Reposted by Richard Skinner
JUST IN: Katie Wilson is now ahead of Mayor Bruce Harrell in the Seattle mayoral race.
Stay tuned for details on today's count.
Stay tuned for details on today's count.
November 10, 2025 at 11:54 PM
JUST IN: Katie Wilson is now ahead of Mayor Bruce Harrell in the Seattle mayoral race.
Stay tuned for details on today's count.
Stay tuned for details on today's count.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Democrats over-performed during the shutdown, polled well, and won elections. However, an ACA deal, nuclear Senate, or impoundment rules were a big stretch, at best, and mostly not feasible.
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
November 10, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Democrats over-performed during the shutdown, polled well, and won elections. However, an ACA deal, nuclear Senate, or impoundment rules were a big stretch, at best, and mostly not feasible.
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Off-year elections shouldn't be thought of as predictions of midterms *because things can change a lot in a year.* What they are useful for is a reality check for the other evidence of what's happening now, and the results were consistent with the polls and with the huge protests.
What sort of midterms do the Democrats' New Jersey and Virginia midterms point to? I had a look using historic results and wound up with a central estimate of D+6 and a confidence interval from R+5 to D+16. Not exactly conclusive! owenwinter.co.uk/2025/11/10/d...
November 10, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Off-year elections shouldn't be thought of as predictions of midterms *because things can change a lot in a year.* What they are useful for is a reality check for the other evidence of what's happening now, and the results were consistent with the polls and with the huge protests.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.
November 10, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
NEW: Dems easily flipped the sheriff's office in Pennsylvania's Bucks County, a big swing county in the Philly suburbs.
So? The incumbent GOP sheriff had contracted with ICE. His Dem challenger promised to end the contract.
Now he wants other swing-state Dems to look at his victory as a lesson:
So? The incumbent GOP sheriff had contracted with ICE. His Dem challenger promised to end the contract.
Now he wants other swing-state Dems to look at his victory as a lesson:
Voters Ousted This Pennsylvania Sheriff After He Signed Up to Collaborate With ICE - Bolts
A populous, swing county replaced its GOP sheriff on Tuesday after months of controversy over his joining ICE’s 287(g) program. The Democratic winner promises he’ll end the contract.
boltsmag.org
November 10, 2025 at 7:12 PM
NEW: Dems easily flipped the sheriff's office in Pennsylvania's Bucks County, a big swing county in the Philly suburbs.
So? The incumbent GOP sheriff had contracted with ICE. His Dem challenger promised to end the contract.
Now he wants other swing-state Dems to look at his victory as a lesson:
So? The incumbent GOP sheriff had contracted with ICE. His Dem challenger promised to end the contract.
Now he wants other swing-state Dems to look at his victory as a lesson:
I count 8/20 oldest House Dems as retiring or likely to be ousted by redistricting. Axios says Hoyer is next.
Democratic Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, who is the first Black woman to represent New Jersey in Congress, announces she won't seek reelection. Watson Coleman, who is 80, leaves behind a seat that, per calculations by The Downballot, favored Kamala Harris 61-37. www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downba...
November 10, 2025 at 7:14 PM
I count 8/20 oldest House Dems as retiring or likely to be ousted by redistricting. Axios says Hoyer is next.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
An Entirely too-early Assessment of the Senate Shutdown Deal/Vote
Democrats may have over-performed on policy and underperformed on politics.
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:46 PM
My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
Indies pretty divided....though this was 2 weeks ago.
From Oct. 16-24, 2025 Catawba-YouGov Survey of 1,000 North Carolinians:
"Who do you feel is responsible for the government shutdown?"
Democratic Party
Republican Party + President
All equally responsible
Overall & Partisan Self-ID (overall MOE +/- 3.79%; higher MOEs for subgroups)
#ncpol
"Who do you feel is responsible for the government shutdown?"
Democratic Party
Republican Party + President
All equally responsible
Overall & Partisan Self-ID (overall MOE +/- 3.79%; higher MOEs for subgroups)
#ncpol
November 10, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Indies pretty divided....though this was 2 weeks ago.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Election results showed a nationalized thermostatic backlash against the party of the president, similar to 1st Trump term but with even smaller candidate & issue effects & regardless of turnout.
November 5, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Election results showed a nationalized thermostatic backlash against the party of the president, similar to 1st Trump term but with even smaller candidate & issue effects & regardless of turnout.
Centrist pundits seem to have a different view of Senate cave than do centrist senators.
November 10, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Centrist pundits seem to have a different view of Senate cave than do centrist senators.
Who knows how much this affects anything, but very few senators face general election risk that > primary risk next year (Collins, maybe Ossoff). Appointed senators from OH & FL must worry about trouble from right. Cornyn more threatened by Paxton.
November 10, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Who knows how much this affects anything, but very few senators face general election risk that > primary risk next year (Collins, maybe Ossoff). Appointed senators from OH & FL must worry about trouble from right. Cornyn more threatened by Paxton.
Perceptive thread that helps me understand current situation better. Thanks!
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins.
Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
November 10, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Perceptive thread that helps me understand current situation better. Thanks!
Interesting leverage.
7) If it were me, I wouldn't agree to fund the FSGG approps bill that funds the WH/OMB without policy riders that take away the administration's funding to pursue things like impoundment, etc. Why should Russ Vought have any staff? Saying "no" here is a policy win. If they do it.
November 10, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Interesting leverage.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
A post that summarizes a lot of the problems Virginia Republicans had this election
November 9, 2025 at 9:21 PM
A post that summarizes a lot of the problems Virginia Republicans had this election
The long Democratic march through the suburban subdivisions continues....
