Got the last eday vote overnight and Rehmet’s margin ticked up a bit
1) Ds should finally flip Tarrant’s county judge office this year
2) EDay should be bluer than EV statewide this year. Was true for Allred in 2024, and Ds are gaining with young & nonwhite (i.e. eday) voters
1) Ds should finally flip Tarrant’s county judge office this year
2) EDay should be bluer than EV statewide this year. Was true for Allred in 2024, and Ds are gaining with young & nonwhite (i.e. eday) voters
February 1, 2026 at 3:37 PM
Got the last eday vote overnight and Rehmet’s margin ticked up a bit
1) Ds should finally flip Tarrant’s county judge office this year
2) EDay should be bluer than EV statewide this year. Was true for Allred in 2024, and Ds are gaining with young & nonwhite (i.e. eday) voters
1) Ds should finally flip Tarrant’s county judge office this year
2) EDay should be bluer than EV statewide this year. Was true for Allred in 2024, and Ds are gaining with young & nonwhite (i.e. eday) voters
As usual, apologies for the election night spam
I’m ready for primary season to get underway though (I’ll be voting in a little over two weeks 😵💫)
TX Primary —> SCOWIS —> VAReferendums is the sequence of elections I’m most interested in the next few months
I’m ready for primary season to get underway though (I’ll be voting in a little over two weeks 😵💫)
TX Primary —> SCOWIS —> VAReferendums is the sequence of elections I’m most interested in the next few months
February 1, 2026 at 6:57 AM
As usual, apologies for the election night spam
I’m ready for primary season to get underway though (I’ll be voting in a little over two weeks 😵💫)
TX Primary —> SCOWIS —> VAReferendums is the sequence of elections I’m most interested in the next few months
I’m ready for primary season to get underway though (I’ll be voting in a little over two weeks 😵💫)
TX Primary —> SCOWIS —> VAReferendums is the sequence of elections I’m most interested in the next few months
Not to be that guy, but this is further proof that we don’t need a “turnout” or “juice the base” candidate for Sen
That work is already done!
We need someone who will keep the Republicans asleep as much as possible
That work is already done!
We need someone who will keep the Republicans asleep as much as possible
February 1, 2026 at 6:03 AM
Not to be that guy, but this is further proof that we don’t need a “turnout” or “juice the base” candidate for Sen
That work is already done!
We need someone who will keep the Republicans asleep as much as possible
That work is already done!
We need someone who will keep the Republicans asleep as much as possible
The D was heavily outspent here, statewide Rs pushed hard about this race, Trump posted repeatedly in the last day etc
A >30% swing is genuinely insane
Specials are weird, but I don't think you can ignore that this was the first competitive election since Minneapolis
A >30% swing is genuinely insane
Specials are weird, but I don't think you can ignore that this was the first competitive election since Minneapolis
in the sense that we just got almost all of eday and Rehmet (D) is leading by 14.4% in a district that Trump won by 17.4%
February 1, 2026 at 5:40 AM
The D was heavily outspent here, statewide Rs pushed hard about this race, Trump posted repeatedly in the last day etc
A >30% swing is genuinely insane
Specials are weird, but I don't think you can ignore that this was the first competitive election since Minneapolis
A >30% swing is genuinely insane
Specials are weird, but I don't think you can ignore that this was the first competitive election since Minneapolis
Dems had a turnout edge here in Nov, and they increased that further in the runoff
It's a mild correlation, but some of the bluest areas exceeded Nov turnout while the reddest didn't get close
Interestingly though, the swings toward Rehmet were uncorrelated with turnout
It's a mild correlation, but some of the bluest areas exceeded Nov turnout while the reddest didn't get close
Interestingly though, the swings toward Rehmet were uncorrelated with turnout
February 1, 2026 at 5:23 AM
Dems had a turnout edge here in Nov, and they increased that further in the runoff
It's a mild correlation, but some of the bluest areas exceeded Nov turnout while the reddest didn't get close
Interestingly though, the swings toward Rehmet were uncorrelated with turnout
