Uncrewed
@uncrewed.bsky.social
Writer of Grand Old Primary/Uncrewed's State Legislative Election Watch. Lauren Underwood Stan. Some people may know me as Chris. (He/Him)
Here are my ratings for this year's state legislative elections in West Virginia.
The Democrats have a combined 11 seats across both chambers and it's really up in the air whether that number increases or decreases. However, they've got some amazing candidate recruitment.
The Democrats have a combined 11 seats across both chambers and it's really up in the air whether that number increases or decreases. However, they've got some amazing candidate recruitment.
February 10, 2026 at 2:02 AM
Here are my ratings for this year's state legislative elections in West Virginia.
The Democrats have a combined 11 seats across both chambers and it's really up in the air whether that number increases or decreases. However, they've got some amazing candidate recruitment.
The Democrats have a combined 11 seats across both chambers and it's really up in the air whether that number increases or decreases. However, they've got some amazing candidate recruitment.
Here are my initial set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Indiana.
Overall, the Democrats are currently favored to flip two seats that they barely lost in 2024 and an open Harris-won Senate seat in Indianapolis.
Overall, the Democrats are currently favored to flip two seats that they barely lost in 2024 and an open Harris-won Senate seat in Indianapolis.
February 9, 2026 at 11:02 PM
Here are my initial set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Indiana.
Overall, the Democrats are currently favored to flip two seats that they barely lost in 2024 and an open Harris-won Senate seat in Indianapolis.
Overall, the Democrats are currently favored to flip two seats that they barely lost in 2024 and an open Harris-won Senate seat in Indianapolis.
COMING TONIGHT: The first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Indiana & West Virginia!
Two states that backed Trump by big margins in 2024, but both had impressive candidate recruitment from the Democrats. Will that translate to gains for the Democrats?
Two states that backed Trump by big margins in 2024, but both had impressive candidate recruitment from the Democrats. Will that translate to gains for the Democrats?
February 9, 2026 at 7:36 PM
COMING TONIGHT: The first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Indiana & West Virginia!
Two states that backed Trump by big margins in 2024, but both had impressive candidate recruitment from the Democrats. Will that translate to gains for the Democrats?
Two states that backed Trump by big margins in 2024, but both had impressive candidate recruitment from the Democrats. Will that translate to gains for the Democrats?
Democratic teacher running in #MN01 against a Republican incumbent in what’s shaping up to be a Democratic favored midterm?
bsky.app/profile/jake...
bsky.app/profile/jake...
February 9, 2026 at 5:49 PM
Democratic teacher running in #MN01 against a Republican incumbent in what’s shaping up to be a Democratic favored midterm?
bsky.app/profile/jake...
bsky.app/profile/jake...
I've seen Illinois Republicans put up more of a fight than Drake Maye has tonight
February 9, 2026 at 3:01 AM
I've seen Illinois Republicans put up more of a fight than Drake Maye has tonight
I can't believe it, but I've found another pro wrestler running for a state legislative seat this year. This time it's Kate-Lynn Holley, who's running as a Democrat in the Trump+36 #SD06 in Indiana.
Holley, who wrestled as Moxie Mollie, even wrestled on WWE television in 2018!
Holley, who wrestled as Moxie Mollie, even wrestled on WWE television in 2018!
February 8, 2026 at 7:38 PM
I can't believe it, but I've found another pro wrestler running for a state legislative seat this year. This time it's Kate-Lynn Holley, who's running as a Democrat in the Trump+36 #SD06 in Indiana.
Holley, who wrestled as Moxie Mollie, even wrestled on WWE television in 2018!
Holley, who wrestled as Moxie Mollie, even wrestled on WWE television in 2018!
Final results in the Louisiana #HD60 (Trump+13) special election:
Chasity Martinez (D)- 62%
Brad Daigle (R)- 38%
Martinez holds this Trump+13 seat for the Democrats and puts in a nearly 40 point overperformance from 2024 in the process
Chasity Martinez (D)- 62%
Brad Daigle (R)- 38%
Martinez holds this Trump+13 seat for the Democrats and puts in a nearly 40 point overperformance from 2024 in the process
February 8, 2026 at 3:13 AM
Final results in the Louisiana #HD60 (Trump+13) special election:
Chasity Martinez (D)- 62%
Brad Daigle (R)- 38%
Martinez holds this Trump+13 seat for the Democrats and puts in a nearly 40 point overperformance from 2024 in the process
Chasity Martinez (D)- 62%
Brad Daigle (R)- 38%
Martinez holds this Trump+13 seat for the Democrats and puts in a nearly 40 point overperformance from 2024 in the process
With nearly half of the vote reporting in the Louisiana #HD60 (Trump+13) special election:
Chasity Martinez (D)- 61%
Brad Daigle (R)- 39%
Martinez is currently outperforming Harris's 2024 margins by around 30 points throughout the district.
