Dj
@djsoke.bsky.social
My stimulant delivery has been repeatedly delayed and I need to be up by 5 tomorrow
good luck me
good luck me
November 20, 2025 at 3:48 AM
My stimulant delivery has been repeatedly delayed and I need to be up by 5 tomorrow
good luck me
good luck me
This only matters on the margins but the scheduling of the TN07 special feels a bit self-impeding from Rs
EV window runs directly into Thanksgiving: EV is 1 day shorter, but Davidson is the only county in the district offering a full final day of EV on that Wed
EV window runs directly into Thanksgiving: EV is 1 day shorter, but Davidson is the only county in the district offering a full final day of EV on that Wed
November 20, 2025 at 2:22 AM
This only matters on the margins but the scheduling of the TN07 special feels a bit self-impeding from Rs
EV window runs directly into Thanksgiving: EV is 1 day shorter, but Davidson is the only county in the district offering a full final day of EV on that Wed
EV window runs directly into Thanksgiving: EV is 1 day shorter, but Davidson is the only county in the district offering a full final day of EV on that Wed
I’m Steyer-pilled in California atp
Unleash a couple hundred million to clear the primary field sir 🫡
Unleash a couple hundred million to clear the primary field sir 🫡
November 19, 2025 at 11:21 PM
I’m Steyer-pilled in California atp
Unleash a couple hundred million to clear the primary field sir 🫡
Unleash a couple hundred million to clear the primary field sir 🫡
I am interested to see if rural/Rep turnout picks up today in TN07 after the Kamala visit, but Chatham county is opening an additional location and Williamson is opening 2
So those two will see big turnout increases regardless, not bc of a “surge” 🙂↔️
So those two will see big turnout increases regardless, not bc of a “surge” 🙂↔️
November 19, 2025 at 6:50 PM
I am interested to see if rural/Rep turnout picks up today in TN07 after the Kamala visit, but Chatham county is opening an additional location and Williamson is opening 2
So those two will see big turnout increases regardless, not bc of a “surge” 🙂↔️
So those two will see big turnout increases regardless, not bc of a “surge” 🙂↔️
I think you can fairly criticize the showboating but I do find the ardent defense of Garcia’s actions to be sooo embarrassing
November 18, 2025 at 8:09 PM
I think you can fairly criticize the showboating but I do find the ardent defense of Garcia’s actions to be sooo embarrassing
I think the Supreme Court will intervene to uphold the Texas map but it would be objectively hilarious if the gerrymander which started all of this doesn’t even go through
November 18, 2025 at 7:25 PM
I think the Supreme Court will intervene to uphold the Texas map but it would be objectively hilarious if the gerrymander which started all of this doesn’t even go through
in things literally no one asked for here are my personal top 10 pop songs this year (alphabetical order)
November 18, 2025 at 3:43 AM
in things literally no one asked for here are my personal top 10 pop songs this year (alphabetical order)
so ik a lot of Talarico stanning happens in my replies but this is my truth
I’m still put off by how clearly he was just using the walkout to boost his profile before his run and he obviously didn’t gaf about redistricting itself
And defending taking Adelson money is so…
I’m still put off by how clearly he was just using the walkout to boost his profile before his run and he obviously didn’t gaf about redistricting itself
And defending taking Adelson money is so…
November 17, 2025 at 9:37 PM
so ik a lot of Talarico stanning happens in my replies but this is my truth
I’m still put off by how clearly he was just using the walkout to boost his profile before his run and he obviously didn’t gaf about redistricting itself
And defending taking Adelson money is so…
I’m still put off by how clearly he was just using the walkout to boost his profile before his run and he obviously didn’t gaf about redistricting itself
And defending taking Adelson money is so…
Here's turnout through four days of EV in TN07
Over 20k votes cast, up 153.7% vs the same day in the primary. (This is also about 6.3% of total votes cast in 2024)
The more populous counties have been most overperforming vs the primary so far
Over 20k votes cast, up 153.7% vs the same day in the primary. (This is also about 6.3% of total votes cast in 2024)
The more populous counties have been most overperforming vs the primary so far