In major upset, the New Jersey Democrats have flipped a seat in #LD25, a Trump+1 district in Morris County.
Despite no major help from the state Democrats, Marisa Sweeney will become the first Democrat to represent this district in over 30 years.
Despite no major help from the state Democrats, Marisa Sweeney will become the first Democrat to represent this district in over 30 years.
November 9, 2025 at 7:40 PM
The long Democratic march through the suburban subdivisions continues....
Reposted by Richard Skinner
In major upset, the New Jersey Democrats have flipped a seat in #LD25, a Trump+1 district in Morris County.
Despite no major help from the state Democrats, Marisa Sweeney will become the first Democrat to represent this district in over 30 years.
Despite no major help from the state Democrats, Marisa Sweeney will become the first Democrat to represent this district in over 30 years.
November 7, 2025 at 1:04 AM
In major upset, the New Jersey Democrats have flipped a seat in #LD25, a Trump+1 district in Morris County.
Despite no major help from the state Democrats, Marisa Sweeney will become the first Democrat to represent this district in over 30 years.
Despite no major help from the state Democrats, Marisa Sweeney will become the first Democrat to represent this district in over 30 years.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
In her landslide statewide win on Tuesday, Abigail Spanberger was able to win Virginia Beach by 11 points over Winsome Earle-Sears.
It's the best Democratic gubernatorial performance in Virginia's largest city in 60 years!
It's the best Democratic gubernatorial performance in Virginia's largest city in 60 years!
November 9, 2025 at 7:34 PM
In her landslide statewide win on Tuesday, Abigail Spanberger was able to win Virginia Beach by 11 points over Winsome Earle-Sears.
It's the best Democratic gubernatorial performance in Virginia's largest city in 60 years!
It's the best Democratic gubernatorial performance in Virginia's largest city in 60 years!
Reposted by Richard Skinner
CONTINETTI: “.. The off-year Democratic wave flooded Republican safe harbors. Democrats flipped at least 13 seats in Virginia’s House of Delegates. .. New Jersey Democrats will enjoy their largest Assembly majority in 52 years.”
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
November 9, 2025 at 5:38 PM
CONTINETTI: “.. The off-year Democratic wave flooded Republican safe harbors. Democrats flipped at least 13 seats in Virginia’s House of Delegates. .. New Jersey Democrats will enjoy their largest Assembly majority in 52 years.”
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
The GOP has a 100-80 majority in the GA House of Representatives.
Georgia Dems also win several state legislative seats in both chambers that Trump had won by more than 20 points (the darkest red on the maps on the left in this thread).
They even won a few House seats that Trump had won by more than 30 points
They even won a few House seats that Trump had won by more than 30 points
Dems won Georgia’s Public Service Commission elections by 25-point landslides—their largest for any office since 1998—and improved over 2024 everywhere.
These maps compare results by state House district for:
2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
These maps compare results by state House district for:
2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority
2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
November 9, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The GOP has a 100-80 majority in the GA House of Representatives.
Reposted by Richard Skinner
In Georgia’s statewide races on Tuesday, the two Democratic candidates won 8 counties where, in 2024, Kamala Harris had received UNDER 40%.
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
November 9, 2025 at 3:23 PM
In Georgia’s statewide races on Tuesday, the two Democratic candidates won 8 counties where, in 2024, Kamala Harris had received UNDER 40%.
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...
Reposted by Richard Skinner
The Death of Stalin (2017) is hopefully timely for many reasons but among them it reminds us that the whole "democracies think in four-year timelines, autocracies think in thousand-year timelines" thing is such horseshit
November 9, 2025 at 2:26 AM
The Death of Stalin (2017) is hopefully timely for many reasons but among them it reminds us that the whole "democracies think in four-year timelines, autocracies think in thousand-year timelines" thing is such horseshit
Reposted by Richard Skinner
scheduled the weekly roundup for tomorrow morning! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/mamdanis-y...
Mamdani's youthquake in New York City | Weekly roundup for November 9, 2025
The Mayor-elect drove historic turnout and a historically young electorate. Plus: Democrats made inroads with Trump supporters Tuesday; The role of cable news in Trump's 2024 win; + more!
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 9, 2025 at 12:40 AM
scheduled the weekly roundup for tomorrow morning! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/mamdanis-y...
Reposted by Richard Skinner
If Dems were to gain 6 VA Senate seats in 2027, that chamber would be 27D-13R, to go along with a 64D-36R (or better?) HoD & a Dem Gov/LG/AG, plus potentially a 9D-2R US House delegation & 2 Dem US Senators. Wow. t.co/UoVIpKyu8L h/t @drewsav.bsky.social @uncrewed.bsky.social
November 9, 2025 at 12:18 AM
If Dems were to gain 6 VA Senate seats in 2027, that chamber would be 27D-13R, to go along with a 64D-36R (or better?) HoD & a Dem Gov/LG/AG, plus potentially a 9D-2R US House delegation & 2 Dem US Senators. Wow. t.co/UoVIpKyu8L h/t @drewsav.bsky.social @uncrewed.bsky.social
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Reposted by Richard Skinner
Virginia also shows signs of Latino shift (see Manassas/Manassas Park)
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3
Latino voters swing toward Democrats in 2025 after Trump's 2024 historic gains
Mikie Sherrill flipped 18% of Latino Trump voters and won Latino men and women in her race for New Jersey governor.
www.cbsnews.com
November 8, 2025 at 1:14 AM
Virginia also shows signs of Latino shift (see Manassas/Manassas Park)
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3
Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!)
NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration
Read more below
3/3