Chasity Martinez (D)- 61%
Brad Daigle (R)- 39%
Martinez is currently outperforming Harris's 2024 margins by around 30 points throughout the district.
February 8, 2026 at 2:41 AM
With nearly half of the vote reporting in the Louisiana #HD60 (Trump+13) special election:
Chasity Martinez (D)- 61%
Brad Daigle (R)- 39%
Martinez is currently outperforming Harris's 2024 margins by around 30 points throughout the district.
Chasity Martinez (D)- 61%
Brad Daigle (R)- 39%
Martinez is currently outperforming Harris's 2024 margins by around 30 points throughout the district.
In those three precincts, the Democrat (Chasity Martinez) is outrunning Harris's margins by 41, 41, and 10 points respectively.
That 10 point overperformance is in a majority-Black precinct that already backed Harris by 80.
bsky.app/profile/purr...
That 10 point overperformance is in a majority-Black precinct that already backed Harris by 80.
bsky.app/profile/purr...
We have election day votes!
February 8, 2026 at 2:33 AM
In those three precincts, the Democrat (Chasity Martinez) is outrunning Harris's margins by 41, 41, and 10 points respectively.
That 10 point overperformance is in a majority-Black precinct that already backed Harris by 80.
bsky.app/profile/purr...
That 10 point overperformance is in a majority-Black precinct that already backed Harris by 80.
bsky.app/profile/purr...
First results out of the Louisiana #HD60 (Trump+13) special election:
Chasity Martinez (D)- 55.6%
Brad Daigle (R)- 44.4%
Just early vote, but Harris lost the early vote here by around 15-20 points in 2024, so good start for the Democrats in their attempt to retain this seat.
Chasity Martinez (D)- 55.6%
Brad Daigle (R)- 44.4%
Just early vote, but Harris lost the early vote here by around 15-20 points in 2024, so good start for the Democrats in their attempt to retain this seat.
February 8, 2026 at 2:06 AM
First results out of the Louisiana #HD60 (Trump+13) special election:
Chasity Martinez (D)- 55.6%
Brad Daigle (R)- 44.4%
Just early vote, but Harris lost the early vote here by around 15-20 points in 2024, so good start for the Democrats in their attempt to retain this seat.
Chasity Martinez (D)- 55.6%
Brad Daigle (R)- 44.4%
Just early vote, but Harris lost the early vote here by around 15-20 points in 2024, so good start for the Democrats in their attempt to retain this seat.
The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now!
It's a special Saturday edition because Louisiana is holding multiple special state legislative elections tonight! Check it out below!
uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...
It's a special Saturday edition because Louisiana is holding multiple special state legislative elections tonight! Check it out below!
uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...
State Legislative Election Watch- February 7th, 2026
Covering all of tonight's special elections in Louisiana!
uncrewed.substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 7:07 PM
The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now!
It's a special Saturday edition because Louisiana is holding multiple special state legislative elections tonight! Check it out below!
uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...
It's a special Saturday edition because Louisiana is holding multiple special state legislative elections tonight! Check it out below!
uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...
Indiana candidate filing deadline was today:
Dems got candidates in 91/100 State House districts and 25/25 State Senate districts!
The Republicans? 79/100 State House districts and nearly all of their incumbents in the Senate are facing primary challenges.
Hoosier Republicans in disarray
Dems got candidates in 91/100 State House districts and 25/25 State Senate districts!
The Republicans? 79/100 State House districts and nearly all of their incumbents in the Senate are facing primary challenges.
Hoosier Republicans in disarray
February 7, 2026 at 1:37 AM
Indiana candidate filing deadline was today:
Dems got candidates in 91/100 State House districts and 25/25 State Senate districts!
The Republicans? 79/100 State House districts and nearly all of their incumbents in the Senate are facing primary challenges.
Hoosier Republicans in disarray
Dems got candidates in 91/100 State House districts and 25/25 State Senate districts!
The Republicans? 79/100 State House districts and nearly all of their incumbents in the Senate are facing primary challenges.
Hoosier Republicans in disarray
Marie Newman going all in to elect Joey Ruzevich over Sean Casten in #IL06 because she does not like Casten is hilarious.
Like she does NOT like Casten. In a downballot State House race between two similar-ish Democrats, she endorsed the primary opponent to Casten's endorsed candidate.
