Raven Onthill
@ravenonthill.bsky.social
Just a dilettante amateur political science bird who lives in the US Pacific Northwest. If you want to know what I think, try my blogs at adviceunasked.blogspot.com and shinycroak.blogspot.com.
Pinned
Reposted by Raven Onthill
Everyone please join me in presenting tonight’s Bluesky Appreciation Award (BAA) to @sslee.bsky.social for this excellent live-posting! Thanks!
February 19, 2026 at 7:08 AM
Everyone please join me in presenting tonight’s Bluesky Appreciation Award (BAA) to @sslee.bsky.social for this excellent live-posting! Thanks!
Reposted by Raven Onthill
It is a vile scandal that 2 of the biggest AI companies in the world attack children by inciting them to self-harm, and by generating sexually exploitative imagery of kids for profit. I wanted to document this so that people in tech will stop saying they don't know: www.anildash.com/2026/02/18/t...
How did we end up threatening our kids’ lives with AI? - Anil Dash
A blog about making culture. Since 1999.
www.anildash.com
February 18, 2026 at 5:40 PM
It is a vile scandal that 2 of the biggest AI companies in the world attack children by inciting them to self-harm, and by generating sexually exploitative imagery of kids for profit. I wanted to document this so that people in tech will stop saying they don't know: www.anildash.com/2026/02/18/t...
Reposted by Raven Onthill
this is why the whole “oh, suffering creates great art” thing is bullshit
you know what’s conducive to art? a roof over your head and food on the table
you know what isn’t? stressing out over where the fuck the rent money is going to come from
you know what’s conducive to art? a roof over your head and food on the table
you know what isn’t? stressing out over where the fuck the rent money is going to come from
I regularly see people wondering how it's possible that there are so many musicians and writers and film makers and artists from a tiny nation like Iceland.
And the answer is really simple: State funding for art education and artists. I literally get a salary from the government to write books.
And the answer is really simple: State funding for art education and artists. I literally get a salary from the government to write books.
I’m constantly astounded at the sheer level of artistic production coming out of Iceland. Novels, movies, music. Amazing.
February 19, 2026 at 1:35 AM
this is why the whole “oh, suffering creates great art” thing is bullshit
you know what’s conducive to art? a roof over your head and food on the table
you know what isn’t? stressing out over where the fuck the rent money is going to come from
you know what’s conducive to art? a roof over your head and food on the table
you know what isn’t? stressing out over where the fuck the rent money is going to come from
Why an assault on Iran would be a really stupid idea. I figured that raises the odds that this Administration will actually do it.
🧵: Let's talk Iran. Once again, below, is my 2018 professional pub on why going to war w/Iran would be a galactically bad idea.
My February 2026 BLUF: Despite all sorts of changes since 2018, if CENTCOM & SOCOM stick an arm in there, they’re going to pull back a bloody stump. 1/
My February 2026 BLUF: Despite all sorts of changes since 2018, if CENTCOM & SOCOM stick an arm in there, they’re going to pull back a bloody stump. 1/
February 19, 2026 at 1:27 AM
Why an assault on Iran would be a really stupid idea. I figured that raises the odds that this Administration will actually do it.
Reposted by Raven Onthill
We had gotten used to authoritarian regimes acquiring nuclear weapons. Now, nuclear-weapon states are acquiring authoritarian regimes. 5/
February 18, 2026 at 9:41 PM
We had gotten used to authoritarian regimes acquiring nuclear weapons. Now, nuclear-weapon states are acquiring authoritarian regimes. 5/
Reposted by Raven Onthill
Lieu says there are *allegations* in the files of Trump raping children. x.com/TheMaineWonk...
x.com
February 18, 2026 at 7:59 PM
Lieu says there are *allegations* in the files of Trump raping children. x.com/TheMaineWonk...
