Dj
@djsoke.bsky.social
did i accidentally cut off 4 localities from the 2025 data
well its possible so here's the 2025 graph with 4 extra dots
well its possible so here's the 2025 graph with 4 extra dots
November 15, 2025 at 4:01 AM
did i accidentally cut off 4 localities from the 2025 data
well its possible so here's the 2025 graph with 4 extra dots
well its possible so here's the 2025 graph with 4 extra dots
Statewide %RV turnout is just a hair below 2021, 54.3% vs 54.9%, but the electorates are very different
2021: Reddest localities held up best, bluest lagged
2025: Bluest cities and counties excelled, reddest (esp in SWVA) didn't show up
2021: Reddest localities held up best, bluest lagged
2025: Bluest cities and counties excelled, reddest (esp in SWVA) didn't show up
November 15, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Statewide %RV turnout is just a hair below 2021, 54.3% vs 54.9%, but the electorates are very different
2021: Reddest localities held up best, bluest lagged
2025: Bluest cities and counties excelled, reddest (esp in SWVA) didn't show up
2021: Reddest localities held up best, bluest lagged
2025: Bluest cities and counties excelled, reddest (esp in SWVA) didn't show up
With Richmond’s update, we have what should be our final totals in VA
Spanberger +15.36%
Hashmi +11.56%
Jones +6.68%
Statewide turnout is 76.2% of 2024
Spanberger finished at nearly 85% of Harris’ vote total, and she also received more votes than Trump 2020 in VA
Spanberger +15.36%
Hashmi +11.56%
Jones +6.68%
Statewide turnout is 76.2% of 2024
Spanberger finished at nearly 85% of Harris’ vote total, and she also received more votes than Trump 2020 in VA
November 15, 2025 at 2:30 AM
With Richmond’s update, we have what should be our final totals in VA
Spanberger +15.36%
Hashmi +11.56%
Jones +6.68%
Statewide turnout is 76.2% of 2024
Spanberger finished at nearly 85% of Harris’ vote total, and she also received more votes than Trump 2020 in VA
Spanberger +15.36%
Hashmi +11.56%
Jones +6.68%
Statewide turnout is 76.2% of 2024
Spanberger finished at nearly 85% of Harris’ vote total, and she also received more votes than Trump 2020 in VA
here's the same data just split into two
the spending numbers are what was last reported on vpap
the spending numbers are what was last reported on vpap
November 14, 2025 at 10:00 PM
here's the same data just split into two
the spending numbers are what was last reported on vpap
the spending numbers are what was last reported on vpap
Here are the 20 closest HoD races from VA this year, including all 13 flips
For educational purposes, I also put the net spending advantage/disadvatange the Dem candidate had
I wonder if any patterns will emerge 🧐
For educational purposes, I also put the net spending advantage/disadvatange the Dem candidate had
I wonder if any patterns will emerge 🧐
November 14, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Here are the 20 closest HoD races from VA this year, including all 13 flips
For educational purposes, I also put the net spending advantage/disadvatange the Dem candidate had
I wonder if any patterns will emerge 🧐
For educational purposes, I also put the net spending advantage/disadvatange the Dem candidate had
I wonder if any patterns will emerge 🧐
Richmond is finally beginning to report!
So far 1500 of >4k provisionals, splitting Spanberger 92.5-7.5
So far 1500 of >4k provisionals, splitting Spanberger 92.5-7.5
November 14, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Richmond is finally beginning to report!
So far 1500 of >4k provisionals, splitting Spanberger 92.5-7.5
So far 1500 of >4k provisionals, splitting Spanberger 92.5-7.5
Albemarle County fully in (surrounds Charlottesville); was Harris +33.9
Spanberger +40.9
Hashmi +36.9
Jones +31.1
Turnout 83% of 2024, Spanberger at 89% of Harris’ vote total
UVA precinct: Spanberger +77.5
Harris +63.5 (before provisionals, prob by less including them)
Spanberger +40.9
Hashmi +36.9
Jones +31.1
Turnout 83% of 2024, Spanberger at 89% of Harris’ vote total
UVA precinct: Spanberger +77.5
Harris +63.5 (before provisionals, prob by less including them)
November 14, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Albemarle County fully in (surrounds Charlottesville); was Harris +33.9
Spanberger +40.9
Hashmi +36.9
Jones +31.1
Turnout 83% of 2024, Spanberger at 89% of Harris’ vote total
UVA precinct: Spanberger +77.5
Harris +63.5 (before provisionals, prob by less including them)
Spanberger +40.9
Hashmi +36.9
Jones +31.1
Turnout 83% of 2024, Spanberger at 89% of Harris’ vote total
UVA precinct: Spanberger +77.5
Harris +63.5 (before provisionals, prob by less including them)
Here’s the 2024 congressional results, it was slightly less red at the presidential level but I couldn’t be bothered to figure out Trump’s marvin in the split counties
The ones highlighted in green are complete counties
Behn’s campaign has been (rightly) focused on Davidson/Williamson/MontCo
The ones highlighted in green are complete counties
Behn’s campaign has been (rightly) focused on Davidson/Williamson/MontCo
November 14, 2025 at 4:27 AM
Here’s the 2024 congressional results, it was slightly less red at the presidential level but I couldn’t be bothered to figure out Trump’s marvin in the split counties
The ones highlighted in green are complete counties
Behn’s campaign has been (rightly) focused on Davidson/Williamson/MontCo
The ones highlighted in green are complete counties
Behn’s campaign has been (rightly) focused on Davidson/Williamson/MontCo
Clean margins right now
November 14, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Clean margins right now
Charlottesville, VA
Harris +68.3
Spanberger +78.1
Hashmi +74.6
Jones +70.5
Turnout in the city was 80.6% of 2024
Harris +68.3
Spanberger +78.1
Hashmi +74.6
Jones +70.5
Turnout in the city was 80.6% of 2024
November 13, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Charlottesville, VA
Harris +68.3
Spanberger +78.1
Hashmi +74.6
Jones +70.5
Turnout in the city was 80.6% of 2024
Harris +68.3
Spanberger +78.1
Hashmi +74.6
Jones +70.5
Turnout in the city was 80.6% of 2024
No one was really talking about this race but it ended up being among the closest in the state
Last finance report had the R outspending the Dem $210k-$45k
Last finance report had the R outspending the Dem $210k-$45k
November 13, 2025 at 3:47 PM
No one was really talking about this race but it ended up being among the closest in the state
Last finance report had the R outspending the Dem $210k-$45k
Last finance report had the R outspending the Dem $210k-$45k
Fairfax in: provisionals 4812-1040 for Spanberger
Final margins:
Harris +34.7 in 2024
Spanberger +47.8(!)
