Daniel McDowell
@danielmcdowell.bsky.social
Family man | Professor @Syracuse | Sr. Fellow @Atlantic Council | Fmr. China Fellow @TheWilsonCenter | Geoeconomics, Finance, & Cleveland sports | www.danielmcdowell.org
Pinned
I. Am. Tobias. Fünke.
February 10, 2026 at 4:50 PM
I. Am. Tobias. Fünke.
it's never been more appropriate!
February 10, 2026 at 4:49 PM
it's never been more appropriate!
Yes, yes, but you speak from experience, sir.
February 10, 2026 at 4:49 PM
Yes, yes, but you speak from experience, sir.
lol knew this was coming!!!
February 10, 2026 at 4:46 PM
lol knew this was coming!!!
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Marginal spending growth may be slowing, but the US remains the global consumer of last resort—overall retail sales were still up 4% year-over-year in 2025, and import volumes have gone from strength to strength despite the White House's attempts to wreak havoc.
February 10, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Marginal spending growth may be slowing, but the US remains the global consumer of last resort—overall retail sales were still up 4% year-over-year in 2025, and import volumes have gone from strength to strength despite the White House's attempts to wreak havoc.
This. I just need it to last like four months. Then, we can file for divorce.
February 10, 2026 at 4:04 PM
This. I just need it to last like four months. Then, we can file for divorce.
I know. The breakup is coming, and it will probably ruin all of the good vibes.
I wasn't happy when the trade happened, but I'm starting to become a little delusional. Can I just enjoy my delusion for a while? Please? 😆
I wasn't happy when the trade happened, but I'm starting to become a little delusional. Can I just enjoy my delusion for a while? Please? 😆
February 10, 2026 at 4:04 PM
I know. The breakup is coming, and it will probably ruin all of the good vibes.
I wasn't happy when the trade happened, but I'm starting to become a little delusional. Can I just enjoy my delusion for a while? Please? 😆
I wasn't happy when the trade happened, but I'm starting to become a little delusional. Can I just enjoy my delusion for a while? Please? 😆
It shocks me to say this, and I reserve my right to retract this statement at any point in the future and as soon as tomorrow but: it is fun having this guy on my team.
February 10, 2026 at 3:11 PM
It shocks me to say this, and I reserve my right to retract this statement at any point in the future and as soon as tomorrow but: it is fun having this guy on my team.
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
No, this is unacceptable. Get your problem set done -- Olympic medals can wait.
Uhhh. Yes. You can have the extension to (checks notes) COMPETE AT THE OLYMPICS www.nbclosangeles.com/olympics/202...
Figure skater asks professor for extension on assignment: 'I was competing in the Olympics'
Madeline Schizas missed the deadline for an assignment because she was competing at the 2026 Milan Cortina Olympics.
www.nbclosangeles.com
February 10, 2026 at 3:06 PM
No, this is unacceptable. Get your problem set done -- Olympic medals can wait.
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Some brutal charts in the new Rhodium Group note, updating their previous research on Germany and China Shock 2.0
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
February 10, 2026 at 12:37 PM
Some brutal charts in the new Rhodium Group note, updating their previous research on Germany and China Shock 2.0
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
As @michaelpettis.bsky.social says at least 1x per week, China cannot maintain a direct or indirect export surplus and also avoid acquiring some non-RMB asset. If not USTs, then something else, and if not USD denominated then -> ⬆️ deficits in other countries -> ⬆️ protectionist policy there.
More anti-dollar guidance & rhetoric from Chinese officials, this one instructing state-owned banks to curtail US Treasury purchases, citing risks of overdependence on market prone to sharp swings
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
February 9, 2026 at 11:49 PM
As @michaelpettis.bsky.social says at least 1x per week, China cannot maintain a direct or indirect export surplus and also avoid acquiring some non-RMB asset. If not USTs, then something else, and if not USD denominated then -> ⬆️ deficits in other countries -> ⬆️ protectionist policy there.
LOL
A+ post
A+ post
February 9, 2026 at 8:04 PM
LOL
A+ post
A+ post
Here's a link to the Bloomberg story on today's news: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China Urges Banks to Curb Exposure to US Treasuries
Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concerns over concentration risks and market volatility, according to people familiar with the...
www.bloomberg.com
February 9, 2026 at 7:09 PM
Here's a link to the Bloomberg story on today's news: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Ultimately, the impact on the narrative, on market sentiment more broadly, is probably as important as any changes in Chinese firm/bank behavior.
