Uncrewed
@uncrewed.bsky.social
Writer of Grand Old Primary/Uncrewed's State Legislative Election Watch. Lauren Underwood Stan. Some people may know me as Chris. (He/Him)
Merry Christmas! To celebrate, here's a map of an election that's very close to my heart, the 2020 #IL03 Democratic primary!
Blue Dog incumbent Dan Lipinski lost his bid for re-election by three points against progressive Marie Newman in this southwest suburban Chicago district.
Blue Dog incumbent Dan Lipinski lost his bid for re-election by three points against progressive Marie Newman in this southwest suburban Chicago district.
December 25, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Merry Christmas! To celebrate, here's a map of an election that's very close to my heart, the 2020 #IL03 Democratic primary!
Blue Dog incumbent Dan Lipinski lost his bid for re-election by three points against progressive Marie Newman in this southwest suburban Chicago district.
Blue Dog incumbent Dan Lipinski lost his bid for re-election by three points against progressive Marie Newman in this southwest suburban Chicago district.
Merry Christmas Bluesky peeps!
December 25, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Merry Christmas Bluesky peeps!
Here are my initial set of ratings for Texas's state legislative elections next year.
In the House, the Dems have to defend several Trump-won/majority-Hispanic seats, but they have some solid pickup opportunities in the suburbs. No Senate seat is competitive for now.
In the House, the Dems have to defend several Trump-won/majority-Hispanic seats, but they have some solid pickup opportunities in the suburbs. No Senate seat is competitive for now.
December 25, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Here are my initial set of ratings for Texas's state legislative elections next year.
In the House, the Dems have to defend several Trump-won/majority-Hispanic seats, but they have some solid pickup opportunities in the suburbs. No Senate seat is competitive for now.
In the House, the Dems have to defend several Trump-won/majority-Hispanic seats, but they have some solid pickup opportunities in the suburbs. No Senate seat is competitive for now.
Here are my first ratings for next year's state legislative elections in North Carolina.
The Democrats are looking to further escape superminority status in the legislature by trying to flip a few seats in the Senate and knock off some conservadems in primaries in the House.
The Democrats are looking to further escape superminority status in the legislature by trying to flip a few seats in the Senate and knock off some conservadems in primaries in the House.
December 24, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Here are my first ratings for next year's state legislative elections in North Carolina.
The Democrats are looking to further escape superminority status in the legislature by trying to flip a few seats in the Senate and knock off some conservadems in primaries in the House.
The Democrats are looking to further escape superminority status in the legislature by trying to flip a few seats in the Senate and knock off some conservadems in primaries in the House.
COMING TOMORROW: The launch of the SLEW ratings for North Carolina & Texas's 2026 state legislative elections!
Can the Democrats gain ground in two states with gerrymandered maps going against them?
Can the Democrats gain ground in two states with gerrymandered maps going against them?
December 24, 2025 at 3:33 AM
COMING TOMORROW: The launch of the SLEW ratings for North Carolina & Texas's 2026 state legislative elections!
Can the Democrats gain ground in two states with gerrymandered maps going against them?
Can the Democrats gain ground in two states with gerrymandered maps going against them?
Final results in the South Carolina #HD88 (Trump+35) special election:
John Lastinger (R)- 62.3%
Chuck Hightower (D)- 37.7%
10 point Democratic overperformance from 2024 in the suburbs of Columbia!
John Lastinger (R)- 62.3%
Chuck Hightower (D)- 37.7%
10 point Democratic overperformance from 2024 in the suburbs of Columbia!
December 24, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Final results in the South Carolina #HD88 (Trump+35) special election:
John Lastinger (R)- 62.3%
Chuck Hightower (D)- 37.7%
10 point Democratic overperformance from 2024 in the suburbs of Columbia!
John Lastinger (R)- 62.3%
Chuck Hightower (D)- 37.7%
10 point Democratic overperformance from 2024 in the suburbs of Columbia!
