just got almost all of eday and Rehmet (D) is leading by 14.4% in a district that Trump won by 17.4%
February 1, 2026 at 5:02 AM
in the sense that we just got almost all of eday and Rehmet (D) is leading by 14.4% in a district that Trump won by 17.4%
In Nov, the 11pm update took us from 5k eday to 18k eday votes
We're currently at 8.5k so hopefully we actually get a decent chunk
so im gonna go shower and I'll see yall then 🫡
We're currently at 8.5k so hopefully we actually get a decent chunk
so im gonna go shower and I'll see yall then 🫡
February 1, 2026 at 4:30 AM
In Nov, the 11pm update took us from 5k eday to 18k eday votes
We're currently at 8.5k so hopefully we actually get a decent chunk
so im gonna go shower and I'll see yall then 🫡
We're currently at 8.5k so hopefully we actually get a decent chunk
so im gonna go shower and I'll see yall then 🫡
I imagine you can't technically call this bc the update was still small, but we have nearly 1/4th of vote centers now
So unless something really strange has happened, this is realistically a question of margin atp
So unless something really strange has happened, this is realistically a question of margin atp
February 1, 2026 at 4:22 AM
I imagine you can't technically call this bc the update was still small, but we have nearly 1/4th of vote centers now
So unless something really strange has happened, this is realistically a question of margin atp
So unless something really strange has happened, this is realistically a question of margin atp
The five precincts with the most eday votes reported have swings between 18-20% from Nov (2025!!)
This was a slightly worse drop relative to the EV (his voteshare is 1-2% behind EV on avg), but when you're leading the EV by 12... lmao
This was a slightly worse drop relative to the EV (his voteshare is 1-2% behind EV on avg), but when you're leading the EV by 12... lmao
February 1, 2026 at 4:13 AM
The five precincts with the most eday votes reported have swings between 18-20% from Nov (2025!!)
This was a slightly worse drop relative to the EV (his voteshare is 1-2% behind EV on avg), but when you're leading the EV by 12... lmao
This was a slightly worse drop relative to the EV (his voteshare is 1-2% behind EV on avg), but when you're leading the EV by 12... lmao
checking the precinct data but obviously another very very good drop for Rehmet
February 1, 2026 at 4:00 AM
checking the precinct data but obviously another very very good drop for Rehmet
Most important caveat I can offer here is that Tarrant has countywide voting, anyone can vote at any vote center
so we can't fully know when a precinct is actually done, esp with so few votes
We'll see if anything looks different in this next drop
so we can't fully know when a precinct is actually done, esp with so few votes
We'll see if anything looks different in this next drop
messy spreadsheet data for yall
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
February 1, 2026 at 3:42 AM
Most important caveat I can offer here is that Tarrant has countywide voting, anyone can vote at any vote center
so we can't fully know when a precinct is actually done, esp with so few votes
We'll see if anything looks different in this next drop
so we can't fully know when a precinct is actually done, esp with so few votes
We'll see if anything looks different in this next drop
messy spreadsheet data for yall
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
February 1, 2026 at 3:33 AM
messy spreadsheet data for yall
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
I'll give it another eday drop bc this one was small, but the eday numbers we did get point to a Rehmet win that might not be all that close in SD9
February 1, 2026 at 3:24 AM
I'll give it another eday drop bc this one was small, but the eday numbers we did get point to a Rehmet win that might not be all that close in SD9
in other words Rehmet stocks are through the roof
Okay, looking at the precinct data, Rehmet overall *improved* vs the EV in the precincts that added eday votes and is broadly running ahead of Nov by a lot in those precincts as well
well i hate it here!
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
February 1, 2026 at 3:13 AM
in other words Rehmet stocks are through the roof
Okay, looking at the precinct data, Rehmet overall *improved* vs the EV in the precincts that added eday votes and is broadly running ahead of Nov by a lot in those precincts as well
well i hate it here!
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
February 1, 2026 at 3:09 AM
Okay, looking at the precinct data, Rehmet overall *improved* vs the EV in the precincts that added eday votes and is broadly running ahead of Nov by a lot in those precincts as well