The bigger question is whether any of this signals an appetite for real policy reform in China, or if it's just a shot across the dollar's bow.
The bigger question is whether any of this signals an appetite for real policy reform in China, or if it's just a shot across the dollar's bow.
February 9, 2026 at 7:03 PM
Ultimately, the impact on the narrative, on market sentiment more broadly, is probably as important as any changes in Chinese firm/bank behavior.
The bigger question is whether any of this signals an appetite for real policy reform in China, or if it's just a shot across the dollar's bow.
The bigger question is whether any of this signals an appetite for real policy reform in China, or if it's just a shot across the dollar's bow.
I'm sure there are others I'm missing. The point is, the guidance and rhetoric out of Beijing on the dollar has become, in my estimation, more frequent and more direct than it has been at any other point in the past.
The gloves aren't off, but the filter is.
The gloves aren't off, but the filter is.
February 9, 2026 at 7:01 PM
I'm sure there are others I'm missing. The point is, the guidance and rhetoric out of Beijing on the dollar has become, in my estimation, more frequent and more direct than it has been at any other point in the past.
The gloves aren't off, but the filter is.
The gloves aren't off, but the filter is.
PBOC guidance to state-owned enterprises to conduct more cross-border business in renminbi, from last April.
February 9, 2026 at 6:58 PM
PBOC guidance to state-owned enterprises to conduct more cross-border business in renminbi, from last April.
PBOC Chair Pan's speech from last summer.
February 9, 2026 at 6:57 PM
PBOC Chair Pan's speech from last summer.
If you're keeping score, other recent examples:
Xi Jinping's "reserve currency" remarks at the end of last month.
Xi Jinping's "reserve currency" remarks at the end of last month.
February 9, 2026 at 6:57 PM
If you're keeping score, other recent examples:
Xi Jinping's "reserve currency" remarks at the end of last month.
Xi Jinping's "reserve currency" remarks at the end of last month.
More anti-dollar guidance & rhetoric from Chinese officials, this one instructing state-owned banks to curtail US Treasury purchases, citing risks of overdependence on market prone to sharp swings
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
February 9, 2026 at 6:55 PM
More anti-dollar guidance & rhetoric from Chinese officials, this one instructing state-owned banks to curtail US Treasury purchases, citing risks of overdependence on market prone to sharp swings
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative
Bravo!
(can you send me an ungated version?)
(can you send me an ungated version?)
February 9, 2026 at 6:40 PM
Bravo!
(can you send me an ungated version?)
(can you send me an ungated version?)
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Speaking of cheap books that can fit in your pocket ....
(If you're not interested in Russian politics, there are more than 750 other Very Short Introductions)
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/b...
(If you're not interested in Russian politics, there are more than 750 other Very Short Introductions)
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/b...
February 7, 2026 at 9:11 PM
Speaking of cheap books that can fit in your pocket ....
(If you're not interested in Russian politics, there are more than 750 other Very Short Introductions)
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/b...
(If you're not interested in Russian politics, there are more than 750 other Very Short Introductions)
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/b...
Ice dancing: the rhythmic gymnastics of the Winter Olympics.
February 7, 2026 at 9:55 PM
Ice dancing: the rhythmic gymnastics of the Winter Olympics.
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
The shift in NBC's Olympic coverage model from broadcast to on-demand replays of particular events through the Peacock app is symptomatic of the atomization of formerly collective experience borne of hyperindividualism and demand for immediate satiation, splintering the commonweal. In this essay I w
February 7, 2026 at 6:01 PM
The shift in NBC's Olympic coverage model from broadcast to on-demand replays of particular events through the Peacock app is symptomatic of the atomization of formerly collective experience borne of hyperindividualism and demand for immediate satiation, splintering the commonweal. In this essay I w
Reposted by Daniel McDowell
Just checking in on American Bitcoin, the Eric Trump venture that is a leveraged bet on Bitcoin.
February 6, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Just checking in on American Bitcoin, the Eric Trump venture that is a leveraged bet on Bitcoin.
(I've got to CC @mcopelov.bsky.social on this one)
February 6, 2026 at 2:14 AM
(I've got to CC @mcopelov.bsky.social on this one)