Dems easily overperforming in South Carolina's #HD88 (Trump+35) so far with over half of the vote in:
John Lastinger (R)- 59.6%
Chuck Hightower (D)- 40.4%
John Lastinger (R)- 59.6%
Chuck Hightower (D)- 40.4%
December 24, 2025 at 1:28 AM
Dems easily overperforming in South Carolina's #HD88 (Trump+35) so far with over half of the vote in:
John Lastinger (R)- 59.6%
Chuck Hightower (D)- 40.4%
John Lastinger (R)- 59.6%
Chuck Hightower (D)- 40.4%
It's special election night in South Carolina! We've got a special State House election lined up in #HD88, a Trump+35 seat in suburban Columbia.
Should be an easy Republican hold, but given how this seat became open (look up RJ May), we might see a Dem overperformance.
Should be an easy Republican hold, but given how this seat became open (look up RJ May), we might see a Dem overperformance.
December 23, 2025 at 7:39 PM
It's special election night in South Carolina! We've got a special State House election lined up in #HD88, a Trump+35 seat in suburban Columbia.
Should be an easy Republican hold, but given how this seat became open (look up RJ May), we might see a Dem overperformance.
Should be an easy Republican hold, but given how this seat became open (look up RJ May), we might see a Dem overperformance.
Florida's #SD03 was a Democratic bastion on the panhandle for decades before former NFL defensive tackle Corey Simon flipped it to the Republicans in 2022.
He was able to win re-election last year by 11 points, outrunning Trump's four point win here.
He was able to win re-election last year by 11 points, outrunning Trump's four point win here.
December 22, 2025 at 7:39 PM
Florida's #SD03 was a Democratic bastion on the panhandle for decades before former NFL defensive tackle Corey Simon flipped it to the Republicans in 2022.
He was able to win re-election last year by 11 points, outrunning Trump's four point win here.
He was able to win re-election last year by 11 points, outrunning Trump's four point win here.
So far today, I've seen three different "WAR" models each showing different outcomes on whether Sean Casten is an overperformer or underperformer.
Precisely the reason why you can't really do WAR in politics, especially when you're hiding the formula to do it because it makes you money Split Ticket
Precisely the reason why you can't really do WAR in politics, especially when you're hiding the formula to do it because it makes you money Split Ticket
December 22, 2025 at 1:19 AM
So far today, I've seen three different "WAR" models each showing different outcomes on whether Sean Casten is an overperformer or underperformer.
Precisely the reason why you can't really do WAR in politics, especially when you're hiding the formula to do it because it makes you money Split Ticket
Precisely the reason why you can't really do WAR in politics, especially when you're hiding the formula to do it because it makes you money Split Ticket
Me normally: 😐
Me when Caleb Williams: 😀
Me when Caleb Williams: 😀
December 21, 2025 at 4:33 AM
Me normally: 😐
Me when Caleb Williams: 😀
Me when Caleb Williams: 😀
This is why I'm really starting to hate the data bros.
Matty Y: "Dems should focus less on climate change/renewable energy, it's a losing issue."
Sean Casten (an actual Congressman): "I won a purple district multiple times by focusing on those issues"
Lakshya: "YEAH BUT YOU DIDN'T OVERPERFORM"
Matty Y: "Dems should focus less on climate change/renewable energy, it's a losing issue."
Sean Casten (an actual Congressman): "I won a purple district multiple times by focusing on those issues"
Lakshya: "YEAH BUT YOU DIDN'T OVERPERFORM"
December 20, 2025 at 9:14 PM
This is why I'm really starting to hate the data bros.
Matty Y: "Dems should focus less on climate change/renewable energy, it's a losing issue."
Sean Casten (an actual Congressman): "I won a purple district multiple times by focusing on those issues"
Lakshya: "YEAH BUT YOU DIDN'T OVERPERFORM"
Matty Y: "Dems should focus less on climate change/renewable energy, it's a losing issue."
Sean Casten (an actual Congressman): "I won a purple district multiple times by focusing on those issues"
Lakshya: "YEAH BUT YOU DIDN'T OVERPERFORM"
Earlier this year, the most prominent elected Illinois Republican lost re-election.
Richard Irvin, the Mayor of Aurora, lost his bid for re-election in Illinois's 2nd biggest city. He lost to City Councilman John Laesch, who won by seven points.
Richard Irvin, the Mayor of Aurora, lost his bid for re-election in Illinois's 2nd biggest city. He lost to City Councilman John Laesch, who won by seven points.