It's a mild correlation, but some of the bluest areas exceeded Nov turnout while the reddest didn't get close
Interestingly though, the swings toward Rehmet were uncorrelated with turnout
in the sense that we just got almost all of eday and Rehmet (D) is leading by 14.4% in a district that Trump won by 17.4%
February 1, 2026 at 5:02 AM
in the sense that we just got almost all of eday and Rehmet (D) is leading by 14.4% in a district that Trump won by 17.4%
In Nov, the 11pm update took us from 5k eday to 18k eday votes
We're currently at 8.5k so hopefully we actually get a decent chunk
so im gonna go shower and I'll see yall then 🫡
We're currently at 8.5k so hopefully we actually get a decent chunk
so im gonna go shower and I'll see yall then 🫡
February 1, 2026 at 4:30 AM
In Nov, the 11pm update took us from 5k eday to 18k eday votes
We're currently at 8.5k so hopefully we actually get a decent chunk
so im gonna go shower and I'll see yall then 🫡
We're currently at 8.5k so hopefully we actually get a decent chunk
so im gonna go shower and I'll see yall then 🫡
I imagine you can't technically call this bc the update was still small, but we have nearly 1/4th of vote centers now
So unless something really strange has happened, this is realistically a question of margin atp
So unless something really strange has happened, this is realistically a question of margin atp
February 1, 2026 at 4:22 AM
I imagine you can't technically call this bc the update was still small, but we have nearly 1/4th of vote centers now
So unless something really strange has happened, this is realistically a question of margin atp
So unless something really strange has happened, this is realistically a question of margin atp
The five precincts with the most eday votes reported have swings between 18-20% from Nov (2025!!)
This was a slightly worse drop relative to the EV (his voteshare is 1-2% behind EV on avg), but when you're leading the EV by 12... lmao
This was a slightly worse drop relative to the EV (his voteshare is 1-2% behind EV on avg), but when you're leading the EV by 12... lmao
February 1, 2026 at 4:13 AM
The five precincts with the most eday votes reported have swings between 18-20% from Nov (2025!!)
This was a slightly worse drop relative to the EV (his voteshare is 1-2% behind EV on avg), but when you're leading the EV by 12... lmao
This was a slightly worse drop relative to the EV (his voteshare is 1-2% behind EV on avg), but when you're leading the EV by 12... lmao
checking the precinct data but obviously another very very good drop for Rehmet
February 1, 2026 at 4:00 AM
checking the precinct data but obviously another very very good drop for Rehmet
Most important caveat I can offer here is that Tarrant has countywide voting, anyone can vote at any vote center
so we can't fully know when a precinct is actually done, esp with so few votes
We'll see if anything looks different in this next drop
so we can't fully know when a precinct is actually done, esp with so few votes
We'll see if anything looks different in this next drop
messy spreadsheet data for yall
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
February 1, 2026 at 3:42 AM
Most important caveat I can offer here is that Tarrant has countywide voting, anyone can vote at any vote center
so we can't fully know when a precinct is actually done, esp with so few votes
We'll see if anything looks different in this next drop
so we can't fully know when a precinct is actually done, esp with so few votes
We'll see if anything looks different in this next drop
messy spreadsheet data for yall
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
February 1, 2026 at 3:33 AM
messy spreadsheet data for yall
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
all %s are Rehmet % or changes in his %, so double those changes for margin shifts
I'll give it another eday drop bc this one was small, but the eday numbers we did get point to a Rehmet win that might not be all that close in SD9
February 1, 2026 at 3:24 AM
I'll give it another eday drop bc this one was small, but the eday numbers we did get point to a Rehmet win that might not be all that close in SD9
in other words Rehmet stocks are through the roof
Okay, looking at the precinct data, Rehmet overall *improved* vs the EV in the precincts that added eday votes and is broadly running ahead of Nov by a lot in those precincts as well
well i hate it here!
