Steven S Smith
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Steven S Smith
@profstevensmith.bsky.social

Political scientist, ASU and Wash U. Congress, elections, public opinion, survey research. Husband, dad, granddad. RT ≠ endorsement. Personal views. https://stevesnotes.substack.com https://sites.wustl.edu/smith/

Steven S. Smith is Professor of Political Science at Arizona State University. He also is the Kate M. Gregg Emeritus Professor of Social Sciences and Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Washington University in St. Louis. For many years, he was the Director of the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy, He served on the faculties of George Washington University, Northwestern University, and the University of Minnesota and was a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Smith is one of the leading scholars of legislative institutions and congressional politics and is cited frequently by major news sources. He served as editor of Legislative Studies Quarterly and chaired the Legislative Studies Section of the American Political Science Association. He won the Barbara Sinclair Lecture Award from the American Political Science Association in 2023. .. more

Political science 62%
Business 12%

The killer ACA exchange premium rates will have been in effect for a month by then if there's no legislation. Let's see how the Senate moderates fight for ACA tax credits. Some Senate Repubs are primed to move far right with a new Trumpian policy.

Buried inside the deal to reopen government is a provision that would give Senators private right of action to sue for millions in damages over their phone records being analyzed by Jack Smith's team.
news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/...
Shutdown Deal Would Let Senators Sue Over Jack Smith Searches
Senators whose phone records were sought by Special Counsel Jack Smith would gain authority to sue for millions in damages under a provision buried in the Senate-advanced deal to reopen the government...
news.bloomberglaw.com

Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.

Yep

[Political science: Multidimensionality in tiny doses--treated as error in scaling models--but that is where legislative fights are often fought.]

So far, I have heard four distinct reasons for supporting the deal from the eight Democrats. Some rationalization, sure, but, as usual, real multidimensionality, too.
The certainty with which some of my favorite commentators have explained the Dem cave, Schumer's calculations, and the substitutability of Dem votes is uncanny.

The certainty with which some of my favorite commentators have explained the Dem cave, Schumer's calculations, and the substitutability of Dem votes is uncanny.

Nope. Money goes to consumers (presumably, those eligible for today's exchanges), who in turn buy insurance plans, but without subsidies.

You'll be shopping for insurance plans, not treatments.

So the Trump plan to end handing money to the insurance companies is to hand that money to the insurance companies.
Trump: "I am recommending to Senate Republicans that the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars currently being sent to money sucking Insurance Companies in order to save the bad Healthcare provided by ObamaCare, BE SENT DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE SO THAT THEY CAN PURCHASE THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, HEALTHCARE."

Far right taking up the nuclear option cause.
Trump on eliminating the filibuster:
“If we do it, we will never lose the midterms. And we will never lose the general election,”
And btw:
Russ Vought has now joined the 'nuke the filibuster'
chorus
Project 2025 is just humming along, kids

Reposted by Steven S. Smith

Trump on eliminating the filibuster:
“If we do it, we will never lose the midterms. And we will never lose the general election,”
And btw:
Russ Vought has now joined the 'nuke the filibuster'
chorus
Project 2025 is just humming along, kids
Trump: "I am recommending to Senate Republicans that the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars currently being sent to money sucking Insurance Companies in order to save the bad Healthcare provided by ObamaCare, BE SENT DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE SO THAT THEY CAN PURCHASE THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, HEALTHCARE."

www.gwlr.org

Any bets that the Antideficiency Act and Impoundment Control Act will double or triple in length four years from now (with a Dem in the White House)? Some tricky issues, but plenty of good ideas summarized in a few places...

Reposted by Steven S. Smith

In the wake of Nancy Pelosi's retirement announcement, I reflected a bit on my two very different interviews of her and even more so, her relationship with Harry Reid, which is detailed in an upcoming book you may have heard about.

My latest:

jonralston.substack.com/p/the-reid-p...
The Reid-Pelosi partnership
She was the "best speaker" in history; he was "Harryesque"
jonralston.substack.com

Not likely. 1980 OLC likely correct, particularly with 1981 OLC memo that filled in details. Likely would be upheld by this Supreme Court.
Did you know gov shutdowns aren’t in the Constitution, any law, or Court ruling?
They exist because of a 1980 OLC memo—a lawyer’s opinion that everyone just went along with. Before 1980, funding gaps didn’t cause shutdowns.

What one memo created, another can undo. How the next D admin can undo it:
Why America’s Government Shutdowns Exist and How to End Them
One Legal Memo Created The Shutdown Era. Another Can End It.
open.substack.com

There's no important procedural principle in a clean CR. That's not the problem. The problem is the problem: Ds offer one-year extension of ACA tax credits; Rs want radically smaller subsidies or even killing ACA. Rs believe it is now or never. D's believe them.
Did you know gov shutdowns aren’t in the Constitution, any law, or Court ruling?
They exist because of a 1980 OLC memo—a lawyer’s opinion that everyone just went along with. Before 1980, funding gaps didn’t cause shutdowns.

What one memo created, another can undo. How the next D admin can undo it:
Why America’s Government Shutdowns Exist and How to End Them
One Legal Memo Created The Shutdown Era. Another Can End It.
open.substack.com

[If I can get everything I want, we will never lose.]
Trump on ending the filibuster: "If we do it, we will never lose the midterms and we will never lose a general election ... it would be impossible to lose an election."

Lindsay Graham asks Ds, do you want to continue to send public $s to the insurance companies? Then says the next elections will produce change. We have been waiting for an R plan since Dole's half-hearted effort in 1996. Most Ds are happy to support a universal plan that excludes private insurance.
Trump on ending the filibuster: "If we do it, we will never lose the midterms and we will never lose a general election ... it would be impossible to lose an election."

Should I assume that we still don't know enough about the likely voter screens? They seem even less transparent than weighting methods.

Sure glad no friend of mine is Solicitor General while arguing this case before the Court.

More nuclear option pressure from DJT.
Trump blames shutdown for GOP election losses
Trump blames shutdown for GOP election losses
The president called for a quick end to the government funding lapse by eliminating the filibuster.
dlvr.it