Reposted by Raven Onthill
The more I think about the DC press slagging AOC for a lack of FP depth while Donald Trump is President, twice, is making me angry enough to explode. The fuck is wrong with the journalists that they're like this
February 18, 2026 at 12:51 PM
The more I think about the DC press slagging AOC for a lack of FP depth while Donald Trump is President, twice, is making me angry enough to explode. The fuck is wrong with the journalists that they're like this
That is what Hirohito's government thought, and also what Hitler's government thought.
The entire city of Minneapolis rose in a bitter cold winter to stand up to an occupying force. These are not soft people.
The entire city of Minneapolis rose in a bitter cold winter to stand up to an occupying force. These are not soft people.
Ehhh, China would destroy the US in a war now. We’d run out of ships in a month and missiles in 3. A soft, anti-intellectual, consumerist populace is not equipped to fight China.
February 18, 2026 at 8:13 PM
That is what Hirohito's government thought, and also what Hitler's government thought.
The entire city of Minneapolis rose in a bitter cold winter to stand up to an occupying force. These are not soft people.
The entire city of Minneapolis rose in a bitter cold winter to stand up to an occupying force. These are not soft people.
The high priest of the Ancient And Hermetic Order Of The Shrill speaks. Iä! Iä! Krugman fhtagn!
Something new: A short video responding to the Trump administration saying that economists whose studies aren’t what they want to hear should be “disciplined” www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzZd...
Now Trumpists are menacing economists
YouTube video by Paul Krugman
www.youtube.com
February 18, 2026 at 8:09 PM
The high priest of the Ancient And Hermetic Order Of The Shrill speaks. Iä! Iä! Krugman fhtagn!
Reposted by Raven Onthill
...WTF.
If you don't read outside your time, how do you find out what people were thinking then?
Unless you're *afraid* to find out...
...or think those people weren't, you know, *human.*
If you don't read outside your time, how do you find out what people were thinking then?
Unless you're *afraid* to find out...
...or think those people weren't, you know, *human.*
Meanwhile, on threads, which actually is like what people on twitter think bluesky is like, a "teacher, author, poet" speaks...
February 18, 2026 at 7:44 PM
...WTF.
If you don't read outside your time, how do you find out what people were thinking then?
Unless you're *afraid* to find out...
...or think those people weren't, you know, *human.*
If you don't read outside your time, how do you find out what people were thinking then?
Unless you're *afraid* to find out...
...or think those people weren't, you know, *human.*
Reposted by Raven Onthill
Couple days ago, my family and I played a tabletop crime game where you had to answer four questions at the end on a website to see if you correctly deduced the murderer and how they did it.
The website was down for some reason, not sure if it's permanent or temporary.
So we looked on the web.
1/
The website was down for some reason, not sure if it's permanent or temporary.
So we looked on the web.
1/
February 18, 2026 at 7:43 PM
Couple days ago, my family and I played a tabletop crime game where you had to answer four questions at the end on a website to see if you correctly deduced the murderer and how they did it.
The website was down for some reason, not sure if it's permanent or temporary.
So we looked on the web.
1/
The website was down for some reason, not sure if it's permanent or temporary.
So we looked on the web.
1/
Reposted by Raven Onthill
The AI answer was long and spoke with authority.
And got all four answers completely wrong.
1) Invented a sidekick completely and named them the culprint. Not a character in the game.
2) Named the wrong character, and missed her name.
3) Wrong motive
4) Completely incorrect answer.
3/
And got all four answers completely wrong.
1) Invented a sidekick completely and named them the culprint. Not a character in the game.
2) Named the wrong character, and missed her name.
3) Wrong motive
4) Completely incorrect answer.
3/
February 18, 2026 at 7:48 PM
The AI answer was long and spoke with authority.
And got all four answers completely wrong.
1) Invented a sidekick completely and named them the culprint. Not a character in the game.
2) Named the wrong character, and missed her name.
3) Wrong motive
4) Completely incorrect answer.
3/
And got all four answers completely wrong.
1) Invented a sidekick completely and named them the culprint. Not a character in the game.
2) Named the wrong character, and missed her name.
3) Wrong motive
4) Completely incorrect answer.