Like she does NOT like Casten. In a downballot State House race between two similar-ish Democrats, she endorsed the primary opponent to Casten's endorsed candidate.
February 7, 2026 at 12:10 AM
Marie Newman going all in to elect Joey Ruzevich over Sean Casten in #IL06 because she does not like Casten is hilarious.
Like she does NOT like Casten. In a downballot State House race between two similar-ish Democrats, she endorsed the primary opponent to Casten's endorsed candidate.
Like she does NOT like Casten. In a downballot State House race between two similar-ish Democrats, she endorsed the primary opponent to Casten's endorsed candidate.
The only State House seat the Florida Dems flipped in 2024 was #HD45 in the Orlando area. That's where former Disney executive Leonard Spencer unseated indicted Republican incumbent Carolina Amesty.
Yes, the former Disney executive flipped the district containing Disney World.
Yes, the former Disney executive flipped the district containing Disney World.
February 6, 2026 at 7:44 PM
The only State House seat the Florida Dems flipped in 2024 was #HD45 in the Orlando area. That's where former Disney executive Leonard Spencer unseated indicted Republican incumbent Carolina Amesty.
Yes, the former Disney executive flipped the district containing Disney World.
Yes, the former Disney executive flipped the district containing Disney World.
Reposted by Uncrewed
While the political world waits for a winner Progressive
@analiliafornj.bsky.social leads in the Contest to replace Gov Mikie Sherrill by 0.8% over former Congressman Tom Malinowski — with a Divided field of former LG Tahesha Way, Essex Commissioner Brendan Gill, & others taking the rest
@analiliafornj.bsky.social leads in the Contest to replace Gov Mikie Sherrill by 0.8% over former Congressman Tom Malinowski — with a Divided field of former LG Tahesha Way, Essex Commissioner Brendan Gill, & others taking the rest
February 6, 2026 at 4:06 AM
While the political world waits for a winner Progressive
@analiliafornj.bsky.social leads in the Contest to replace Gov Mikie Sherrill by 0.8% over former Congressman Tom Malinowski — with a Divided field of former LG Tahesha Way, Essex Commissioner Brendan Gill, & others taking the rest
@analiliafornj.bsky.social leads in the Contest to replace Gov Mikie Sherrill by 0.8% over former Congressman Tom Malinowski — with a Divided field of former LG Tahesha Way, Essex Commissioner Brendan Gill, & others taking the rest
Mejia now only trails Malinowski by 400 VOTES in #NJ11.
With how well Mejia has done in the election day vote, I think she stands a very good chance at taking the lead
With how well Mejia has done in the election day vote, I think she stands a very good chance at taking the lead
February 6, 2026 at 3:06 AM
Mejia now only trails Malinowski by 400 VOTES in #NJ11.
With how well Mejia has done in the election day vote, I think she stands a very good chance at taking the lead
With how well Mejia has done in the election day vote, I think she stands a very good chance at taking the lead
Kind of a crazy early/e-day vote split in #NJ11 so far:
Essex Early: Malinowski- 33%, Mejia- 23.3%
Essex E-Day: Mejia- 37.8%, Malinowski- 22.2%
Morris Early: Malinowski- 43.5%, Mejia- 17%
Morris E-Day: Mejia- 37.9%, Malinowski- 21.4%
Malinowski has definitely not won yet
Essex Early: Malinowski- 33%, Mejia- 23.3%
Essex E-Day: Mejia- 37.8%, Malinowski- 22.2%
Morris Early: Malinowski- 43.5%, Mejia- 17%
Morris E-Day: Mejia- 37.9%, Malinowski- 21.4%
Malinowski has definitely not won yet
February 6, 2026 at 2:26 AM
Kind of a crazy early/e-day vote split in #NJ11 so far:
Essex Early: Malinowski- 33%, Mejia- 23.3%
Essex E-Day: Mejia- 37.8%, Malinowski- 22.2%
Morris Early: Malinowski- 43.5%, Mejia- 17%
Morris E-Day: Mejia- 37.9%, Malinowski- 21.4%
Malinowski has definitely not won yet
Essex Early: Malinowski- 33%, Mejia- 23.3%
Essex E-Day: Mejia- 37.8%, Malinowski- 22.2%
Morris Early: Malinowski- 43.5%, Mejia- 17%
Morris E-Day: Mejia- 37.9%, Malinowski- 21.4%
Malinowski has definitely not won yet
Also, Tahesha Way had millions of dollars in support of her campaign (and had the help of AIPAC spending millions to knock down Tom Malinowski) and she's currently sitting in fourth with 14%.
bsky.app/profile/uncr...
bsky.app/profile/uncr...