Hashmi +43.4
Jones +37.4
Spanberger got 85.4%(!) of Harris' vote total
Sears at 63.8% of Trump's total
Final margins:
Harris +34.7 in 2024
Spanberger +47.8(!)
Hashmi +43.4
Jones +37.4
Spanberger got 85.4%(!) of Harris' vote total
Sears at 63.8% of Trump's total
November 13, 2025 at 12:28 AM
Fairfax in: provisionals 4812-1040 for Spanberger
Final margins:
Harris +34.7 in 2024
Spanberger +47.8(!)
Hashmi +43.4
Jones +37.4
Spanberger got 85.4%(!) of Harris' vote total
Sears at 63.8% of Trump's total
Final margins:
Harris +34.7 in 2024
Spanberger +47.8(!)
Hashmi +43.4
Jones +37.4
Spanberger got 85.4%(!) of Harris' vote total
Sears at 63.8% of Trump's total
Payton gets 85% of the provisionals but it’s not quite enough and he loses a squeaker
This one wasn’t really targeted by Dems this year but immediately jumps to the top of the target list for 2027
This one wasn’t really targeted by Dems this year but immediately jumps to the top of the target list for 2027
November 12, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Payton gets 85% of the provisionals but it’s not quite enough and he loses a squeaker
This one wasn’t really targeted by Dems this year but immediately jumps to the top of the target list for 2027
This one wasn’t really targeted by Dems this year but immediately jumps to the top of the target list for 2027
Im sorry, she’ll take office at 79. That is my bad!
Her image took a hit as soon as she announced her senate candidacy & this happens to every gov who runs. She wasn’t popular enough to stay positive
I was referring to her primary polling but she trails Collins in the MPRC poll out today too
Her image took a hit as soon as she announced her senate candidacy & this happens to every gov who runs. She wasn’t popular enough to stay positive
I was referring to her primary polling but she trails Collins in the MPRC poll out today too
November 12, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Im sorry, she’ll take office at 79. That is my bad!
Her image took a hit as soon as she announced her senate candidacy & this happens to every gov who runs. She wasn’t popular enough to stay positive
I was referring to her primary polling but she trails Collins in the MPRC poll out today too
Her image took a hit as soon as she announced her senate candidacy & this happens to every gov who runs. She wasn’t popular enough to stay positive
I was referring to her primary polling but she trails Collins in the MPRC poll out today too
Liberty University needs to be ejected into outer space
November 12, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Liberty University needs to be ejected into outer space
Stop the count right now!!
November 12, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Stop the count right now!!
Montgomery has been releasing its provisionals in bits, but got most of them just now
Spanberger 1628-270
Franklin 1522-266
Franklin’s margin in HD41 is above 6.5% now
Spanberger 1628-270
Franklin 1522-266
Franklin’s margin in HD41 is above 6.5% now
November 12, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Montgomery has been releasing its provisionals in bits, but got most of them just now
Spanberger 1628-270
Franklin 1522-266
Franklin’s margin in HD41 is above 6.5% now
Spanberger 1628-270
Franklin 1522-266
Franklin’s margin in HD41 is above 6.5% now
Okay but stop the count fr
+15 looks much nicer than +15.2 will
+15 looks much nicer than +15.2 will
November 12, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Okay but stop the count fr
+15 looks much nicer than +15.2 will
+15 looks much nicer than +15.2 will
PWC reported its provisionals late last night & Spanberger won them by roughly 60%
In 2024, Harris won them by 7%.
Final margins in PWC:
Harris +17.9
Spanberger +34.3
Hashmi +31.3
Jones +26.2
In 2024, Harris won them by 7%.
Final margins in PWC:
Harris +17.9
Spanberger +34.3
Hashmi +31.3
Jones +26.2
November 12, 2025 at 12:50 PM
PWC reported its provisionals late last night & Spanberger won them by roughly 60%
In 2024, Harris won them by 7%.
Final margins in PWC:
Harris +17.9
Spanberger +34.3
Hashmi +31.3
Jones +26.2
In 2024, Harris won them by 7%.
Final margins in PWC:
Harris +17.9
Spanberger +34.3
Hashmi +31.3
Jones +26.2
If I were a newspaper/website I’d probably wanna be fairly discerning about where I get my results and calls from atp
November 12, 2025 at 12:26 AM
If I were a newspaper/website I’d probably wanna be fairly discerning about where I get my results and calls from atp
Wilson ahead by 91 *votes* in Seattle
November 11, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Wilson ahead by 91 *votes* in Seattle
Spanberger flips Caroline County
November 10, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Spanberger flips Caroline County