November 16, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Here's turnout through four days of EV in TN07
Over 20k votes cast, up 153.7% vs the same day in the primary. (This is also about 6.3% of total votes cast in 2024)
The more populous counties have been most overperforming vs the primary so far
Over 20k votes cast, up 153.7% vs the same day in the primary. (This is also about 6.3% of total votes cast in 2024)
The more populous counties have been most overperforming vs the primary so far
Miyares receiving fewer votes than he (and Herring!) received in 2021 is kind of silencing me lol
November 16, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Miyares receiving fewer votes than he (and Herring!) received in 2021 is kind of silencing me lol
Statewide %RV turnout is just a hair below 2021, 54.3% vs 54.9%, but the electorates are very different
2021: Reddest localities held up best, bluest lagged
2025: Bluest cities and counties excelled, reddest (esp in SWVA) didn't show up
2021: Reddest localities held up best, bluest lagged
2025: Bluest cities and counties excelled, reddest (esp in SWVA) didn't show up
November 15, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Statewide %RV turnout is just a hair below 2021, 54.3% vs 54.9%, but the electorates are very different
2021: Reddest localities held up best, bluest lagged
2025: Bluest cities and counties excelled, reddest (esp in SWVA) didn't show up
2021: Reddest localities held up best, bluest lagged
2025: Bluest cities and counties excelled, reddest (esp in SWVA) didn't show up
With Richmond’s update, we have what should be our final totals in VA
Spanberger +15.36%
Hashmi +11.56%
Jones +6.68%
Statewide turnout is 76.2% of 2024
Spanberger finished at nearly 85% of Harris’ vote total, and she also received more votes than Trump 2020 in VA
Spanberger +15.36%
Hashmi +11.56%
Jones +6.68%
Statewide turnout is 76.2% of 2024
Spanberger finished at nearly 85% of Harris’ vote total, and she also received more votes than Trump 2020 in VA
November 15, 2025 at 2:30 AM
With Richmond’s update, we have what should be our final totals in VA
Spanberger +15.36%
Hashmi +11.56%
Jones +6.68%
Statewide turnout is 76.2% of 2024
Spanberger finished at nearly 85% of Harris’ vote total, and she also received more votes than Trump 2020 in VA
Spanberger +15.36%
Hashmi +11.56%
Jones +6.68%
Statewide turnout is 76.2% of 2024
Spanberger finished at nearly 85% of Harris’ vote total, and she also received more votes than Trump 2020 in VA
Here are the 20 closest HoD races from VA this year, including all 13 flips
For educational purposes, I also put the net spending advantage/disadvatange the Dem candidate had
I wonder if any patterns will emerge 🧐
For educational purposes, I also put the net spending advantage/disadvatange the Dem candidate had
I wonder if any patterns will emerge 🧐
November 14, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Here are the 20 closest HoD races from VA this year, including all 13 flips
For educational purposes, I also put the net spending advantage/disadvatange the Dem candidate had
I wonder if any patterns will emerge 🧐
For educational purposes, I also put the net spending advantage/disadvatange the Dem candidate had
I wonder if any patterns will emerge 🧐
The winner of that NJ special primary is going to get like 10% of the vote at this rate lol
November 14, 2025 at 8:31 PM
The winner of that NJ special primary is going to get like 10% of the vote at this rate lol
Richmond is finally beginning to report!
So far 1500 of >4k provisionals, splitting Spanberger 92.5-7.5
So far 1500 of >4k provisionals, splitting Spanberger 92.5-7.5
November 14, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Richmond is finally beginning to report!
So far 1500 of >4k provisionals, splitting Spanberger 92.5-7.5
So far 1500 of >4k provisionals, splitting Spanberger 92.5-7.5
Albemarle County fully in (surrounds Charlottesville); was Harris +33.9
Spanberger +40.9
Hashmi +36.9
Jones +31.1
Turnout 83% of 2024, Spanberger at 89% of Harris’ vote total
UVA precinct: Spanberger +77.5
Harris +63.5 (before provisionals, prob by less including them)
Spanberger +40.9
Hashmi +36.9
Jones +31.1
Turnout 83% of 2024, Spanberger at 89% of Harris’ vote total
UVA precinct: Spanberger +77.5
Harris +63.5 (before provisionals, prob by less including them)
November 14, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Albemarle County fully in (surrounds Charlottesville); was Harris +33.9
Spanberger +40.9
Hashmi +36.9
Jones +31.1