3/
Reposted by Raven Onthill
I tell my students that one of the main reasons not to over-rely on AI for research/writing is because--at some point in the future--you're going to have a face-to-face conversation with someone who matters, and if you don't actually know some things, that interaction will not go well for you.
February 16, 2026 at 2:50 PM
I tell my students that one of the main reasons not to over-rely on AI for research/writing is because--at some point in the future--you're going to have a face-to-face conversation with someone who matters, and if you don't actually know some things, that interaction will not go well for you.
Economic Lysenkoism.
"[…] comparable to Soviet science, […] dogma and laboratory practice kept in carefully separated pigeon-holes [which] had fluid walls, and the dogma had a nasty way of interpenetrating the practice, usually to the discomfort or even to the extinction of the practitioner."
"[…] comparable to Soviet science, […] dogma and laboratory practice kept in carefully separated pigeon-holes [which] had fluid walls, and the dogma had a nasty way of interpenetrating the practice, usually to the discomfort or even to the extinction of the practitioner."
Something new: A short video responding to the Trump administration saying that economists whose studies aren’t what they want to hear should be “disciplined” www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzZd...
Now Trumpists are menacing economists
YouTube video by Paul Krugman
www.youtube.com
February 18, 2026 at 7:04 PM
Economic Lysenkoism.
"[…] comparable to Soviet science, […] dogma and laboratory practice kept in carefully separated pigeon-holes [which] had fluid walls, and the dogma had a nasty way of interpenetrating the practice, usually to the discomfort or even to the extinction of the practitioner."
"[…] comparable to Soviet science, […] dogma and laboratory practice kept in carefully separated pigeon-holes [which] had fluid walls, and the dogma had a nasty way of interpenetrating the practice, usually to the discomfort or even to the extinction of the practitioner."
Snicker snicker snicker
Against my will, I am sitting within earshot of Morning Joe. I am never going to feel shame about the quality of my takes again.
February 18, 2026 at 1:12 PM
Snicker snicker snicker
Reposted by Raven Onthill
Big news from @lizzylawrence.bsky.social: FDA reverses course, agrees to review Moderna’s flu vaccine www.statnews.com/2026/02/18/f... via @statnews.com
FDA reverses course, agrees to review Moderna’s flu vaccine
The FDA reversed course and told Moderna it would review its application for a new flu vaccine, the company announced Wednesday.
www.statnews.com
February 18, 2026 at 12:55 PM
Big news from @lizzylawrence.bsky.social: FDA reverses course, agrees to review Moderna’s flu vaccine www.statnews.com/2026/02/18/f... via @statnews.com
Reposted by Raven Onthill
“In the Gulf, only 9% say Israel is the greatest threat…the most telling number in the survey in these highly autocratic countries is the whopping 42% who said don't know/decline to answer.. the mukhabarat (secret police) is, in fact, the greatest threat.”
abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io/mena-academy...
abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io/mena-academy...
The latest in Arab public opinion
This week we feature new Arab public opinion surveys, a new issue of Middle East Report, and some of the latest research from the MENA Academy. I was traveling all last week, so the Middle East Politi...
abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io
February 16, 2026 at 4:35 PM
“In the Gulf, only 9% say Israel is the greatest threat…the most telling number in the survey in these highly autocratic countries is the whopping 42% who said don't know/decline to answer.. the mukhabarat (secret police) is, in fact, the greatest threat.”
abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io/mena-academy...
abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io/mena-academy...
@driftglass.bsky.social says you were right.
if centrists admit resit libs were right, they should stop dismissing & disparaging us
my latest for @newrepublic.com
newrepublic.com/article/2060...
my latest for @newrepublic.com
newrepublic.com/article/2060...
What’s Behind the Centrists’ Resistance to the “Resistance Liberals”?
They’re acknowledging now that the people who called Trump a “fascist” were right. But somehow we’re still not to be trusted.
newrepublic.com
February 18, 2026 at 12:51 PM
@driftglass.bsky.social says you were right.