December 20, 2025 at 7:36 PM
Earlier this year, the most prominent elected Illinois Republican lost re-election.
Richard Irvin, the Mayor of Aurora, lost his bid for re-election in Illinois's 2nd biggest city. He lost to City Councilman John Laesch, who won by seven points.
Richard Irvin, the Mayor of Aurora, lost his bid for re-election in Illinois's 2nd biggest city. He lost to City Councilman John Laesch, who won by seven points.
I do find it very funny that every time you see someone on the other site dunking on lefties and proclaiming their brand of politics to be the thing to lead the Democrats out of the wilderness, they're almost always connected to some sort of think tank.
Unlike me, my bad opinions are unbiased!
Unlike me, my bad opinions are unbiased!
December 20, 2025 at 3:31 AM
I do find it very funny that every time you see someone on the other site dunking on lefties and proclaiming their brand of politics to be the thing to lead the Democrats out of the wilderness, they're almost always connected to some sort of think tank.
Unlike me, my bad opinions are unbiased!
Unlike me, my bad opinions are unbiased!
Democratic state legislative recruiting continuing to go extremely well this year. A little over a week after getting a candidate in every Texas legislative district, they get a candidate in all but 2 North Carolina state legislative districts.
December 19, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Democratic state legislative recruiting continuing to go extremely well this year. A little over a week after getting a candidate in every Texas legislative district, they get a candidate in all but 2 North Carolina state legislative districts.
The Washington Republicans dumped a lot of money into trying to flip #SD26 last month, but they ended up losing this Harris+9 district by five points.
State Representative Michelle Caldier (a proven overperformer) was unable to unseat appointed incumbent Deb Krishnadasan.
State Representative Michelle Caldier (a proven overperformer) was unable to unseat appointed incumbent Deb Krishnadasan.
December 19, 2025 at 7:44 PM
The Washington Republicans dumped a lot of money into trying to flip #SD26 last month, but they ended up losing this Harris+9 district by five points.
State Representative Michelle Caldier (a proven overperformer) was unable to unseat appointed incumbent Deb Krishnadasan.
State Representative Michelle Caldier (a proven overperformer) was unable to unseat appointed incumbent Deb Krishnadasan.
Look at my Election Twitter dawg, we ain't ever going back to people not saying dumb stuff
December 18, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Look at my Election Twitter dawg, we ain't ever going back to people not saying dumb stuff
As the North Carolina Democrats look to break the Republican supermajority in the State Senate next year, #SD11 might be the deciding seat.
This Trump+4 seat saw Republican Senator Lisa Stone Barnes win by three points in 2024 and she faces a strong opponent next year.
This Trump+4 seat saw Republican Senator Lisa Stone Barnes win by three points in 2024 and she faces a strong opponent next year.
December 18, 2025 at 7:54 PM
As the North Carolina Democrats look to break the Republican supermajority in the State Senate next year, #SD11 might be the deciding seat.
This Trump+4 seat saw Republican Senator Lisa Stone Barnes win by three points in 2024 and she faces a strong opponent next year.
This Trump+4 seat saw Republican Senator Lisa Stone Barnes win by three points in 2024 and she faces a strong opponent next year.
Indiana #SD01 Senator Dan Dernulc was one of 21 Republicans vote against redistricting last week, potentially earning him a primary challenge.
That's welcome news to the Democrats, as he only won by 5 points in 2022. A Dernulc primary loss could open the door to a Dem flip.
That's welcome news to the Democrats, as he only won by 5 points in 2022. A Dernulc primary loss could open the door to a Dem flip.
December 17, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Indiana #SD01 Senator Dan Dernulc was one of 21 Republicans vote against redistricting last week, potentially earning him a primary challenge.
That's welcome news to the Democrats, as he only won by 5 points in 2022. A Dernulc primary loss could open the door to a Dem flip.
That's welcome news to the Democrats, as he only won by 5 points in 2022. A Dernulc primary loss could open the door to a Dem flip.
Should be most of the vote in now for Kentucky's #SD35 (Harris+5) special election:
Gary Clemons (D)- 72.6%
Calvin Leach (R)- 25.1%
Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 2.3%
It's an over 40 point overperformance from 2024 for the Democrats!