Turnout 83% of 2024, Spanberger at 89% of Harris’ vote total
UVA precinct: Spanberger +77.5
Harris +63.5 (before provisionals, prob by less including them)
Spanberger +40.9
Hashmi +36.9
Jones +31.1
Turnout 83% of 2024, Spanberger at 89% of Harris’ vote total
UVA precinct: Spanberger +77.5
Harris +63.5 (before provisionals, prob by less including them)
I’m guessing 10-15 counties in Texas will cast more raw votes in 2026 than in 2024
I’ll revisit after the primary but that’s my truth for now
I’ll revisit after the primary but that’s my truth for now
November 14, 2025 at 5:33 PM
I’m guessing 10-15 counties in Texas will cast more raw votes in 2026 than in 2024
I’ll revisit after the primary but that’s my truth for now
I’ll revisit after the primary but that’s my truth for now
ready to hear something unhinged
Montgomery County, Tennessee
day 1 of ev: 51.4% of 2024's day 1
day 2 of ev: 43.5% of 2024's day 2
Montgomery County, Tennessee
day 1 of ev: 51.4% of 2024's day 1
day 2 of ev: 43.5% of 2024's day 2
November 14, 2025 at 3:44 AM
ready to hear something unhinged
Montgomery County, Tennessee
day 1 of ev: 51.4% of 2024's day 1
day 2 of ev: 43.5% of 2024's day 2
Montgomery County, Tennessee
day 1 of ev: 51.4% of 2024's day 1
day 2 of ev: 43.5% of 2024's day 2
Clean margins right now
November 14, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Clean margins right now
Charlottesville, VA
Harris +68.3
Spanberger +78.1
Hashmi +74.6
Jones +70.5
Turnout in the city was 80.6% of 2024
Harris +68.3
Spanberger +78.1
Hashmi +74.6
Jones +70.5
Turnout in the city was 80.6% of 2024
November 13, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Charlottesville, VA
Harris +68.3
Spanberger +78.1
Hashmi +74.6
Jones +70.5
Turnout in the city was 80.6% of 2024
Harris +68.3
Spanberger +78.1
Hashmi +74.6
Jones +70.5
Turnout in the city was 80.6% of 2024
Manassas City, the other plurality Latino city, voted Harris +14.8
Spanberger +31
Hashmi +27.1
Jones +23
The two majority Hispanic precincts:
001: Harris +25 —> Spanberger +46
002: Harris +11.3 —> Spanberger +34.7
Spanberger +31
Hashmi +27.1
Jones +23
The two majority Hispanic precincts:
001: Harris +25 —> Spanberger +46
002: Harris +11.3 —> Spanberger +34.7
November 13, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Manassas City, the other plurality Latino city, voted Harris +14.8
Spanberger +31
Hashmi +27.1
Jones +23
The two majority Hispanic precincts:
001: Harris +25 —> Spanberger +46
002: Harris +11.3 —> Spanberger +34.7
Spanberger +31
Hashmi +27.1
Jones +23
The two majority Hispanic precincts:
001: Harris +25 —> Spanberger +46
002: Harris +11.3 —> Spanberger +34.7
Last big chunk of votes left in VA is Richmond, which hasn’t updated since election night (around 6k outstanding there)
Then Albemarle, Alexandria, Charlottesville, Hampton, & Norfolk combine for ~6k provisionals and with Richmond that’s 95% of what’s left
Then Albemarle, Alexandria, Charlottesville, Hampton, & Norfolk combine for ~6k provisionals and with Richmond that’s 95% of what’s left
November 13, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Last big chunk of votes left in VA is Richmond, which hasn’t updated since election night (around 6k outstanding there)
Then Albemarle, Alexandria, Charlottesville, Hampton, & Norfolk combine for ~6k provisionals and with Richmond that’s 95% of what’s left
Then Albemarle, Alexandria, Charlottesville, Hampton, & Norfolk combine for ~6k provisionals and with Richmond that’s 95% of what’s left
Fredericksburg: Harris +31.5
Spanberger +43.8
Hashmi +38.4
Jones +33.8
Spanberger won provisionals 208-23 (+80%)
Harris won them 320-173 (+29%)
Spanberger +43.8
Hashmi +38.4
Jones +33.8
Spanberger won provisionals 208-23 (+80%)
Harris won them 320-173 (+29%)
November 13, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Fredericksburg: Harris +31.5
Spanberger +43.8
Hashmi +38.4
Jones +33.8
Spanberger won provisionals 208-23 (+80%)
Harris won them 320-173 (+29%)
Spanberger +43.8
Hashmi +38.4
Jones +33.8
Spanberger won provisionals 208-23 (+80%)
Harris won them 320-173 (+29%)
No one was really talking about this race but it ended up being among the closest in the state
Last finance report had the R outspending the Dem $210k-$45k
Last finance report had the R outspending the Dem $210k-$45k
November 13, 2025 at 3:47 PM
No one was really talking about this race but it ended up being among the closest in the state
Last finance report had the R outspending the Dem $210k-$45k
Last finance report had the R outspending the Dem $210k-$45k