Reposted by Raven Onthill
The Epstein Files are so vast and detailed that they feel like the ruins of Pompeii--a snapshot of of Billionaire Town, preserved in volcanic ash--their food, their cruelties large and small, their graffiti with dumb dick jokes, the tools of various trades, art, family pets, so many brothels...
February 18, 2026 at 12:15 PM
The Epstein Files are so vast and detailed that they feel like the ruins of Pompeii--a snapshot of of Billionaire Town, preserved in volcanic ash--their food, their cruelties large and small, their graffiti with dumb dick jokes, the tools of various trades, art, family pets, so many brothels...
Reposted by Raven Onthill
if it's any consolation a lot of Chinese people are really into tarot and Western astrology.
White people online are really excited about Lunar New Year: defector.com/white-people...
White People Online Are Really Excited About Lunar New Year | Defector
I’m sure I’m telling on myself by revealing this, but Western astrological readings are a staple of my social feeds. (To tell on myself further: Scorpio sun, Gemini rising, Cancer moon.) I don’t…
defector.com
February 17, 2026 at 7:07 PM
if it's any consolation a lot of Chinese people are really into tarot and Western astrology.
@hcrichardson.bsky.social important. Why the Euro is not a plausible reserve currency.
Let’s see. Could it be the fact that the euro crisis never ended? Or that capital markets union hasn’t happened. Or that 🇩🇪 insists on running permanent current account surpluses? Or that there’s not remotely enough common eurozone debt? Or that 🇪🇺 private stock & bond markets are too small? Or th- 🤷♂️
EU finance ministers debate why euro is ‘punching below its weight’
February 18, 2026 at 6:41 AM
@hcrichardson.bsky.social important. Why the Euro is not a plausible reserve currency.
Reposted by Raven Onthill
Let me explain what pobiedobesie means for the unitiated. It translates from Russian as either victory mania or victory fervor. Putin has been promoting & leveraging it since he rose to power. Especially w/his creation of the Immortal Regiment & revision of the Great Patriotic War history. 1/
“Christian values”
Children in military uniforms performing weapon-style drills in front of a church altar in the Moscow region.
Children in military uniforms performing weapon-style drills in front of a church altar in the Moscow region.
February 18, 2026 at 4:44 AM
Let me explain what pobiedobesie means for the unitiated. It translates from Russian as either victory mania or victory fervor. Putin has been promoting & leveraging it since he rose to power. Especially w/his creation of the Immortal Regiment & revision of the Great Patriotic War history. 1/
@bluegal.bsky.social ahm an in-de-pen-dent
For months I've banged the drum that "not sure" has become the safe harbor answer for "Republicans who know Trump's probably wrong, but don't want to admit it."
Today's Economist/YouGov Poll: Is Donald Trump racist?
41% of Republicans have No Opinion.
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
Today's Economist/YouGov Poll: Is Donald Trump racist?
41% of Republicans have No Opinion.
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
February 18, 2026 at 4:32 AM
@bluegal.bsky.social ahm an in-de-pen-dent
Biomedicine.
is there a technology that "the left" is excited about?
www.transformernews.ai/p/the-left-i...
www.transformernews.ai/p/the-left-i...
The left is missing out on AI
As a movement, it has largely refused to engage seriously with AI, ceding debate about a threat and opportunity to the right
www.transformernews.ai
February 18, 2026 at 2:12 AM
Biomedicine.
Reposted by Raven Onthill
The Republicans are shamelessly trying to rewrite history about the Epstein files. The Biden DOJ convicted Ghislaine Maxwell, the FBI was working cases until Trump came into office. There was no scandal until Trump ran on releasing the files and then reneged.
February 18, 2026 at 1:49 AM
The Republicans are shamelessly trying to rewrite history about the Epstein files. The Biden DOJ convicted Ghislaine Maxwell, the FBI was working cases until Trump came into office. There was no scandal until Trump ran on releasing the files and then reneged.