Gary Clemons (D)- 72.6%
Calvin Leach (R)- 25.1%
Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 2.3%
It's an over 40 point overperformance from 2024 for the Democrats!
December 17, 2025 at 12:35 AM
Should be most of the vote in now for Kentucky's #SD35 (Harris+5) special election:
Gary Clemons (D)- 72.6%
Calvin Leach (R)- 25.1%
Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 2.3%
It's an over 40 point overperformance from 2024 for the Democrats!
Gary Clemons (D)- 72.6%
Calvin Leach (R)- 25.1%
Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 2.3%
It's an over 40 point overperformance from 2024 for the Democrats!
Early in-person results just dropped in the Kentucky #SD37 (Harris+5) special election:
Gary Clemons (D)- 77.2%
Calvin Leach (R)- 20.9%
Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 1.9%
E-day vote will drop this margin down a lot, but Dems well on their way to winning here
Gary Clemons (D)- 77.2%
Calvin Leach (R)- 20.9%
Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 1.9%
E-day vote will drop this margin down a lot, but Dems well on their way to winning here
December 16, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Early in-person results just dropped in the Kentucky #SD37 (Harris+5) special election:
Gary Clemons (D)- 77.2%
Calvin Leach (R)- 20.9%
Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 1.9%
E-day vote will drop this margin down a lot, but Dems well on their way to winning here
Gary Clemons (D)- 77.2%
Calvin Leach (R)- 20.9%
Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 1.9%
E-day vote will drop this margin down a lot, but Dems well on their way to winning here
We have a special election tonight in Kentucky's #SD37, a Harris+5 seat covering southern Louisville.
It also backed Beshear by over 30 points in 2023. Given that the Republican nominee tonight has a lot of baggage, the result will probably be closer to the Beshear margin.
It also backed Beshear by over 30 points in 2023. Given that the Republican nominee tonight has a lot of baggage, the result will probably be closer to the Beshear margin.
December 16, 2025 at 8:50 PM
We have a special election tonight in Kentucky's #SD37, a Harris+5 seat covering southern Louisville.
It also backed Beshear by over 30 points in 2023. Given that the Republican nominee tonight has a lot of baggage, the result will probably be closer to the Beshear margin.
It also backed Beshear by over 30 points in 2023. Given that the Republican nominee tonight has a lot of baggage, the result will probably be closer to the Beshear margin.
Despite backing Trump by 15 points last year, the Texas Democrats still control #HD74, which stretches along the border from El Paso to Del Rio.
Moderate Democrat Eddie Morales won re-election by 3 points at the time Trump won here, can he do it again next year?
Moderate Democrat Eddie Morales won re-election by 3 points at the time Trump won here, can he do it again next year?
December 15, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Despite backing Trump by 15 points last year, the Texas Democrats still control #HD74, which stretches along the border from El Paso to Del Rio.
Moderate Democrat Eddie Morales won re-election by 3 points at the time Trump won here, can he do it again next year?
Moderate Democrat Eddie Morales won re-election by 3 points at the time Trump won here, can he do it again next year?
Bald men in Pennsylvania who want to get elected to Congress have two paths
bsky.app/profile/poli...
bsky.app/profile/poli...
December 15, 2025 at 1:25 AM
Bald men in Pennsylvania who want to get elected to Congress have two paths
bsky.app/profile/poli...
bsky.app/profile/poli...
The new #TX09 is really going to be a test of candidate quality vs partisan lean.
The Republicans are probably going to nominate far-right State Rep Briscoe Cain, while the Democrats are running former NASA Astronaut Terry Virts. However, it is a Trump+20 district.
The Republicans are probably going to nominate far-right State Rep Briscoe Cain, while the Democrats are running former NASA Astronaut Terry Virts. However, it is a Trump+20 district.
December 14, 2025 at 10:10 PM
The new #TX09 is really going to be a test of candidate quality vs partisan lean.
The Republicans are probably going to nominate far-right State Rep Briscoe Cain, while the Democrats are running former NASA Astronaut Terry Virts. However, it is a Trump+20 district.
The Republicans are probably going to nominate far-right State Rep Briscoe Cain, while the Democrats are running former NASA Astronaut Terry Virts. However, it is a Trump+20 district.