This is before the Morris County drop (which will net Malinowski a large amount of votes), so Malinowski is probably the favorite to win right now in #NJ11.
Of course, election day votes could still swing things!
Of course, election day votes could still swing things!
February 6, 2026 at 1:18 AM
Also, Tahesha Way had millions of dollars in support of her campaign (and had the help of AIPAC spending millions to knock down Tom Malinowski) and she's currently sitting in fourth with 14%.
bsky.app/profile/uncr...
bsky.app/profile/uncr...
This is before the Morris County drop (which will net Malinowski a large amount of votes), so Malinowski is probably the favorite to win right now in #NJ11.
Of course, election day votes could still swing things!
Of course, election day votes could still swing things!
February 6, 2026 at 1:16 AM
This is before the Morris County drop (which will net Malinowski a large amount of votes), so Malinowski is probably the favorite to win right now in #NJ11.
Of course, election day votes could still swing things!
Of course, election day votes could still swing things!
Anti-woke messaging is a net negative among Democrats
February 5, 2026 at 11:11 PM
Anti-woke messaging is a net negative among Democrats
California's #AD27 was a rare district in California that voted for Trump and re-elected a Democratic Assemblywoman in 2024.
Said Assemblywoman Esmerelda Soria is running for State Senate this year, leaving this seat open. It's competitive, but it also backed Prop 50 by 13.
Said Assemblywoman Esmerelda Soria is running for State Senate this year, leaving this seat open. It's competitive, but it also backed Prop 50 by 13.
February 5, 2026 at 8:20 PM
California's #AD27 was a rare district in California that voted for Trump and re-elected a Democratic Assemblywoman in 2024.
Said Assemblywoman Esmerelda Soria is running for State Senate this year, leaving this seat open. It's competitive, but it also backed Prop 50 by 13.
Said Assemblywoman Esmerelda Soria is running for State Senate this year, leaving this seat open. It's competitive, but it also backed Prop 50 by 13.
Contrary to what my mentions looked like after posting that Klobuchar landslide poll, Klobuchar's still really popular among Democrats
minnesotareformer.com/briefs/klobu...
minnesotareformer.com/briefs/klobu...
Klobuchar overwhelmingly wins DFL caucus straw poll, but many submit protest votes • Minnesota Reformer
Sen. Amy Klobuchar overwhelmingly won Tuesday’s Democratic precinct caucus straw poll for Minnesota governor, but a significant number voted against her — signaling that the senior senator could have ...
minnesotareformer.com
February 4, 2026 at 11:18 PM
Contrary to what my mentions looked like after posting that Klobuchar landslide poll, Klobuchar's still really popular among Democrats
minnesotareformer.com/briefs/klobu...
minnesotareformer.com/briefs/klobu...
Reposted by Uncrewed
🚨🚨🚨
So......this is interesting
A GOP to Dem party change in the NH House! And this is a district that Trump actually WON in 2020 by 8!!
@trumpstaxes.com @uncrewed.bsky.social @proptermalone.bsky.social @gilmored85.bsky.social @golikehellmachine.com @ericmgarcia.bsky.social
So......this is interesting
A GOP to Dem party change in the NH House! And this is a district that Trump actually WON in 2020 by 8!!
@trumpstaxes.com @uncrewed.bsky.social @proptermalone.bsky.social @gilmored85.bsky.social @golikehellmachine.com @ericmgarcia.bsky.social
NH Rep. David Nagel is leaving the GOP. A big reason? He sees how the GOP's recklessness puts his constituents at risk. One of our top priorities this year is breaking NH's harmful GOP trifecta.
Welcome to the party, Rep. Nagel!
Welcome to the party, Rep. Nagel!
Rep. David Nagel switches party affiliation to Democrat
GILMANTON — State Rep. David Nagel, who represents Belknap County’s District 6, publicly shared Wednesday he had switched his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat.
www.laconiadailysun.com
February 4, 2026 at 9:22 PM
🚨🚨🚨
So......this is interesting
A GOP to Dem party change in the NH House! And this is a district that Trump actually WON in 2020 by 8!!
@trumpstaxes.com @uncrewed.bsky.social @proptermalone.bsky.social @gilmored85.bsky.social @golikehellmachine.com @ericmgarcia.bsky.social
So......this is interesting
A GOP to Dem party change in the NH House! And this is a district that Trump actually WON in 2020 by 8!!
@trumpstaxes.com @uncrewed.bsky.social @proptermalone.bsky.social @gilmored85.bsky.social @golikehellmachine.com @ericmgarcia.bsky.social