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
February 1, 2026 at 3:13 AM
in other words Rehmet stocks are through the roof
Okay, looking at the precinct data, Rehmet overall *improved* vs the EV in the precincts that added eday votes and is broadly running ahead of Nov by a lot in those precincts as well
well i hate it here!
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
February 1, 2026 at 3:09 AM
Okay, looking at the precinct data, Rehmet overall *improved* vs the EV in the precincts that added eday votes and is broadly running ahead of Nov by a lot in those precincts as well
well i hate it here!
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
February 1, 2026 at 2:56 AM
well i hate it here!
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
but at least we have some comparisons we can do
i just went back and checked november
and the 9pm update only included 1k election day votes...
so, hoping for better than that!
and the 9pm update only included 1k election day votes...
so, hoping for better than that!
February 1, 2026 at 2:52 AM
i just went back and checked november
and the 9pm update only included 1k election day votes...
so, hoping for better than that!
and the 9pm update only included 1k election day votes...
so, hoping for better than that!
lowkey im glad they're changing early voting here now
it'll be nicer to wait for EV for a bit and have a smaller gap before eday votes than this -_-
it'll be nicer to wait for EV for a bit and have a smaller gap before eday votes than this -_-
February 1, 2026 at 2:25 AM
lowkey im glad they're changing early voting here now
it'll be nicer to wait for EV for a bit and have a smaller gap before eday votes than this -_-
it'll be nicer to wait for EV for a bit and have a smaller gap before eday votes than this -_-
this is how tarrant schedules out its pdf result reports btw
so the lack of updates isn't exactly surprising, but maybe they'll grace us with some eday votes early z_z
so the lack of updates isn't exactly surprising, but maybe they'll grace us with some eday votes early z_z
February 1, 2026 at 2:03 AM
this is how tarrant schedules out its pdf result reports btw
so the lack of updates isn't exactly surprising, but maybe they'll grace us with some eday votes early z_z
so the lack of updates isn't exactly surprising, but maybe they'll grace us with some eday votes early z_z
this one is going about as expected
February 1, 2026 at 1:14 AM
this one is going about as expected
Rehmet does much better in EV this time, leading by 12 when he lost it by 12 in R1
Might have been distorted by the storm, but very promising start
Might have been distorted by the storm, but very promising start
February 1, 2026 at 1:01 AM
Rehmet does much better in EV this time, leading by 12 when he lost it by 12 in R1
Might have been distorted by the storm, but very promising start
Might have been distorted by the storm, but very promising start
Rehmet did 15% *better* on Election Day in the first round
But with EV kneecapped by the winter storm, eday is that much more important this time around
But with EV kneecapped by the winter storm, eday is that much more important this time around
January 31, 2026 at 9:41 PM
Rehmet did 15% *better* on Election Day in the first round
But with EV kneecapped by the winter storm, eday is that much more important this time around
But with EV kneecapped by the winter storm, eday is that much more important this time around
Warsh and Hassett kinda mirror Bondi and Gaetz imo (not in the criminal sense)
Hassett, like Gaetz, would be an obvious joke. No one would take him seriously. But Warsh would be just as hackish, just with an undeserved guise of seriousness (like some tried to afford Bondi)
Hassett, like Gaetz, would be an obvious joke. No one would take him seriously. But Warsh would be just as hackish, just with an undeserved guise of seriousness (like some tried to afford Bondi)
January 30, 2026 at 2:31 AM
Warsh and Hassett kinda mirror Bondi and Gaetz imo (not in the criminal sense)
Hassett, like Gaetz, would be an obvious joke. No one would take him seriously. But Warsh would be just as hackish, just with an undeserved guise of seriousness (like some tried to afford Bondi)
Hassett, like Gaetz, would be an obvious joke. No one would take him seriously. But Warsh would be just as hackish, just with an undeserved guise of seriousness (like some tried to afford Bondi)
